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INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS for Civil Services Main Examinations
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About the Author
Pavneet Singh graduated with Honours in Political Science from Delhi University. He then followed it with an MBA from the International Management Institute in Belgium. Following the completion of his formal education, Pavneet sought to make a mark for himself in the field of the teaching for the UPSC Civil Services exam. He has taught various subjects, including Political Science and Current Affairs for almost a decade now. Since 2013, he has been associated with Vajiram and Ravi, India’s premier institute for the civil services exam, at New Delhi. His area of expertise here has been International Relations. It is this expertise, earned through years of voracious reading and enriched through interactions with thousands of aspirants, that he brings to this textbook.
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To my students and the future civil servants of India
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Preface AN INVESTMENT IN KNOWLEDGE PAYS THE BEST INTEREST. Since the time I was an aspirant for the civil services myself, I had to struggle for a proper textbook on International Relations (IR) for General Studies. Moreover, having been a student of Political Science and International Relations (PSIR) optional subject for civil services examinations, I keenly felt the crunch for a one-stop solution for IR. Our PSIR teachers used to tell us to read books written by former diplomats and some books meant for university exams, but these books were neither written exclusively for the civil services exam, nor covered the syllabus of the examination. I started teaching IR at Vajiram and Ravi, an institute for IAS examination in New Delhi, in 2013. In the first year, I taught 14,000 students. During my first year of teaching at Vajiram, I realised that the students continued to struggle for quality work on IR. As my teaching entered the further batches in 2014, and subsequently in 2015, 2016 and 2017, a lot of students at Vajiram asked me whether there was any book in the market for IR that could be helpful as a textbook for General Studies. Many students of PSIR also needed a textbook that could serve the purpose of their optional study. More importantly, I found that the students needed a book for IR that could provide them with backgrounds of diplomatic relations of India with every country. After intense discussions with my colleague and close friend, Brijendra Singh, who teaches Ethics, Integrity and Aptitude at Vajiram, I decided to work on a book of IR that could cater to not only the needs of students for General Studies but also act as a foundation for those with PSIR as optional subject. I began working on the monumental task of writing the book in December, 2015 and it finally came to an end in October 2017. In the process of having undertaken a work of this magnitude, I had interacted with 29 officers of the Indian Foreign Services (IFS) and eight senior officers of Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW). The views of these people and an insider’s knowledge about how India conducts its diplomacy with the world is reflected in various chapters of the book. I am now satisfied that the future civil services aspirants shall no longer have to struggle to find a textbook for IR for General Studies portion. This book also fulfills the gap for the students of PSIR as it also completely caters to all topics of the optional syllabus defined by the UPSC. I can assure the student that once the entire book is read, he/she will be able to understand the happenings in the world in a much better way. This book is bound to change the way they think. The most interesting feature of the book is that I have incorporated plenty of diagrams and case studies. Each diagram tries to summarise the core discussion at hand. These diagrams not only facilitate revision but can also be used directly in the mains examination while writing answers. Such diagrams will certainly fetch an aspirant additional marks in the paper, giving them an edge over their competitor. The case studies in the chapters add on to the existing understanding and are designed to provide the readers a completely fresh perspective on the dimension being discussed, along with providing applications for the policies that are under scrutiny. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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I have explained how to use the book optimally while reading for General Studies and for PSIR for civil services examination separately in the pages ahead.
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Note for Students of General Studies HOW TO READ THE BOOK As stated in the Preface, this work on International Relations (IR) is a mandatory subject for students preparing for the General Studies papers. The book acts as a foundation builder for any aspirant for civil services because the book serves as a primary source to prepare for Current Affairs of International importance (Item-1 of Part-A, Paper-1 General Studies, Preliminary examination) and International Relations (Item-17, 18, 19, 20 of Paper-III-Part-B-General Studies-II-Mains Examination). I suggest that all students read the book in the chronology in which it is set. All the chapters are interlinked to each other, and to enhance understanding and build critical linkages, a chronological reading is mandatory. I strongly urge the readers to read and internalise all the key terms related to International Relations mentioned in the Section A of Part A, Chapter 2. After the key terms are internalised, the readers should read the chapters in Section A, Part B. All the four chapters of this part are intended to give the students a panoramic glimpse of international world history from ancient to post-Cold War times. From my teaching experiences of IR at Vajiram, I have come to the conclusion that when students are given a proper understanding of international world history, their command over the subject drastically improves. The Section B of the book relates to theories of IR. This chapter is exclusively for the students of Political Science and International Relations (PSIR). However, for a better analytical grasp on the subject, I would urge the students of General Studies (who do not have PSIR as optional subject for civil services exam) to also read the six chapters in the section. This will give the readers a different perspective for the issues that may prove relevant for the exam and will be beneficial while writing answers in the mains examination. Each chapter in the book is meticulously written with an intention to enhance the understanding of the reader on the topic discussed. The chapters adopt multi-dimensional analysis paradigm and start with basic background and history of diplomatic relations and then covers different dimensions involved in diplomatic relations. This holistic coverage from background till the present day diplomacy enhances the overall understanding of the reader. Once the reading of the entire book is over, the student shall have complete command on the subject. The students would now be in a position to appreciate what is happening around them and analyse the events in the newspapers better. Before the exam, the diagrams in the book will help the reader keep the core ideas and points in their minds fresh to be reproduced in the answer sheets of UPSC Mains exam. After reading the book completely, a deep understanding of how India has dealt with each country in the world from 1947 till now, will be achieved. For example, if a student peruses the portion of the border issue between India and China and goes through the literature in the chapter carefully, which has analyzed the border problem since the British times till today, he/she would be able to appreciate why the border issue between India and China persists and what can be done to resolve the issues. Once the chapters are read, the reader can continue to read the newspapers and keep on building their notes further as all issues happening in the present times in the diplomacy will make sense since the entire background is exhaustively covered in each chapter. The book will thereby equip the students with https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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adequate knowledge for Current Affairs of International Importance (part of Preliminary exam syllabus of UPSC), International Relations (part of GS Mains exam paper) and Civil Services Personality test.
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Note for Political Science and International Relations Students HOW TO READ THE BOOK Having once been a student of Political Science and International Relations (PSIR) optional for civil services exam myself, I wish to clarify a few myths for the students of PSIR optionals. A lot of PSIR optional teachers misguide the students by asserting that the knowledge required to write the answers in the optional subject is the same as the knowledge required in the General Studies (GS) papers for the civil services exam. The optional and GS subjects are NOT the same. The knowledge of GS can act as a foundation for the optional (PSIR) but cannot substitute the knowledge. If the UPSC wanted to test an aspirant on the same knowledge of GS in the optional subject, then the entire exercise of having an optional, in the first place, would be self-defeating. I request the PSIR optional students to not proceed with this conviction, as this would mean that they would never be able to pass the optional subject exams, being unable to realise the difference. For example, lot of teachers insist that the Indian Polity section read for GS is the same as the Indian polity needed in the PSIR optional subject in the section of Indian Government and Politics. This is not the case. The basics and foundation of the Indian Polity that one reads in GS may be the same for PSIR optional subject, but if you write the same content you read in polity in both GS and PSIR examinations, you will never obtain high marks. The same is true for IR. A lot of teachers say that the IR of GS is the same as IR for PSIR. This is not the case. While writing the answer of IR, the student has to distinguish the answer from what an aspirant will write in the GS paper. In the optional, the student has to quote scholars, mention researches and use scholarly names while justifying each statement written in the IR part of the PSIR. Let me illustrate here. In GS, an aspirant, while writing an answer on India and China relations, will simply assert as follows: China is a country that is willing to cooperate with other countries today (as is visible in the recent Chinese attempts through their One Belt One Road initiative) as China is not yet a country powerful enough to alter the balance of power equations in the world politics. Thus, OBOR of China is the Chinese Ashwamedha. If a similar assertion is to be made by a student of PSIR optional subject to be written in IR, then this statement has to be written as follows Amitabh Mattoo is of the view that as the balance of power is presently not in favour of China; therefore, it prefers to cooperate (as is visible in the recent Chinese attempts through their One Belt One Road initiative). However, Mattoo asserts that the case would not always be as such because, as China increases its military capabilities (Ashley Tellis), it would use its military might in the future to subdue states in the region. This would be more so because China attaches great importance to the use of offensive force (Brahma Chellany) and as such, the use of offensive power is a part of the Chinese strategic culture (Gurmeet Kanwal). https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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As you can see in the statements written above, a student of PSIR firstly has to quote scholars, in this case, Amitabh Mattoo, Brahma Chellany, Ashley Tellis and Gurmeet Kanwal. Secondly, almost the same meaning is conveyed by the student of PSIR optional subject but with additional information about the Chinese strategic culture, which enhances the quality of the answer and shows to the examiner that the examinee has done an analytical and in-depth study of the PSIR from the optional point of view. Whenever students write IR answers in the PSIR optional subject, the aspirants have to take care of scholarly justification and analytical study. For the ease of PSIR students, I have written a chapter in Section-I of the book, entitled ‘India’s Grand Strategy.’ This is the chapter that will equip the students of PSIR optional subject with the requisite tools and information to write such answers as needed in the optional paper. For any clarifications, the readers can feel free to reach the author at Vajiram and Ravi IAS Institute, New Delhi. All suggestions are welcome at [emailprotected].
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Acknowledgements I would like to convey my deepest thanks to Mr P.S. Ravindran for giving me an opportunity to teach International Relations at Vajiram and Ravi, an institute for IAS exam preparation. I would also like to thank my teachers Mr. Mukul Pathak and Dr. Subhas Mahapatra at Vajiram, along with Mr Brijendra Singh for his constant support in planning and reviewing the chapters of the book. A special thanks to my idols ■ Shri Sanjeev Tripathi, IPS (Secretary, Research and Analysis Wing) ■ Shri Rakesh Bansal, IAS (Chairman, BSE, Madhya Pradesh) ■ Shri Y.K. Chaudhary, IRS (Chief Commissioner, Income Tax) ■ Shri Shishir Priyadarshi, IAS (India’s Representative to WTO, Geneva) A very special thanks to my former colleague, Mr. DKSP (name withheld for security reasons), from the R&AW, who is unleashing his inner Rajnikanth, somewhere deep inside Pakistan. I would like to thank Ms. Gargi Bhattacharya for editing the manuscript. Her energy infused new life into the project. Loads of thanks are due to all my friends and well-wishers, including Sonali Bansal, Snehil Tripathi, Prakhar Sharma, Hamid Khan, Imran Hussain, Ashok Kumar, Dipika Goyal (IFS), R. Elangovan, Neha Bhatia, Neeta Tripathi, Trinity Nagpal, Shiv Arpit Kothari, Raj Kumar and Sanjay Kumar Raju. Lovely Tripathi is owed a special mention for the reasons she knows well. I would like to thank my family members for their understanding and patience. A special thanks to Jasbir Singh, Moneesha Singh, K.J. Singh, Sarita Singh, Robinder Singh, Sasha Singh, Sukanya Singh, Shishir Deo, P.S. Kochar, Manjit Kochar, Devnita Bakshi, Amar, Param, Kaushik and Kavleen. —Pavneet singh
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Contents About the Author Preface Note for Students of General Studies Note for Political Science and International Relations Students Acknowledgements
SECTION A FOUNDATION OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS PART-A Chapter 1 A Conceptual Review of the Evolution and Relevance of the State in International Relations Why Study International Relations? How did the State Evolve? Chapter 2 Key Terms in International Relations Introduction Basic Terms of International Relations Additional Terms in International Relations Key Concepts and Terms Used in Nuclear Diplomacy Key Concepts in International Relations Advanced Terms and Concept in International Relations Terms Used in Economic Integration
PART-B Chapter 1 International Historical Context and World History for International Relations from Ancient Times till the Rise of Europe Introduction The Need for Historical Background in International Relations The Concept of International Society International History of the Ancient Times International History of Medieval Era Rise of Modern European International Society and the Nation States Chapter 2 International Historical Context and World History for International Relations from Modern Times till the Onset of the Cold War Situation of Europe in the Modern Times World War II (1939–1945) Chapter 3 International Historical Context and World History for https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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International Relations During the Cold War Post-War Settlement and the Institutionalisation of Cold War Collapse of USSR and the end of the Cold War Final Analysis of the Modern Period Chapter 4 International Historical Context and World History for International Relations in the World After the Cold War The World after Cold War End of Section Questions
SECTION B THEORIES AND APPROACHES IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Chapter 1 The Difference between Theory and Approach Theory and Approach
Chapter 2 Theory of Idealism Assumptions of Human Behaviour Foundations of Idealism in International Relations Origins of Idealism Core Principles and Forms Criticism of the School Chapter 3 Theory of Realism Core Concepts Idea of Human Behaviour in Realism Foundation of Realism in International Relations Origin of Realism Application of Realism in Real Life Conclusion Chapter 4 Theory of Liberalism Idea of Human Behaviour Foundation of Liberalism in International Relations and Classical Liberalism Type A – Interdependency Theory Type B – Institutional Liberal Mechanism Type C – Sociological Liberalism Type D – Republican Liberalism Real Life Case Study of Liberalism—US Invasion of Iraq Chapter 5 Theory of Functionalism Foundation of Functionalism School in International Relations Neo-Functionalism Real Life Case Study https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Chapter 6 Theory of Marxism Idea of Human Behaviour and Society End of Section Questions
SECTION C MAKING AND ORIGIN OF THE INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY Chapter 1 Indian Foreign Policy in Ancient Times and India’s Strategic Thought Introduction The Ramayana and Indian Foreign Policy The Arthashastra and Indian Foreign Policy Chapter 2 An Overview of Indian Foreign Policy from British Time till Nehru Introduction Making of Foreign Policy till 1947 Early Years of Independent Foreign Policy Final Analysis Chapter 3 Determinants and the Formation of Indian Foreign Policy
Chapter 4 Overview of Indian Foreign Policy from Nehru till the Present Introduction Foreign Policy of the Nehruvian Era Foreign Policy of Indira Gandhi Foreign Policy of Rajiv Gandhi Foreign Policy of P V Narasimha Rao Foreign Policy of I K Gujral Foreign Policy of Atal Bihari Vajpayee Foreign Policy of Manmohan Singh Foreign Policy of Narendra Modi Analysis of Major Shifts in the Foreign Policy of India from the Period of Cold War to the Post-Cold War World Final Analysis End of Section Questions
SECTION D INDIA AND ITS NEIGHBORHOOD RELATIONS Chapter 1 India and Neighbourhood Policy—Key Drivers Historical Analysis of India’s Engagement with the Neighbourhood India’s Neighbourhood First Policy Chapter 2 India and Bhutan Relations https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Historical Background India–Bhutan Treaty, 1949 India–Bhutan Commercial Diplomacy India–Bhutan Hydrodiplomacy India–Bhutan Security Cooperation China Factor in Indo–Bhutan Relations Analysis of Visit of the Indian PM to Bhutan, 2014 Chapter 3 India and Nepal Relations Historical Background Nepalese Struggle with Democracy India–Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship, 1950 India–Nepal Border Related Issues India–Nepal Hydropower Diplomacy India–Nepal Commercial Diplomacy China Factor in Indo–Nepal Relations Analysis of Indian Prime Ministerial Visit in 2014 to Nepal India and Nepali Constitution, 2015 and Madhesi Problem, 2016 Analysis of Visits from Nepal to India—September 2016, April 2017 and August 2017 Chapter 4 India and Bangladesh Relations Historical Background Defence Diplomacy Commercial Diplomacy Land Boundary Agreement Issue Maritime and Security Issues Teesta River Issue and River Disputes Energy Security Diplomacy Rise of Radicalisation in Bangladesh Analysis of the Indian Prime Minister’s Visit to Bangladesh—2015 Visit of Shiekh Hasina to India—2017 Chapter 5 India and Myanmar Relations Diplomatic Historical Background India–Myanmar Border Issues Extremism in Myanmar and Rohingya Issue Commercial Diplomacy Defence and Security Relations Recent Bilateral Visits Analysis of Indian PM’s Visit to Myanmar Analysis of the PM Visit to Myanmar—2017 https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Final Analysis Chapter 6 India and Sri Lanka Relations Historical Relations up to Cold War India–Sri Lanka Ties in the Post-Cold War Period Role of State Parties in India–Sri Lanka Relations Defence Diplomacy Commercial Diplomacy Kachchatheevu Island Issue The 13th Amendment Issue Indian Diplomacy and UNHRC Issue Fishermen Issue Analysis of PM Visit to Sri Lanka—March, 2015 and May, 2017 Chapter 7 India and Maldives Relations Historical Background Islamic Extremism and Maldives Strategic Importance of Maldives for India Commercial Diplomacy Chapter 8 India and Afghanistan Relations Historical Background of Afghanistan Origins of India and Afghanistan Relations Indian Interest in Afghanistan Afghanistan as an Outreach to Central Asia (CA) Indian Engagement Since 2001 Policy Options for India Post 2014 Analysis of Indian PM’s Visit to Afghanistan—December, 2015 and June, 2016 Role of Regional Players and Their Power Politics Heart of Asia Process Regional Players and Great Game End of Section Questions
SECTION E BILATERAL REGIONAL AND GLOBAL GROUPINGS AND AGREEMENTS INVOLVING INDIA AND/OR AFFECTING INDIA’S INTERESTS PART-A Chapter 1 India and Africa Policy—Key Drivers Historical Background Significance of Africa and Key Drivers of India’s Africa Policy India–Africa Trade and Commerce https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Diplomatic Issues Related to Security and Piracy Diplomatic Policy of China in Africa Future Policy for India Chapter 2 India and Mauritius Relations Basic Background Defence and Security Diplomacy Commercial Diplomacy Analysis of Prime Ministerial Visit to Mauritius, 2015 Chapter 3 India and Kenya Relations Historical Background Commercial Diplomacy Chapter 4 Indian and Mozambique Relations Historical Background Defence Diplomacy Commercial and Oil Diplomacy Analysis of the Visit of Mozambique’s President to India Analysis of Indian PM’s Visit to Mozambique, July 2016 Chapter 5 India and Nigeria Relations Historical Background Defence Diplomacy Commercial and Oil Diplomacy
Chapter 6 India and Angola Relations Historical Background Oil and Commercial Diplomacy Analysis of the Visit of Angolan Agriculture Minister to India Chapter 7 India and Seychelles Relations Historical Background Defence Diplomacy Analysis of Indian PM’s Visit to Seychelles—2015 Chapter 8 India and Namibia Relations Historical Background Civil Nuclear Cooperation and Developments During Indian President’s Visit— 2016 Chapter 9 India and Ghana and Cote D’ Ivoire Relations Historical Background Visit of Indian President—2016 Chapter 10 India and South Africa Relations https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Historical Background India and SA Diplomatic Relations Commercial Diplomacy Multilateral Diplomacy Analysis of Indian PM’s Visit—July, 2016 Chapter 11 India’s Outreach to Africa End of Part Questions
PART-B Chapter 1 India and Central Asia Policy—Key Drivers of the Relationship Background of Central Asia (CA) Part-A: From the Silk Road to the Great Game Part-B: From the Collapse of the Soviet Union to the Revival of the New Great Game Strategic Interest of India in CA Strategic Interests of Other Players in CA Challenges Faced by India Chapter 2 India and Kazakhastan Relations Basic Background Commercial and Oil Diplomacy Nuclear Cooperation and Technology Diplomacy Analysis of Indian Prime Minister’s Visit—2015 Future Areas of Cooperation Chapter 3 India and Kyrgyz Republic Relations Basic Background Commercial Diplomacy Defence Diplomacy Analysis of Indian Prime Minister Visit—2015 Future Area of Cooperation Chapter 4 India and Tajikistan Relations Basic Background Commercial Diplomacy Analysis of Indian Prime Minister Visit—2015 Chapter 5 India and Turkmenistan Relations Basic Background Commercial Diplomacy Analysis of Indian Prime Minister’s Visit—2015 Chapter 6 India and Uzbekistan Relations https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Basic Background Commercial Diplomacy Analysis of the Indian Prime Minister’s Visit—2015 Final Analysis End of Part Questions
PART-C Chapter 1 India and South East Asia Policy—Key Drivers Historical Analysis of Indian Policy Evolution and Analysis of Look East Policy (LEP) From Look East Policy to Act East Policy Analysis of Key Themes in India and SEA and EA Regional Relationships and Their Dimensions Chapter 2 India and Australia Relations Introduction Phase 1: 1947 to 1970 Phase 2: 1970 to End of Cold War Phase 3: Strategic Convergence Commercial Diplomacy Strategic Diplomacy Nuclear Diplomacy Education Diplomacy Analysis of PM’s Visit to Australia—2014 Visit of Malcolm Turnbull to India—2017 Chapter 3 India and Vietnam Relations Historical Background Strategic Diplomacy Commercial Diplomacy Oil Diplomacy and South China Sea Issue Defence Diplomacy Visit of Nguyễn Tấn Dũng (Vietnamese PM) to India—2014 Visit of the Indian PM to Vietnam—2016 Chapter 4 India and South Korea Relations Historical Background Trade Diplomacy India–South Korea CEPA Strategic Diplomacy Nuclear Diplomacy Analysis of PM’s Visit to and from Korea https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Chapter 5 India and North Korea Relations Historical Background Commercial Diplomacy Analysis of the Ri Su Visit to India—2015 Chapter 6 India and Fiji Relations Basic Background Analysis of PM’s Visit, November 2014 End of Part Questions
PART-D Chapter 1 India and Europe Policy—Key Drivers of the Relations Basic Background Areas of Cooperation Chapter 2 India and France Relations Historical Background till the Cold War India and France Since Cold War till Now India–France Commercial Diplomacy India–France Nuclear and Technology Cooperation India–France Defence Relationship Prime Minister’s Visit to Paris—2015 Conclusion of Rafale Deal Final Analysis Chapter 3 India and Germany Relations Introduction Science and Technology Analysis of Third and Fourth IGC (2015, 2017) and PM’s Visit to Germany— 2015 Chapter 4 India and Belgium Relations Basic Background Areas of Cooperation Commercial Diplomacy Analysis of PM’s Visit to Belgium—2016 Chapter 5 India and Switzerland Relations Basic Background Commercial Diplomacy Science and Technology Diplomacy Development Cooperation India, European Free Trade Agreement and Switzerland Analysis of PM’s Visit to Switzerland—2016 https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Swiss President’s Visit to India—August, 2017 End of Part Questions
PART-E Chapter 1 India and West Asia Policy—Key Drivers Historical Analysis of India’s Engagement with West Asia Look West Policy India and the Regional Security Situation in the Gulf Conclusion Chapter 2 India and Egypt Relations Historical Background of India–Egypt Relations Commercial Diplomacy Visit of Mohamed Morsi to India—2013 Analysis of the visit of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to India Chapter 3 India and Qatar Relations Historical Background of India–Qatar Relations Commercial Diplomacy Natural Gas Diplomacy and Recent Trends Defence Diplomacy Analysis of the Indian PM’s Visit to Qatar—June 2016 Chapter 4 India and Turkey Relations Basic Background Commercial Diplomacy Defence Diplomacy Visit of Indian PM—2015 Visit of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to India—2017 Chapter 5 India and United Arab Emirates Relations Historical Background Commercial Diplomacy Defence Diplomacy Analysis of the Visit of the Indian PM—2015 Chapter 6 India and Saudi Arabia Relations India and Saudi Arabia during the Cold War India and Saudi Arabia—Delhi and Riyadh Declarations Commercial Diplomacy Oil Diplomacy and Regional Security India–Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Analysis of the Indian PM’s Visit to Saudi Arabia—2016 https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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End of Part Questions
PART-F Chapter 1 India and Latin America Policy—Key Drivers Basic Outline Initial Phase During the Cold War Post-Cold War Period Final Analysis Chapter 2 India and Venezuela Relations Basic Background Commercial Diplomacy Hydrocarbon and Oil Diplomacy Crisis in Venezuela and the Oil Sector Chapter 3 India and Mexico Relations Basic Background Commercial Diplomacy Analysis of Bilateral Visits in 2016 Future Areas of Cooperation Chapter 4 India and Brazil Relations Basic Background Commercial Diplomacy Defence Diplomacy Analysis of Recent Meets
PART-G Chapter 1 The Concept of Middle Powers Chapter 2 India and the Great Britain Relations Basic Background Phase 1: 1947 to 1965 Phase 2: 1965 to 1991 Phase 3: From the End of the Cold War till the Present Analysis of the Indian PM’s Visit to Britain 2015 Theresa May’s Visit to India Chapter 3 India and Canada Relations Historical Background Commercial Diplomacy Nuclear Diplomacy Energy Diplomacy Education Diplomacy https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Analysis of the 2015 Visit of the Indian PM to Canada Chapter 4 India and Iran Relations History of Diplomatic Relations Strategic Diplomacy Pipeline Diplomacy India-Iran and Kashmir Question India and Iran Oil Diplomacy India and Iran Port Diplomacy Analysis of Indian PM’s Visit—2015 End of Part Questions
PART-H Chapter 1 India and Japan Relations Evolution of India’s Relationship with Japan Domestic Factors between India and Japan Strategic Re-balancing and Pivot to Asia Commercial Diplomacy India–Japan Defence Diplomacy India–Japan Nuclear Diplomacy India’s Act East Policy and Japan Indian PM’s Visit to Japan and other Bilateral Visits as Part of India–Japan Annual Summits Potential Concerns and Irritants Future Potential Areas of Cooperation Chapter 2 India and the USA Relations Relations During the Cold War India and US Defence Diplomacy India–US Education Diplomacy India and US Nuclear Diplomacy and Power Politics India and US Commercial Diplomacy India–US Visa Related Issues Analysis of Indian PM’s Visit to the US, from 2014 to 2017 Chapter 3 India and Israel Relations Introduction Period 1: 1922 to 1947: Conflicting Nationalism: The Gradual Formation of India’s Israel Policy Period 2: 1948 to 1956: Reality Check? Recognition of Israel and Limits of India-Israel Rapprochement Period 3: 1956 to 1974: Crises and Debates: Contestation and Revision of https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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India’s Israel Policy Period 4: 1984 to 1992: Setting the Stage for Change: From Estrangement to Engagement with Israel Period 5: 1992 to Present: From Prudent Rapprochement to the New Strategic Partnership and De-hyphenation—The Consolidation of India’s New Israel Policy Analysis of Visit of the Indian President to Israel and Palestine Visit of the President of Israel to India Chapter 4 India and Russia Relations Diplomatic History Diplomatic Relations upto India’s Independence Diplomatic Relations from 1947 to 1962 Diplomatic Relations During the Cold War Diplomatic Relations after the End of the Cold War Defence Diplomacy Nuclear and Energy Diplomacy Commercial Diplomacy India–Russia Relations in the 21st Century Analysis of Indian PM visit to Russia, 2015 End of Section Questions
PART-I Chapter 1 India and Pakistan Relations Historical Overview of the Relations and a Brief Understanding of Core Bilateral Diplomatic Issues Since 1947 till End of the Cold War Historical Overview of the Relations and a Brief Understanding of Core Bilateral Diplomatic Issues Since the end of the Cold War India–Pakistan and the Kashmir Dispute—An Analysis India and Pakistan and Nuclear Diplomacy Analysis Jihad as a Grand Strategy by Pakistan Other Disputes Between India and Pakistan Conclusion of the Relationship Chapter 2 India and China Relations Diplomatic History of India–China Relations Nuclear Diplomacy Between India–China Relations Basics of Tibet Issue in India–China Relations Border Issue in India–China Relations Analysis Pakistan Factor in Sino–India Relations https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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India and China—Commercial Diplomacy Analysis of Indian PM’s Visit to China—2015 India and China-Dolam Standoff (2017) Conclusion and Final Analysis End of Section Questions
SECTION F INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND GLOBAL GROUPINGS Chapter 1 United Nations—Envisaged Role and Actual Record; Specialised UN Agencies—Aims and Functioning; and the Debate on need of UN Reforms and Case of India Origin of the UN Basic Precepts of the UN Concept of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) India and R2P Diplomacy Key Elements in India’s Multilateral Negotiations in Foreign Policy India and the UN India’s Climate Change Diplomacy India and WTO Chapter 2 Other International and Regional Agencies and Forums— Analysis of their Structures and Mandates Introduction India and the International Criminal Court (ICC) India and the G–8 India and the G–77 India and the G–20 India and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) India and BRICS India and BIMSTEC India and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) India and the Nuclear Security Summit India and the Multilateral Export Control Regimes India and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) India and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) India and the Mekong Ganga Cooperation (MGC) India and the ASEAN India and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) India and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) India and World Bank and IMF https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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End of Section Questions
SECTION G INDIA AND SECURITY POLICY, CULTURAL DIPLOMACY, ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY AND NUCLEAR FOREIGN POLICY Chapter 1 India’s National Security Policy Chapter 2 India’s Foreign Policy and Terrorism
Chapter 3 Indian Foreign Policy, Aerospace and Outer Space Diplomacy Chapter 4 India and Science and Technology Diplomacy Chapter 5 India’s Maritime Foreign Policy Strategy Chapter 6 India’s Foreign Economic Policy Phase I: 1947 to 1966 Phase II: 1967 to 1975 Phase III: 1975 to 1990 Phase IV: 1990 till now Chapter 7 Oil Diplomacy and India’s Energy Diplomacy
Chapter 8 Indian Diaspora Introduction Concepts and Terms Historical Analysis of the Indian Diaspora Indian Diaspora and the World Ensuring the Security of the Indian Diaspora Recent Schemes, Initiatives and Programmes Chapter 9 India’s Nuclear Foreign Policy The Realist Foundation of India’s Nuclear Strategy Conclusion End of Section Questions
SECTION H INTERNATIONAL ISSUES AND CURRENT TRENDS Chapter 1 Issues in the Middle East Introduction Islam—Origin, Schools and Schism Islamic Ideologies—Wahabism, Salafism, Muslim Brotherhood, Baathism and Alawis Israel and Palestine Issue India’s Palestine Policy https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Arab Spring, Syrian Crisis and Libyan Crisis India’s Position on Arab Spring Kurdish Problem Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) Crisis in Yemen Turkey Coup, 2016 Qatar Crisis Crux of the Entire Middle East in Diagrams Chapter 2 Issues Related to China Introduction One Belt, One Road Initiative China–Pakistan Economic Corridor India’s Official Position on the OBOR and CPEC Diagram Explaining OBOR, CPEC and String of Pearls South China Sea Issues Chapter 3 Issues Related to Indian Foreign Policy Introduction Issue-1: India’s Policy Options for Afghanistan—2018, 2019 Issue-2: India’s Policy Options for Iran—2018, 2019 Issue-3: Nuclear Tests by North Korea and Indian Policy Issue-4: Newness in India’s China Policies and Other Issues Issue-5: Relevance of NAM in the 21st Century Chapter 4 Issues Related to Europe Issue 1: Russia–Pakistan Relation, Russia/China/Pakistan Axis and Russia in Afghanistan Post 2014—Impact Analysis Issue 2: Britain’s Exit (BREXIT) from European Union and its Impact on India and the World Issue 3: The Ukraine Crisis and the Great Power Rivalry Chapter 5 Issues Related to USA Issue 1: Obama’s Trans-Pacific-Partnership and Trump’s Policy Issue 2: US–Iran Nuclear Deal of 2015 and Regional Implications Issue 3: The US’s Pivot to Asia and Asian Rebalancing Initiative Chapter 6 Issues Related to Nuclear Diplomacy The Nuclear Matrix and the Nuclearisation of Asia Indian Concept of Disarmament Future Nuclear Strategy for India Chapter 7 Issues in Global Politics and International Foreign Policy Introduction https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Issues Related to War Issues Related to Terrorism Issues Related to Environment End of Section Questions
SECTION I INDIA’S GRAND STRATEGY AND CONCLUDING DEBATES IN FOREIGN POLICY Chapter 1 Challenges in the Indian Foreign Policy Introduction Section 1: Strategic Consequences of India’s Economic Performance on the Foreign Policy of India Section 2: Issues Related to Defence Diplomacy of India and National Security of India Section 3: Oceanic Rivalry in the Indo–Pacific and the Samudra Manthan Section 4: India’s Quest for a Global Power Status Chapter 2 India’s Grand Strategy Introduction Grand Strategy and China and India Relationship Grand Strategy and the USA and India Relationship Conclusion Grand Strategy and Afghanistan and India Grand Strategy and India and Iran Grand Strategy and India and Israel Grand Strategy and Africa and India Chapter 3 Foreign and Strategic Policy of India Introduction India and Asian Theatre from China to Central Asia India in International Institutions in Relation to the Great Powers India—Hard Power Tools and Internal Security Chapter 4 Concluding the Indian Foreign Policy Introduction Core Elements of Indian Diplomatic Style of Negotiation
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Section A Foundation of International Relations Part-A Chapter 1 A Conceptual Review of Evolution and Relevance of State in International Relations Chapter 2 Key Terms in International Relations
Part-B Chapter 1 International Historical Context and World History for International Relations from Ancient Times till Rise of Europe Chapter 2 International Historical Context and World History for International Relations from Modern Times till the Onset of Cold War Chapter 3 International Historical Context and World History for International Relations During the Cold War Chapter 4 International Historical Context and World History for International Relations in the World After the Cold War
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PART-A
1 CHAPTER
A Conceptual Review of the Evolution and Relevance of the State in International Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Why we need to study International Relations? Evolution of the state from the ancient times till the present
WHY STUDY INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS? The world in which we live is divided into nation states. All men, women and children inhabit some state or the other. No state lives in isolation. All states interact with each other. The interaction amongst the states has been occurring since ancient times. The nature of this interaction has certainly got transformed in the modern, globalised age. When the states interact, these interactions affect the domestic populations of these states. When all the states in the world interact, it creates an international state system. The interaction that happens amongst the state in the international state system creates historical, political and socio-economic consequences for the domestic populations. International Relations (hereafter IR)is the study of all these interactions and the subsequent consequences. However, the question that now arises in our minds is about what the concept of the state primarily entails? How did it evolve? What is the present situation of the conceptual state in a globalised world? The next section attempts to provide a brief glimpse of the evolution of the state. The subsequent chapters of Part-B of this section would help us to understand the deeper nuances of study of the state in an international historical context from ancient times till the age of globalisation. Let us turn first our attention to the gradual historical evolution of the state.
HOW DID THE STATE EVOLVE? The ‘State’ is a creation of man and not a creation of mother earth or nature, which makes it a man-made ‘construct’. Man was initially a hunter-gatherer. He was leading a nomadic life. Over a period of time, as man developed techniques of agriculture and learned domestication of animals, he decided to do away with his nomadic life in favour of a settled life. As he settled in an area, the population in that patch of land began to grow. It https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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gradually transformed into a microcosmic society. As this mini-society got established at one place, so it did in other areas. Initially, a majority of these societies got established near rivers or other water sources. This is also one reason why we had a majority of all ancient civilisations established near rivers. Our own Indus Valley civilisation, which flourished on the banks of the Indus river, is testimony to the fact. As the societal groups enlarged over a period of time, there was felt a need to establish a code of conduct for the members of the society to impose a form of order on the chaotic tribes. Once the rules of societal interactions were established, further need arose to create an authority to enforce these rules. Initially, it saw its manifestation in the form of conferring the authority on the most elder people but, this gradually shifted to the strongest man amongst the group. Over a period of time, a need was also felt to protect the group of persons, now in the form of a settlement, from attacks by members of the other groups. This manifested not only in the physical protection of people but also the land occupied. Thus, protection emerged as the most rudimentary reason of political formations, headed by a strong chief. These groups from one place interacted with other groups situated some distances away as well. The nature of this interaction often varied. The interaction at times was to subjugate the other area and enhance one’s own area or, at times, it was to achieve mutual coexistence. The protector of the area and its population by now was called the king and the king was thought to possess divine powers during these ancient times. In the ancient times, there was a complete absence of the concept of sovereignty. Yet, in the absence of the state sovereignty we have seen ancient empires flourish. One of the very successful ancient empires was the Greek city state system. It had a common language and religion. The Greeks later became subjects of the Romans. During Roman times, the concept of authority got significantly transformed. A new authority of the papacy (Pope) emerged along with the Emperor. Medieval society got established in the form of feudalism. The feudal medieval order was effectively broken down with the coming of the Renaissance and Reformation which ultimately culminated in the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 which created the first ever modern nation states based on the idea of sovereignty. This was followed by geographical discoveries, enlightenment, age of reason and imperialism. The mercantilism that emerged during this period along with industrial revolution and colonisation led the world ultimately to the World War–I. What is worth noting is that, since the Peace of Westphalia and emergence of Westphalian nation state, the kings in command or monarchs not only became absolute in their power but also went on to shrug off Papal authority over the state. It is in reality this transformation in the governance of the state that gave birth to modern statecraft. The nation states began to flourish under the rule of these monarchs. The new-found growth led to an urge to expand and indulge in practices like imperialism and colonialism. The imperialist world learnt its hard lesson during the World War I, but the settlement reached through the infamous Treaty of Versailles post-World War I also sowed the seeds for the next total war—the World War II. The period post world war-II witnessed the rise of super powers—the USA and the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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USSR—with their mutual mistrust leading the world into an extended Cold War period. The end of communism and the eventual collapse of the USSR in 1989 led to the rise of unipolarity, with the USA emerging as the surviving power bloc. This period of unipolarity saw a subsequent rise of a new force in the world called globalisation. As the states got affected by globalisation, many scholars in the twenty first century began to advocate that the relevance of state in a globalised world would become redundant. However, this was not the truth as, though, undoubtedly, globalisation has (and continues to) affect the states, it has only transformed the nature of the states in terms of their being demonstrators of absolute power in the world. The role of the state remains intact even in a globalised economy as globalisation can flourish only with rule of law and a stable social order which can only be guaranteed by the instrument called the state. Please keep the meanings of the three following terminologies in mind throughout your reading of the book: ■ State – It is a political association that has a defined territory with a permanent population to be governed by a government which is sovereign. ■ Sovereignty – It means a situation of an absence of an authority higher than the state. It means state has the freedom to take independent decisions in domestic and international affairs without being answerable to any authority above it. ■ Security – It means a situation of an absence of any threat. Security at a micro level is called human security, at state level is called national security and at a global level is called international security.
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2 CHAPTER
Key Terms in International Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Basic terms in International Relations Key concepts and terms used in Nuclear Diplomacy Advanced terms and concepts in International Relations Terms used in economic integration
INTRODUCTION The purpose of this chapter is to provide the readers with an authoritative overview of terms and concepts in international relations. This chapter acts as a foundation as well as the entry point to the understanding of the rest of the book. I strongly urge the readers to read each and every term in this chapter carefully before proceeding to read the subsequent chapters of the book.
BASIC TERMS OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Anti-ballistic Missile: It is a system with two components—namely a radar and an interceptor missile. An anti-ballistic missile protects or defends a designated target against an incoming missile from an enemy territory. Accidental War: There are two meanings to this term. Firstly, it may be used to define a war that may have resulted from a technical malfunction or mishap. In this case, it is unintentional and not deliberate. Secondly, it may be caused due to perceptions misconstrued by a state where it fails to read a particular situation correctly and responds with violence. Action–Reaction: This term is mostly used in conflict analyses and game theory. Lewis Fry Richardson, a scholar who theorized the arms race, explained the concept in the Richardson process. To easily understand this concept, we can take example of two states, A and B. Let’s say, for instance, that State B increases its military capability. Perceiving this as a threat, State A reacts by increasing own military expenditure. The reaction by State A is perceived by State B differently. State B feels that increased military expenditure by State A has reduced the margins of safety of State B, and thus State B responds to it, in turn, by increasing its own arms budget. Thus, an action leads to a reaction. Actor: In international relations, any entity which plays an identifiable role or is a stakeholder is termed as an actor. It is a very broad term which is used to signify https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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personalities, organizations, states, institutions, and so forth. Adjudication: Adjudication is a process of using international law to settle international disputes by referring them to a court of law. The League of Nations, after the World War– I, established the Permanent Court of International Justice, which was succeeded by International Court of Justice in 1945. Administered Territory: This concept was advocated by Jan Smuts and George Louis Beer under Article XXII of the covenant of the League of Nations to control and administer the colonial possessions of Germany in Africa, Pacific and Turkey in the Middle East. It was a system that did not involve direct annexation and traditional imperialism. The ‘responsible’ states in ‘sacred trust’ of the League of Nations would provide guidance and support to powers incapable of self-governing themselves. The Permanent Mandates Commission established managed the entire process. Frederick Samuel North edge, in his book, The League of Nations: Its Life and Times (1986), says that the mandate system was the first ever experiment in the world with international control on dependent territories. AIC (Advanced Industrial Countries): The Brandt Report of 1980 used this term to refer to countries of North America, Western Europe, Japan and Australia. The UN also uses the same abbreviation and it refers basically to all developed countries. Alliance: When two or more actors formally sign an agreement to cooperate mutually in security related issues, it is called an alliance. Normally, alliances are defence pacts that operate during the situations of war. Alliances have been most visible during the period of Cold War, but in the post Cold War period today, as explained by Christensen and Snyder, strong alliances would be difficult to envisage given the multipolarity of global politics. Arbitration: In arbitration, the two conflicting parties argue to submit their difference to a third party for settlement. The third party undertaking arbitration announces a binding decision in the process of settling the disputes. Arms Control: It is an exercise where an actor advocates restraint in acquiring, deploying and using military capabilities. The assumption underlying arms control is based on deterrence policies. But arms control theorists, at an ideological level, differ from theorists advocating disarmament. Disarmament scholars advocate a world without weapons or a situation where the threat of using force reduces substantially. The scholars of arms control on the other hand work along the existing structure.
Armistice: It is an opportunity between two or more conflicting states to suspend https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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hostilities and opt for a peaceful settlement. It is never unilateral but bilateral, and is a temporary declaration of peace, providing an opportunity to the conflicting states to terminate the state of war. It helps in maintaining a status quo. From 1949 to 1978, there was armistice between Arabs and Israel (explained in the chapter on the issues in the Middle East-Section-H-Chapter-1). Asian Tigers: It is a term applied to certain states in Asia that had experienced aggressive economic growth within a short span of time. These Asian economies have become a new standard for economic liberalism in the recent times. The five Asian Tigers are Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia in this context are known as Tiger Cubs while Hong Kong and China are collectively also called Asian Dragons. Asylum: The word ‘asylum’ means refuge. It is a quasi-legal process where a national of another state gets protection from a state for sanctuary. As per the article 14 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights of 1948, the rights of asylum are vested in a state and not with the individuals. Autonomy: It is a term very frequently used in political discourse. The liberal meaning of autonomy is self-government. The Treaty of Westphalia, 1648, marked the origin of the concept of the autonomy of states. It is stated that the beginning of the concept of autonomy also introduced the concept of anarchy amongst states in the international system. Anarchy: The etymology of this term derives from a Greek word which implies ‘without a ruler.’ In day to day life, it is used as a term to signify chaos and lawlessness such as it happens when there exists a situation of no stable government or monarchy to maintain peace. Normally, the term, in political discourse, is used when there is some revolutionary upheaval or sociopolitical turbulence. In international relations, anarchy is used specifically to signify international politics where no state has any absolute control on the overall system. The first political philosopher who described international relations as anarchical was Thomas Hobbes. The realist scholars have used the concept of anarchy while formulating their theories. Appeasement: It is a term which is based on an assumption that there would be no war if the demands of an aggressive state are met. Balkanization: The term was used by diplomats in later nineteenth century period to delineate the policy of Russia towards the states of Balkan Peninsula. Balkan is a Turkish derivative for forested mountains. It is used as a term to describe fragmentation of a region into independent but mutually hostile power centers. This term was used on erstwhile Ottoman Empire States of Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania and Yugoslavia. Bases: In the context of international relations, it is a term that signifies a point of military supply and troop concentration. Bases are strategically located and during the Cold War, both the US and the USSR established points of troop concentration in the territory of their allies. Balance of Power (BOP): This term has developed no clear meaning due to multiple interpretations available. However, balance of power as a concept in international relations was used from the sixteenth century to early twentieth century, to describe an instrument https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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of policy to prevent power dominance. The European state system from 1815 to 1914 was an example of the use of BOP as an instrument to curb the quest for hegemonic ambitions. Hedley Bull asserted that BOP has prevented the formation of a universal empire through conquest. As per Bull, BOP has not only protected the independence of discrete states but has also facilitated the development of institutions like diplomacy and greater power management. As per BOP, the world in which we live in is a system where countries exist in a perfect equilibrium. The BOP theory says that the equilibrium of the system can be disturbed if a state in the system dramatically increases its power. This would compel other state in the system to form alliances or increase their own powers to reestablish balance in the system which had been disturbed in the first place due to the increase of power by one state. A term derived from BOP is Balance of Terror. In Balance of Terror, one state actor credibly threatens another state actor with destruction. During the Cold War, the US and the USSR often used the term in specific references to nuclear deterrence. Choke Points: In context of naval diplomacy, it is a geopolitical term used to signify an international strait whose control could potentially affect commercial transit. Civil War: A civil war is an internal state of violence within a nation where two or more factions fight to take over control of the political or legal apparatus of the state. There are three broad reasons as to why a civil war may happen. A civil war could happen to end colonialism; break away from a state and lastly, to achieve a reunion of separated states. In case of colonialism, there could be a civil war when some people in a colony favour an end to colonialism while a significant body intends to support colonial rule for the fear that the anticolonial insurgents could establish a political and an economic order that may affect those people. The idea to secede away from a state may also lead to a civil war. In this case, it is an assertion of nationalism by ethnically homogenous people to achieve self-determination. The civil wars driven by a desire to seek reunion too are nationalistic in character. At the diplomatic level, at times there would be diplomatic support to insurgents to help them establish a government in exile. There could be military intervention by third party states when they engage by sending their own forces in case of a war. A case in point is that of India intervening in East Pakistan (Bangladesh) Muktijuddho (War of Independence) of 1971. Ironically, the UN has failed to evolve an effective mechanism to prevent third partly states to intervene in situations of civil war. Cold War: The term was coined by HB Scope, who was an American journalist. Walter Lipmann popularised the term, and stated that Cold War describes a situation where there is no war, yet no peace. It is a term that signified the global ideological tensions in the world created in the aftermath of the World War II by the US and the Soviet Union.
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Colonialism: Colonialism is a form of imperialism where one country tries to control the politics and economy of another country. A country is made into a colony by a mother country, whereby the territory that gets colonised becomes a subordinate and servile country. The period from fifteenth to nineteenth century saw Portugal, British, France, Holland and Spain colonising the Americas, Asia and Africa. In the present context, noncolonialism is a term used to signify domination by developed countries of post colonial independent states. Similarly, internal colonialism as a term is used when a peripheral region is treated as a subordinate by an economically dominant segment of the state. For example, central Asian Republics were victims of internal colonialism post disintegration of the erstwhile Soviet Union. A process where a colony undertakes independence from a colonial power is called decolonisation. After the World War II, the world witnessed a surge of states gaining independence from colonial rulers and a term called the ‘Third World’ began to be used as a collective expression for these new states. Deterrence: In a simplistic sense, deterrence means a situation where a person A may seek a certain behaviour from person B. If person B does not display the desired behaviour or tries to deviate from the desired behaviour, then person A can deter person B from behaving in an unacceptable manner by threatening person B with punishment. The basic idea of deterrence is to issue a threat to prevent any undesirable behaviour from another state. Deterrence is a special form of a power relationship where an imposer may make a threat upon a target whose behaviour the impostor wishes to oppose. Thus, deterrence is all about negative sanctions. Disarmament: Disarmament is a process to reduce, remove and eliminate certain weapon systems identified by a state. It is normally used in the context of nuclear weapons. Once the process of disarmament is complete, it leads to an establishment of a completely disarmed world. Exile: A situation where a person or group of persons is banished from one place to another. Though it is mostly viewed as a punishment, it could be either self-imposed or enforced. Extradition: It is a legal term that signifies a situation or a process where one state hands over a fugitive to another state. To facilitate the transfer of persons, an extradition treaty is required. In the case of an absence of an extradition treaty, there is no duty upon a state under the international law to undertake extradition. It is normally used for transfer of criminals who seek refuge in a state other than the one where they happened to commit the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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offence. Failed Nation States: During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union extended aid and support to other states with an intention to contain each other. As the Cold War ended, the term called failed nation state began to emerge and it signifies those states that could not survive without an aid.
Foreign Aid: It is a tool of economic diplomacy where the donor state may use monetary instrument to achieve certain policy goals within the recipient state. The most important factor in this scenario is the capability that the donor state needs to possess to assert economic influence on the recipient state. The capabilities are often measured as surplus national resource. At times, foreign aid could be used as a power instrument when it is used by a state actor to reward a behaviour of another state after removal of sanctions. Free Trade (related to laissez-faire): It is a form of trading system which involves two actors where the trade of goods happens between the two without any restrictions. It indicates the abstention by governments from interfering in the workings of the free market. Any form of free trade promotes competition and efficiency and therefore is beneficial from an economic point of view. Free trade not only benefits a trader but also the consumers because traders through free trade can access foreign markets while the consumers can get access to imported goods. Thus, free trade promotes growth of interdependence amongst the actors. When actors establish a free trade area, they abolish the tariffs on identified goods amongst themselves and establish a free trade pact which then becomes a prerequisite for the establishment of a customs union. Genocide: Genocide means the systematic extermination or mass killings of specific groups of people. Normally, genocide is much broader than simple mass killings and may involve acts like starvation, forced resettlement and even mass deportations, as in case of the Holocaust, which wiped out a significant ratio of European Jews. In December, 1948, the UN General Assembly has passed a Genocide Convention and it came into force in January, 1951. As per the second article of the genocide convention, genocide means destruction in whole or in part, of a national, ethical, racial or religious group. Geopolitics: Geopolitics is a method of undertaking foreign policy analysis which tries to explain the political behavior of the state on the basis of the use of geographical variables. Geopolitics is a dynamic concept. A country may not be as geopolitically important today but may become so in future. For example, since the end of the World War II, the state of West Asia, for instance, Saudi Arabia, has been geopolitically important due to the fact that it possessed an extremely important resource in the form of oil and is located near the sea, allowing for easy trade of oil. However, as the world in the twenty first century is looking for cleaner and greener fuels and alternatives to oil, the countries possessing https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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natural gas and access to sea may become more geopolitically important in the future. Thus, the world is likely to see a decline of geopolitical significance of Saudi Arabia while Iran and Russia, which are in possession of natural gas, are likely to become geopolitically important in the near future. Great Powers: This term is used in the theory of realism by realist scholars and it signifies the ranking of the global states in terms of their economic and military capabilities they possess. The hierarchy that is established on the basis of capabilities is as follows:
The term called ‘great powers’ found its first written mention in the Treaty of Chaumont in 1817, as, by the Congress of Vienna in 1815, Austria, Britain, France, Prussia and Russia were granted the great power status for the first time. In 1944, a foreign policy and IR scholar named William Thornton Rickert Fox replaced the term ‘great powers’ with ‘superpowers’ and since then, the US, Britain, France, Russia and China have been given the status of superpowers. Gunboat Diplomacy: It is a term that has been used with respect to foreign policy since the nineteenth century. Its first mention was seen in the British foreign policy where the British navy would often be dispatched in a particular region to coerce a state or a ruler to pay debts. The British even dispatched naval squadrons to enforce punishments and restore order. Thus, over a period of time, gunboat diplomacy as a term came to be used for naval ships which are used for signalling intentions to an adversary state and are used for power projection. Hegemony: Hegemony in the international system is the political, economic, or military predominance or control of one state over others. A state with adequate capabilities is called a hegemonic power in relationship to which the other states in the system define their relationship. When other states define their relationship with a hegemonic power, they could display a behaviour of opposition, display indifference, or even practise acquiescence with the hegemonic state. Hot Pursuit: It is a legal doctrine mostly associated with maritime law. Nowadays, it is used to cover activities on land where one state may reserve the right to pursue an offender https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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outside its own territorial limits in national interest. In hot pursuit, the authorised agents of a state begin the action in the jurisdiction of the violated party and engage in the operation till the offender is broken off. Immigration: It involves the movement of people from (one place to the other) from one state to another state in search of better employment and living conditions. It is different from a refugee wave. In immigration, the immigrant moves voluntarily rather than having been forced or evicted due to political or natural circumstances, which is the case with a refugee. In some countries, the immigrants do pose a cultural threat to the receiving state due to differences in their ideologies and beliefs. Immigrants do play an important economic role in a society as they send remittances back to their home state. Junta: Junta means an administrative council or a ruling committee. In 1808, in opposition to the rule of Napoleon, during the Peninsula war, such councils were formed to signify a military government. Military–Industrial Complex (MIC): The term was used by the US president Dwight Eisenhower in 1961 in his farewell speech. It was a term used during the Cold War times to establish a link between economic activity and military expenditure. The economic definition of MIC is that a state has consensus about the fact that if it undertakes military expenditure, it would lead to the generation of employment, which would, in turn, boost the economy. Thus, military expenditure is linked to employment generation. During the entire Cold War period, MIC was a phrase that signified the relationship between the government and defense manufacturers. Multipolarity: Multipolarity identifies an international system with multiple poles or power actors. The first ever mention of the term dates back to the European system of the balance of power. However, the term has become more popular since the end of the Cold War and it refers to capabilities or power potentials of multiple actors to assert dominance in the international system. The US, Japan and the European Union in the post Cold War era are referred to as poles while India is perceived to be a near-polar power. Paradiplomacy: In 1990, an American scholar named John Kincaid proposed the concept of paradiplomacy. If we try to define paradiplomacy in the Indian context, then it is a concept where we analyse and study the role played by a local government or a state government to enhance diplomatic ties with countries in the neighborhood. Paradiplomacy can allow a state to promote trade, culture, flow of economic ideas, and even outsource business and so on. In the recent times, paradiplomacy has been activated by India between India’s north eastern states and Bangladesh when Sheikh Hasina visited India in 2017. Revolution: A revolution means a sudden change in the system of governance of a state through violence. A revolution also signifies a change in the value system of the state. For the Marxist and Leninists, a revolution involves a socio-economic change in the society. Scholars like Edward Hallett Carr and Martin Wight feel that revolutions often cause instability and thus are not conducive to maintain order in the system. Sphere of Influence: It refers to a situation where an outside state exercises particular economic or military exclusiveness over another region. In the context of a sphere of influence, there is no sovereign control over the other territory. When one state exercises https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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its sphere of influence over another state, it restricts the rights of the other power to exercise influence and also imposes limitations on the autonomy of states on which influence is exercised. Tariffs: A tax on imports is called tariff. It is an important tool of raising revenue; however, at times, countries also use the system of tariffs for protectionism. Treaty and Conventions: A treaty is a written agreement which is signed by countries or international organisations, making it obligatory for the signatory parties to accept certain rules that have been consensually agreed upon in the contract. On signature of the treaty, the signatory parties agree to follow the written obligations while agreeing to accept liabilities on failure to follow said obligations. The treaties are governed through the Vienna Convention (1969), which is also called the laws of treaties or the treaty of treaties. One important thing to remember is that when a state signs a treaty, it remains a party to the treaty even if domestically, after signing a treaty, the state government changes. On the other hand, a convention is a special treaty that concludes the discussion of an issue of global significance leading to the creation of an agreement to be ratified by the member states discussing the global issue. For instance, climate change and its consequences are discussed in conventions attended by several global member states.
Protocol: It is also a kind of a treaty but a specialised one as it allows amendments and alterations in the main text of the treaty.
Signature and Ratification of Treaties: If a state undertakes a signature to a treaty it means that the state has an interest in following the points mentioned in the treaty. Signature is a legal process but is of two types—simple signature and definitive signature. In a simple signature, a state is not bound to follow the points of the treaty until it ratifies the treaty. Thus, it means that a simple signature involves no obligation on the state as the state reserves the option of putting the treaty before the domestic national parliament allowing its people to have a say in the external matters of the state. On the other hand, in a definitive signature of a treaty, the state expresses its willingness to be bound by all the points of the treaty without the need for ratification of the treaty. When a state ratifies a treaty, it gives its consent to be bound by the treaty. In the ratification of a treaty, the state agrees to get the treaty approved by its national parliament and also indicates its willingness to be bound to other contracting parties in the treaty. In ratification, it gives the national parliament of state a much bigger role to direct state’s external affairs. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Veto: Veto means an ability or power to stop an undesirable outcome unilaterally. A state needs to possess capabilities to exercise veto.
ADDITIONAL TERMS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Asia Pacific and Indo-Pacific: The term Asia Pacific encompasses Oceania, North-EastAsia and South-East-Asia. Asia-Pacific is not a security term but an economic concept used to describe the emerging market economies of South-East and East-Asia. On the other hand, Indo-Pacific is an evolving concept capturing the region from East-Africa to Western Pacific and is a strategic-cum-economic conception with special focus on sea lanes of communication. Comprehensive National Power (CNP): Every country has to undertake some actions internationally. Such actions are based upon the strategic objectives a country may set. To achieve such actions as part of strategic objectives of state, it mobilises and utilises the strategic resources at its disposal. The capacity to mobilise these resources to achieve such actions set by the strategic objectives of a country is called its CNP. When we say mobilisation of ‘strategic resources’, there is an understanding that these resources could range from economic and military strength to diplomatic strength to national resources and so forth. Hyphenation and Dehyphenation: Hyphenation is looking at two countries together when referring to their bilateral relationship. USA used the policy of hyphenation between India and Pakistan while building relationships with the two during cold war. Let us assume that there are three states A, B and C. In hyphenation, lets say A has hyphenated state B and C. Now, if A augments the capacities of B, because of hyphenation, A will have to factor out its impact on state C. One can understand the above illustration better by replacing state A with USA and States B and C with India and Pakistan. The governments of USA, from Bush to Trump, have finally led to dehyphenation of India and Pakistan. This has allowed the USA to augment military and strategic capabilities of India without worrying about its impact and reaction from Pakistan. Joint Naval Exercises: These are exercises between the navies of two friendly states primarily organised to enhance join operational skills and doctrinal learning. Such exercises can also be multilateral (MILAN exercise, for example) and are usually themebased. Joint Naval Patrolling: To address maritime challenges, two countries may resort to a cooperative deployment of their navies. These arrangements could be made for prevention of piracy, tackle illegal smuggling, illegal fishing and so on. Natural Ally and Strategic Partners: Natural allies are states sharing common cultural, political, economic and historical values with each other, as, for instance, the USA and https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Britain did in the Second World War. On the other hand, if two countries don’t share the values as natural allies, but they witness a similar security threat, to mitigate the same, the two countries may come together and pool their resources, and then the two could become strategic partners but not natural allies, for example, USA and USSR in world war against a common security threat from fascists. (Indian concept of explanation, See Section-E, Part-D, Chapter 3) Non-Traditional Security Threats: These threats are very different from traditional security threats which primarily encompass environmental, economic and societal threats. Some of the prominent non-traditional security threats include migration, poverty, climate change, terrorism and Responsibility To Protect etc. Nuclear Safety and Nuclear Security: Nuclear safety is concerned with safeguarding civilian nuclear infrastructure while nuclear security is concerned with ensuring that nuclear materials, technology and weapons do not fall into the hands of non-state actors or terrorists. The then president of USA, Barack Obama, in 2009, initiated the Prague Summit or Nuclear Security Summit to raise issues related to nuclear security. India has ratified the convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials since 2005 and has been a party to the International Convention for Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism. Overt and Covert: When a country does something outright, in the open, it is called as an overt decision. India tested nuclear weapons in 1998 and overtly became a nuclear weapons state. Covert are actions done undercover and in a hidden manner. For instance, the RAW uses covert operations to keep Pakistan under check. Research and Analysis Wing (RAW): During the British period in India, they created an organisation to gather external and domestic intelligence. This organisation was called the Intelligence Bureau (IB). After India became independent, the IB continued to gather external intelligence for India. After the defeat of India in the Sino-Indian conflict in 1962, a need was felt to have a separate organisation for external intelligence. During the Indira Gandhi government, in 1968, the separate agency called RAW was finally created with Rameshwar Nath Kao as its first chief. The RAW is a wing under the cabinet secretariat and is directly answerable to the Prime Minister. One of the important responsibilities of the RAW is to carry out covert operations with an intention to safeguard the national interests of India. The personnel of RAW are not called agents but research officers. RAW has its own service called RAW Allied Services (RAS). The RAW has successfully undertaken campaigns related to psychological warfare, subversion, sabotage and assassinations. In the chapters ahead in the book, we shall study some of the core operations of RAW. Strategic Depth: Let us suppose that there are three hypothetical states—A, B and C. Strategic depth is a policy whereby state A may try to enhance its influence in state B to the extent that it emerges in a position to prevent the state C to exercise political influence in the state B. For instance, Pakistan has enhanced its presence in Afghanistan to ensure that there is a favourable regime in Afghanistan since a regime favourable to Pakistan in Afghanistan will allow Pakistan to limit the political influence of India in Afghanistan. Thus, Pakistan pursues a policy of strategic depth against India in Afghanistan. Strategic Restraint: It is a term used for conflict resolution where a state would not use https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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force to resolve conflicts but deploy diplomatic and psychological options to attain objectives instead. In a policy of strategic restraint, a state prefers not to use violence and force to resolve crises and disputes. An alternative term to strategic restraint is resolve where the state may resort to using force as an option in situation of crises. As we shall see in the subsequent chapters ahead, India uses a mixture of both resolve and restraint in its foreign policy towards hostile states. Tactical and Strategic Nuclear Warheads: Tactical nuclear warheads are short or small yield nuclear warheads which are used immediately in proximate locations while strategic nuclear warheads are long range nuclear warheads having capability of intercontinental ballistic strikes. Thucydides Trap: A term used to signify a situation where a rising power establishes fear in an established power, leading to a conflict. War and Conflict: When two countries have a disagreement which is not resolved, there could be tensions. Such tensions could manifest as a fight by one aggrieved party against the other. Such a fight or violence is called a conflict. Between two countries, if there is a violent spat or a disagreement on any issue, it may lead to a conflict. The conflicts have to be resolved through dialogue and negotiations to prevent a full-scale war. A war is a type of a conflict where the two countries may indulge in violence when one party officially declares and discloses the need to resort to violence to protect its sovereignty, rights and existence. The 1962 Indo-China disagreement over the border question led to the SinoIndian conflict. Neither side ‘declared’ war, and consequently, 1962 is called a conflict. On the other hand, in 1971, India declared war on Pakistan after Indian base was attacked by Pakistan.
KEY CONCEPTS AND TERMS USED IN NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY The 123 Agreement: It refers to the section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act, 1954 under which the US undertakes nuclear commerce with various countries. The US used this section to enter into agreements with various countries pertaining to nuclear cooperation. In 1963, India and the US had signed the 123 agreement for Tarapur Atomic Power Station. The US, after passing the Hyde Act in 2006, signed a 123 agreement with India in July 2007, thereby making an exception by allowing the US to permit nuclear commerce with India despite India being a non-signatory to the NPT. After the NSG specific waiver (explained in detail in the chapter of India-US relationship in the later part of the book), the 123 agreement was approved by both the houses of the US congress, thereby enabling the ‘US-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Non-Proliferation Enhancement Act.’ Additional Protocol: Additional protocols are basically safeguard agreements. After it was revealed that Iraq had violated the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, a need was felt to have extra safeguards. Under the old IAEA safeguards, all NPT signatories would specify their nuclear sites and IAEA would carry out inspections in the specified sites. Thus, IAEA, under the old safeguards, could only carry out inspection for unauthorised activities only at designated or specified sites declared by a country. This basically left an option open for states to carry out covert nuclear programmes. Thus, in 1993, the IAEA designed Additional Protocols (AP) to tighten the existing safeguarding https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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regime. But the AP was kept voluntary for a state. India, as part of the Indo-US nuclear deal, signed the AP with IAEA. Indian specific Additional Protocols (AP) do not give IAEA the right to hinder or interfere with activities which are outside the scope of India’s safeguard agreements, thus recognising that India reserves a right to a military nuclear program outside IAEA agreement. Atomic Energy Act, 1962: It was in 1948 that India passed its first atomic legislation to establish a framework to manage the Indian nuclear sector. The Atomic Energy Act, 1948, modelled on the British Atomic Energy Act, established the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) as the main regulatory body. In 1962, the Atomic Energy Act 1948 was superseded with a new Atomic Energy Act of 1962. Both the legislations have only centralised the Indian State Control over nuclear related activities.
Atoms for Peace: It was a programme which had its origin in the speech of US President Dwight Eisenhower at the UN General Assembly in 1953. In the speech, Eisenhower not only highlighted the dangers of nuclear weapons but also proposed peaceful use of nuclear technology. During the Cold War, the US began to use the programme to win allies in the global order. The US declassified nuclear documents and began to transfer nuclear technology to other states for peaceful use. India, Pakistan and Iran took advantage of the declassified knowledge to build up peaceful nuclear programmes. Civil Nuclear Liability Act: The Indian Parliament, in August 2010, passed the Civilian Liability for Nuclear Damages Act (CLNDA). The legislation is important because India, after the signing of the Indo-US nuclear deal, would have to buy nuclear technologies from various countries. The law manages the liabilities of suppliers. Now, the Indian version of the CLNDA is perceived by many stakeholders as unworkable due to significant ambiguities in the legislation. For example, there is ambiguity about calculation of potential liability of a supplier. Due to this ambiguity, most of the insurance companies are reluctant to provide insurance coverage to the suppliers. Thus, in turn, due to the lack of insurance coverage, the suppliers are reluctant to supply parts and take part in Indian nuclear projects. There are other differences in the Indian law and other liability legislations. For instance, Indian law has limited the total compensation to 320 SDR or 450 million US dollars. Under the Indian law, the supplier of a nuclear part can also be held liable for faulty supply of equipment in case of a disaster.
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There is a case made for an insurance pool where contribution by Indian government and insurance firms could mitigate the challenge of unwillingness to provide insurance cover. Deterrence: Explained in the earlier section. First Strike: First strike is a nuclear strategy of identifying and completely destroying enemy countries’ nuclear forces. The attacker needs to not only have complete idea as to where the enemy has kept its nuclear weapons (to destroy them) but also needs to have some additional reserve of nuclear forces to prevent any devastating reprisal in case of an unsuccessful first strike. The first strike should not be seen as same as the first attack. A first attack would be a limited attack that may not destroy the enemy’s nuclear forces. First Use: If a state is not able to defend itself with conventional military forces or feels that there is uncertainty in its capacity to defend itself through conventional forces, it may reserve a right to the first use of nuclear weapons. Normally, when a state feels that its adversary may possess significantly superior conventional forces, it may be compelled to adopt first use. But first use does not mean early use, as states having first use may still resort to use of nuclear weapons as last resort. India has no first use doctrine. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: The first ever version of CTBT was proposed by Nehru in 1954 to ban atmospheric nuclear testing. It was later in 1993 that the Conference on Disarmament began to negotiate a CTBT. A text of the CTBT was finally prepared in 1996. The treaty decided to ban all forms of nuclear testing worldwide. The treaty till date has not come into force. As we shall see later in the chapter detailing India’s Nuclear Policy, India due to various reasons, has refused to sign the treaty. As India refused to sign the treaty, the treaty itself could not be enforced as it was based on consensus of all parties in the Conference on Disarmament (CD). In September 1996, Australia took the text of the treaty to the UN General Assembly where while voting, India along with Libya opposed the treaty. The treaty can only come into force if all parties at the CD sign the treaty. Conference on Disarmament (CD): It is a disarmament negotiating agency with its headquarters in Geneva. Five members from NATO and five members of Warsaw Pact in 1960 in Geneva had established the Ten Nation Committee on Disarmament or the TNCD. To encourage further dialogue between the US and Soviet Union, the UN, in 1961, established Eighteen Nation Committee on Disarmament (ENCD). The ENCD added eight members from the Third World and the ten from TNCD. The ENCD, in 1969, was rechristened and reconstituted as Conference of the Committee on Disarmament (CCD) and finally the CD replaced CCD in 1979. The CD has been instrumental in negotiation of CTBT (as explained above) along with acting as a forum to negotiate First Missile Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) and prevention of arms race in outer space treaty. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Fissile Material Cut off Treaty (FMCT): FMCT is a treaty being proposed to prohibit production of highly enriched uranium and plutonium. Regarding the scope of verification procedure, there is unanimity that the procedure should be strong, effective and also politically acceptable. Many countries have advocated that the procedure should not be the same as prescribed under NPT. Some sections in the Indian establishment are of the view that FMCT should have mechanisms whereby all states comply with all obligations. India’s ambassador at the CD has reiterated that India would only favour a treaty if it intends to ban future production of fissile material only.
Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR): To prevent the proliferation of unmanned delivery vehicles for nuclear weapons, an informal agreement has been established called as MTCR in 1987 by the US, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. As per the MTCR, it places a ban on the transfer of such missiles that can carry more than 500 kilogrammes or have a range beyond 300 kilometres. In 1992, the MTCR expanded its mandate to add unmanned aerial vehicles.
India joined the MTCR in June, 2016. In 2015, India’s membership to join the MTCR was blocked by Italy. China is not a member of the MTCR.
Peaceful Nuclear Explosion: When a nuclear explosion is carried out for non-military purposes, it is called a PNE. Such explosions are permitted by the NPT. Theoretically, characterising a test as a peaceful is very difficult. In 1974, India undertook a PNE at Pokhran. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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KEY CONCEPTS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS The purpose of this section is to explain some of the major concepts in international relations . 1
Balance of Power: Explained in detail in the earlier section as well as the ensuing chapters on the rise of the nation states. Collective Security: In a simplistic sense, collective security is equivalent to the doctrine of ‘one for all and all for one’. The idea of collective security is to create mechanisms legally to prevent an aggression by any state in the system against other states. This situation entails a collection of nation states enforcing peace by informing the aggressor state of a credible threat of sanctions or military actions. The essence of collective security is to use military action to enforce peace and to use overwhelming power collectively as a punishment to the aggressor. In a system of collective security, the states remain sovereign but relinquish the quest of using force to settle disputes among themselves to maintain peace among the members of the system. If a state illegally uses force against another state in a situation of collective security, it is assured of assistance from others, where by the state itself relinquishes its own ability to unilaterally use force. NATO is a collective defense system and not a collective security system.
The first attempt of collective security found mention in the League of Nations but as the idea behind the formation of the League of Nations, that of preventing another world War, failed, its successor, the UN, did not bring up this issue for discussion.
In the post-Cold War times, the idea of cooperative security has become more popular than the idea of collective security. The eastward expansion of NATO in the postCold War period justified the idea as it is also based on the logic that peace is indivisible and cooperative security therefore advocates use of regional institutions for collective action. National Interest: It is used as an analytical tool in foreign policy to identify the objectives of foreign policy of a state. National interest is always those basic determinants used by a state to guide state policy in relation to other states in an international system. According to Charles Beard, the term ‘national interest’ gained momentum in political lexicon during sixteenth century in Europe, when it replaced raison d’état during the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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gradual development of the idea of nationalism. The idea expressed was of development of interest of the whole of the society. Later on, it was used in the international relations as an exercise of state power. In the subsequent sections of the book, we will see that the concept, in theoretical political analysis, is mainly used in the school of Realism and Hans Morgenthau was its most influential advocate. Morgenthau, as shall be later examined, advocated that the primary national interest of a state is acquisition and use of power, especially that of military power. Later theorists went on to say that the interests of a state are diverse and guided by shifts in the international environment. The root of national interests remains survival and security of a nation.
ADVANCED TERMS AND CONCEPT IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Aid: It is a generalised term signifying a transfer of goods and services by two international actors on a concessional basis to each other. Aid can be given with certain strings attached but can also be granted without expectations of favour. The concept of aid gained popularity during Cold War times when aid was used as foreign policy tool by the US through the European recovery programme.
Ambassador: An ambassador is a principle enabling vehicle for official communications between states. An ambassador is a career diplomat of a sovereign state residing in another foreign state. It was in the fourteenth and fifteenth century in Venice and Milan, when the modern practice of resident ambassadors appeared. However, it was only in the Congress of Vienna in 1815 that recognised Corps Diplomatique and established the concept of resident ambassadorial system. Capability: It is a term used while analysing the concept of power. The focussed attribute considered in case of capability is the possessions of the state actors involved. Earlier, the military and economic possessions were used as terms to signify the capability of a state. However, now, even diplomatic skill are equally recognised. In order to be powerful and more ‘capable’, one state should always possess more attributes than other actors. Economic Sanctions: It is a form of economic statecraft whereby one state may resort to deliberately coercing another state actor to follow certain policy objectives. It involves an imposer–target relationship. The imposer uses tools of statecraft to compel the target to behave in a specifically desired way by threatening or imposing economic limitations, including boycotts and embargoes. Normally, in economic sanctions, the imposer tries to control access of goods and services for the target. Hot Pursuit: It is a legal doctrine which has been primarily associated with the high seas. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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In the recent times, the states have started using the doctrine of hot pursuit on land to pursue offenders which may normally be in the territorial jurisdiction of a foreign state. Such kind of a pursuit of offenders in a foreign territory may happen only in exceptional circumstances. The actions in such pursuits are always carried out by law enforcement officials of a state. Strategic Partnership: Two countries normally have bilateral diplomatic relations. However, as the depth in bilateral diplomacy increases, the countries would favour changing their diplomatic niceties into strategic partnership, just stopping short of an alliance. The important elements of cooperation could manifest in the form of convergence in security diplomacy, defense diplomacy and even commercial diplomacy. The origin of the concept of strategic partnership goes back to the Cold War era. During the Cold War, states were allied to the two power blocks. However, as at the end of the Cold War the states found themselves independent, each of them began to stitch an important relationship with a more superior power by using the term strategic partnership.
India and its Strategic Partners: In SP, countries normally identify elements of vital diplomatic convergence The concept of SP, as it has evolved in the last few decades, allows a state to enter into a cooperation-cum-partnership only in those areas where the two states feel that there is enough convergence, despite there being a lack of formal alliance. In other words, unlike an alliance that is binding for nations on all issues in all situations, SP convergences are always in areas where both states envisage a long term cooperation. India, since the end of cold has signed SP agreements with may nations. We will read about such agreements in detail in further sections of the text. For India, the common yardstick while entering into such an agreement is whether the other country has a critical role to play vis-à-vis our national security and national interest. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Summit Style Diplomacy: The origin goes back to the Cold War times when Winston Churchill used the term to define the summit meetings between the leaders of great powers. It is a form of international negotiation where leaders meet, negotiate and resolve issues. In summit level meetings, Churchill favoured face-to-face interactions with the leaders. In fact, Lloyd George also advocated that to settle things, leaders should meet face to face and talk. He is, in fact, known as the initiator of the idea of summit style diplomacy. In modern times, leaders meeting face-to-face to resolve issues are more common. Different Tracks of Diplomacy: The word tracks in this context means channels used by international state order to undertake negotiations. ■ Track–I: This means official diplomacy where heads of the states and diplomats and other government officials interact and negotiate to resolve issues. ■ Track–II: This means use of non-official actors like NGOs, civil societies, business houses, media persons and even conflict resolution specialists negotiate to resolve issues. ■ Multi-track: Multi-track diplomacy is a term coined by Dr Louis Diamond who has identified nine different tracks of diplomacy. The word track is mentioned as (T) in the below diagram.
White Shipping Agreement: When two states agree to conclude a white shipping agreement, both decide to exchange information with each other related to movement of non-military commercial merchant vessels. Since, in the waters around a state, a lot of vessels from small fishing ships to big trawlers move around, such an agreement reduces threat and brings more predictability and stability in the seas. Indian navy is striving to achieve complete Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) in waters around India. For the MDA to succeed, white shipping information exchange agreements help in knowing the vessels’ countries of origin, countries enroute and destination points, thereby helping in https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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collating MDA. Net Security Provider: It is a term associated with a country which can ensure a stable, peaceful and secure neighbourhood in the region it is based in. Backchannel Diplomacy: When two adversaries carry out secret communication through secret lines to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough, such communications are called backchannel diplomacy. For example, Barack Obama and Hassan Rouhani opened up backchannel diplomatic talks that led to the US-Iran nuclear deal in 2015. Pariah State: Any state in the international community which is perceived as an outcast is called a pariah state. It is also known as a global pariah. Ping-pong Diplomacy: In the initial years of the Cold War, the US perceived China as a threat because of the Chinese propensity to lean towards the Soviet. In Early 1970s, the US and China began to exchange table tennis players. These table tennis matches paved a way for the two to open up communication channels which ultimately culminated in Nixon’s visit to China. The ping pong refers to the table tennis opening up diplomatic channels of communication. Soft Power Diplomacy: A concept of diplomacy coined by Joseph Nye where he explains that it is a form of diplomacy exercised by a state to win its avowed aim without resorting to military coercion or by extending an economic inducement as a carrot. Brown Water Navy: It is a naval force which comprises of small ships, like patrol boats and gunboats, that are used to assist other mother ships. These vessels are primarily used in rivers. Green Water Navy: It is a naval force which has capabilities to carry out offensive operations in the littoral zones of a state. They operate in coastal waters. Blue Water Navy: It is a naval force having capabilities to project power abroad in foreign territories. The naval force can project power in deep oceans far away from the domestic waters of the state. Such ability to project power is possible through acquisition of aircraft carriers. India has aspiration of becoming a blue water navy.
TERMS USED IN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION Economic integration between the states is a process driven by different kinds of agreements. Here, we will try to understand the technical differences amongst the different terms so that it eases out our reading of the book in its entirety where such terms would be frequently encountered. Any economic integration opens up with agreement to remove disputes. In the first stage, the states may conclude a Trade Investment Framework Agreement or TIFA . Whenever two states intend to expand trade and resolve any bilateral disputes, TIFA is their usual first step. In 2009, ASEAN and the USA concluded a TIFA. At the same level, in the first stage, a Bilateral Investment Treaty or BIT too could be envisaged. The BIT is signed to invite Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and to pledge to protect the investments of investors in each other’s territory. Germany and Pakistan had concluded the first BIT in the world in the 1940’s. The second step in the integration is to first conclude a Preferential Trade Agreement https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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or PTA. In a PTA, the participating states not only make the non-tariff barriers insignificant but also the tariff barriers stand to be reduced. The PTAs are a prelude to a Free Trade Agreement or FTA. In an FTA, the states eliminate tariffs on goods and services. The FTAs, by removing barriers to trade, promote a competitive advantage by boosting specialisation and division of labour. If countries envisage integration beyond an FTA, then they conclude a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) or Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). In CECA, the countries not only promote trade in goods and services by liberalising tariffs, but also establish an investment regime. On the other hand, in a CEPA, apart from liberalisation of trade in goods and services there are agreements on investments, intellectual property and fair competition. The last stage is known as a Common Market where there is free movement of capital and labour from one nation to another apart from the free trade in goods, services and investments. The Common Market removes all technical, physical and fiscal barriers amongst participating states. The highest form of economic integration, however, is when the group of states decides to charge a similar import duty for imports and allowing complete free trade amongst the group. Such an integration mechanism is called a Customs Union.
The theoretical mechanism of integration is as follows:
Three World Theory: The First World refers to the club of rich nations and this term came into use during the Cold War to signify the nations of the West led by the capitalist US. The Second World during the Cold War signified states economically and militarily stronger than the Third World and the countries led by USSR had this tag. A stereotypical term, Third World, was used to signify states which were decolonised after the World War II and were less industrialised and relatively poor states. Though the Third World countries were mostly non-aligned countries, the tag was also associated with the communist state of Cuba. 1. As mentioned in the syllabus of Political Science and International Relations optional (Paper-II, Part – Comparative Political Analysis and International Politics, item (6) for the Main examination conducted by the UPSC.
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PART-B
1 CHAPTER
International Historical Context and World History for International Relations from Ancient Times till the Rise of Europe
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Need for history in International Relations Illustration–Afghanistan and historical repetition Evolution of the concept of International Society Hedley Bull’s theory on international society International history of the ancient world, medieval times and modern times.
INTRODUCTION The chapter introduces us to international history from the ancient to modern times. The task of this chapter is to demonstrate to the reader through theory and multiple case studies the basic principles of diplomacy existing from ancient to modern times. Our attempt in the next three chapters will be to study how the past has not only shaped our modern world but what patterns have emerged over a period of time in the past giving us potential indicators of the world ahead. For the ease of chronology, this chapter will be discussing events from ancient times till the rise of Europe. The next chapter (chapter two) will focus on the events leading up to World War I uptil World War II and chapter three will examine in detail global events during the Cold War. The fourth chapter is a brief description of the ongoing post-Cold War period and the hints on the future of the post-Cold War period.
THE NEED FOR HISTORICAL BACKGROUND IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS We study history in International Relations because the subject of history and politics are interlinked with each other. It is from the interaction of the two subjects that we see the birth of diplomacy. Thus, to understand the nuances of diplomacy, the study of history and politics helps. The study of past plays an important role because it helps us to get equipped with the background and context of the present nature of the world. Also, the study of past eases our day understanding as it is aptly stated that history repeats itself. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Illustration—Afghanistan and Historical Repetition Our understanding of the past of Afghanistan helps us to understand its present. Due to its strategic location, Afghanistan has always been important for various powers. The British tried to control it in the pre-World War II period by having a puppet ruler Shah Shuja on the throne. In the post-Cold War period, it is the Americans who moulded much of recent Afghan history with their close proxy rulers namely, Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani. History not only repeats itself but, it also teaches patterns of repetition as visible above.
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THE CONCEPT OF INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY Every society has certain rules and practices. Societies also do not act and exist in isolation. All societies do interact and the interaction amongst the societies has been going on since ages. But in the past, many times societies did interact with each other based on certain rules and practices which were common to all those societies which interacted. This gave birth to the idea of international society. It is understood that when some common rules and practices bind interactions in society, the world in which these societies are bound becomes an international society. Thus we can conclude by saying that international societies play an important role in the understanding of history and politics. International societies emerge when nations form associations on the basis of certain values, rules and interest. The concept owed its origin to European nation states but today, in the post-Cold War world, this order is applied to distinct political arrangements amongst distinct political communities. According to a scholar named Hedley Bull, when a group of states, on the basis of common interests and values, form a society and get bound by common rules of interaction amongst themselves, this is the time when states accept no power higher than themselves, thus existing in a situation of international anarchy. The proper origin of the idea of an international society owes its origin to Europe where, in the modern times, especially after the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, we witness the rise of the European state system which was based on core ideas, rules and practices which knitted the nations on themes like non-interference, sovereignty, equality, and so on. After 1648, the system that emerges in Europe not only gave rise to modern diplomacy but also paved way for a drastic re-haul of the structures of the world leading to the birth of the modern world.
INTERNATIONAL HISTORY OF THE ANCIENT TIMES Our study of the ancient times begins from the period of the rise of successive civilisations. We do not include the time period when man was a hunter and a food gatherer, since it is part of pre-history, that is, the time period from where no historical record has survived and evidences mostly include only fossils and archaeological findings. In our study of the ancient period, we shall have a look at cases of ancient Indian foreign policy, the case of the special hegemonic system of ancient Greece and the diplomacy in ancient China. In the study all of three cases, it will become clear to us that since ancient times, diplomacy did indeed exist. Even during this period, the countries/civilisations conducted themselves according to a well-defined foreign policy. Elements of modern international diplomacy, like alliances, treaties, self interests, strategy, and exchange of diplomatic envoys, hegemony and shifting conditions were deeply present during this period. In fact, the first ever traces of diplomacy go back to as early as 3000 BC in Mesopotamia, which showed the earliest recorded evidences. Traces were also visible in 2300 BC when a peace treaty had been recorded between the Ebla King of Syria and the King of Assyrians. In case of civilisations in the ancient times, things were very different than the modern state system, where we have societies that have a well defined territory and exist https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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on the principle of legal equality and sovereignty. As man gradually transformed from being a hunter-gatherer and began to lead a settled life, the situation led to a rise in economic complexity within the group, necessitating trade. Due to trade between communities not only did people from one region come into contact with others, it also fuelled an urge amongst territory controllers (later known as ‘kings’) to extend authority over more and more land. War certainly was one option but another peaceful way out was negotiation through diplomatic envoys and treaties. A very interesting feature of the ancient period was that not only was it monarchical but the king was also ordained with divine powers and the reflection of this divinity found manifestation in diplomatic missions as well. For example, during ancient times, in the Middle East, not only did the kings sign treaties on border trade, grazing rights, and so forth, these treaties were accompanied by ceremonies and rituals and the treaties were concluded by diplomats. But more importantly, in these treaties, there were frequent delineations of detailed and elaborate procedures to be followed upon the violation of treaties. The violation of treaties was perceived to have divine retributions as the treaties were supposed to have been bestowed with divine sanctions. Though nation states do not use divine concepts in official diplomacy in modern times but divine words are still very much in fashion in the Middle East and North Africa. Illustration–Divinity–Iran and Saudi Arabia Recently, in January 2016, when Saudi Arabia executed Sheikh Nimr Al Nimr, who was a religious Shia leader in Saudi, executed for on terrorism offences, the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatallah Ali Khomeni warned Saudi Arabia of “divine revenge”.
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Now let us turn our attention to the core text and case studies and have a look at ancient India’s foreign policy to identify certain core principles of ancient diplomacy to begin with.
Case Study India and Realism in Kautilya’s Arthashastra The ancient Indian period saw numerous religious norms exercised within the purview of international relations. There were elaborate rituals on diplomacy. The birth of the idea of diplomatic envoys goes back to the times of the Rig Veda; however, the existence of diplomatic missions in reality emerged much later. The conduct of the state in war and at times of diplomacy emerged during the times of the scholar Kautilya. His Arthashastra specially talks about diplomacy. It is only in Arthashastra that we get an in-depth idea of ancient Indian diplomacy. Arthashastra advocated that self-interest is the driving force of diplomacy and that the state is the primary actor in politics. (Later in the chapter on Realism, we will see that the modern realists have propounded similar notions while advancing the theory of Realism in international relations.) All states act to maximise their self-interest. Arthashastra says that State A may make State B its ally, but this alliance between them will be based upon some kind of self-interest A may achieve on alliance with B and vice-versa. More so, even if a state may behave in an altruistic fashion, it certainly would be having a touch of selfinterests in some subtextual context or other. Alliances were deemed important for various reasons. Self-interest is the driving force of an alliance but alliances could be made for acquisition of territory, acquisition of uninhabited areas, and joining forces together to crush rivals or as a defence against other powers. In any case, alliances were to be formed by elaborate treaties to be signed by the king in good mutual faith. Apart from emphasis on self-interest in diplomacy and alliance formation, Arthashastra advanced the Mandala theory of foreign policy. This theory states that a state’s immediate neighbour will be an enemy state and the neighbour of the enemy state is an ally (we shall see later how India actually practises Mandala Theory in bilateral relations with Afghanistan). The most interesting aspect of Arthashastra is its linkage of diplomacy and war. It advocates that diplomacy is a subtle act of aggression done with an intention to weaken the enemy and gain advantage for oneself with an ultimate aim towards conquest. The role of ambassadors finds a special mention in the Arthashastra. Ambassadors are potential spies with diplomatic immunity. They play an important role in apprising the ruler with all inside information of the kingdom they reside in. At the level of foreign policy, the advice of Kautilya is that in foreign policy matters, one either conquers or suffers conquest depending upon the role of the diplomats and the kings. To explain this, in Arthashastra, he advanced an idea of foreign policy based on expediency. He argued that if the domestic state’s king is weaker than the neighbouring king, then the domestic king needs to maintain peace and if domestic king is stronger than the neighbour then foreign policy should be driven by war with https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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an ultimate aim towards conquest. Thus, we can see that when it comes to Arthashastra, it clearly asserts selfinterest of a state as the core guiding tool for foreign policy. It also talks about alliances, treaties and diplomacies as was undertaken in Greece or in China (as we will see ahead).
Case Study Sun Tzu, Liberalism and Competitive Diplomacy in China The Chinese concept of diplomacy in the ancient period was relatively different. The Chinese understanding of political domination was based on the promise of cultural superiority as the Chinese identified themselves in cultural terms and, in cultural hierarchy of the world, saw themselves on the top of the world. Some accounts of Chinese foreign policy analysis can be culled from the ideas advanced by ancient Chinese scholar, Sun Tzu. Sun Tzu advanced the theory that countries should form great power relations on principles of cooperation and trust (similar to the ideals held by Liberalism in foreign policy). In fact, Sun Tzu rejected the idea of the use of force in form of war but advanced the idea of warfare by deception. The basic logic of warfare of deception was to subdue the enemy without fighting. As Sun Tzu aptly says in his book The Art of War: “When capable, reign in activity; when active; inactivity”. Sun Tzu propounded the idea of competitive diplomacy in which he states that to remove conflict, a nation must have a strategy for diplomacy and war. A country without a strategy would be easily made captive by the one having a strategy. Thus, in case of China, we can identify that the ancient times advanced an idea of cooperation and trust in diplomacy. Greece, however, is a different matter altogether. Let us turn our attention to the study of Greece.
Case Study The Ancient Greek Concept of the Balance of Power Greece is an example where, during ancient times, we witness not only league formation (which surfaced in the form of alliances elsewhere in ancient times) but also instances of shifting alliances to maintain the balance of power. In fact, the origin of balance of power based foreign policy is seen in Europe during modern times, but was also evident in Greece as early as the ancient period. The political entities in Greece in the ancient period were called ‘city states’. The city states had differing forms of political control ranging from monarchy to aristocracy to oligarchy but were commonly bound by religion and language. All city states were differently governed but were independent of each other. In our study, our concern is mostly about two important Greek city states, namely Sparta and Athens. Sparta is a classic example of how ancient Greece exercised the concept of power. The location of Sparta was such that in its north lay Athens and south of Sparta was the city state of Peloponnesian. In Sparta, the lower class people were called Helots. Sparta always believed the southern city states may use Helots to create trouble for the city state Sparta. Thus, to ensure that nothing of this ever happens, to ensure https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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security of its own city state, Sparta built up alliances in the Peloponnesian peninsula, exercised its influence and ensured that none of the Peloponnesian city state use Helots and encourage them to revolt. The Peloponnesian states existed independently but supported Sparta at times of need. Sparta also gave liberty to the Peloponnesians to exist independently and support Sparta in case of crises. Thus, through this alliance network, Sparta ensured its own security effectively. In north, Greece had Athens. Athens was frustrated with repeated Persian invasions. To bring about an end to the Persian invasions, the city states of Athens formed a Delian League. This League consisted of around 200 city states, all which were vulnerable to repeated Persian invasions. Through this league, Athens successfully managed the Persian menace. The story of Greece is not just about Athens and Sparta but other powerful city states like Corinth, Thebes and Argos which were also strong and played a role in maintaining the overall balance of power. In one of the wars in 404 BC, Athens got defeated. Seeing this, Sparta began to assert its hegemony. To control the Spartan’s hegemony, Corinthians, Thebes and Athens formed an alliance against Sparta. Later on, a peace treaty was pushed with Sparta to control its assertion. Thus, one can see not only hegemonic tendencies but also anti-hegemonic coalition formed in Greece to ensure balance of power amongst the states. Thus, through our study of the ancient times, it becomes clear that certain common core features in diplomacy did exist despite differences in space and time. These common threads include ■ Alliance formations, ■ Self interest of states, ■ Importance of cooperation, ■ Hegemonic assertions ■ Role of treaties in diplomacy Not only did all these undoubtedly continue in the medieval period, but they were then extended in the modern times, albeit in differing degrees of usage and in varying forms. The continuity is observed in Roman Empire in medieval times, including in the period of Renaissance and Reformation. Obviously, as the world became more complex, so did these core threads evolve with time. Let us look at the ‘medieval Roman Empire and how it fell to Ottoman conquests,’ finally paving the way for the rise of the modern world.
INTERNATIONAL HISTORY OF MEDIEVAL ERA As the ancient empires began to crumble, the kings who succeeded them were unable to exercise greater influence than their ancestors. This paved the way for the land-owning nobles, called the gentry or aristocracy to assert superiority. This period is often known as a period of feudalism in Europe. The nobles not only controlled the land but also the army. The kings had less and less power with time. The kings were mostly dependent upon the nobles to supply soldiers and ammunition for the royal army in case of conflict as the king himself did not possess resources to mobilise a strong army. The impact of feudalism is visible in the society too. The medieval society was a relatively closed society. The nobles had created a very hierarchical system where commodity production was highly https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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controlled. The goods were produced mainly to fulfil domestic societal needs. There was absolutely no need for extra production for any trade. This also proves why society in medieval times was more developed in villages and lacked development for towns and cities. In the study of international relations, our interest in the medieval period shall be restricted to the West and the Eastern Rome. During this period the international diplomacy as a tool did not flourish in the way it did in the modern times ahead. The main reason was the slide of Europe into the dark ages due to feudalistic tendencies. This period was also marked by invasions, wars and ultimately, the Crusades. This period was also a period of transition. It ultimately began to decline from 1453, which paved the way for the rise of the modern world. It is generally accepted by historians that Rome began to rise from 753 BC and continued its existence till 1453. The history of Rome in initial period from 509 BC to 27 BC is that it existed as a ‘Republic’. The territory was managed by elected officials. It was only from 27 BC to 476 AD that Rome had an Emperor and it is under the leadership of later emperors that the Roman Empire began to expand. It is generally accepted by the historians that sometime around 117 AD, the Roman Empire was territorially at its peak. As the empire expanded, the governance of a large territory became difficult. It was due to administrative difficulties in governance of this mega-territory that in 285 AD it compelled the Roman Emperor Diocletian to split the empire. From then onward, one part of the territory was called Western Rome while other was called Eastern Rome or the Byzantine Empire. The Western and Eastern Rome began to have distinctive phases of history. Almost beginning around 410 AD, various Germanic barbarians, namely Visigoths, began invading Western Rome. Western Rome had already depleted a sizeable amount of its resources in its conflict with Sassanid Persians. At the time of barbarian invasions, Western Rome was relatively very weak both on the economic and military levels. Thus began the gradual decline of western Rome and, for the next 500 years, almost till 10th century, Western Rome crippled and slipped into the dark ages. However, the Pope in Western Rome still managed to consolidate his presence though failing to exercise his authority beyond a particular point. This was not the condition in Eastern Rome. The Byzantine Empire or Eastern Rome was located on land which was relatively resource rich. Also, its location was strategic in the sense that it acted as a transit hub for European and Asian trade. Thus, the rulers of Eastern Rome not only consolidated themselves after the separation, but also reformed their economic and military institutions at a time when the western part drifted into dark ages. But the success of Byzantine was not to be long lasting. The stability of the Byzantine Empire had already roused the jealousy of the Pope. There were visible tendencies of interference from the Pope in East Rome. To counter and contain the rising authority of the East, the Pope in the West, in 800 AD, crowned Charlemagne as the Emperor. But all these attempts to revive the West as a counter to the East ultimately led to a split in 1054 AD between Holy Roman Emperor’s Churches of the West and that of the Church of the East. This schism in the Church was followed by imperial feuds as to who https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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would be the successor in the East. This led to the East focussing more on internal feuds than in presenting a consolidated front to the Seljuk Turks who began to attack the Byzantine Empire. This internal fixation of the East led to the first blow which came when, in 1076 AD, the Seljuk Turks successfully defeated the Byzantinians in the battle of Manzikert. It was from this time that the decline of the East began. The decline of the East finally culminated in 1453 AD when Ottomans (who succeeded Seljuk Turks) defeated the Eastern Empire with the capture of city of Constantinople. Thus one can see that in the medieval period, western society was a very complex mosaic of the Papacy and monarchy. The church did play an important role in laying down a behavioural norm for medieval societies. The role of the Papacy dominated this period. However, as we shall later see how, in the times ahead, the role of Pope declined with rise of modern states and absolute monarchies. The entire medieval world order can be depicted as below:
RISE OF MODERN EUROPEAN INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY AND THE NATION STATES In the medieval times, the Crusades had begun. Due to the Crusades, the Europeans had gradually come into contact with the people of the Far East. When the Crusaders came back to European lands, they brought back a lot of luxurious commodities from the east. As the Europeans gradually got accustomed to these luxuries from the East, the urge to acquire more of the same grew. Some of the rich nobles who tasted these luxuries demanded more of them. They started exerting pressures on the land and serfs to produce more in agriculture and crafts so that they could exchange them with the luxuries of the east. This pressure on the land and people, coupled with a desire to acquire luxuries, began to give the poor more reasons to acquire wealth and seek jobs to meet the rising demands. Gradually all these energies pulsated outwards in its contribution to the gradual decline of feudalism. People began to expand not only their skills but also began to move to towns. Gradually, more towns and cities began to emerge. A group of people in towns and cities acted as merchants who took control of ensuring the supply of luxuries. As the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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production in Europe began to increase and as merchants began to engage in more trade, the domestic income in the hands of the new rising middle class began to grow. This also created an urge amongst this middle class to taste the luxuries. A new system was about to emerge even as the old feudal order began to get dismantled. The trade with east began to prosper, only to be limited, however, by the Turkish invasion of Constantinople. The Turks captured Constantinople in 1453 and it came as a final blow to the Byzantine Empire, which was already on the verge of decline since 1054 (the great schism in the church). The situation in Italy in 1453 was relatively different. In Italy, there was negligible Papal control. The Papacy, over a period of time, had lost control of the Italian territory. Italy was largely controlled by merchants. An atmosphere of free thinking had prevailed here as the merchants were busy in trade. Due to merchant control, a lot of scholars in Italy were motivated by the ancient past and were busy digging ancient Greek and Roman Cultures. The moment Turks captured Constantinople in 1453, scholars from Constantinople began to move to Italy. In Italy, they hardly faced any opposition from the merchants controlling the city and it began to serve as a sanctuary for scholars. These scholars, over a period of time, began to intermingle with the scholars in Italy. The scholars who fled Constantinople carried with them whatever ancient scholarly work they possessed. This led to a further impetus to the existing Italian scholars who were digging ancient Greek and Roman cultures. Gradually, due to the integration of scholars in the system, coupled with an environment conducive for free thinking, Italy began to emerge as a centre of learning. Scholars in Italy increased their intensity in digging ancient Greek and Roman cultures. There was a sudden revival of ancient Greek and Roman cultures and a new urge to appreciate the ancient past and ancient classics. The reading of the ancient past gave Europe a new lease of life. His thought processes gradually began to change. Man began to appreciate the ability to reason. For him, this revival of study of ancient past and subsequent gain of aspiration culminated in a landmark movement called the Renaissance. Renaissance freed man from the tutelage of the past and encouraged him to think beyond. Not only did his mental horizons begin to widen but it was coupled with another important invention—the press. One of the most important things to happen during this period was the invention of the printing press. The press provided an impetus to making the greatness of the ancient past available to all. This was accompanied by a rise in the vernacular languages. The texts were now made available for the larger population to read. This increased the curiosity of the common people, who, after reading ancient texts, including, more importantly the Bible, began to develop a critical spirit of enquiry. This particularly laid the seeds for religious reformation. Renaissance as a movement began to spread and it not only awakened man’s mind but also taught him to appreciate other humans. This appreciation and love of humans saw its manifestations in art, architecture, sculpture, music, paintings, and so forth. It developed during this period as a force under humanism. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Renaissance certainly brought about the propensity towards rationality in the minds of people and encouraged them to think independently. It also encouraged people to criticise things that lacked logic. Renaissance revolutionised the human mind and inculcated a spirit of learning. This period of Renaissance is also crucial for other developments that paved ways for the rise of modern Europe. Firstly, when Turks captured Constantinople, they also got hold of all trade routes by Europe and Asia. Europe witnessed a situation of deprivation of oriental luxuries. The Europeans were gradually becoming impatient. They understood that the Turks would act as obstructions in case of trade with the east. The Europeans now began to search for new trade routes and this search for the same paved way for the rise of geographical discoveries. The geographical discoveries gave rise to a new merchant class and a subsequent new middle class in Europe which became a new social force. This class began to accumulate wealth and made attempts to control municipalities and later on, state power. Geographical discoveries also increased the ambition of men to reach new territories to undertake more trade. Thus, this was the time period when we witnessed the rebirth of Europe. The Renaissance and geographical discoveries gave it the much-needed push. Another important development of this period was invention of gunpowder. This brought about a radical shift in political power structures. In the medieval feudal world order, as we saw previously, the kings were basically dependent upon standing armies from the nobles and barons. As the invention of gunpowder happened, the kings now were not dependent upon nobles for armed support anymore. The relevance of nobles gradually began to decline, and taking advantage of invention of gunpowder, the kings began to take control of the armies and began consolidation of their positions. The kings began not only to consolidate their positions but also began to give impetus to the rising middle class and took steps to promote trade. The monarchs began to accept the new social rules and also decided to shed off the medieval social order in favour of the new social rules and a new society. One of the other crucial things happening in this period was gradual birth of a movement called the Reformation. The roots of Reformation could be very well traced in the ongoing revival or rebirth of Europe. Renaissance and geographical discoveries gave birth to trade and a rise of the merchant class. This new merchant class made cities their new homes. As people saw opportunities for intellectual and material growth in cities, they gradually began to migrate outwards from villages to cities. The intellectual revolution brought about by the Renaissance also encouraged people to challenge the medieval notions of the authority of the church. Over a period of time, as the printing press was discovered, not only did it contribute in making available classics of ancient past for people, but the boost to vernaculars also led to translation of Bible for the common man who was hitherto unable to read it in traditional Latin. As people read the Bible, they began to question the authority of the Church more than before. Two things clearly emerged out of this new situation. Firstly, the rise of a city life drastically reduced the revenue of the church. As people began to move to cities, they paid less attention on the church and focussed more on survival. This drastically reduced the availability of money to the church. Church https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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seriously needed finance to re-assert its authority over the people. Due to commercial revolution and a need to sustain oriental luxuries, there was a thrust amongst monarchs to promote trade and patronise the emerging middle class to consolidate their position. Due to this, many monarchs also felt lesser need to use church for state power. The monarchs also did not feel like risking the use of the church to suppress a newly emerging social order. Also, the past events like the Great Schism of 1054 had already caused cracks in the authority of the Church. More importantly, the invention of the printing press facilitated the emergence of religious reformers like Martin Luther. In 1517, Pope Leo X desperately needed money to complete the construction of St. Peter’s Cathedral in Rome. To collect money, the Pope authorised the sale of something called indulgences. The idea of indulgences went back to the times of the Crusades. The logic was that if person committed a sin, he or she could ask for forgiveness from God by purchasing an indulgence from the Pope on offering the required payment. The justification involved was that a person paying for the indulgence is paying a part of his hard earned money as a sacrifice to the Church and thus, God would forgive the person for his sacrifice. In 1517, when Martin Luther saw the authorisation of indulgence sale by Pope Leo-X, he stimulated a debate on the sale of indulgences and began to question its rationality. This debate ended years later not only in religious reforms in the church but ultimately concluded with a split in Christianity, leading to the rise of Protestantism along with existing Catholicism. The religious question concluded with the Thirty Years’ War which ended in the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 and finally ended the religious question once and for all in Europe. Renaissance, the Reformation and new geographical discoveries not only created a new spatial awareness and an interest in cartography but also emphasised the need of territorial expansion and strictly defined boundaries. The balance of power now became a new instrument which would act to mitigate hegemony, thus rendering it a new tool in statecraft. As the developments mentioned previously brought about a new doctrine of sovereign independence in Europe, the rise of the nation states and absolute monarchy ushered Europe into a new phase of conflict. The Peace of Westphalia (1648) Peace of Westphalia, European settlements of 1648, which brought to an end the Eighty Years’ War between Spain and the Dutch and the German phase of the Thirty Years’ War, was the peace negotiated, from 1644, in the Westphalian towns of Münster and Osnabrück. The Spanish-Dutch treaty was signed on January 30, 1648. This treaty finally ended the religious struggle of Europe which began with the Reformation. The Peace of Westphalia stated clearly that the rulers of states have the right to observe religious tolerance in their internal policies and there will be no Papal interference in religious affairs of the state. As the Peace of Westphalia accepted that rulers of the states would have the right to decide the religion of its subjects, it also was a clear acknowledgement of the state sovereignty. Additionally, Spain also recognised the independence of the Dutch Republic. The Peace of Westphalia created a basis for national self-determination and established the precedent of peace established by diplomatic congress. It also founded a new system of political order in central Europe, later called Westphalian sovereignty, based upon the concept of co-existing sovereign states. Inter-state aggression was to be held in check by a balance of power. A norm was established against interference in another state’s domestic affairs. As European influence spread across the globe, these https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Westphalian principles, especially the concept of sovereign states, became central to international law and to the prevailing world order. At the political level, in 1700, in Europe the crisis emerged again on the question of succession to of the powerful Spanish crown after the death of Charles II, the last Habsburg king of Spain. The concern was that whosoever would be the successor of Spain should be able to preserve balance of power. The challenge of succession was more dependent upon external forces like France and Austria, who, due to imperial relationships, made equal claims. The war of Spanish succession came to an end with the Treaty of Intercut in 1713 which recognised the principle of the balance of power. As the kings consolidated positions, their energies pulsated outwards and the urge to conquer lands for sustaining the new commercial and intellectual revolution. All this firstly stabilised Europe, and secondly, gave birth to diplomacy. Not only did the states begin to rise to the logic of territoriality but the states’ interests became so inextricably linked with each other that if one state took an unwelcome measure, it affected others and this led to a reaction by other states to normalise the unification, which gave way to rise of concept of the balance of power. States realised that they needed a path open to the other states through which important information and dialogue could flow. This paved way for rise of permanent ambassadors who began playing an important role in international politics of the newborn Europe. The king also realised the need to rehabilitate the nobles who were disenchanted because of their deliberate neglect by the king and thus, initially, it was the nobility that acted as the first diplomats in the diplomatic corps of the modern times. This gave eliteness to the concept of diplomacy which happened due to rehabilitation of the nobles in the diplomatic corps and is visible even today in the practice of 21 century diplomacy. Thus, this period saw the rise of a professional diplomatic service that had the ability to maintain the balance of power through treaties which no more had religious sanctions but were based on an agreement as per international law. Thus, the period from Renaissance till the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713 introduced in Europe the period of stability and brought about rise of the principles of modern society like sovereignty, non intervention, institutions of diplomacy, balance of power and international law. st
Meanwhile, as trade flourished through new sea routes, it could not be financed anymore through money from individual merchants. There was felt a need for a more organised source of trade finance. This led to the rise of joint stock companies to finance trade. As geographical discoveries continued, there came an age of enlightenment. This enlightenment by intellectual scholars which was a continuation of the spirit ignited by the Renaissance and reason had a profound impact on European society. The age of Enlightenment encouraged the man to think freely and scholars and intellectuals lent support in building a societal foundation based on reason and critical enquiry. The Enlightenment had two consequences on the European history. It, firstly, produced the spark for political revolutions and secondly, gave impetus to experimentation which ultimately led to the industrial revolution. The first cataclysmic event in the west was the American Revolution. The Enlightenment scholars had an effective contribution in igniting and sustaining the struggle. The sustained intellectual contributions of Jefferson, Locke, Milton and Thomas https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Paine are a testimony to the fact. In 1776, America finally became a republic. It witnessed its own troubles in the form of civil wars in its road to stability. But the American Revolution had two important consequences. The first was that it sowed the seeds for a revolution in France and the second, the ideal of democracy was seen as an inspiration by the French. This paved way for the French revolution in 1789 which was based on the ideas of liberty, equality and fraternity. The ideas spearheaded by the French Revolution resonated deeply amongst Europeans almost till 1945. This intellectual revolution also brought about an urge in man to indulge in experimentation. The manifestation of this spirit was seen at the industrial level where man began developing modern techniques of production. His thinking and application of reason in industry was encouraged through the ongoing period of Enlightenment. This intellectual revolution ultimately paved way for important changes in industrial production and gradually provided a strong imperative for the industrial revolution. As the industrial revolution progressed, the monarchs not only felt an urge to procure resources to fuel domestic industrial build-up but also felt the need to establish markets to sell their products. A strong need was felt to get resources and slaves for continuing the industrial revolution. At the economic level, the manifestation of Enlightenment was a new economic policy of ‘Mercantilism’ (dealt with later in detail) which developed and engulfed the thinking of European monarchs. The search for new trade destinations for resources, slaves and later, markets for produced goods, fuelled the industrial revolution and later contributed to the increase in the interstate rivalry in Europe. As France, Denmark and Britain began to industrialise, they gave way to imperial endeavours. The British certainly had the edge considering they were the first amongst Europeans to stabilise politically through democracy which was established successfully after the Glorious Revolution of 1688. the situation created enormous desperation amongst Europeans to colonise distant lands in Asia and Africa. The impulse to colonise of Asia and Africa certainly owes its origin to the mercantilist and imperialist behaviour of these absolute monarchs. The fight amongst the Europeans to colonise the other part of the world created intense inter-European rivalry. This rivalry ultimately paved way for urge amongst Europeans to maintain balance of power. To maintain this balance of power, the Europeans experimented with a multitude of alliances. But, none of the alliance systems were adequate to prevent this rivalry from emerging again and again. This intense rivalry fuelled a situation of enormous mistrust and suspicion. These alliances certainly took the entire Europe to a very dangerous and volatile scenario where a major conflict was gradually becoming inevitable. Inter-state rivalry and the urge to stop the other nations to colonise distant lands and ensure one’s own supremacy in the continent as a dominant power brought Europe to its first continental conflict which became a world conflict later, and was called the World War–I. The next chapter creates a foundation of international history by explaining the events building up to WW I, the inter war period and WW II.
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2 CHAPTER
International Historical Context and World History for International Relations from Modern Times till the Onset of the Cold War
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: The reasons for rivalry of the European states Emergence of the USA and Germany on the global scene Rise of German and British rivalry in Europe Alliance formations as a hedge against rivalries Rise of Serbian nationalism, Austrian cautiousness and Russian urge Case study: Diplomatic crisis in Morocco Case study: Bosnian annexation and rise of Serbian hostility Case study: Crisis in port of Agadir and a victory of Entente Case study: The conflicts in the Balkans Analysis of the Balkan conflict Case study: Alliances executed leading to World War-I Analysis of treaties at the end of World War- I The treaty of Versailles, 1919; The Treaty of St. Germain, 1919; Treaty of Trianon, 1920; Treaty of Neuilly, 1919; Treaty of Sevres, 1920 The rise of League of Nations; Sweden–Finland issue; Organizations under the League of Nations Rise of Mussolini in Italy German reparations and Weimer Republic Genoa Conference, Dawes Plan, Locarno Treaties and Kellogg–Briand Pact Rise of socialists and NAZI party in Germany Case study: Russia from Tsarism to Communism Case study: Japan—The power actor of Far East Lebensraum policy of Hitler and invasion of Poland and Czech—1939 Outbreak of the World War–II German invasion of Denmark, Norway, Holland, Belgium and France and Battle of Briton https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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German Pact of Non-Aggression with Russia and Operation Barbarossa Japanese invasion of Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Burma and Philippines The incident of Pearl Harbor and entry of US in the war Capture of Sicily and defeat of Mussolini Operation Overlord and opening of the Second Front Unconditional surrender of Germany, death of Hitler and conclusion of war in the European battleground US bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and conclusion of the war League of Nations is replaced by the United Nations and the rise of the Cold War
SITUATION OF EUROPE IN THE MODERN TIMES From the study of the previous chapter it is quite clear that the Renaissance, Enlightenment and Industrial Revolution had put Europe on a path of recovery and rise. The time was not far for Europe to become one of the strongest contenders of world power. The Industrial Revolution had led many Europeans nations to lead the search for resources and new markets. One of the manifestations of this was imperialism and colonialism. Africa and Asia were the new battlegrounds for an imperialist Europe. As Industrial Revolution progressed in Europe, it created stronger, more powerful economies back home. If the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 led to the emergence of strong political entities in the form of the nation states, then it is Industrial revolution that created strong economies in Europe. Some prominent economies by 1900 were France, Britain, Belgium, the Hapsburg Empire, Japan, Italy, USA and Germany. A special mention of USA and Germany needs to be made here. In the previous chapter we studied that America undertook a successful revolution and declared independence in 1776. After Declaration of Independence it witnessed a mild civil war but overcome it soon and embarked upon a programme of economic recovery. America almost got a full century to undertake economic development without any external interference. From almost 1800 to 1900, as America was on a steady path to economic empowerment, this time Europe started witnessing revolutions. Also this was the time period (1800 to 1900) when Europeans also began Industrial Revolution, imperialism and colonialism. This gave USA an opportunity to emerge as a strong player during World War–I. Similarly, if we see that Germany, after its unification by Bismarck, had embarked upon a programme of rapid industrialisation, as also a path of colonial acquisitions. Germany, by 1900, became a very strong economic contender for power in Europe and along with its new love for colonial conquests (Weltpolitik), it ended up outranking the British and French. Germany, empowered by its economic success, began to use its wealth for enhancing its military and naval power. Soon Europe witnessed a tremendous rise in Anglo-German naval rivalry. Apart from this, the strong economies of Europe also began to feel extremely suspicious of each other’s economic success. Everyone wanted to ensure that the other does not become so economically powerful as to threaten somebody else’s existence. One consequence of this insecurity was alliance formation. It began in 1882, when German and Austria– Hungary formed an alliance which was subsequently followed by the Franco– Russian alliance in 1894 and, most importantly, the British and French Entente Cordiale of https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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1904. In fact, at the time of outbreak of the WW I, these alliances played a very important role. Some scholars, in fact, are of the view that it was these alliances and the bid to maintain the balance of power that led to the–WW I. But, it would be wrong to accept it as the sole cause of–the war, because there were many other immediate causes that–were responsible for it, of which colonial rivalry was certainly a much bigger contributory factor, along with the fervour of intense nationalism. Serbian nationalism in this context needs to be elaborated. The root cause of Serbian dissent was over Bosnia. In 1878, the Territory of Berlin was signed and as per this treaty, Austria was allowed to control Bosnia even while Bosnia would continue to be a part of the Turkish Empire. On the other hand, Serbia had an aim of establishing a greater Serbia by uniting all Serbs and Croats living in the Balkans into large kingdom called Yugoslavia, for which it needed control over Bosnia. Austria did not support Serbian nationalism and wanted to put an end to it because Austria knew that if Serbia has its way of getting Serbs and Croats, it would endanger the stability of the–Austro-Hungarian Empire because of the large number of Serbs residing there. Serbians were supported by the Russians, on the other hand. For Russia, the Balkan was the only territory left where other European powers had not undertaken colonial expansion. The Russian support to Serbia was also not appreciated by Austrians at all. Thus, to conclude, we may say that by 1900, Europe economically was able to assert itself, but was also in a very volatile situation because economic success ignited a race for colonialism which created intense inter-state rivalry threatening the European balance of power and to maintain this balance of power, alliances were formed which again made the outbreak of a war imminent. Apart from this, as we saw in case of Serbia, nationalism itself was one of the causes of rivalry, and eventually brought Europe on the verge of world war. Other reasons for unrest were the crisis in Morocco, the crisis in Bosnia, Agade and the war in Balkans. Some of these major sparks can be seen in the form of cases below.
Case Study Diplomatic Crisis in Morocco Core Players, Treaties and Learning Key Players: French, British, Moroccan sultan, Germans Key Treaties: The 1904 British and French Entente Cordialle Case Learning: Psychological Victory of Entente and the defeat of Germany In 1904, the British and French had signed an Entente Cordialle. Germany was quite alarmed to witness the treaty between the two erstwhile rivals and wanted to see if this entente cordialle would genuinely hold fast under duress. It tried to test the entente in Morocco. Morocco was one area in Africa which was not yet fully colonised by any European power but the French were adamant to control the Moroccan police and its banking system. The Germans openly began to assert their support to the Moroccan Sultan. In order to put an end to the rivalry in Morocco, the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Germans organised a conference in 1906 in Algeciras in Spain. The British understood that in case the Germans are able to control Morocco through their support to the sultan, it would be a victory of German diplomacy and would ultimately strengthen German Weltpolitik. Realising this in the conference in Algeciras, British began to support the French. To Germany’s surprise, the French also got support for their plan to control the bank and police of Morocco from Spain, Russia and Italy. This conference in Algeciras ultimately ended in support for the French by the majority and was not only a big diplomatic boost to the British and French cordialle but a big blow to Germany. After the crisis in Morocco, in 1907, Britain and Russia also concluded an agreement. This was natural as Russia and France had already concluded an agreement in 1894 and British and French in 1904. After the defeat of Russia by Japan in–Russo–Japanese War of 1905, Russia was badly in need of financial help. The British were not willing to help an autocratic Russia under the control of the Tsar. To ensure that British help Russians, the Tsar in 1905 had made certain concessions for the Russian society of which the most important was the freedom of speech. These little concessions enabled the British to conclude an agreement with Russia and enabled it to receive the much needed financial help. However, the Germans, witnessing the agreement between the British and the Russians, now became deeply concerned again. The British had signed agreements with the Russians and the French, both of them encircled Germany. The Germans now developed a fear of encirclement by the British and their allies. In the meantime, crisis broke out in Bosnia in 1908.
Case Study Bosnian Annexation and the Rise of Serbian Hostility Key Features: Young Turks, Austria, Britain, France, Germany, Serbia Key Treaties: Treaty of Berlin, 1878; Germany-Austria alliance, 1882 Case Learning: Germany becomes anti-British and Serbia becomes anti-Austria. As we saw above, as per the Treaty of Berlin 1878, Austria would administer Bosnia. Let us elaborate it upon this situation a little more. Bosnia was a Turkish province. Turks administered Bosnia. But in 1878, the Treaty of Berlin clarified that Bosnia would remain a part of Turkey but would be administered by Austria. This upset the Turks but they were not in a position in 1878 to challenge the mighty AustroHungarian Empire. But in 1908, a small group of Turks called Young Turks emerged forcefully on the national scene and demanded that Bosnia be given back to Turkey and Turks be allowed to control and administer Bosnia and Austria. Seeing this, Austria decided to annex Bosnia. The annexation made Serbia very unrestful as Serbians had always wanted to annex Bosnia so that they could make Bosnia a part of Greater Serbia. As the Serbians saw the Austrians annex Bosnia, Serbs asked Russians for help. In the meantime, Germany openly supported Austrians in their annexation. Russia also had ambitions in Balkans and the Bosnian Crisis was an apt moment for Russia to fulfil its ambitions. But before Russia could respond, it https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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witnessed the response of the British and the French on Bosnian annexation. The British and the French avoided any direct confrontation with Austria as Germany had openly supported Austria. Both the British and the French wanted to avoid any confrontation with Germans and Austrians and that too over Bosnia. Russia also did not possess a very strong enough military in 1908 to openly support Serbia but it still tried to organise a conference in support of Serbia. The Serbs had wanted Russian military support which, due to the reasons explained above, was not offered. Thus, the issue concluded when Austria succeeded in annexing Bosnia. Russians felt deeply humiliated and in order to avoid such humiliation of their inability to support Serbia, they embarked upon massive military mobilisation. The Serbs became extremely hostile to Austrians and Germans for their support to Austrians. In the meantime, as the situation became more volatile, crisis emerged next in Agadir.
Case Study Crisis in the Port of Agadir and a Victory of the Entente Key Players: France, Germany, British Key Treaties: British- French Entente Cordialle 1904 Case Learning: Supremacy of British and Entente The crisis of Morocco as discussed gave a free hand to the French in the control of Morocco banks and their police. The Agadir crisis emerged when the French moved its troops in Morocco primarily driven by an intention to keep the Moroccan Sultan under check. The movement of the French troops in Morocco was perceived by the Germans as an act of interference in the affairs of Morocco. The Germans responded to this by sending a gunboat called Panther to the port of Agadir. The basic intention of Germany was that the gunboat would exert pressure on France so that France would feel compelled to seek reconciliation and in turn, as compensation, the Germans would ask for French Congo. Seeing the gunboat in Agadir, the British became very concerned. The British thought that a German gunboat in Agadir means Germany was planning to further enhance its naval presence there. More German naval presence in Agadir was perceived by the British as a threat to its free passage in the seas nearby. The French on the other hand refused to toe the line as envisaged by Germany. In the end, Germany again ended up accepting Morocco as a French Protectorate.
Case Study The War in the Balkans Key Features: Serbia, Greece, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Turkey, Britain, Germany, France, Macedonia and Albania Key Treaties: Treaty of Bucharest, 1913; Settlement Plan, 1912 Case Learning: Emergence of a resurgent Serbia https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Before we attempt to understand the Balkan wars and its consequences, we first need to remember that Balkan territory was a territory located in the East and was majorly a part of the old Ottoman or Turkish Empire. The major territory in Balkan region comprised of Serbia, Greece, Montenegro and Bulgaria. Now the situation by 1912 was that Turkey or Ottoman territory had drastically weakened. Taking advantage of a weakened Ottoman territory, the major Balkan states of Serbia, Montenegro, Greece and Bulgaria established a Balkan League. The Balkan League launched an attack on Ottoman territory with an intention of undertaking territorial expansion. The British and the Germans were alarmed to witness this Balkan expansion. They organised a conference in London where they announced a settlement plan. The aim of the settlement plan was to put an end to the expansionist urges of the Balkan States. The British were well aware of the rise of Serbian Nationalism. To ensure that Serbia does not become a powerful player outright in the Balkans, they drew up a settlement plan in which they insisted upon having an independent Albania. An independent Albania made the Serbs extremely dissatisfied as they wanted Albania to be a part of Serbia, which would have given the Serbs an access to the sea, and would not only serve to make Serbia strong, but would have also put Austria in a weaker situation vis-á-vis Serbia. For that matter, this settlement plan also upset the Bulgarians who wanted Macedonia which was given to Serbia. Thus, Bulgarians attacked Serbia only to be defeated by Serbia in the war. Austrians wanted to support Bulgaria in their attack against Serbia as Austrians wanted to put an end to Serbian nationalism but, the Serbian-Bulgarian war ended in the Treaty of Bucharest and the British-German influence ended the Balkan conflict there itself without allowing Austria to further escalate the conflict. Thus one thing is clear, Balkan crisis made the Balkan territory extremely volatile.
Case Study Alliances Executed Leading to World War-I Key Players: Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Italy, USA, Austria-Hungary, Turkey. Key Treaties: Entente Cordialle and Triple Alliance Key Outcome: Balance of power and alliance concluded in the first total war. As the Balkan wars of the previous case prove, the situation in the Balkans was very volatile. One of the reasons of volatility was the settlement plan which had upset https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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many Balkan states. On 28th June 1914, the Austrian Archduke, Franz Ferdinand, while on tour in Sarajevo, Bosnia, was shot dead by a Serbian terrorist, Gavrilo Princip. The Austrians blamed Serbia for this. On 28th July, 1914, Austria declared a war on Serbia. Serbia asked for military help from Russia. Russia obviously never wanted a repeat of its failure to help Serbia as earlier, and so, it ordered immediate military mobilisation. Germany ordered a halt to Russian mobilisation. The outright refusal by Russians to comply with Germany’s request compelled Germany to declare a war on Russia. Germany went on to even declare a war on France as Germany thought that the Russians and the French have an agreement and Russia would eventually get French help. When Germany decided to attack France, it had to cross over Belgium, which had thus far remained a neutral state. Belgium had not formed any alliances. In fact in 1839, even Britain had assured Belgium that they respected, and would uphold, their neutrality. As Germany proceeded to attack France and entered Belgium, the British ordered Germany to withdraw. The Germany refused to comply, leading Britain to declare war on Germany. Towards 1917, the USA found out that Germany was trying to persuade Mexico to wage a war on the USA. In the entire duration of the war, Germany was reluctant to help Russia as it was under the rule of autocratic Tsar but by 1917 April there was a Revolution in Russia (to be explained ahead). The USA was already supplying men and material support to Britain and France and after the Communist revolution in Russia, it decided to become a proper supporter, thereby ending up in strengthening the allied section of Britain, France and Russia. The support of the US in the war wreaked an ultimate blow on Germany and Austria and helped to conclude the war. This European conflict, which later on became a global conflict, owed its origin to the alliances, mutual hostility and intense nationalism of the nation states. It involved not only the armies but also people on a large scale, making it truly the first ever modern, total and global war. As the World War–I (WW–I) ended Britain, France and the USA emerged victorious. Russia and Italy were also amongst the victorious. Now it was time for the entente powers to take decisions about the central powers. The powers that lost the WW–I included Austria, Turkey and more importantly, Germany. The end of WW–I saw a rise of multiple treaties that gave birth to future conflicts, including the WW–II.
The Treaty of Versailles of 1919 emerged as one of the landmark treaties at the end of WW–I. The importance of Treaty of Versailles can be gleaned from the fact that it contained a league covenant which established an international body called the League of https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Nations. This was followed by a specific demand by the British and the French to make Germany pay for war damages. The provisions for German reparations and compensation for damages was made a part of Treaty of Versailles and sowed the seeds for the WW–II. The treaty wanted to ensure that Germany would not emerge as a threat to Britain and France in the future. To ensure this, the Treaty of Versailles made Germany accept that it would lose its colonial possessions, have a very limited military cum economic built up and pay to the British and French not only reparations but also share its resources with the two. Germany lost 12% of its population and 13% of its territory. Alsace-Lorraine, which had been ceded to the German Empire by France after the Franco-Prussian War of 1871, was taken back by France, and proved one of the biggest losses for Germany to have borne. Germany was also split into two with the creation of the Polish Corridor, which gave Poland access to the Baltic Sea. The Treaty of Saint-Germain-en-Laye, 1919, dealt with Austria where it ended up losing tremendous territory including Bohemia and Moravia which were given Czechoslovakia, Dalmatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, which were given to Serbia and was merged with Montenegro to form Yugoslavia. Thus, the Treaty of St. Germain undertook territorial division creating Yugoslavia. As per the treaty, Poland got Romania, Galicia and Bukovina from Austria while Italy received South Tyrol and Istria. Thus, the Austro– Hungarian or Hapsburg Empire finally broke up. In 1920 came the Treaty of Trianon which divided the Hungarian territory whence Hungary along with Slovakia and Ruthenia was given to the Czech, creating Czechoslovakia with Hungary. Burgenland was given to Austria, Yugoslavia got Croatia and Slovenia while Romania received the territory of Transylvania. Hungary lost twothirds of its territory after this treaty. The Treaty of Neuilly was signed in November 1919 to divide Bulgarian territory. Western Thrace was given to Greece; Dobrudja was given to Romania and Northern Macedonia was given to Yugoslavia via this treaty. The Treaty of Sevres came in 1920 to divide Turkey. The British got administrative rights over the territories of Iraq, Palestine and Transjordan while the French got Syria and Lebanon. This formalised the ‘Mandate system’. Some Aegean Sea islands, East Trace and Smyrna were given transferred from Turkey to Greece while Italy got Adalia and Rhodes from Turkey. Surprisingly, the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 gave Turkey East Thrace, Smyrna and Constantinople back. Saudi Arabia became independent. The aim of the Treaty of Versailles through League Covenants was also to establish the League of Nations. But before the League was established, in the transitory period following up to the League, a body called a Conference of Ambassadors was established. The body had to cease once the League of Nations was finally created. The League of Nations was established on the principles of collective security but it certainly did fail to preserve peace. This failure is apparent in the sense that despite its existence, the WW–II did occur. It would be wrong to assert, however, that the outbreak of the WW–II can be attributed solely to failure of the League. There were other reasons contributing to the conflict as we will see ahead. The League of Nations also succeeded in some instances, for example, https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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■ Instance 1: There was a dispute that broke out between Finland and Sweden over the Aaland Island. The League successfully arbitrated the dispute in favour of Finland. ■ Instance 2: Successfully established the sub-organisations under the League, like Labour organisation, Refugee organisation and Health organisation, which continued a sub-organisations of the United Nations after it was formed. But largely, the League remained unsuccessful as the the US Senate refused to ratify League of Nations and Treaty of Versailles as it did not want to support the Artcile X of the League of Nations whereby it was proclaimed that members of the League agreed to use their powers to resist aggression wherever it might occur. The US did not sign the Treaty of Versailles, which had a huge impact on the League of Nations. The period after the treaties was not a relatively stable period as the treaties had sown seeds for deep resentment leading to future conflict. Germany and Italy were certainly the two most disgruntled parties after the Treaty of Versailles had been signed. Italy had joined the WW–I with a hope that, after the war, it would receive some territory. However, Italy was not happy with the post-war settlement of lands. Also, its participation in the war lead to its poor domestic economic performance and its unhappiness over post-war settlement led to the gradual rise of Mussolini in Italy who went on to establish the first ever Fascist State. The issue for Germany was different. The German question deeply involved the British and French. When the World War–I ended, Germany had lost as a participant and as per the Treaty of Versailles, it was required to pay reparations. The French, before 1919, had already suffered two German attacks. France, being one of the victorious powers, wanted to teach the Germans a hard lesson. The French favoured a weak Germany. In contrast, the British never wanted a very weak Germany since they were of the opinion that German economy though weak enough, should still be able to purchase British goods and function as a ready market. To resolve the issue, many attempts were made. Post Treaty of Versailles, the German economy found itself devastated. Several times did Germany convey its inability to pay such harsh reparations as were imposed upon it in the treaty. The French would not accept any leniency, though the British certainly were more sympathetic in this regard. In 1922, when Germany again expressed its inability to pay reparations, the French responded in 1923 by occupying the region of Ruhr from Germany. Ruhr was an important industrial base. The British wanted to ensure that some peace prevails between Germany and France as even the USA wanted the same. Certain attempts to cool down the situations are evident from the Genoa conference where British thought to end German–French disenchantment over reparations. The US also tried to help out by extending monetary assistance to Germany. Through the Dawes plan, it tried to enable Germany by giving it loans to ensure the payment of reparations to France. An attempt was again made in 1925 by the British through the Locarno treaties to put an end to territorial aggression. The execution of the Kellogg Briand pact in 1928 ensured that 65 nations, including the USA and France, renounced war. However, all these attempts received a serious setback in 1929 when the economic crisis of the Great Depression occurred. All attempts by Germany to improve situations at https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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home and abroad received a setback. The German people were very angry with their government for not tackling inflation and unemployment at home. The economic crisis of 1929 gave an opportunity to the socialists. A brief note on political situation of Germany may enhance our understanding. After the end of WW–I, the Germans adopted a new constitution in Weimer which gave it a new name—The Weimer Republic. The new Chancellor of Germany from 1923 was Gustav Stresemann, who later continued to be the Foreign Minister of Germany till his death in 1929. The major treaties and pacts that saw Germany’s recovery and its induction into the League of Nations as a permanent member of the security council in 1926 is credited to the Nobel Peace Prize winning Stresemann. Stresemann died just as Germany was being hit by the economic crisis of 1929. Germany’s inability to meet domestic economic pressures and its failure to pay smooth reparations led to the collapse of the Weimer Republic in 1932 but, the systematic weakness of the German society post 1929 paved way of rise of the National Socialist German Worker’s Party (NAZI Party). The Nazi party began a campaign of hope for the people. They pledged to the people that, if voted into power, they would work for the revival of the economy. By 1933, the Nazi party was able to secure a handsome electoral victory, paving the way for rise of Hitler. He not only defied the treaty of Versailles and began economic and military production but also began work to restore the German psyche by inculcating a spirit of fierce national pride. He gave effect to his theory of racial superiority, propounded by his deputy Joseph Goebbels, which ultimately ended up causing the Holocaust. He also announced a special policy of Lebensraum, literally meaning the justified territory a nation believes is needed for its natural development. The basic idea of Lebensraum was to get more space for the German people, which, according to him, was, in the form of the existing territory less than what Germany needed to flourish, necessitating him to add extra territory by the conquest of war. Before we proceed further to the events leading to the outbreak of the WW–II, a special emphasis needs to be put on Japan and Russia in the inter-war period. This is explained through case studies below.
Case Study Russia from Tsarism to Communism Actors: Nicholas–II, Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin Treaties: Treaty of Brest-Litovsk 1918 Terms: Duma–The Russian Parliament, Bolshevik–Majority faction of Russian Socialist Democratic, Purges–processes of elimination, Gulag–Agency of the Government for labour management. The situation of Russia relevant for our study commences from the year 1900. It was a time when Russia was governed under the autocratic rule of the Tsar Nicholas II. The Tsar ruled Russia without owing any responsibility to the Duma. When, in 1905, https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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a war started between Japan and Russia, Russia was defeated in the war. This also contributed in lowering the domestic prestige of the Tsar. This was followed by a gradual revival of socialist Democratic Labour Party with Bolsheviks and Mensheviks on the ground. The events of the World War I from 1914 did not go in Russian favour, necessitating reforms. Though Nicholas II had been already undertaking certain reforms, they still did not politically free Russia from Tsarist control. While the WW–I was still underway, in February 1917, the Russian Tsar brought about some reforms but as they were still ineffective, in October 1917, a second revolution happened (after February revolution of 1917) under the leadership of Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin. As the World War I ended, the Treaty of BrestLitovsk was concluded whereby Russians lost the territory of Poland, Georgia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine. As Lenin began the consolidation of power, he witnessed revolts from Mensheviks and also the Tsarists pushing Russia to the brink of a civil war. Lenin, however, emerged successful and began to assert communism as an alternate to Tsarist rule. He succeeded in establishing the world’s first communist state called the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). The creation of the USSR created enormous suspicion amongst the western states. Lenin died in 1924, before the USSR could fully delineate its contours. The Russian system now came under the control of Joseph Stalin, who consolidated his position through the ‘Purges’ (aimed to end all opposition he may face) and the Gulag, the government agency that administered the Soviet forced labour camps. He also made attempts to bring the territories that had broken up away from Russia by the Treaty of BrestLitovsk. Stalin ruled till 1953.
Case Study Japan–The Power Actor of Far East Actors: US Navy Commander Perry, Emperor-Meiji, PM-Inukai, Emperor-Hirohito Treaties: Treaty of Versailles The story of Japan goes back to 1890’s when Europe was undertaking colonisation. At that time, the US, which itself was looking to colonise territories, reached Japan in 1853 and the US commander, Matthew C. Perry advocated that Japan open up its territory for trade. The US heavily used Yokohama for trade. The Japanese felt very humiliated at their territory being used by a colonial power for trade and its own sphere of influence. It was only in 1868 that Japan witnessed the Meiji restoration where Emperor Meiji re-established his grip on Japan and took on the path of economic recovery. Meiji also embarked upon an expansion to annex Korea and Maunchuria, eventually bringing Japan into direct conflict with China in 1894–95 and with Russia in 1904–05. Japan very successfully defeated both China and Russia. Specifically after defeating Russia in 1904–1905, it emerged as a major power actor of the Far East. It was also in 1906 that Japan and Britain concluded a militarily pact. Japan effectively sided with the entente in the World War I and helped the British in launching attacks on the German bases in China. Japan was also present during the signing of Treaty of Versailles in 1919 and was also a founder member of the League https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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of Nations. The situation in Japan drastically changed after the world global economic crisis in 1929. The domestic economy witnessed severe crises. The Emperor was unable to control his empire as there was rampant corruption. Also Japan began to face problems in its territories in China, especially Manchuria. Gradually, due to all these factors, the army in Japan began to take control. Manchuria was a territory in China that was being controlled by Japan. Due to the economic crisis and the ensuing weakness of Japan to take on the crisis, China tried to put pressure on Japan for withdrawal. The Japanese army feared that Japan could lose an important outpost in Manchuria where they had significant interest. The Japanese army in 1931 attacked Manchuria. This was done by the army without the Japanese government’s approval. The then Japanese Prime Minister Inukai Tsuyoshi ordered a halt but the Japanese army was not keen on taking the Premier’s advice. China took the matter to the League of Nation which ruled that both sides (China and Japan) are at a flaw and ordered Japan to withdraw from Manchuria. Japan refused to comply with the directives of the League and left the membership of the League. European states like Britain and France could not impose any economic sanctions on Japan as they were themselves crumbling under the economic crisis (of 1929). From then onwards, the Manchurian crisis clearly asserted the failure of the League of Nations to ensure compliance and Japan did remain a power actor till 1944, when the WW–II ended in its defeat.
WORLD WAR II (1939–1945) Axis powers: Germany, Italy, Japan, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria Allies: US, Britain, France, USSR, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, South Africa, Yugoslavia. The situation by 1937–38 was very volatile again. Benito Mussolini was in power in Italy and Adolf Hitler in Germany. We also saw that in Germany Hitler had announced his famous Lebensraum policy. To give effect to Lebensraum, in 1939, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia and Poland. This invasion again plunged Europe into conflict, ultimately leading to the World War–II, which was waged in the period between September 1939 and September 1945. Between September 1939 and December 1940 is the time when Lebensraum saw execution when Germany attacked Poland and Czechoslovakia. The Russians went to consolidate their positions in the territories they lost by the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk specially Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland. Germans moved at lightning speed in attacking Denmark, Norway, Holland, Belgium and France. In September 1940, Germans fought the British in Battle of Britain but the British retaliated well. In June 1941, Hitler had concluded a Pact of Non-Aggression with Russia. But in October 1941, Hitler violated the pact of nonaggression, and after initial successes in the war, launched an operation called Operation Barbarossa and attacked Russia. Germany made inroads into Russia but could not reach Moscow and Leningrad due to hostile climate and an excessively harsh Russian winter. Emperor Hirohito of Japan wanted to stay out of WW–II initially, but after witnessing the success of Germany, he indulged in some military adventurism. The Japanese army captured Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Burma and Philippines. Japan also concluded https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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a pact with Germany where the Germans assured the Japanese every support in the event of an attack from the USA. The Japanese army, meanwhile, on 7 December, 1941, launched an offensive on the US naval base at Pearl Harbour. This brought the hitherto reticent USA into the conflict, and it entered the war against Japan. As per the Germany–Japan alliance, Germany declared war on the USA. Germans, on the other hand, continued to face Russian resistance. The US first defeated Japan by successfully destroying Japanese military, then its navy and finally its air power. The USA then moved to support the British, French and the Russians. The entry of the US in WW– II was a game changer. Firstly, Britain, France and the US, having made inroads through Sicily, caused the downfall of Mussolini. Thereafter, the Allied powers used Sicily as a base to attack the Germans in the Balkans and Central Europe. It was on 6 June, 1944, that Operation Overlord was launched by the Allies leading to the opening of the second front. The combined forces landed in Normandy compelling the Germans to retreat from France and Russia. The conditions by May, 1945, were such that Germany surrendered unconditionally while Britain and the US continued attacking Japan. The US finally dropped two atomic bombs on Hiroshima (6 August, 1945) and Nagasaki (9 August, 1945) leading to a total Japanese surrender by 14 August 1945 thereby ending World War–II. The end of the war saw the replacement of the League of Nations with the United Nations as a new, more effective arbitrator of peace. However, as the war concluded with the USA and Russia emerging victorious, the world entered a new phase of history called the Cold War. Before we study the Cold War, however, we have to analyse the post-war settlements. The history of each is elaborated in the next chapter.
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3 CHAPTER
International Historical Context and World History for International Relations During the Cold War
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: The nature of the post-war settlement in Europe Yalta Conference and Potsdam Conference The world events leading towards institutionalization of the Cold War Case study: Russia making an East European satellite state system and the Iron Curtain Existence of Poland and Polish question at Yalta and Potsdam Case study: The Issue of Greece—Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan Case study: Czech crisis and assertion of Communism—Gottwald and Beneš crisis Case study: Division of Germany, Berlin airlift and formation of the NATO Establishment of the Berlin Wall—The new symbol of institutionalisation of the Cold War European Economic Community and the Treaty of Rome, 1957 Charles de Gaulle and Gaullism—The manifestation of new nationalism in France Partial Test Ban Treaty,1963 and steps towards disarmament Integration in East Europe—Communist Information Bureau, Council of Mutual Economic Assistance and Warsaw Treaty Organization The Treaty of San Francisco,1951 and alliance with Japan Case study: The crisis in the Korean peninsula Formation of SEATO and Baghdad Pact Rise of Nikita Khrushchev and peaceful coexistence theory—Rise of the Détente Visit of Khrushchev to US and Camp David talks US installation of Jupiter and Thor missiles in Turkey and expansion of the NATO Russia shooting down the spy plane U-2 of the USA and end of Détente The revival of arms race, Cold War and crisis in Indo-China, US Vietnam war and Cuban missile crisis Case study: The US and crisis in Indo–China and US –Vietnam War The end of Détente and coming of Brezhnev, SALT–I and SALT–II, Brezhnev Doctrine https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Soviet invasion of Afghanistan-1979 and Cold War 2.0 Coming of Gorbachev, Glasnost, Perestroika, collapse of USSR and end of Cold War 1989 Case study: Poland from Stalin to Lech Walesa Case study: Hungary under USSR to József Antall, Jr. Case study: German unification and fall of Berlin Wall Case study: Communist romanticism in Czechoslovakia Gorbachev, Boris Yelstin to Vladimir Putin in Russia. Analysis of the modern period Systemic shift from Balance of Power to Collective Security The rise of the concept of alternative sovereignty and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
POST-WAR SETTLEMENT AND THE INSTITUTIONALISATION OF COLD WAR As the WW–II ended, the victorious powers met at the Crimean’ resort of Yalta and organised a conference. The conference came to be known as Yalta Conference. One of the most notable and successful achievements of the Yalta Conference was the establishment of the United Nations (UN). The two stickiest issues at Yalta were of Poland and Germany. Let us understand the Polish and German issues through two distinct cases. The study of Poland and Germany along with issues of Greece and Czechoslovakia will help us understand the institutionalisation of the Cold War after Yalta and Potsdam.
Case Study Russia Making an East European Satellite State System and Iron Curtain Actors: Joseph Pilsudski (Head of the Socialist Party of Poland); Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, Vyacheslav Mikhailovich Molotov (Minister of Foreign Affairs, USSR), Joachim von Ribbentrop (Nazi foreign minister), Harry S. Truman (US President). Treaties: Treaty of Riga, 1921 and Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. Poland existed as an independent state till 1795. However, after 1795, the Polish territory was divided into parts by Russia, Austria and Prussia. The Poles kept on fighting for independence till World War–I. After the WW–I, Poland managed to get West Prussia back from Germany, thereby enabling Poland to have access to the sea. After the 1921 war between Poland and Russia, Poland, through the Treaty of Riga (1921) got a huge territory in the East near the Russian border. As the World War–II progressed, and Germans attacked Poland in 1939, Britain and France helped Poland in its fight against Germany. At the end of WW–II, Germany was expelled out of Poland. During the WW–II period, there was a government in Poland which existed in exile in London. It certainly wanted to be back in Poland after WW–II. But before the commencement of WW–II, Stalin had also reached an understanding with Hitler https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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about the fate of Poland. Stalin, through his foreign minister Molotov, had concluded the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact that assured Russia and Germany non-aggression from each other. However, Hitler violated the pact to use Poland as a base to attack Russia. As per the Molotov–Ribbentrop pact, Hitler had allowed Russia to exercise control over East Poland (the area Russia had prior to Treaty of Riga 1921). But after the WW–II, Russia was determined to ensure that Poland is not used by any European State against Russia. Stalin knew this was possible only if Poland becomes a part of the Russian sphere of influence. At the Yalta conference, Stalin was determined to ensure the above. After WW–II, even before the government of Poland in exile in London could establish its rule, Russia had already established a pro-Russia government in Lublin city in East Poland. France and Britain knew that Stalin held the key to the East but still could not just allow Stalin a free hand. They could not possibly allow a Polish takeover by Russia without focussing on ‘self-determination’ of the Polish people (the key idea that dominated the policies of the European nation states since WW–II). The British and the French urged Russia to create a provisional government for the time being with democratic elements from the Polish government in exile and later allow for fresh elections. By advocating this, Britain and French France played safe and could even convince their constituencies back home that they upheld democracy in Poland. As far as Russia was concerned, it certainly could not allow Polish aggression. Russians continued to strengthen their position and eventually recaptured territories they had lost, before Treaty of Riga in 1921. This aggressive tactic of USSR irked the USA as it became all the more suspicious with rising Communist influence in Europe. Russians used the same policy for installing Communist regimes in Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Albania, heightening the fears of the West and cementing the divisions in the East leading to Churchill announcing an ‘Iron Curtain’ in Europe separating the East (Communist) to that of West (Capitalist). The Russian attempt in establishing a sphere of influence in the Eastern European states happened after the Potsdam conference (July 1945).
Case Study The Issue of Greece—Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan Greece was under the control of Germany till 1944. The British, after the WW–II, began to assist Greece in setting up a monarchy. Russia was not keen upon witnessing the development. Some communists in Greece began to make attempts to overthrow the monarchy. Witnessing this development, the USA under President Harry Truman, began to assert that America would be a supporter of the free people who would resist any subjugation by outside powers. Called the Truman Doctrine, this came to be known as the principle that the US should give support to countries or peoples threatened by Soviet forces or Communist insurrection. First expressed in 1947 by US President Truman in a speech to Congress seeking aid for Greece and Turkey, the doctrine was seen by the Communists as an open declaration of the Cold War. The USA began to pump enormous amounts of money to assist Greece, which ended in the restoration of the monarchy and through this, a peaceful victory over USSR involving no violence, with the situation in Greece preventing an attempted overthrow by Communists. The US, after the issue in Greece, managed to https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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successfully shed off its isolationist policy and now began to curtail the rise of Communism. In June 1947, the US announced the economic component of the Truman Doctrine called the Marshall Plan. The Marshall Plan was also called the European Recovery Plan and was aimed at providing economic aid and support to Western Europe to hasten their recovery from the devastating WW–II.
Case Study Czech Crisis and the Assertion of Communism–Gottlwald and Beneš Crisis The situation in 1946 was that in Czechoslovakia had a communist Prime Minister, Klement Gottlwald and a non-communist President, Edvard Beneš. Initially, Beneš wanted Czechoslovakia to act as a bridge between East and West Europe. Since Gottlwald was a communist, he refused aid from the USA under the Marshall Plan. Since elections were due in 1942, just before the elections, the communists did undertook a military coup. The elections finally took place in May 1948, but due to the military coup, all non-communist leaders had resigned leaving only communists to fight the elections. The May elections led to Gottlwald becoming the President. This alarmed the West and they became fearful of the rising tide of communism.
Case Study Division of Germany, Berlin Airlift and Formation of the NATO The conference at Yalta and Potsdam had divided Germany and Berlin into four parts. Three parts were under the USA, France and Britain, broadly known as West Germany and other part was under the USSR, called East Germany. The western part consolidated its position and underwent faster economic recovery, while eastern part remained mired in poverty. The escalation of the crisis happened in June, 1948. The western part decided to introduce a new currency in West Berlin. Russia became extremely upset at this. Since West Berlin was located almost 110 km deep within the Russian territory, Russia ordered a blockade of all rail, road and canals between West Berlin and West Germany. The Russians were of the view that this would compel the Western powers to withdraw from West Berlin, but instead, the move backfired for Soviet as the British, French and Americans organised airdropping of essential commodities to West Berlin to prevent it from starvation. Finally, in 1949, Stalin lifted the blockade and this came as a big blow to the USSR as its failure to achieve anything concrete had become apparent. After the Berlin blockade and airlift, in the west, the German Federal Republic was formed, which elected Konrad Adenauer as its head, while in East, the German Democratic Republic. The west cemented a security alliance in 1949 with formation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which included the major West European states. The US learned a hard lesson and came out of its isolationism to contain communism. The Truman doctrine, the Marshall Plan and the formation of the NATO were steps in this regard. The Cold War of containment of communism not only got institutionalised but also spread to Korea and Vietnam in Asia. But the establishment of East and West German https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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states only increased their antagonism. Attempts to unify Germany failed as, for Adenauer, integration of West Germany inside the ambit of the US and Western culture and values was more important than the unification, while for East Germany and Stalin, to prevent movement of people from East to West was more important. Thus it ended up in the attempt of East Germany in 1961 to erect a Berlin Wall which became a symbol of the Cold War till its final collapse in 1989 leading to German unification in 1990. Meanwhile, with the economic aid begotten under the Marshall Plan, Western Europe began integration. In 1951, France, West Germany, Italy and Benelux nations established the European Coal and Steel Company which later on manifested in 1957 under the Treaty of Rome for the establishment of a European Economic Community. In France, Charles de Gaulle had his own unique vision of a strong Europe based on the idea of an association of strong nations and not a Europe dominated by the US or by Britain. Through his refusal to allow a NATO weapon shield in France and refusal to sign the Partial Test Ban Treaty, 1963, he kept the Anglo-US dominance under check by strengthening relations with West Germany. Gaullism (the nationalist and elitist approach of Charles de Gaulle, characterized by conservatism, national pride, the idea of France as a ‘strong state’ and advocacy of centralised government) kept English dominance under check, and he also tried to recognise the diplomatic relations with China in 1964 which the USA has not done postWW–II. Thus, if Western Europe was undergoing tremendous economic integration, the East Europe, the Satellite of Russia, had different instruments. The Russians firstly responded to the Marshall Plan as dollar imperialism and in 1947 established the Cominform, also called the Communist Information Bureau. The Cominform was a mechanism developed by the USSR to tighten its grip on satellite states of East Europe by undertaking industrialisation, collectivisation and centralised control. In 1947, the USSR also announced Molotov Plan, which was a plan for economic integration under COMECON (Council of Mutual Economic Assistance). With the coming of a communist regime in China, Russia and China concluded a treaty. This spread of Communism to the East made the US look east as well. The expanding US influence in East Asia compelled Russia in 1955 to create a new Warsaw Pact on the lines of the NATO. By the time the WW–II ended, the US had inflicted heavy damage on Japan, especially through the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The events, as they unfolded from 1947 till 1950, the most important being the agreement concluded between China and Russia and China emerging as a communist state, made the US realise the importance of Japan. In 1951, the US and Japan entered into a Treaty of San Francisco making these two allies of each other. The US desperately needed a base for operations aiming to contain communism in the East. Japan, after cementing an alliance with the US, received tremendous economic support for economic recovery and gave US the needed base for the East.
Case Study The Crisis in the Korean Peninsula Korea was under Japanese control since 1910. As Japan lost WW–II, Russia and the US decided to divide Korea into two parts along the 38th Parallel. The northern part https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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was to come under Russian influence while southern part under American influence. The UN had ordered free and fair elections in both parts of Korea. The US was confident that as 2/3rd population lived in the South, the population would vote against communism. The results led to the control of Syngman Rhee in South and Kim II in North. In June 1950, the Northern part, with backing of USSR and China, invaded the South. The US saw this as a deliberate attempt to spread communism and intervened and supported the southern part. In the meantime, through UN intervention, the crisis came to an end. The 38 Parallel was reasserted as a line of demarcation. By now, the US realised the need to contain communism. th
After the Korean crises, the US formed multiple alliances with states in South East and East Asia on one side and South Asia and Middle East on the other. The US also established SEATO and CENTO. The focus of SEATO was to incorporate Pakistan, which would act as a base to keep an alliance that would get cemented due to SEATO, and would prove to be of great significance for India. In the meantime, in 1953, Joseph Stalin died, leading to the rise of Nikita Khrushchev as the First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and the Chairman of the Council of Ministers, in Russia. On the other hand, in USA, Truman embarked upon a policy of de-Stalinisation. The prime intention of Khrushchev was to relax the strained relationships between US and USSR and provide a conducive environment for talks. Khrushchev began to diplomatically assert a peaceful existence as, for Khrushchev, peaceful coexistence with the West seemed like a real possibility. Not only did Khrushchev work for a detente, but also eased up relations amongst satellite states. The idea of peaceful coexistence was successful to the extent where Nikita Khrushchev paid a visit to the US in 1959 and even discussed disarmament at Camp David. But even when at the political level, some relaxation was observed, the arms race continued. The US installed missiles (Jupiter and Thor series) in Turkey, which in turn aggravated Russia. The detente almost ended in 1960 when Russia ended up shooting a U2 spy plane in the Russian territory. This was followed by US-Vietnam war (1961) and Cuban missile crisis that brought the Cold War back in full force. Let us have a look at these two cases.
Case Study US and the Crisis in Indo–China and the US–Vietnam War The entire area region of Indo–China comprises of what is called as Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. The Indo–China area was under French colonial control. Between 1946 to 1954, Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam defeated the French forces and gave them a final blow in 1954 at the Battle of Dien Bien Phu. A subsequent Geneva conference was organised which declared Laos and Cambodia to be independent of the French control while Vietnam was to be divided into two parts along the 17 Parallel. As per the Geneva conference, an election was planned in Vietnam. The elections were to be held in the year of 1956. In the North, a government was formed by Ho Chi Minh. But the US was not happy with this. Ho Chi Minh had had a Russian influence. He had established a state on Soviet lines. The US got was concerned that this again th
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signalled the widespread popularisation and acceptance of communism as a political philosophy, and perceived this as a repetition of the events happened in Korea. In South Vietnam, the US, through a referendum (not election as envisaged by Geneva conference) installed a Roman Catholic Ngo Dinh Diem. The ruler Ngo Dinh Diem became extremely brutal en route to asserting his supremacy. The population in south was majorly Buddhists. They wanted Soviet and Chinese style reforms. The ruler crushed all their demands. There was a situation of civil war in the South Vietnam. The US envisaged the civil war as being instigated by North Vietnam led by Ho Chi Minh. Also, in South, in the meanwhile, a National Liberation Front was formed which began to fight Ngo Dinh. Fearing that this dissenting Front is supported by Ho Chi Minh, the US increased its economic and military aid to Ngo Dinh. The people of South resorted to guerrilla tactics (by forming groups called Vietcong). The US retaliated militarily in the Northern territory. But nothing worked in US favour as the Vietcong and North Vietnam launched a severe counter-offensive. Sensing a defeat, the US, in 1968, suspended all military operations and organised a peace conference in Paris. A diplomatic engagement began and finally, by January 1973, the US war engagement came to an end, paving the way for the creation of a united Vietnam. The US made a crucial mistake in confusing Vietnam’s nationalism with communism.
Case Study Cuban Missile Crisis America and Spain fought a war in 1898. Since the war, Cuba had been under American control. At the onset of the Cold War, America had a proxy in Cuba called Fulgencio Batista, who was gradually growing unpopular. There were a lot of American businesses in Cuba that flourished. Taking advantage of the weakened rule of Batista, Fidel Castro, on 26 July 1953, led an attack on the Moncada army barracks. He was imprisoned for this assault. By the time he was released, Batista’s rule dwindled as it faced financial bankruptcy. Thus, there was a vaccum to be filled. This was undertaken successfully by Castro. One thing to be kept in mind was that Cuba, at the time of the power transition, did not witness a civil war. As Castro strengthened his rule, he initiated the programme of nationalisation of property owned by US business houses. Castro gave the logic of sovereignty and nationalism to justify his move. The US retaliated by closing down its markets for import of sugarcane from Cuba. A lot of Cubans were affected due to this. Some even left Cuba for the US to settle in Florida. As the economy of Cuba got badly hit, Castro domestically fuelled nationalism and internationally requested help from Russia. Perceiving this, the then-US President Kennedy gave the task of solving Cuban menace to CIA. The CIA drew up a plan of using Cuban exiles in Florida to be airdropped on Cuban beaches (Bay of Pigs). The idea was that exiles would be dropped on the beaches, and as per the plan they would intermingle with the Cuban population to create unrest for Castro. The basic assumption was that CIA thought that Castro did not enjoy popular support of the Cuban people. The plan was executed. The exiled Cubans were dropped in Bay of Pigs. Within a span of three days the local Cubans overpowered them. The exiled Cubans requested help from CIA. The US did not help them as they th
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were not prepared for something like this. Observing the matter thus unfolding, Nikita Khrushchev decided to defend the small range missiles in Cuba, since this would not only defend Cuba, but also ensure his presence in Cuba, which would be at a proximate destination to launch attacks on the US on the East Coast. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) got photographic evidence of sites of Russians creating missile launching sites in Cuba, after which the US ordered quarantine and a blockade for incoming Russian ships and began to scan for nukes. Russia, in the meanwhile, backed out. Diplomatically, a huge nuclear crisis was averted. The Russian aim seems to have been to teach the US how it feels to have missiles near them (recollect US had stationed Jupiter and Thors in Turkey). The issue concluded by the acceptance of the US not to militarily invade Cuba and the subsequent removal of its missiles from Turkey. Both US and USSR realised how quickly a small issue like Cuba could have escalated conflicts. They took a step towards disarmament namely, the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty. These two crises, Vietnam and Cuba, convinced the US to explore non-military solutions. Even Russia realised that the arms race was not leading them anywhere. Even steps like SALT-I and SALT-II were taken by Krushchecv’s successor, Leonid Brezhnev, through the active pursuance of the Brezhnev Doctrine to keep the East European satellites in check broadly continued the detente of Khrushchev. The detente post Cuba received a setback with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and this led to the second Cold War again.
COLLAPSE OF USSR AND THE END OF THE COLD WAR In 1985, after the death of Leonid Brezhnev, Gorbachev assumed power. He belonged to the group of reformists. He understood that while it remained a continuous closed economy of a suppressive regime over satellite states, USSR would always be a state with restricted growth. It is not that he wanted to do away with communism, but he wanted a communist state with a more democratic and human face. He initiated the glasnost— allowing the press the rights to criticise government actions, which, since the era of Stalin, had been prohibited. He allowed citizens a voice through press and encouraged an open society. For economic reforms, he initiated Perestroika. The reforms he initiated were step by step and slow, but they began to have far-reaching effects on society. The Glasnost he initiated received tremendous response from the satellite states since it gave the satellite states the much needed vent to speak out. But as the reforms he initiated badly affected the economy, disenchantment against the government grew. The satellite states saw a weak central control and began to assert independence (glasnost was one of the mediums). The communist model began to collapse and eventually political power was handed over by Gorbachev to Boris Yelstin in 1991. This marked an end to communism in Russia. The satellites asserted independence. A special analysis of Poland, Hungary, Germany and Czech will enhance our understanding here.
Case Study Poland from Stalin to Lech Walesa The story goes back to Stalin. Stalin was an authoritarian leader and did not allow https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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any liberty to the satellite states. In 1956, he imprisoned Wladyslaw Gomulka for being a supporter of Josip Broz Tito (the leader of Yugoslavia) who had a lot of disagreement with Stalin over the communist model to be followed and ended up in establishing his own alternative form of communism (though Stalin did not press hard as Tito enjoyed people’s support). Khrushchev paid a visit to Yugoslavia and even encouraged his communism, but ultimately his appreciation and visit to Yugoslavia created a severe dent in USSR and China relations. In 1956, when Khrushchev eyed Poland, the first thing he did was that he released Gomulka and allowed him a liberal rule till the time he was willing to respect and support Russia in deciding the foreign policy of Poland. By 1981, the head of Poland was Wojciech Jaruzelski, who succeeded Tito. He did make attempts to improve the economic condition of Poland but failed. Witnessing an economic failure, a solidarity movement (a form of trade union) emerged which organised a lot of strikes in Poland. Finally, Jaruzelski in 1989, decided to change the constitution allowing the solidarity movement to be headed by Tadeusz Mazowiuecki to be a political party. In December 1990, after the collapse of the USSR, the new solidarity leader Lech Walesa completed the transition of Poland to an independent state and became its President.
Case Study Hungary under USSR to József Antall, Jr. Hungary saw a lot of political change till 1989. When Stalin came to power, he imprisoned a leader János Kádár and replaced him with Rakosi. Rakosi became the Hungarian head of state but when Khrushchev came to power, he replaced Rakosi with Imre Nagy. Rakosi continued to interfere in the affairs of Hungary and gradually overthrew Rakosi and re-emerged as a leader. Imre Nagy now advocated on end to Hungarian participation in the Warsaw Pact. Russia did not allow this, and orders his removal. Now Imre Nagy was executed and János Kádár was released and he became the head of the state. Kádár continued to rule till 1988 but lost his grip on the economy. By 1990, a New Democratic Forum was able to win elections and József Antall, Jr. was elected as the new Hungarian PM.
Case Study German Unification and Fall of Berlin Wall We have already made mention of the division of Germany, the blockade and the airlift. The thaw came in 1989 when Gorbachev paid a visit to West Germany. The ruler in West was Helmat Kohl and in East was Erich Honecker (since 1971). At the time of Gorbachev, the Protestant Church in the West supported New Forum as an opposition party to remove communist rule. Erich Honnecker was removed and replaced by Egon Krenz. As the Soviet Union collapsed, on 9th November 1989, the protestors pulled down the Berlin Wall and decided to unify Germany. In December 1990, fresh elections were organised and Helmut Kohl knitted an alliance of CDU/CSU parties over the socialists and emerged as the first Chancellor of the United Germany. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Case Study Communist Romanticism in Czech The Czech territory was controlled by Antonin Novotny. It was in 1968 that Novotny was replaced by Alexander Dubcek. Dubcek had his own ideas of communism with a human face. He tried bringing on his reforms. But, in Russia we had Brezhnev. He was not as keen on reforms and freedom to satellite states as was Khrushchev. Brezhnev was in favour of maintaining strong control over East Europe. Thus, to keep the Czech under control and the ambitions of Dubcek in check, Brezhnev ordered invasion of Czechoslovakia. It is during this invasion that he outlined his Brezhnev Doctrine asserting that if any society emerged as a threat to the Soviets, then Soviet would not shy away from intervention and this intervention was to be justified on grounds of National interests. As a Soviet foreign policy, the Brezhnev Doctrine was first and most clearly outlined by S. Kovalev in a September 26, 1968, Pravda article, entitled Sovereignty and the International Obligations of Socialist Countries. Post the Czech invasion, Dubcek was replaced by Gustav Husak who ruled Czechoslovakia till 1987. It was only after the Collapse of Soviet Union that a velvet revolution happened in Czech and Vaclav Havel became the new head of the state. The era of Gorbachev ended with 15 satellite states of Soviet Union demanding and asserting independence. Gorbachev was succeeded by Boris Yelstin who gave the economy the much-needed boost and after the expiry of two terms, Boris Yelstin handed over power to Vladimir Putin. The Putin era has made Russia emerge again on the top and as a power player in the world again.
FINAL ANALYSIS OF THE MODERN PERIOD From our discussion it is clear that modern and contemporary societies exist in the form of nation states where nation states are the core actors in IR. The modern states operate on the logic of sovereignty where any form of outside intervention in management of domestic affairs of the state is not welcome. These sovereign states are headed by sovereign masters and these states conduct official communication with other states through an instrument called diplomacy. The nation states at the international level operate as per international law. In the eighteenth century, the international law aimed at maintenance of balance of power. The statecraft as an instrument has gradually evolved and, since the decline of feudalism, the other power contenders like the Pope and barons have paved way for strong monarchies. These monarchies, along with professional diplomats and treaties, maintained the balance of power, with the Peace of Westphalia (1648) and the Treaty of Utrecht (1713) finally settling the religious question and declaring the balance of power to be the core instrument of harmony. The period from 1648 to 1776 witnessed the decline of Ottoman Empire and rise of the British, and Russian empires. The states did interact with each other in this period but primarily with an intention to ensure systemic balance. The American Revolution ended up making the US as a superpower in the twentieth century while the French Revolution asserted that sovereignty rests with the people and https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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not the ruler. This assertion by the French Revolution had a serious consequence as it unleashed a force of national self determination which resonated all over Europe till World War–II. But, another consequence of the French Revolution was that after the defeat of Napoleon, witnessing his expansionary urge in the revolution period, the Europeans decided to ensure that no European nation should be allowed to disturb the balance of the system. The culmination of the French Revolution again saw an institutional attempt to maintain the balance of power through the Concert of Europe. The Concert of Europe did bring peace in Europe but it also legitimised the domination of Europeans in Africa and Asia. The Concert of Europe was replaced by the League of Nations in 1919 which became the first universal international body. The League of Nations shifted the entire concept of maintenance of peace with a focus on collective security as it was widely believed that balance of power was one of the causes of war. The more important point here was that the League was based on a wider membership by inviting non-European nations which the concert had not.
Since the end of the Cold War, globalisation as a force has been unleashed. It has deeply impacted the multiple dimensions of states envisaged. Since globalisation is affecting general decision making of states, a new force has been unleashed, arguing for a new definition of sovereignty. For example, today, the idea of sovereignty being forwarded is for a state to be responsible for protecting its citizens and if a state fails to protect its citizens, the principle of non-intervention (as envisaged by traditional sovereignty) is to be read as international responsibility to protect. The basic idea here is that if a country fails to protect its citizens, and the UN Security Council is convinced that the sovereignty of the people is violated then international players have a responsibility to intervene and protect citizens of that state. This principle of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) was recently the doctrine used in justifying intervention in Libya in 2011.
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4 CHAPTER
International Historical Context and World History for International Relations in the World After the Cold War
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: The ending of Cold War and rise of Global War on Terrorism. The conceptual shifts in the trends of international politics post-Cold War Key trends in the post-Cold War era
THE WORLD AFTER COLD WAR As we have noted previously, as the WW-II concluded, a deep suspicion emerged amongst the two superpowers, the USSR and the USA. Both were hostile to each other’s ideologies and were determined to ensure the containment of the other. The idea to contain another’s ideology brought almost the entire world into the aegis of the two ideologies. The insecurity generated by each created an arms race which eventually transformed into a nuclear arms race. But the Cold War did establish its norms of governance of the international society. One thing was clear, both wanted to contain the other but the containment happened cautiously. Both powers avoided nuclear exchanges despite coming extremely close to the brink of a nuclear war in Cuba in 1962. As the Cold War ended, one thing was clear: the prospect of the USSR being the sole contender to the power of the US went out of the scene. Similarly, due to USA’s presence in West Europe during Cold War, it continued to enjoy their patronage. More so, the military balance was now only in favour of US as no other power remained after 1989 to challenge the US. One can easily assert that this was the time when the US became the sole unipolar superpower. Thus, when the Cold War ended, a new world order dominated by US supremacy was a reality. The USA, throughout the Cold War, had been a champion of human rights, liberal democracy and justice. But when the Cold War ended, there were many countries that had not accepted these values which the US had stood for. Although the US now, at the end of the Cold War, had the power necessary to spread these values amongst these nations, it instead preferred to remain silent in the first decade after the end of the Cold War. After 9/11, when the US voted against the UN to control terror and ended up launching its own Global War on Terror, it irked many nations. The exceptionalism exhibited by the US post 9/11 did not go well with many Third World Nations. Another factor that erupted as a strain was the reluctance of the US to accommodate https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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rising economies as instruments of economic governance. For example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) created after WW-II, was designed to help nations with monetary assistance to remove non-performing threads in an economy. But IMF assistance was conditional for nations and were offered specifically where IMF was allowed to interfere in the domestic affairs of the economy of a country, making many nations feel as if they were dependents or satellites of the IMF. As far as the United States is concerned, as the Cold War ended, it understood that it has both power and capabilities but to some extent, it was confused with regard to what it should do beyond the expected and necessary demonstrations with respect to democracy and globalisation. Almost till 9/11, it remained a superpower without a mission. The European continent at the end of the Cold War also took steps to integrate further leading to the birth of European Union. It was a predictable integration as they had been steadily witnessing integration even during the Cold War era. As the US, in the second decade of the post-Cold War era, got militarily occupied in wars in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003), on the East came up a strong superpower, China. China aggressively accelerated its economic recovery and began to emerge a strong economic power in the East. It is only in the third decade at the end of the Cold War today that the US has adequately acknowledged the ’rising China’ as a threat to the global hegemony of the US. It has since taken steps to counter the hegemonic rise of China through Tans Pacific Partnership (T.P.P.) and the ’Pivot to Asia’ missions. The world today no doubt witnesses the unipolarity of USA, but many rising nations like China, India, and Russia (after Putin in power) have restored the balance more towards multipolarity. Globalisation will continue to integrate the world and countries have realised non-military means to ensure peace in the system, but how far counter hegemonic initiatives work in restraining nations from the course of war needs to be seen. Also, the world now witnesses multiple new threats in the form of terrorism, poverty, rising inequality and climate change. It is to be seen how the globalised world resorts to solving these. The challenges in the 21st century require a new form of diplomacy. Some of the challenges like the containment of piracy in Africa, poverty in Asia, nation building in the Middle East are some regional challenges. Arab Spring is throwing up new challenges in the Middle East and it is still an ongoing transformation. Climate change and environment diplomacy is now the next big global challenge where attainment of consensus on the most viable course of action remains missing. The emerging economies are now exerting pressures on institutions established by the west and are asserting force in favour of reforms. A failure to reform institutions like the World Bank and IMF is encouraging the emerging market economies to establish their own regional institutions, for instance, the New Development Bank established by the BRICS countries. All these challenges require a new level of cooperation which is now the main task of the state actors and diplomats globally after the end of the Cold War.
End of Section Questions 1. How different are Medieval Islamic and Christian underpinnings of International society? https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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2. Examine the concept of International Society propounded by Headley Bull? 3. “The Peace of Westphalia-1648 laid down the foundation of modern international society.” Examine? 4. “The Treaty of Versailles contributed to the birth of all conflicts in the world post World War-I.” Do you agree? 5. “Nuclearisation of the world after 1945 helped in maintaining a stable Europe.” Analyze. 6. “Cuban Missile crisis of 1962 and Berlin Crisis of 1961 brought the world on the brink of a nuclear war.” Discuss. 7. Why did the world slip into a Cold War? Examine the cases when the Cold War almost turned into a Hot War? 8. In the post-Cold War World Order, can Russia led by Putin emerge as threat to the West? 9. Keeping in mind the rising Chinese aspirations, can the post-Cold War world order be dominated by China? 10. Is the US President Donald Trump responding to the problem of terrorism strategically?
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Section B Theories and Approaches in International Relations Chapter 1 The Difference between Theory and Approach Chapter 2 Theory of Idealism Chapter 3 Theory of Realism Chapter 4 Theory of Liberalism Chapter 5 Theory of Functionalism Chapter 6 Theory of Marxism
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1 CHAPTER
The Difference between Theory and Approach
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: What is an approach? How is it different from theory? Classification of approaches Development of a theory
THEORY AND APPROACH To study an academic question, if one uses a certain act of standards that governs the inclusion and exclusion of questions and data, it is called an ‘approach’. The criteria to select problems and approaches depend upon the scholars. Thus, there is no limit to the number of approaches, since, as the number of scholars increase, so does the number of approaches. Since there is a limit we need to set in the study of approaches, we need to classify them into certain categories. For the purpose of using the knowledge of approaches in the study of IR for the paper in General Studies (UPSC), we will study the approaches of Idealism, Realism, Liberalism and Marxism in depth. The subsequent chapters in this part help us deepen our understanding of these approaches. Before we proceed, we need to keep in mind that an approach helps to build a theory. A scholar begins with a phenomenon, tries to explain it, makes predictions, and uses techniques, thus developing a distinct theory.
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2 CHAPTER
Theory of Idealism
Core thinkers: Woodrow Wilson, Hugo Grotius, Gautam Buddha, Mozi, Emmanuel Kant, DanteAlighieri
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Assumptions of Human Behaviour Foundations of Idealism in International Relations Origin of School of Idealism Core Principles and Forms Criticism of the school
ASSUMPTIONS OF HUMAN BEHAVIOUR Man has a nature which is inherently good. His behaviour is to strive for the goodness of the self and of others. Man displays a bad behaviour due to inherent flaws in the environment surrounding him. Therefore, man’s behaviour may be altered if the environment is successfully modified. If man faces conflict, he will resolve it through cooperation.
FOUNDATIONS OF IDEALISM IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS If we try to apply the idea of human behaviour as explained above in the field of IR, then the theory of Idealism emerges as follows: states at the international level strive for peace and believe that peace can be achieved through cooperation. States do not prefer war as an outcome of conflict since war is perceived as harmful and irrational as a tool for conflict resolution. The reason of war is lack of understanding amongst states of each other’s interests. If each state is able to understand the interests of the other state and accommodate those interests in the interest of resolving conflicts amicably, then all states will be able to cooperate and maintain peace within the international system.
ORIGINS OF IDEALISM In the previous part of the book, we have already noted how the balance of power and its maintenance ultimately led to the outbreak of World War I. As the states resorted to alliance formations, it increased competition amongst the states, ultimately leading to WW–I. The establishment of the League of Nations as an international body post the Treaty of Versailles 1919 brought some semblance of stability in the system. The idea of League of Nations emerged out of fourteen points of Wilson which had envisaged not only https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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the establishment of an international body to ensure abstinence from wars in the future, but had also emphasised upon the need for behavioural modification on the part of the states to promote peace and harmony. Many scholars branded Wilson’s proposals as ‘idealistic’. This school emerged from the ruins of WW–I. Before proceeding further, it will be important to note that idealism is not a fully accepted tradition in IR as scholars have never worked consistently to develop it as a proper school of thought. Scholars have propagated various ideas and views have been built upon the ideas advocated. Thus, some scholars often refuse to provide idealism a philosophical tag of a ‘school’ in IR.
CORE PRINCIPLES AND FORMS Idealism can be read as a policy prescription with faith in human reasoning. It tries and envisages a world which ought to be a better place in the future. It prescribes suggestions to envisage the world as the scholars see it. It promotes a set of universal ethics with an intention to establish the idea of ‘one world’ throughout the entire scheme of things, with the global citizenry taking centre stage in that thought. For the idealists, there is a firm belief that people will always cooperate to achieve harmony rather than opt for war or conflict. People have an ability to think, but they shall exercise their rational faculties only when states promote education. It prescribes that leaders of the states should promote education in the country since the more people are educated in a state, the more they shall exert control over their leaders so as to ensure peace. Thus, not only is education important, but public opinion in the decision making is also deemed to be paramount. The public opinion is better informed if the public is provided access to education. The idealists are also of the view that international organisations play a very crucial role in global harmony and that is why they put a lot of emphasis on such bodies. One form of Idealism is known as Pacifism. Pacifists are those who emphasise upon human reason, morality and advocate promotion of democracy and public opinion in decision making. They press for a greater role of morality in the dealing and resolution of international affairs. Another group is called Globalists. The Globalists’ philosophy also revolves around human reasoning and emphasis on democracy and public opinion, but what sets them apart is their emphasis on harmony of interests and universal ethics. One commonality between Pacifists and Globalists is that both perceive war as exceedingly harmful and contrary to human interest. In another form called Classical Liberalism, we find war branded as irrational, along with an emphasis on capitalism and an advocacy of idea that some greed is good. A summary in the table below gives a clear picture of the similarities and differences in the various streams of Idealism while the subsequent diagram captures the Idealist thought. Form
Human Reason Morality Harmony of Interests Public Opinion Democracy War
Capitalism Universal Ethics
Pacifists
✓
✓
—
✓
✓
Bad
—
—
Globalists
✓
—
✓
✓
✓
Bad
—
✓
Classical Liberalism ✓
—
Some greed is good
✓
✓
Irrational ✓
✓
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CRITICISM OF THE SCHOOL A subsequent school of political thought that rose up called Realists termed these inter-war scholars ‘Idealists’. Realism as a school emerged after the failure of the League of Nations to prevent the outbreak of WW–II. Scholars heavily criticised these inter-war scholars for fantasising about a world that ought to be than accepting the world as it is. The scholar EH Carr, a Realist, called the Idealists Utopians and their phenomenon of study as one emphasising upon Utopianism. EH Carr says that these scholars neglected the role of power and IR is all about power politics. Power, as per EH Carr, is a constant which cannot be eliminated from statecraft. Others also criticised Idealists by advancing the notion that if harmony was the core focus, then the League should have been able to prevent the outbreak of WW–II. Scholars have branded Idealists as scholars who overestimated the role of morality in IR and neglected the role of power as an instrument in state politics.
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3 CHAPTER
Theory of Realism
Core thinkers: Thucydides, Sun Tzu, Kautilya, Nicholas Spykman, Reinhold Niebuhr, E H Carr, Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Mearsheimer, Machiavelli, Rousseau Concept in Realism: Power, National Interest, National Security, Conflict, Balance of Power, Deterrence
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Understand core concepts in Realism Idea of Human Behaviour in Realism Foundation of Realism in International Relations Origin of Realism Thucydides explanation of the Peloponnesian war Hobbes and Realism Application of Realism in Syrian Crisis Hegemonic ambitions of Iran and Realism Conclusion.
CORE CONCEPTS 1. Power: The school of Realism, from Thucydides until Hans Morgenthau, has not been officially able to define what is meant by power. Some ideas, however, have emerged in how thinkers may explain the role and function of power in a context. The basic idea in power in statecraft is a situation where one state is able to control the actions of another state. In Realism, power is always used as a relational concept, meaning that power is always exercised by one state in relation to the other(s). Also, in Realism, the term power is seen as having a strong underlying military connotation. Power is the military capability of a state. 2. National Interest: Realists say that every state has individuals and individuals have certain values. The individuals of a state, based on shared values, are able to develop a culture and a sense of common identity. The idea of protection is not just restricted to the security of its people but also the protection of its identity and culture. If a state has to survive, then the survival of its identity and culture is its national interest. How the state uses this as its national interest in foreign policy is the objective of our study. This is https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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linked to the next concept. 3. National Security: If, as explained above, if a state needs to survive, it has to secure itself from its enemy state(s). The ruler has to take adequate steps to ensure safety, security and survival of its people. Thus, national security is one of the primary national interests of a state. 4. Conflict: Man by nature is conflict-mongering. It is this conflict-seeking nature of man that brings him into confrontation with others. But why is man’s nature so fraught? Man is conflicting in nature because he has to ensure his own survival. Now if we apply this logic to the state, we may see that, since the national interest of the state is national security and survival, it brings one state into conflict with other states. In this situation, a state has no option but to fend for its own self as there is no one above the state in the system to help the state. There are two important observations we need to remember here. First, there is no authority above the state for its help, which consequently means that in the international system, there is complete anarchy. Second, it is anarchy in the international system that compels a state to exercise self-help. Self-help could manifest as building up of economic and military capabilities. These capabilities can give the state an edge in an anarchic global stage and ensure its survival. 5. Balance of Power: Since national interest of a state lies in ensuring national security, to make its survival certain, in national interest, a state will undertake weaponisation. This weaponisation will secure the state but will also simultaneously cause insecurity in another state. The other states will feel insecure as the state which undertook weaponisation endangers and undercuts their own security. This leads to the other state to form alliances. The state may undertake subversion or may compete by increasing its own power to help a check on a predatory power. This will enable it to balance out power on an international scale once again. 6. Deterrence: As explained before, this is nothing but Balance of Power as understood in the nuclear age. In today’s world, where there is a tremendous pace of nuclearisation and an arms race constantly underway, the balance of power has got a new name, called ‘deterrence’. Deterrence is nothing but a threat of punishment by one party on the other if the other party fails to behave in the way as expected by the threatening party. It is believed that the threat of punishment in deterrence is exercised by procuring and leveraging the nuclear option.
IDEA OF HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IN REALISM Man by nature is egoistic. He has self interests. He loves to fulfill his interests to gain an edge over others. His most important self-interest is his survival. He has to ensure survival in a world where others are also trying to serve their respective self-interests. Thus, this brings man into conflict with others. In situations of conflict, man does not like domination but rather loves to dominate. This encapsulates the universal display of human behaviour.
FOUNDATION OF REALISM IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS When we apply the concepts and idea of human behaviour envisaged by Realists to the nation state, we can understand Realism as a political philosophy. In the world, we now https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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have the existence of nation states. Each nation state intends to survive. The core national interest of a nation state is national security, which entails fighting for its survival. This survival is in a situation where others also intend to survive. Since each state has to survive on its own, the situation is of international anarchy. In an international system beset with anarchy, the state resorts to self-help. While self-help is undertaken, the state may expand its economic and military power. This will disturb the power equilibrium bringing the state into conflict with others. In this situation, war is inevitable. War is justified as it is fought for state survival which is also the national interest of the state. Thus, for Realism, the three things below are at its core:
ORIGIN OF REALISM As stated in the previous chapter, Realism emerged in response to the interwar scholars. The interwar scholars had placed too much emphasis on morality and other, more idealistic goals. They neglected the core instrument of power in IR. But it will be wrong to say that Realism emerged from the ashes of WW–II. Infact, we see traces of Realism quite eloquently discussed in the ancient past, as exemplified in Thucydides’s explanation of the Peloponnesian War, Kautilya’s Arthashastra and even Sun Tzu’s Art of War. For that matter, Hobbes also talked of the security dilemma of the nation states. Separate case studies below talk of Thucydides’s Peloponnesian war and Hobbes. However, we also need to keep in mind that, as is evident from our previous discussions, Realism considers the state to play primacy in IR. It relegates all other functional agencies like UN, IPCC, and WTO etc as secondary. Infact classical realists did not accept the idea of these other actors, which is accepted by Neo-Realists atleast. But neo-realists still accord primacy to state only.
Case Study Thucydides’s Explanation of the Peloponnesian War We have already made mention of the city-state system of the ancient Greeks. As per Thucydides, who posited his explanation on the theme of conflict, competition and justice, every state needs to understand its status in the international system. He remarked that all the states were not equal and if a state wished to survive in the system, it had to understand its own position well, vis-à-vis all other states in the system. This was required as justice is not on basis of equality but on the basis of the standing of a state in the system. Between 431 to 404 BCE, the powerful city state Athens came into conflict with the city state of Melos. The city state of Melos was extremely small in comparison to the mighty and all-powerful Athens. In the course of the ensuing war, Melos put up an argument that Athens should respect the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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independence and the dignity of a weak, and small yet independent city state. Thucydides’s explanation was that Melos could not seek justice at this juncture as its own status in the system was not that of one which was equal to Athens. He advised Melos to understand the reality where the reality was its unequal status to Athens which could not possibly warrant justice.
Case Study Hobbes and Realism Hobbes took us back to the origin of humanity. He elucidated the trajectory of man turning from a nomad to a hunter–gatherer. Later he began to lead a settled life and finally he developed a community around himself. While settling into an agrarian way of life, man preferred to live in a community as it could help him feel a little more secure from the attack of wild animals and the devastation wrought by them. Gradually, as the size of his community grew, so did the frequency of emergence of other communities. Now, man’s security was not merely endangered by wild animal but by other communities and the fear of attack from other men. This situation was described by Hobbes as a state of nature and a pre-civil condition. Hobbes explained that man, in the state of nature, is not secure. Thus, he progresses to create a sovereign state. This creation of a state is based on an emotion of fear, and thus, he feels his individual fears can be jointly collaborated by a security pact that can guarantee him safety. However, the problem is that if he created a sovereign state, so did other communities. This subsequently led to the fear of other states. This situation is called a security dilemma. In this situation, Hobbes states, that a man can guarantee his own individual security in a state but cannot ensure international security amongst other sovereign states, thus making war one of many available options. Thus, we can see that Hobbes also agreed that war could be a potential tool used by a state for seeking survival in the international system. One of the other important classical realists is Hans Morgenthau. Hans says that man is a political animal and he has a certain lust for power. As the nature of man is egoistic, he craves for more power. The nature of man that makes him crave for power is called animus dominandi. Ironically, it is this lust for power that also makes him search for safety. His search ends in the establishment of control over a piece of territory. In this territory he establishes a state as the formation of a state gives man the needed security. But as he craves for more, this craving brings man into conflict with surrounding territories similarly created by other individuals. This explanation of man’s behaviour is applied by Hans directly to the system of nations states. He says that the world comprises of states. States have a lust for power and survival. This lust for territorial expansion and the urge to control more and more land and resources bring a state at the juncture of war with another state or even multiple states. During armed conflict or wars, a defending state also displays military power. This display of military power leads to human rights violation, but this human right violation is justified by the defending state as necessary for https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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the protection of its national interest of survival and security. A leader of this state in this case, by displaying some wisdom and resorting to the use of military power, is perhaps able to avert a greater evil. Thus, the idea propounded by Hans Morgenthau allows a state to act in hostility for the maintenance of its national interest and survival, especially if they are under threat. The ruler shall use his/her wisdom to use force to protect the state and avert a greater evil and maintain the balance of power. Realism as a school has, over the decades, witnessed a shift to Neo-Realism from Classical Realism in 1980’s. This shift owes to the work of Kenneth Waltz’s Theory of International Politics (1979). The emphasis on human nature of classical realists have gradually been theorised by the Neorealists into an emphasis on anarchy. They also do accept the presence of the other non-state actors in the system but continue to assert the primacy of the state. The Neorealists allege that as the international system is that of complete anarchy, it leads to nations acting in their own self-interest. This struggle for power is due to an absence of a global leviathan to protect smaller states. The Neorealists have propounded a deterministic theory, which says that the structure of the system in which a sovereign state functions causes the state to behave in the way that it behaves, which is to say, that a largely anarchic global system occasions inevitable conflict and warfare. Thus, they argue aptly that war happens in a context and the context is that of anarchy. Kenneth Waltz explains that international system consists of smaller units and the units are these nation states. IR is nothing but the study of the interaction of these units. All units in the system perform basic functions like taxation, municipal services, creation of infrastructure, and so forth. A change in the states’ behaviour happens when the balance of power changes. The units are impacted when there are changes in of the interaction of great powers. The Neorealists believe that there is always an establishment of a hierarchy of states that the international system changes when great powers in the top hierarchy rise or fall. A fall or rise may break down the system but eventually paves way for the balance of power to emerge again in some or the other form. In this sense, the Neorealists are also ‘Structuralists’ as, for them, the structure of the overall system determines individual or collective behaviour. Neorealism is therefore a structuralist determinist explanation.
APPLICATION OF REALISM IN REAL LIFE Concepts of Machiavelli as Propounded in The Prince We shall now try to apply the understanding of Realism in some real life examples. But before we attempt such a study, we need to have some understanding of Realism as discussed by another Realist—Niccolò Machiavelli. The imprint of Machiavelli’s applied wisdom may clearly be deduced from our case studies below. Machiavelli tries to explain Realism by using analogies. He uses the allegory of a fox and a lion to present the case. Machiavelli says that the world is a dangerous place, but if the ruler has a fine mix of traits of a lion (strong) and a fox (cunning), that is, if the leader is both strong and cunning, then he can seek opportunities in this dangerous world for himself and the nation that he rules. Machiavelli is also critical of Christian ethics. He emphasise that a ruler should never follow the Christian dictum of loving one’s neighbour. It is because if the neighbour is smart and strong, he may invade the ruler and as a result he shall not only lose his territory but also the faith his people had in him as a ruler. He advocates that a ruler take decisions for the protection of people and that he ensures growth and prosperity of the nation and its https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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citizens. The ruler, in so doing, may display power politics for ensuring safety and survival of its people and it depends upon his agility whether he shall achieve status amongst his peers.
Case Study Syrian Crisis In case of the Syrian crisis, the two important powers involved would be Russia and the USA. In the past few years, Russia has vetoed US sponsored resolutions on Syria at the UN. One Realist explanation is that Russia wants to pursue power politics in Syria as not only is the country the last relic of the Cold War in the Middle East but also holds the key to the balance of power in that region. This is because Syria, along with Iran, gives Russia a certain leverage to contain the US sponsored Saudi axis. The Syrians and Iranians, being Shia strongholds, act collectively as a strong balancer of Sunni domination led by Saudi Arabia and sponsored by the US. Thus, if US succeeds in effecting a regime change in Syria, the Shia–Sunni axis is going to be disturbed and the axis will tilt towards the Sunni side. Thus, Russia through Syria, pursues power to maintain a balance in the Middle East. (For detailed understanding of Syrian Crisis and issues in the Middle East, See Section-H, Chapter-1)
Case Study Hegemonic Ambitions of Iran Under the Atoms for Peace initiative of the US since 1953, Iran began to receive support for a nuclear programme. The coming of Ayatollah Khomeini in the 1979 Islamic revolution led to a cancellation of all ongoing nuclear projects. But the subsequent Iran–Iraq war and Gulf War-I compelled Iran not only to restart its nuclear programme but have ambitions to develop a nuclear weapon. This is so because Iran knows that nuclear weaponisation will not only give it an edge in the region, allowing it to exercise hegemony, but will also tilt the power balance in favour of Iranians since Saudi Arabians do not possess any nuclear weapons. The Iranians feel such an attempt would tilt the balance of power towards the Shia axis and strengthen Shia hegemony in the region.
CONCLUSION The diagram below summarises the entire concept.
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4 CHAPTER
Theory of Liberalism
Key thinkers: John Locke, John Burton, J.P. Swell, Paul Taylor, Joseph Nye, Christopher Mitchell, Robert Keohane, Michael Doyre, Karl Deutsch
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Idea of Human Behaviour Foundation of Liberalism in International Relations and Classical Liberalism Four different types of Schools of Liberalism Real life Case Study of Liberalism–US Invasion of Iraq
IDEA OF HUMAN BEHAVIOUR The central explanation of Liberalism is that man has cognitive capabilities to think and undertake reasoning. Accordingly, it is understood that man acts upon self-interest only upto a point as his basic urge is to cooperate. In fact, it will not be wrong to assert that, for the assumptions of liberalism, man is a cooperative animal. Man wants to cooperate for the welfare of others and also for his own intellectual stimulation.
FOUNDATION OF LIBERALISM IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND CLASSICAL LIBERALISM If we apply the idea of Liberalism in IR, we find that the concept of the nation state is premised on cooperation. Liberals are of the philosophical opinion that the state is not merely an instrument of war (as realists would suggest) all the time. They say that the evolution of the state is based upon a well-founded social contract between the individuals and the state itself. The state is composed of individuals. The individuals have capacity to think and the intentionality of that thought is aimed at cooperation with others. The state, as per the social contract, needs to ensure conditions for the growth of the individual. This is possible if one state cooperates with another state. If all the states cooperate for each other’s welfare, there will be peace. The states have to cooperate with other states because, as per the social contract, they have to work for the welfare of individuals within the state, which is deemed impossible if the states remain in a continuous state of warfare and instability. If the state has to create conditions conducive for growth of individuals, it can do so by cooperating with others. This interaction one state undertakes with other state will be based on mutual interest. This interaction can also be facilitated by international organisations. The overall analysis of such interaction leading to cooperation on mutual interests will foster peace. As the interaction between the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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states will deepen, it will lead to interdependency of the states. As the states become interdependent, if a situation of conflict arises, the states will resolve them peacefully and would not opt for war as they would realise that mutual interest and welfare of the people is more important than the ensuing conflict to settle issues. As the states would modernise, the cooperation would increase and chances of war would decrease. Thus, one can clearly outline now that the core of Liberalism revolves around human cognition, freedom cooperation, peace, progress, mutual interest, modernisation and liberal democracy. All these core principles are also well established in the thought of scholars advocating for core liberalism. However, there is a sub-school known as Neo-Liberalism which also accepts all the principles of core Liberalism but is less optimistic about cooperation as envisaged by core liberals. They are neo-liberals in the sense that they go a little beyond man and advocate cooperation on little larger scale:
Neo Liberalism is the school of Liberalism that originated in the time period between 1780 to 1850. This was the time when industrial revolution began and rapidly progressed. The new bunch of scholars emerged on the scene during this period. These scholars were deeply moved by the progress mankind was making at the industrial level. These scholars began to appreciate human capabilities. A wave of enlightenment began as the scholars took appreciation of human cognition. The age of reason asserted that humans have ability to reason and are at the very centre stage of the entire civilisation and universe. This gave birth to the ideas of more progress and a cooperative spirit amongst mankind. This time period also saw cementing of the idea of Classical Realism. The school of Realism is basically explained through four different types.
TYPE A – INTERDEPENDENCY THEORY Here, the dominating principle mainly takes flight from Classical Realism. The idea at the heart of this theory is that, as societies interact, the interaction gradually happens on the basis of shared mutual interest. This interaction leads to interdependence amongst states. This interdependence gradually emerges so strongly that at times of conflict, states prefer reaching resolutions more peacefully rather than going for outright war. In 1970, two scholars, namely Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye, aptly articulated this reasoning in their complex interdependence theory. They said as the societies modernise, it will lead to greater integration amongst societies. This will put societies on the path of interdependence amongst each other. In case a conflict may arise, the society will resort to negotiations through non-military skills than war. The societies will strive to make peace due to mutual interest and interdependency. Such cooperation will lead to a conflict free world.
TYPE B – INSTITUTIONAL LIBERAL MECHANISM As the name clearly suggests, the focus, in this case, is on institutional mechanisms as tools for achieving mutual cooperation. As per this type, international organisations are platforms for states to interact and as states interact on this platform, the institution fosters https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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cooperation amongst them. The main reason why a state may resort to interaction at an institutional level is that a state may fear non-compliance. Thus, it feels that intervention at an international institution will foster cooperation and the institutional mechanism may foster compliance. Even if the states are unwilling at first, gradually, through shared goals and achievements, they should steadily become more and more compliant of international laws and dispute resolution can be embarked upon peacefully through these platforms.
TYPE C – SOCIOLOGICAL LIBERALISM This type of Liberalism says that the study of IR should not be restricted to just the study of the nation states and relations between them. It takes a much broader view to assert that IR should be concerned with multiple actors like studies of different people, groups, civil society organisations, and so forth. Sociological Liberalism asserts that within a state, all these multiple actors also interact and cooperate. This emphasises the plural character of international dialogues and also lends the same pluralism to the understanding and expounding of Liberalism. In the era of globalisation, the interaction in a state happens amongst multiple transnational’s actors and this interaction tremendously increases integration. A scholar by the name Karl Deutsch has contributed to Sociological Liberalism by undertaking a study of the impact of rising communication and transaction (CNT) between peoples and societies. He says that those societies that may interact more (where more interaction could be, for instance, due to tourism between the two states, trade between them or movement of labour), may undertake more transactions amongst each other and this incremental rise in communication and transaction between them will lead to more unification. As the societies unify, when in conflict, they shall resort to peaceful ways of conflict resolution than war, as transactions and communications between states have caused such cooperation and neither state will be willing to easily sacrifice these beneficial modalities of exchange.
TYPE D – REPUBLICAN LIBERALISM The basic core of Republican Liberalism is that democracy and Liberalism can combine together to create a peaceful global environment. This theory explains that those societies which are democratic are more transparent and open and are based on the rule of law. In these societies, the decision making is done more openly, in a transparent manner and the states are deemed to be law abiding. But do democracies fight wars? The answer is, at once, both yes and no. They don’t fight wars amongst themselves at all. But they do see dictatorial regimes as a threat. The reason they see dictatorial regimes as a threat is because in these regimes, there is no transparency in decision making. Secondly, in these regimes, a dictator may resort to deception, thus making democracies more vulnerable to dictators and their political whimsicalities. In this kind of a situation, democracies may take resort to replacing these dictator regimes and replacing them with parties amenable to their policies and the international statutes to bring about nation building and promote democracy, failing which, they may even go so far as to install puppet governments so that long term peace may be achieved in the region. Unfortunately, this may not always have the desired results, leading to more conflicts and global unrest in some cases (refer to the ensuing case studies in this chapter). https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Thus, as per the study of four types of Neo-Liberalism, we can clearly articulate that broadly, the theory talks about globalism and the world order. According to neo-liberals, it is the interaction amongst the states that establishes the world order and not the balance of power. The world does witness global problems which could crop up in the shape of global warming, drug trafficking, black money, and so on. These are problems which individual countries cannot solve. They require cooperation as states’ own resources are too limited to enable them to solve these problems on their own. The only solution for the states is to interact amongst themselves. As they interact and coordinate, they strive to establish a global consensus to cooperate and solve the problems. A global consensus, however, is only possible if the states apply prioritisation of their demands first and secondly, undertake a process of transparent decision making in a democratic set-up to achieve consensus on the aforementioned priorities. In 1972, a scholar named John Burton summarised the difference between Realism and Liberalism through his billiard ball model. While Realism is envisaged as an arena of relatively independent state actors (such as self-controlled units in an enclosed space, like balls on a billiard table), Liberalism is a complex mosaic of multiple actors causing deep interactions, integrations and cooperations.
REAL LIFE CASE STUDY OF LIBERALISM—US INVASION OF IRAQ This case is well explained through the Republican Liberalism typology of NeoLiberalism. Here, a democracy establishes the (apparent or perceived) threat of a dictatorial society as a dictator may resort to deception and non-transparency. US developed a fear that Iraq, under dictatorial rule, could be a threat to its sovereignty. Iraq under Saddam Husain, had used chemical weapons in the first Gulf War. The fear that Iraq was in possession of weapons of mass destruction grew relentlessly as time progressed. It was believed that Iraq, being a dictatorial country, would resort to deception of the inspectors of IAEA. This fear compelled US to invade Iraq to remove the dictator and secure peace. The post-war Iraq saw promotion of democracy and exercise of nation building in Iraq. However, in the long term, it has led to an increased unrest on a regional scale, with several patches of territory in Iraq compromised due to factional dispute; while on the global scale, it has contributed to the steady rise infanaticism and terrorism.
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5 CHAPTER
Theory of Functionalism Thinkers: David Mitrany, Ernst Haas, A.J.R. Groom
Idea of Human Behaviour: The idea of human behaviour is similar to ideas propounded by the school of liberalism. The basic idea is that man, by nature, is cooperative. Origin: Functionalism has emerged as an alternative school to Neo-Realism and has its roots deep in the school of liberalism.
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Foundation of functionalism School in International Relations Neo-Functionalism Real life case study
FOUNDATION OF FUNCTIONALISM SCHOOL IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS The key scholar in this field is David Mitrany. He is of the view that, firstly, transnational actors play a key role in a stable world order. This is the case because transnational actors seek cooperation through the integration of societies. To run these transactional actors, we require technicians and not laymen politicians. Secondly, he says that nation states, by themselves, do not foster the cooperation we need to establish non-political cooperative groups. We can start creating such groups at a micro-level, for instance, health, education, and so on, and then replicate such non-political groups upward at a macro-level for culture, transport, and so forth. David Mitrany says the non-political cooperative groups are based on mutual interests of the states. Thus, they do not cause any resistance amongst states. The reason that Mitrany advocates beginning at a micro-level and proceeding ahead upward is due to the spill-over effect. He says that success in such non-political cooperative groups at micro-level is bound to automatically push a state to establish more such groups in other dimensions and as this cooperation from micro to regional level will increase, there will be more cooperation and peace, and subsequently the relevance of nation states will decrease.
NEO-FUNCTIONALISM Neo-Functionalism wants to advocate integration of the existing nation states, unlike functionalists who prefer to render nation states into museums of institutional curiosity. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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They prefer political interaction and the fostering of cooperative decision making. The scholar Ernst Haas, a neo functionalist, adds that the way forward to have a completely integrated community functionalism is that rulers agree to surrender some sovereignty and pool resources for growth.
REAL LIFE CASE STUDY A classical example of Functionalism is Ernst Haas’s explanation of European Union where state leaders have surrendered some sovereign powers for the growth of the entire union. (For detailed analysis, see Section-H, Chapter 4).
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6 CHAPTER
Theory of Marxism
Core Thinkers: Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin, Joseph Stalin, Robert Cox, Immanuel Wallerstein, Antonio Gramsci
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Idea of Human Behaviour and Society Foundation of Marxism in International Relations Idea of Lenin and Power Re-distribution Idea of Gramsci Idea of Cox Idea of Wallerstein Marxism and Economic Crisis of 2008.
IDEA OF HUMAN BEHAVIOUR AND SOCIETY Marxism offers a very distinct analysis in contrast to Realism or Liberalism as it takes the study of class to the very deepest levels of societal structures. In IR, Marxist theory advances that all that happens in the world is due to certain structures which exert influence on states compelling them to behave in the way they do. To understand IR, we need to understand these structures.
Foundation of Marxism in International Relations For Karl Marx, the study of the social world needs to be a study of totality. By totality, he means that individual study of disciplines such as history, economics, politics and so on leads us to an incomplete understanding of society and the world, as to better understand the social world, these disciplines need to be studied together. Marx believed that any change in history is driven by a change in the economic development of a nation, and history is further characterised by the class struggle that ensues between the moneyed capitalist classes and the poorer labour/proletariat classes. Marx propounds, through works such as essays (‘Wage Labour and Capital’) and books (Das Kapital Volume One, 1867) that, in a society, there are two concepts—factors of production and relations of production. These two factors interact and produce tensions and the tensions both produce and determine the history of the society. As societies progress, the means of production in the societies also change. The old traditional methods of production become outdated and redundant, and this puts a certain kind of pressure on the society. The market institution is based on a simple rule of exchange whereby individuals, https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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through a legal tender called currency, are able to exchange goods in lieu of that currency. The legal tender called money is an instrument of exchange regulated by the government. This brings the state into the fold of economy. This means that the state provides a legally recognised instrument to allow transactions in the market, which indicates that the state and the market are interacting. This interaction is at the core of international political economy. But economy was never the core field of study of IR. We can already appreciate, as per our understanding of chapters two, three and four, that initially, after the World Wars, the situation warranted prevention of another war. The idea was that avoidance of war and maintenance of peace is far more important in any study of IR. This relegated economy to get a secondary position. This fact is very succinctly put by Charles de Gaulle of France. He once pointed out that statesmen should focus on war and peace issues as the economy can be handled by ‘lesser minds’. Economy as a core domain in the study of IR has gained more significance since the end of the cold war and onset of the ways of globalisation. Infact, the need arose from the 1970’s to bring in the economic paradigm and link it to IR. In the 1970’s, we first witnessed a prolonged US-Vietnam war. This caused tremendous drain of resources. This was coupled with the oil crises of 1973 which again made US economy vulnerable. Then the financial stress of USSR in the management of East Europe was witnessed during the times of Gorbachev and the end of the cold war. The subsequent US supremacy again brought economy to a firm footing as globalisation began. Thus, economy became important in the study of society or polity. It is in 16 /17 century that the new ideology of Mercantilism began to emerge. It advocated that politics should use economics as a tool for power acquisition. It emphasised that the world is an area of conflict as each state has its own national interest and all national interests of states are opposed to each other as national interests are not based on cooperation or gain for anyone. The situation is that states compete at the economic level with each other in the world making it a zero sum game. It is a zero sum game because the gain of one state is the loss of the other. This theory is at the core of Mercantilism. Mercantilism also advocates a state to be careful of the gain another state makes because a gain made at an economic level by another state will lead to the state gaining military strength. This military power that a state is able to achieve is the result of a strong economy. This military power now can be used by the state to colonise territories and again increase its economic power. This is why governmental regulations of a state’s finances and economic profits is necessarily tied in with the eventual desired augmentation of state power. th
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This will enable the state to acquire more national wealth. Thus a strong economy enables a state to pursue the twin goals of wealth and power simultaneously. The Mercantile ideology has evolved over a period of time. In the 16 century, when Spain was able to acquire bullion from its colonisation of America, the mercantilists argued that states should acquire bullion to be powerful. But gradually, as Netherlands began to acquire wealth by a vast overseas territorial trade, the mercantilists argued that states should acquire wealth through trade and by building a surplus. The next step of the evolution came when Britain began wealth acquisition by virtue of the industrialisation of its economy. This gave mercantilists a chance to argue that nations should focus on industrialisation and gain wealth but to do so, the state should take measures to ensure th
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protection and development of local industries, giving birth to the idea of protectionism. Gradually economic liberalism began. It advocated a situation where a market is allowed to operate freely without political interference. This school is of the view that the market should be allowed to operate freely to provide goods and services in an economy. Political interventions by the states, which would merely create conflict, came to be understood as retrogressive and thus avoidable. This system came to be known as laissezfaire (free market trade without the interference from governments). The idea was that no one country could possibly be successful in producing everything. Each has a specific specialisation in something or the other and if there is free trade, this specialisation will enable economic interaction leading to trade and increase in global wealth. The way this school differs from the mercantilists is that economic liberalism puts the individual consumer at the centre stage and defines the role of the state as an agency. The idea is that the individual is always willing to maximise his interests and his interests are maximised only in a free market economy. Many early economic liberals advocated laissez faire—a situation where the markets operate freely and there is no political restriction. But we need to remember that market may not always operate freely. At times it may not work for mutual gain of all. For example, during the recent drive of odd-even scheme in New Delhi in 2016, the private cab operators took the odd-even scheme as an opportunity and this led to surge pricing. Such a situation is called market failure and to rectify this, we needed political regulation. Thus the modern and more acceptable view is that we do need the free markets but also a certain amount of regulation by the state in the management of the economy is desirable. Now if we look at the basic tenets of Marxism, it states that, firstly, economy is a place where humans are exploited and there is class inequality. For Marx, economy is based on two social classes—the capitalist class which owns the factors of productions and strives for profit maximisation; and the labour class, which sells itself to the capitalists to survive. The labour makes profit for the capitalist and the capitalist does not share the profit leading to labour exploitation. Marx believes that capitalism is a step forward from feudalism. The reason being that in feudalism, the serf was attached to the land and had little choice in choosing his master. Surprisingly, in many cases during the feudal era, when the land was sold from one feudal lord to the other, the serfs were attached and sold along with the land to the new feudal lord. Marx says that capitalism is at least better in the sense that the labour at least has some degree of choice and is free to decide to whom he would sell his labour power to. But Marx also predicted that a time will come when the labour class or proletariat will overthrow the capitalist or bourgeoisie class and takeover the means of production. Marx stated that each state is driven by interests of the ruling class and the interests of the ruling class impacts the state power structure deeply. Thus, if there is a capitalist class and if the state fights a war, we need to understand the concept of class interest in the war as the capitalist class is based on profit maximisation and the urge to generate profit is a never ending urge. Thus, Marx’s theory believes that capitalism is a repressive machinery because, in its urge to make more profit, it will gradually move to those nations to explore new markets and options that grant it an opportunity to make further profit. This aptly explains why Mercantilism and Economic Liberalism caused cultural https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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imperialism and colonisation of a new order which is now reflected in the 21 century under the dominant trends of globalisation by Trans National Corporations in their hunt for cheap labour and more profit in the Third World countries. Thus, globalisation is an example of capitalist expansion in 21 century. st
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Case Study Lenin and Power Re-distribution Lenin analysed the economic process and puts it aptly. Lenin said that in 18 /19 century, British made colonies, practised imperialism and became a strong political force to contend with. However, in the beginning of the 20 century, when Germany became an economic powerhouse after its unification and rose to a strength similar to Britain, it demanded its share in the colonies by announcing its policy of colonial expansion under Weltpolitik. Lenin explains that this is part of a natural process as when one power economically expands, it will demand re-division of the sphere of influences for its own benefit and such disparities invariably bring conflict, as has been witnessed between the British and the Germans, finally climaxing in the World War-I. th
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To enhance our understanding at this juncture, we may also consider the writings of Antonio Gramsci. Gramsci wanted to study as to why it was difficult to promote a revolution in Western Europe as Marx says that an advanced industrial society will eventually undergo a social revolution. He wanted to analyse why a nonindustrial, backward Russia had succeeded in the revolutions while industrialised Western Europe had failed. To explain this, Gramsci studied the entire phenomena through the lens of hegemony in his Prison Notebooks. Gramsci understood that power is a mixture of coercion and consent. He explained that the primary focus of Marx was on study of coercion and how a coercive society exploits the majority. He analysed the situation in Western Europe, and found that there, power was driven by consent as well. Gramsci says that in a society where hegemony is consent dominated, the ruling capitalist class first tries to control all cultural, moral and political values. Then they take steps to disperse these values amongst different classes in the society. In this value dispersion, the civil society plays an important role as civil society provides a platform for interaction of the masses with the dominant group. The interaction helps in enhancing the understanding of the thoughts of the masses. A little bit of modification allows the dominant class to make its values acceptable to all and thus maintain the legitimacy of its power over society through what he calls ‘cultural hegemony’. Thus, once the values are accepted, the superstructure is moulded, and the masses help in maintaining status quo rather than revolting against it. Gramsci propounds that Marx focussed only on the study of the base, but the study of superstructure cannot be negated as the superstructure in this case is moral and cultural values. Thus, Gramsci asserts that a study is valid only if it takes into account both the superstructure and socioeconomic base. For the political hegemony of the dominant class to be challenged, the transformation can only happen if counter hegemonic structures emerge in a society and civil society allows alternative historical blocs to emerge. The scholar, Robert W. Cox has further developed the core argument of Gramsci. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Cox has also criticised existing IR theories and developed an alternative. The first thing Cox asserted was that theory is always for someone and for some purpose. He says theory is always a reflection of context, time and space. Thus, the knowledge is not timeless as we need to study theories propounded till date. Cox asserts that theorists often serve interests of those rules under whom they prosper and try in some or other way to reinforce and legitimise the status quo and make the society believe that IR can follow a very naturalised set of laws. In his book, Production, Power and the World Order (1987), Cox argues that the concept of hegemony is important to understand the power structures of the world and the behaviour of nations. He says we have an international system where there is a world which is dominated by the Anglo-US axis and they have developed a world order that suits the axis. The Anglo-US axis has not only maintained hegemony only through coercion but also through consent, where the consent generated is making all nations virtually believe that free trade is beneficial for all societies. The fact is that this idea of free trade being beneficial is even accepted by societies who are inherently disadvantaged by free trade. But Cox asserts (like Marx) that soon there will be counter hegemonic movements to challenge this common sense notion of free trade being beneficial for all. These views of Cox to some extent are extensively argued by another neo-Marxist scholar, Immanuel Wallerstein. His theory is based on the idea of world system analysis. He says that the world is made up of unified areas, and in each unified area, we witness an interaction between politics and economics. He says there are two types of world systems. One is called ‘World Empire System’, where politics and economics are under a unified control; for example the Holy Roman Empire. The second is the ‘World Economic System’. Here the economies are unified but politics is decentralised. Wallerstein, in his model, argues that the capitalist world economy is divided in a hierarchy. We have core areas on the top where we have a mass market and a strong state. In core areas we have very advanced agricultural. Then at the other end, we have peripheral areas which produce basic stuff like wood, sugar, grain, and so on. Then there are semi peripheral areas which, due to their contacts with the core and peripheral areas, have succeeded in building an indigenous industrial base and successfully act as a buffer. The basic working model of the capitalist world economic system is through unequal exchange where surplus flows from the periphery to the core. In the periphery, the weak state is subdued by the strong state and the surplus appropriation is enacted by enforcement of the strong state. This creates a tension in the system. The tension is diffused by semi peripheral states which act as shock absorbers or buffers. But Wallerstein asserts that, in the long run, all this will lead to an end of the capitalist system because a time will come when the quest to expand will halt, producing crisis. Every World System has a beginning, middle and an end phase. Wallerstein argues that with the end of the Cold War, the world system has entered the crises stage which originated with 16 century geographical discoveries. th
Case Study The Economic Crisis in 2008 At the end of the Cold War, it was argued that the Marxist paradigm is finished as USSR has collapsed. The other economies like Cuba, China and so on, have transited https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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into being more market friendly economies. No doubt initially, after the Cold War ended, Marxism did decline, but today we witness a kind of a renaissance as we witness an analysis of 1987 stock crash, Asian financial crisis, US subprime crisis or the more recent European crisis. All these instances deeply open up the consequences of the capitalist system itself. The 2008 financial crisis is a classic example. The crisis that erupted in the banking system led the state to undertake a bailout. As the states are highly indebted after they offered the bailout, states resorted to austerity. The austerity caused a rise in unemployment, ultimately posing a threat to the political system. David Harvey aptly summarises the phenomena—‘privatise profits, socialise risks, save banks, but put screws on the people’. In US, this crisis in 2011 manifested as the Occupy movement where protestors highlighted the social disparity and inequality on streets, with an overarching slogan of ‘We are the 99%’.
End of Section Questions 1. How have transnational actors emerged as driving forces of global politics? 2. Discuss the impact of Balance of Power on global politics. Do you think Balance of Power is full of confusion? 3. Marxist approach adopts the approach of economic reductionism. Do you agree? 4. Why are Idealists known as intellectual precursors of Realists? 5. Examine the explanation offered by Realists of the 9/11 wars. 6. Can it be stated that Realism is an ideology of powerful states? Discuss. 7. “International Relations are inhospitable to liberalism.” (Stanley Hoffmann). Discuss. 8. Apply the Marxism theory to argue that USA as a power is in decline. 9. How does Marxism theory help our understanding of world politics? 10. Superiority of liberal institutions and values is reflected in the ascendency of democratic regimes. Examine.
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Section C Making and Origin of the Indian Foreign Policy Chapter 1 Indian Foreign Policy in Ancient Times and India’s Strategic Thought Chapter 2 An Overview of Indian Foreign Policy from British Time till Nehru Chapter 3 Determinants and the Formation of Indian Foreign Policy Chapter 4 Overview of Indian Foreign Policy from Nehru Till the Present
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1 CHAPTER
Indian Foreign Policy in Ancient Times and India’s Strategic Thought
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: India’s strategic culture and its key elements Concept of Grand Strategy Ramayana and India Foreign Policy Why is Hanuman called India’s First Diplomat Kautilya’s Arthashastra in Indian Foreign Plolicy Application of Kautilyan ideology to 1962 Indo-China war Conception of National Power
INTRODUCTION The 21st century is aptly called the Asian Century, and India is being one of the key Asian players has a great responsibility. It can act as a great stabilizer and power projector. Before we attempt an analysis of India’s relation with the world, our concern should be to analyse and see whether India has any strategic culture. As we shall study in this entire unit, India’s Foreign Policy till now has had a high degree of consistency since independence. What is unique is that this has been the case despite different ideologies being in power over the last decades. This continuity hints at the presence of a strategic autonomy in the political ethos which is based on its civilization. One of the key elements is the cooperative behaviour India intends to achieve through peaceful resolution of conflicts as India gives preference to dialogue over coercion or violence. This point is most visible in India–Pakistan relationship, wherein one of the governments will initiate a dialogue, and then due to irritants posed by non-state actors, the dialogue will be halted. The act of non-state actor will increase suspicion between the two states. But again, after normalization, the two will resort to initiating dialogue. The most important aim India intends to achieve in its strategic culture is socio-political cum economic justice for all in the decolonised world.
Another key linked to its strategic culture is grand strategy. A grand strategy is an aggregation of national resources and national capacity of a country. It includes a https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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combination of military, diplomatic, political, economic, cultural and moral capabilities a nation deploys in the service of national security. A grand strategy is all about protection of domestic values. Every state has certain values and to uphold those values are the primary goals of every state. But as a state cannot protect all values, it resorts to satisfactorily protecting the few it holds most sacred. In case the value of a state may be threatened, say by a non-state actor or an act of nature like an earthquake or tsunamis, how the state manages to restore the value threatened is our concern here. The combination of its capabilities the state may deploy to protect its internal and external security is known as grand strategy. This takes us to strategic thought. Strategic thought signifies the resources a government has (like diplomacy, military, economic strength, cultural values, etc) and the way it uses these resources to achieve security for the society. For India, strategic thought means certain values and preferences which leads to the state evolving some ideas and using these ideas in its policies and approaches in foreign policy.
THE RAMAYANA AND INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY If we study The Ramayana, our ancient Indian epic, we get to know that there are many principles of modern diplomacy we follow today that owe their origin to the text. Our concerns in this section are to deduce the principles of modern diplomacy originating from The Ramayana. As readers are possibly already aware, in this ancient epic, Sita, the wife of Ram, is kidnapped by Ravana, the king of Lanka. Ram entrusts on Hanuman the responsibility to locate Sita. Hanuman, who is able to locate Sita in Lanka, first tries to convince her that he is an agent of Ram and not that of Ravana. Once he convinces Sita that he has been sent by Ram, Sita conveys a message to Hanuman and Hanuman delivers the message back to Ram. From this situation, we may infer that Hanuman, who delivered the message to Ram of Sita, is seen to be doing what a diplomat does in modern times. In modern times, diplomats are called information agents. They carry information from one state and convey it to their own parent state. As the diplomats carry sensitive information, when they deliver it, the diplomats must provide a truthful account. They must not distort or manipulate information. This is precisely what Hanuman did. He carried the information to Ram and delivered the message without distortion. The next scene that is important for us is the court scene where Hanuman argues with Ravana to liberate Sita. He initiates his dialogue by telling Ravana about the power of Ram. He tells Ravana of how popular Ram is back in Ayoddhya. He informs the enemy about his leadership and his followership. He is thereby indulging in something called power projection. He is projecting the power of Ram in front of Ravana. During ancient and medieval times in world history, power projection was always individual in nature. It meant that diplomats, during this time, always undertook power projection of an individual personality which was always invariably their own king. For instance, if a king in South India during ancient times sent a diplomatic mission to another state, says in West Asia or East Africa, the diplomat used to project the might of his king in the court of the other king. The diplomat would glorify his own king’s power, and his military prowess and his territorial extent. That is why we say that in ancient and medieval times, power projection was always individual and personality-centric in nature. During the early modern times of colonial rule, the coercive elements of power projection https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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diplomacy emerged. However in the modern times today, power projection is more economic in nature. However, power projection continues owing its origins to the epic discussed.
Now in another scene we find Hanuman telling Ravana that it is against Dharma to keep Sita in captivity over a long period of time and if Ravana does not liberate Sita, Ram may burn Lanka into ashes. To this, Ravana reacts angrily and orders that Hanuman should be put to death. But Ravana’s brother Vibheeshana says, that Hanuman, who has come to Lanka as an emissary from a foreign state cannot be put to death. This emerges as the first ever instance of diplomatic immunity. This practice continues in modern times even today.
THE ARTHASHASTRA AND INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY It is important to understand Kautilya’s Arthashastra as it is an Indian treatise on statecraft and diplomacy and also gives valuable insights into our international relations and foreign policy. Kautilya is India’s own realist as his ideas resonate with realism. Realism, for example, Kautilya says, is when a state, as an instrument, focusses on power enhancement as the international situation is one of anarchy. In this context, the policy of the state should be to acquire power. This is also the basis of theory of Realism we have. For Kautilya, the state is the most important and legitimate instrument which enjoys sovereignty. The responsibility of the king is to guard his subjects and ensure their protection and survival. This should be the primary national interest of the state. The core objective of the state is to acquire wealth, deliver justice and undertake expenditure. A state has to be strong and to be strong it needs good administration, stability and justice. This results in a conducive situation for wealth creation and leads to military expeditions for conquests. Kautilya talks about how a strong state is needed to create wealth. The wealth in the state is generated by an elaborate taxation machinery. The Dharma of the king is the welfare of the people. If the king is unable to make the people prosper, it is inevitable that people will become restless and they will rebel. The rebellion can take any form, including that of violence. Thus, the primary focus of the king should be welfare. Welfare can only be occasioned by the king if he takes steps to promote wealth creation as wealth augments power. The Kautilyan idea of national interest is, therefore, based on welfare of people. If people prosper, so will the state. Kautilya’s concept of power begins https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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from society. He says power is of three kinds. The first is intellectual strength. Kautilya’s grand strategy is based on the idea that the king needs to be a conqueror. He needs to aim to increase his power over neighbours. The king is envisaged as a ‘Chakravartin’. Chakravartin (in Sanskrit cakravartin, and in Pali cakkavattin) is an ancient Indian term used to refer to an ideal universal ruler who rules ethically and benevolently over the entire world. Such a ruler’s reign is called sarvabhauma. The goal of such a king is to promote national economy and ensure national security and social order. The state is primarily agrarian in nature. Cattle rearing and agriculture are primary activities. This leads to production of surplus which leads to trade. As trade is undertaken, economy is strengthened. A strong economy sustains the state and the army. To develop this kind of a state, which is based on powerful agrarian economy, the state needs to conquer new lands. The king undertakes expeditions to conquer new lands. The new lands conquered would allow citizens to expand opportunities to earn livelihood. This is the Dharma of the ruler. The goal of the ruler is a stable state which needs to be achieved for the welfare of citizens and to achieve such a state, the ruler is responsible for good governance. Governance is a means to achieve the aforementioned goals, as well as to achieve social harmony. At the foreign policy level, Kautilya has a different thought. As stated previously, the ruler has to be a conqueror (Chakravartin). If he has to be a conqueror, then war is a natural outcome of his foreign policy. Kautilya says that the ruler has to be careful because his immediate neighbours are enemy states who are jealous of the social harmony and progress of the ruler and his kingdom. Thus, conflicts with neighbours are likely to be natural and to resolve the conflict the king has to decide if he would resort to conciliation and give gifts to another state to make it an ally, or sow dissension and use force if needed. All this depends upon the power of the king and options for war available to discussion and use of force when the need arises. Kautilya propounds that the power exuded by the state is of three types. The first is individual power. This is the power and courage of the king. This is psychological in nature. The second is hard power. This is the military and economic capacity of the ruler and the state. The third is soft power. This is the diplomatic power of the ruler. Kautilya says that before a ruler declares war on an enemy state, he should measure his power. The ruler, before the declaration of war, should ensure that he possesses superiority over all three levels i.e., terrain of warfare (place), season and his own counsellors. Hence, if a ruler is intelligent and moral and has good counsel, he will win diplomatically. If a ruler has adequate economic and military strength he will win on the basis of physical power and achieve physical success (application of hard power). The ruler, Kautilya says, should strive for soft power rather than hard power. Depending upon the situation, he has three types of war to wage. The first is Dharma-yudha which is outright, righteous war, fought while following certain predetermined rules. The second option is alternative to Dharama-yudha which is war by deception. There is no lawful framework governing this war. The third is silent warfare where a state undertakes war without public attention. Kautilya also says that aim of the state should be to expand national power. This can be done by conquests or alliances. The components of national power are called prakritis. There are seven components, viz, https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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political leadership, administration, resources, infrastructure, economy, security forces and alliances. The ruler should use hard, soft and individual power to expand national power. So, shakti and prakriti if used prudently, leads to rise of comprehensive national power.
Case Study Kautilya and Indo-Pak War of 1948 and Indo-China War of 1962 In the preceding section we have attempted to explain how Kautilya’s Arthashastra was used by Chandragupta Maurya to defeat Nanda and also to stop the advancement of Alexander, leading to the formation of a united India. Kautilya has explained state priorities and economic conditions and has propounded that the power of the state rests on seven prakritis and if any one of the seven Prakritis is weak, the state is fragile. We need to understand the contemporary security environment by applying his theories. According to the political theories of Max Weber, a state could be said to “succeed” if it maintains a monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force within its borders. When this is broken (for instance, through the dominant presence of warlords, paramilitary groups, or terrorism), the very existence of the state becomes dubious, and the state becomes a failed state. Political scholar Querine Hanlon says that states are of three categories—weak, failing and failed. Hanlon says that half of this world is in fragile category today and it is that leads to instability conflict and war which provide conditions for terrorism, militias and crime in 21st century. Fund for Peace’s Fragile States Index underlines the democratic character of state institutions in order to determine its level of failure. An application of Kautilya’s ideas in 1948 Indo-Pak war explains the relevance of terrain, weather conditions and strategy as important dimensions. In August 1947, British rule in India came to an end. The state of Jammu and Kashmir was not clear. In October 1947, Pakistan, through tribal Pathans, began to invade Kashmir. Sensing a security threat, Hari Singh, Maharaja of Kashmir, acceded to India by signing an Instrument of Accession. The conflict between India and Pakistan on Kashmir ended on 1st January, 1949 with an agreed ceasefire. The ceasefire created a Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) region. The Indian Army could have marched ahead in POK zone to drive out Pakistan but the hostile climate and Pakistani guerrilla tactics prevented India from taking these measures. Kautilya clarifies that a state should not go and fight in an area which has a territory which is ungovernable. The inhospitable terrain of POK and its hostile climate made India land up in a situation where it could not, finally, capture POK. The logistics kept India back while poor military infrastructure compounded upon it to complicate issues. The two concepts of Kautilya, Bhumisandhi (not entering in territory which is ungovernable) and Vyasana (a state needs to take precautions and ensure logistics before war) were both missing. In case of the 1962 conflict with China, which ultimately concluded in a ceasefire in Arunanchal, the Chinese had indeed reached the foothills but retreated because the people of Arunanchal did not support China and from the Bhumisandhi point of view, China refrained from getting into the business of capturing land (Arunachal) which was deemed ungovernable. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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2 CHAPTER
An Overview of Indian Foreign Policy from British Time till Nehru
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Role of British in Indian Foreign Policy Instances of British assertion of Grand Strategy Indian Foreign Policy till 1947 Early years of Indian Foreign Policy Final Analysis
INTRODUCTION In the year 1600, the East India Company was formed in Britain to trade with India. The British subsequently acquired control of the Indian territory. The Regulating Act of 1773 is a landmark Act as it marks the establishment of British control over the Presidencies of Bengal, Bombay and Madras. The Act of 1773 also made the Governor of Bengal as the Governor General of British possessions in India. The British primarily aimed to ensure that no European power threatens British presence in India. The British, to control India, used three instruments of national power, namely, industry, navy and their world-wide empire. While establishing control over India, the British first consolidated their position and succeeded in its completion by 1856. The year 1857 saw the Great Indian Mutiny and the consequent transfer of power to the crown and this consolidated the British hold over Indian subjects. From then onwards, the British developed a colony in India, used its men and material resources and undertook plunder of its resources. By early 1900’s, a nationalist tendency developed in India. Subsequently, the Acts of 1919 and 1935 secured successful participation of Indians in World War–I and helped in prolonging British rule in India without an aim of self-governance. Up till 1947, the Indian Foreign Policy was used by the British as per British interests. The British, in this period, applied their grand strategy which was based on securing trade routes and using the resources of India for self-benefit. The Government of India enjoyed liberty in decision making but foreign policy was decided in London as per British interests.
British Indian Diplomacy In this sub section we will have a look at various instances of British Indian diplomacy. In each instance the British tried to assert their Grand Strategy. Instance–1: In 1798, Napoleon invaded Egypt. Napoleon also planned, with the thenRussian Czar Alexander–I, in 1807 to invade India. The Russian Czar and Napoleon concluded the Treaty of Titlist to achieve their objectives. When the British got to know https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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about this treaty, they sent friendly missions to secure Muscat, Afghanistan, Persia, Sindh and safely secured all routes to the British Empire in India. Instance–2: The British decided to manage the entire stretch of land border by establishing a semicircle from Iran to Burma and the Indian Government decided that except Iran, the foreign relations of all states would be decided by the British Crown. They adopted the policy of a buffer establishment. The idea was to protect one nation by making its neighbour a buffer from outside interference. This policy was followed since 1880’s. The buffer was not a satellite state— it had its sovereign government internally but its external sovereignty was under British control. For example, in 1902 Lord Lansdowne also clarified that a buffer state prevents direct contact between the British and other states. The entire system of these buffers was called the system of rising fence. In the outer rising fence were Iran, Afghanistan and Tibet and in the inner were Nepal, Bhutan and Ceylon. By this method, the British successfully kept China and Russia at bay. Instance–3: China, in the mid-17 century, was ruled by the Qing dynasty. It ruled over major areas in China but Tibet and Xinjiang were sovereign territories. The British had control over Tibet, Nepal and Bhutan as buffers. These territories were neither princely states nor colonies and the British maintained separate treaties with each of them. For the British, Tibet was not very important till early 1700. Over a period of time, some Tibetan monks had established relations with the Tsar in Russia. In 1899, Lord Curzon decided to send an expedition to Tibet for fear that the Tzar may use Tibetans to foment trouble for the British. In 1903, the expedition left for Lhasa. But in 1904, when they reached Tibet, Dalai Lama fled to Mongolia. The British subsequently signed a convention in 1904 and made Tibet a British protectorate with Tibet remaining under the Qing Dynasty. From then onwards, Qing Dynasty ruled over it but Tibet was a British Protectorate. After the Tibetan revolt in 1912, the British in 1914 undertook a survey and established a map and demarcated, using a red line, the Indo–Tibet boundary. th
Instance–4: At the international level, post-World War I, India was a part of Imperial war conference and signed the Treaty of Versailles and subsequently became a member of League of Nations and ILO. India, surprisingly, was the one and only non-self-governing nation of the world in the League of Nations and after the World War II, India became a UN member in 1945 while still under British rule. India had also participated in the Bretten-Woods Conference in 1944.
MAKING OF FOREIGN POLICY TILL 1947 International relations with respect to India began to develop in the latter half of the nineteenth century. Below are the three broad views that originated laid foundation of our foreign policy:
As Indian nationalism became stronger, India developed the idea that India should strive for human liberty and brotherhood and nationalism assumed a global character as https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Gandhi entered the scene. Ahimsa became a new line of thought. After 1947, there was further clarity on foreign policy. Idealism and world peace were established as stated goals by India’s non-alignment movement and were rooted in ideology of non-violence and nonaggression. The Constituent Assembly debates talked about foreign policy twice. Firstly it debated Article 51 in the constitution that strives to promote international peace and security by having honourable relations with all and respect to international peace and security by having honourable relations with all and respect to international treaties, laws and encouraged that disputes be settled by arbitration. This view of Article 51 was recognized by Biswanath Das and B M Khardekar as combined legacy of India’s spiritual heritage. The second instance was that of the issue of India’s membership to the Commonwealth (elaborated as a case study in India–Britain relations chapter). The nationalist leaders favoured a united Asia and an Asian Federation. In 1930, the first Pan Asiatic Federation Conference happened as well. As the WW II ended, the establishment of UN translated the Indian idea of an Asian Federation into a World Federation. The Congress had established an outlook on the world since 1885. Initially, the idea was to use the support of the British to get Indians in the administration and then use it as a bargaining chip. India supported the British against Russia but Indian leaders knew that Russia would not attack India. India opposed the British advancement in the North East as territorial aggression. After WW I, India supported the idea of ‘Right to Self Determination’ and democracy but as the British refused to extend it to India, the leaders felt disillusioned. The tilt towards leftist ideology grew during the interwar period and finally emerged in the post-independence period under Non-Aligned Movement or NAM.
EARLY YEARS OF INDEPENDENT FOREIGN POLICY The foreign policy of a nation is always conducted within a context and a time period and the past always plays an important role in its formulation. When we say time period, it signifies the way the nations of the world are behaving as of then, and when world politics displays a certain trend in behaviour, the way India behaves vis-à-vis those trends. When India became independent, its first priority was to focus on economic rebuilding. As a nation state, India realised that a strong economic foundation is the key to great power. India, under Nehru, initiated the Idea to remain non-aligned. India asserted that it would not align to US or USSR but would neither antagonise the US or the USSR and would engage with both the countries. The USSR never invited India to be a part of the communist camp while India always perceived capitalism to be a form of imperialism and hence decided to stay away from it. The only middle course available for our foreign policy was to be Non Aligned. The basic spirit of non-alignment was to undertake interaction with all without identifying the nation state as either one or the other affiliate.
India continued to maintain an equidistant political stance from two competing ideologies, yet undertake engagement with both powers and their allies. Nehru vested a lot https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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of faith in the UN and according to him, the UN would take the world out of the present crises. Nehru perceived the UN to be not only a world organization but a world Parliament.
FINAL ANALYSIS In this chapter we have clearly analysed that India aspires to be a great power, and this owes its origin to the greatness of the nation personified in ancient texts, as perceived by Indians. India’s ancient past had a great imprint on the Nehruvian period, which blended perfectly with modern aspirational values India developed during colonial times. India, under Nehru, displayed a suitable combination of assertion and non-violence by maintaining positive neutralism through non-alignment. The policy of non-alignment, rightly based on enlightened self-interest, aptly guided India during the turbulent Cold War period and also echoed in us that great power status can be achieved only by moral idealism and not by any form of territorial or military aggression. However, despite India advocating for non-alignment, India did recognise and diplomatically engage with a host of nations, ranging from Korea to Congo. The US certainly was not comfortable with NAM and perceived it as an international liability that undermined American influence. Thus, it was natural for Pakistan, after Partition, to align with the US under SEATO in 1954. During early 1950’s, India continued to support China on every platform as Indian support was based on civilizational amity between the two. However, after growing distrust due to Chinese aid to Naga and Mizo insurrections, it culminated in 1962 war. The post-1962 period saw the cementing of US–Pakistan relations and Sino–Pakistan axis, which ultimately compelled India to move beyond the orbit of reduced defense expenditure. The subsequent victories in 1965 and 1971 wars with Pakistan helped India come out of the eclipse of humiliation imposed by 1962 defeat at the hands of the Chinese. The period of Indira and Rajiv Gandhi doctrines saw use of military force to up the deterrence in the region. The end of the Cold War saw India use its economic significance and power to assert influence. The adoption of a liberal economy gave India the needed space to repair the Indo–US relationship and since the 1990’s, India has steadily increased its regional and international standing in the world to achieve the goal of being a great power.
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3 CHAPTER
Determinants and the Formation of Indian Foreign Policy
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Role of MEA in foreign policy Role of state governments in foreign policy Role of Defence Ministry in foreign policy Role of DRDO in foreign policy Role of Parliament in foreign policy Role of Union Executive in foreign policy Role of private sector in foreign policy Role of media in foreign policy Role of PMO in foreign policy This chapter introduces the reader to various institutions responsible for foreign policy formation and execution in India. In 1947, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) was created. Initially, it was placed under the Prime Minister of India. The Indian MEA announced that friendly relations were to be established with all nations, with special attention on decolonisation. India envisaged the need to have one world. In 1947, the MEA developed two circles, one for neighbours and the other for the rest of the world. This might be interpreted as a British legacy since they had used the policy of the ring fence, and had also established buffer states and protectorates. The MEA, when created in 1947, had the infrastructure to engage with many states at their disposal.
Case Study Britain–Afghanistan and Independent India When the British had control over India, they had decided to engage with Afghanistan. The British engagement with Afghanistan was undertaken to keep the Russians, under the Tsar, at bay. Due to British presence in Afghanistan, the situation was somewhat eased for India after 1947. In 1949, an Afghan Trade Delegation visited Delhi and concluded a Treaty of Friendship. India subsequently opened up consulates in Afghanistan to streamline the gulf operations as Britain had employed a lot of Indians to work in the oil fields in the Gulf. Thus, the Indian Government used its British links to engage with West Asia. The World Wars also played an important role in our immediate worldview. Due to the World Wars, the British had taken a lot of Indians to work overseas. This not only https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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helped India to internationalise its presence in the post-independence period but also gave us insight on how to protect our frontiers. The British had taken a lot of people of Indian origin to work in other colonies. They came to constitute the Indian diaspora. The immediate task for MEA now was to provide citizenship to these migrants. Subsequently, the MEA, in later years, began to get professional diplomats recruited by Union Public Service Commission (UPSC). State governments play an important role in the foreign policy decisions in India at times, but during the electoral discourse, foreign policy is not debated as domestic politics in India has not evolved yet to use the policies of India at the international level in political campaigning. Nuclear weapon alliance, foreign diplomatic strategies and so forth are not used as campaign issues in India. Regional parties, however, try to generate regional sensation by occasionally raising up foreign policy issues. For example, DMK and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu use Tamil grievances in Sri Lanka as a plank to galvanise votes and, at times, have put tremendous pressures on the Central government to tow the regional line.
The Foreign Ministry, though it plays a very important role in the foreign policy decisions of India, is highly under-staffed. The diplomatic strength of India is very limited in comparison to Japan, the US or Germany. The officials are often overburdened. A joint secretary in MEA has a large portfolio and resultantly is unable to effectively process information. The Defence ministry has a huge pool of officials from the three forces but lacks officials with in-depth knowledge on modern complex acquisition and defence policies. The defence acquisitions fall upon career bureaucrats with little or no specialisation. There is a general tendency to delay decisions and this, overall, contributes in reduction in the influence of the military in foreign policy decisions. Since our domestic acquisition is slow from foreign nations, at the defence level, to meet the shortage, we resort to self-sufficiency which is pledged by the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO). The problem repeatedly observed with DRDO is of over-promise and under-delivery. There is a huge soldier–scientist disconnect that aggravates concerns of domestic defence production. The Home Ministry provides support through the Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) at the Chinese border and Border Security Force (BSF) at Pakistan and Bangladesh border and is involved in border conflicts with the nations. In India, foreign policy and defence of the nation are domains of the Union executive that finds mention in List 1 of the seventh schedule of the Constitution. As foreign policy is the domain of the executive, there is no need of Parliamentary approval to declare treaties unlike in the US, where both houses of US Congress need to approve bills, thereby imposing limits on Federal authority. In the US, two instances are worth noting where Congress refused ratification. The first was when Woodrow Wilson agreed that the US would be a part of League of Nations which the congress rejected and same was the case in 1999, when Clinton signed Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) while the Congress rejected it again. In India, if a treaty is very significant and if some groups oppose it and if https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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they want to ascertain the confidence of the government’s own numbers, then the Parliament could vote. This happened, for instance, in case of the Indo-US nuclear deal when a vote of confidence was sought. However, in India, the Executive does not have unbridled control as the Parliament, through the Estimates Committee, the Public Accounts Committee, and various other notions and resolutions can scrutinise the government’s actions and seek explanations. For instance, in the first annual financial statement in the Parliament, some members had discussed the increase in postal rates in India and Pakistan.
Case Study Instances of Scrutiny and Checking When India joined the Commonwealth, it was a free association of nations. Many people in India did not appreciate India joining the British Commonwealth. A heated debate took place in the Parliament and members proposed many changes. The government finally accepted the use of appropriate language to explain the reasons of joining the Commonwealth to all members lucidly. This clearly proved that even during the prime ministerial rule of Jawaharlal Nehru, he was highly checked by the forces of the Indian Parliament. Again in November, 2013, Manmohan Singh had taken the decision to be a part of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) Summit in Colombo at a time that coincided with the fourth Eelam War. The DMK and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu Legislative Council passed a resolution urging the Indian Government to enforce economic sanctions and let UN investigate civilian genocide in Sri Lanka. The sentiment touched a raw nerve and Manmohan Singh decided not to attend CHOGM and send the Foreign Minister instead. From 1950 to 1980, India had a closed economy and the private sector had little scope in having any role in foreign relations. However, by the end of the Cold War, the private sector had become a key player. In fact, in many bilateral relations, we find that trade diplomacy is purely dominated by the private sector. As we shall see in subsequent chapters on Africa and Latin America, Indian commercial diplomacy is primarily private sector dominated. The media plays an important role in moulding foreign policy and taking it to the people. Media can draw attention on foreign policy issues. There have been cases where the media was responsible for creating public support for the government but at times, the media is also found to indulge in manufacturing consent. The media was highly controlled in India during Cold War and was only somewhat liberated in the post-Cold War period. In 1999, during the Kargil War, the media actually reported from the warzone and helped in creating an emotional wave of sympathy for soldiers giving rise to a feeling of nationalism. The government also used the conflict situation appropriately to empower the media. Indian media helped shape perceptions but the lack of correspondence from abroad and reliance on foreign footage made the job difficult for them at times. The extent of how much media can mould perception is based on the government’s agenda and in India, the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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media is yet to evolve fully to influence the electorate as, for instance, in the US. For example, the role of media in India can be judged by the fact that when in 2004-2005, India and the US undertook aggressive rapprochement, the left parties were highly critical of growing Indo-US proximity but the media stood by the government in their support to the increasing bonhomie between India and US. A lot of foreign policy bureaucrats do play a role in PMO as also wherever they go on deputation. At times, the PMO also creates special envoys to negotiate on issue of paramount importance, such as climate change and nuclear power. Considering the fact that India’s economic profile is growing, coordination at times does become an issue.
Case Study Indian Constituency Development Abroad India, in the recent times, has decided to develop constituencies abroad as a part of its soft policy approach. It invites students to come to India on visa for study. At times, if a student in research intends to extend his or her stay in India, then they need to approach Foreigners Regional Registration offices to renew the visa. This body is in the Home Ministry. Thus, at times, due to the lack of coordination between the MEA and the MHA, the visas get delayed. For instance, at one point of time, there was even a situation when Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon wrote to then Home Secretary V K Duggal about the need is to create a faster regime due to lack of efficiency. India was unable to develop constituencies like China because of its lack of efficiency and coordination.
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4 CHAPTER
Overview of Indian Foreign Policy from Nehru till the Present
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Foreign policy of Nehruvian era Foreign policy of Indira Gandhi Foreign policy of Rajiv Gandhi Foreign policy of P V Narshimha Rao Foreign policy of I K Gujaral Foreign policy of Atal Bihari Vajpayee Foreign policy of Manmohan Singh Foreign policy of Narendra Modi Analysis of major shifts in foreign policy from Cold War to the post-Cold War period Final analysis
INTRODUCTION This chapter traces the foreign policy of Indian Prime Ministers from Nehru till the present times. As the analysis progresses, the focus would be on understanding the dramatic transitions witnessed by Indian foreign policy. Then the chapter will proceed to scrutinise the overall evolution of Indian foreign policy of the last seven decades. There will be special emphasis upon theorising the transition of foreign policy of India at the end of the Cold War and how India adjusted its relationship with the West. The chapter then further examines the foreign policy of the new government in India since 2014 and discusses the doctrines of the Modi era.
FOREIGN POLICY OF THE NEHRUVIAN ERA History and geographical coordinates are two primary factors that influence the foreign policy of a country. The most important factor influencing the operational part of foreign policy is the geopolitics that governs the nation and its neighbouring region. After India became independent in 1947, it initiated the process of developing its foreign policy. The Indian Foreign Policy (hereafter referred to as IFP) that came to be developed was under the leadership of Nehru. Nehru nurtured and shaped the IFP but did not invent the IFP. The IFP has its roots in India’s past and its traditions. When India became independent, it was economically and militarily underdeveloped. It was imperative, at that moment, to evolve the right set of priorities. India had to make a choice of either developing the state https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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militarily or economically. Nehru realised that states like Pakistan and Thailand focused on developing their military establishments at the cost of developing their nations economically; these states thereby had unstable politics. In this context, Nehru understood that the foundation of social coherence lies in economic strength. The Nehruvian perspective was that economic strength is the guarantee of security of a state and a strong economic base could also later enable India to develop a robust military. Nehru, therefore, shifted India’s focus on industrial development. An understanding of the weaknesses of a nascent nation at the time of independence and the potential of India as a great power were the two core approaches that dominated the IFP in that period. Some scholars assert that Nehruvian policy lacked a sense of realism. This may not be entirely true because events during his tenure suggest that he steered the country through the prism of the Cold War without sacrificing the quest for India’s strategic autonomy. During the Cold War, when the USA and the USSR were trying to bring other states into their ideological orbit, Nehru, in order to shield India from predatory international powers, made a decision to join the Commonwealth as a security guarantee. Joining the Commonwealth in no way affected India’s quest for strategic autonomy in the international affairs. It would be right to assert that Nehru was against ideologisation, but favoured the logic of power of ideas in foreign policy even while rejecting any sort of fundamentalism in the foreign policy discourse. In fact, Nehru never favoured moralism in the application of foreign policy; rather, he stated that it was the bipolar world that had resorted to preaching one or the other kind of ideology. Nehru clarified that the art of conducting foreign policy is about asserting the national interests of India. Nehru stated that while a country is focussed on its own self-interests, it may enter into situations leading to clash of interests with other states. In such scenarios, Nehru favoured focussing on enlightened self-interest as a tool to harmonise the differentiated interests of the states. Though the origin of IFP is traced to ancient texts and leaders, its immediate roots lay in the Indian struggle for independence against the British. It was during the Indian National Movement (INM) that India developed certain principle elements to its foreign policy that were used by India throughout the Cold War. It was during the INM that India declared its commitment to fight imperialism and colonialism and support the unity of all nations struggling to fight imperialism and colonialism. The period after the World War-II saw the decline of imperialism but also led to the economic and military dominance of the USA. This led to an arms race between the USA and the USSR which ultimately became nuclear in nature during the Cold War. It was against such a backdrop, with an arms race and an ideological war waging across the world, that India had to evolve its foreign policy. India, being a non-communist country, was not welcomed in the Soviet bloc. India on its part did not entertain any intentions of joining the Communist bloc either. Joining the US bloc was out of the question as India perceived USA as a mouth piece for capitalism which it believed to be a form of neo imperialism. During the Cold War, India always felt that the USA is trying to step into the shoes of the erstwhile imperialist powers. Joining the US bloc would have therefore meant for India to go against the entire tradition of its national movement. The Nehruvian idea was very clear. Joining any bloc would lead to lessening of the sovereign space for decision making that India fought for during the INM. For Nehru, the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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priority was to promote global peace and support anti-colonial struggles while adopting independence in deciding domestic, foreign, economic and military policy. For India, its immediate foreign policy priority was not the conflict in Europe but India’s immediate neighbourhood. For that matter, Nehru himself asserted that India’s neighbouring countries were the first on his mind and this was followed by other Asian states and Africa. For Nehru, the main problem during the Cold War was not Communism or its containment but the development of India and to do so, it had to avoid falling in line either with the Soviet camp or the Washington led ‘Freedom’ camp that was gaining prominence in Asia. At the heart of our foreign policy was an urge to advance our national interests and ensure our space for strategic autonomy. For India, its priority was to have an independent foreign policy. An independent foreign policy involved interactions with all players of the system while retaining the ability to make one’s own decisions regarding one’s own issues. It is from here that the spirit of non-alignment was born. Non-aligned movement (NAM) eventually emerged as India’s core foreign policy tool for the next few decades.
In fact, it is not wrong to assert that non-alignment emerged as the sister policy of the non-violent Satyagraha movement pioneered by Gandhi. As more and more independent nations were sucked up into the ideological orbit of the two superpowers in Asia and Africa, India saw this as a rise of neo-colonialism. For Nehru, the falling of the shadow of Cold War in Asia and Africa was colonialism in new clothes. Thus, India and its foreign policy took up the lead to support movements against colonialism and imperialism (perceived as neo-colonialism) to maintain world peace. These two were deeply enmeshed in the IFP concept of non-alignment which was based on the core principle of rationality.
The basis of non-alignment was the ancient Indian philosophy of looking at reality from different prisms and recognising that reality is not merely black and white and that it could have many shades of grey. For the US, during the Cold War, the world was a completely polarised affair, with a clear demarcation of black and white and no other shade in between. Thus, the US found it very difficult to reconcile with the Indian concept of NAM all throughout the cold war.
Case Study International Politics and the Kashmir Question https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Pakistan, after independence, sent its armed forces personnel disguised as tribesmen to invade the Kashmir valley. This brought India and Pakistan into conflict with each other. To complain about the Pakistani aggression, India, on advice of the British, took the matter to the UN Security Council. The western powers led by the USA were determined on getting an unfavourable resolution passed at the UNSC against India. They wanted to favour Pakistan for allowing its territory to be used by the West to contain the Soviets. The USA, for that matter, had urged Turkey and Pakistan to sign a mutual defence treaty which was followed by the creation of the Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) in 1954 and Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO) in 1955. Pakistan emerged as a member of both SEATO and CENTO, thereby bringing Cold War politics right to India’s doorsteps. In order to strengthen the case of Pakistan, the West started to support Pakistan outright at the Security Council. This compelled India to deter Western action by tilting towards Soviets and compelling the Soviets to use their veto power in the Council. In fact, the Kashmir issue and the Soviets veto brought India and the USSR closer. This proximity deepened in 1954 when Nikita Khrushchev on a visit to India visited Kashmir and asserted it to be an integral part of India. It is not wrong to conclude that the Kashmir issue led to qualitative improvements in Indo–Soviet relations. India, throughout the initial years, kept its foreign policy focus on providing support to nations to fight imperialism and preserve peace post-independence. Preservation of peace became an integral part of our own foreign policy because only with peace in the world was consistent economic development possible. The preservation of peace found its presence even in the Belgrade Conference of Non-aligned states held in 1961 from where a delegation was dispatched to both USA and USSR to halt nuclear testing. All these initiatives of Nehru, despite the economic and military backwardness of India, brought India to the centre of the world stage. Many times, India’s offices were used to sort out international differences. In early 1950’s, Northern Korea invaded South Korea. North Korea stated that the invasion was launched as an attempt to unify Korea. The US forces joined the war to assist South Korea. The US forces, led by General MacArthur, drove the forces of North back and the USA forcibly unified Korea, stretching the unified territory till the Chinese and North Korean frontier. The Chinese felt that the US could attack their territory and they immediately responded by dispatching their volunteer forces to check USA. The unfolding Korean crises led to the establishment of a Korean Commission at the UN under the chairmanship of India to resolve the issues. This issue of the Korean crisis proves how the good offices of India were used in unravelling the knots between USA and China. China’s history had been dominated by feudalism and a lot has depended on the ability of the Emperor to provide staple food (rice) to the people. From 1945 to 1947, a nationalist uprising in China led to the coming of a new government. The erstwhile sick man of Asia had finally turned around with a powerful central government that ended all disruption affecting China since the last century. India also understood clearly, like the rest of the world, that the Chinese revolution indeed entailed a fundamental transformation of the Chinese society where the new nationalist upsurge led to the rise of a communist state. In this rise of a new China, India now had to adopt its policy. The new China became very assertive and even dispatched a military force to Tibet compelling Sardar Vallabhbhai https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Patel to draw the Indian government’s immediate attention to the issue. Patel perceived Chinese aggression in Tibet and India’s North-Eastern borders as fertile grounds that could be used by Indian communists to access ideas and commands from across. Though Patel was right in ringing the alarm bell, many believe that his focus was less on Chinese nationalism and more on the emergence of Chinese communism. If we draw an analogy here, it may not be wrong to argue that what USA did with respect to confusing nationalism in Vietnam with Communism in Vietnam (leading to USA–Vietnam war subsequently), is what Patel did with respect to China. In 1959, while speaking in the Lok Sabha, Nehru echoed the concerns of Patel. Nehru asserted that a study of Chinese history showed that China tended to territorially expand when it had a strong central government and such expansionist aspiration was definitely a cause of concern for India as its borders would be threatened. However, Nehru argued that the focus of India was to maintain friendly relations with China and overlook such issues at the larger cost of friendship. India could not undertake any form of military adventurism in Tibet as it lacked the military strength and because the Indian army was busy on the Pakistani front post the first Indo–Pakistan war of 1947–48. Also, any intervention in Tibet by India would not make sense as Tibetan independence was not recognised internationally Nehru did, however, made a mistake in making an uninformed judgment. He failed to understand that in the ancient imperial era, the empire pulsated outwards and expanded, and Chinese expansion happened only at the peripheries as China did not favour contact with the ‘barbarian’ world outside. On the other hand, after the World War– II, a revolutionary China, propelled by a heady mix of intense Nationalism and Marxism, pulsated outwards to recover lost territories of the past. For Nehru, clash with China was inevitable; but his priority was to postpone it and pursue peace. For him, peace with China was the key focus area of India’s neighbourhood policy. He even attempted to normalise the Tibet issue and concluded the Panchsheel agreement whereby India accepted Tibet as a part of China. Though USA was very critical of Panchsheel, in the same way as it was critical of NAM, ironically, it later adopted the same five principles of Panchsheel to undertake rapprochement with China under the Nixon administration. This was known as the famous Shanghai Declaration. In 1959, after the Tibetan revolt was crushed by China, Dalai Lama took refuge in India. Though Nehru favoured that China be recognised as a responsible international power, USA always perceived the revolutionary China as a hostile state and thereby ended up undercutting Nehruvian policies on China. Soon, a border issue began to brew between India and China. China began to circulate maps where it showed territories regarded by India as their territory as Chinese territory. India took up the issue with China to which the Chinese responded by suggesting that these maps used by China (with claim over Indian territories) were maps belonging to KMT regime and due to internal domestic issues and civil war, the new revolutionary Chinese government had not had the time to look into the maps. However, a little later the Chinese began to make official claims of Indian territories and declared that such claims were correct. At this juncture, Nehru made a move of making Indian position on the border public. Nehru’s perception was that a confrontation with China was useless and publicising the issue would give Chinese the opportunity to undertake objections and reactions. This, however, might have been a strategic error. Instead of Nehru publicising the Indian position (to which Chinese did not react), it would https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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have been better had India made an offer of a formal recognition of Tibet as a Chinese region in return for a written agreement from China on border alignment, with concessions on India’s border positions. Had the Chinese objected to a written agreement on the border alignment, such an issue raised with China by India would have enhanced Indian sincerity about the issue. The situation was especially sensitive since after the Dalai Lama sought refuge in India in 1959, China began to feel that the 1959 Tibetan revolt could have had encouragement from the Indian side. This made China more hostile to India and it saw its manifestations on the border dispute. Perceiving no Chinese retreat from the disputed area, coupled with discovery of Chinese roads through the Aksai Chin region; India initiated a forward policy ultimately compelling the Chinese to react in October 1962. The Chinese reaction in the form of a strike from across the border was again miscalculated by India as it thought that the Chinese could possibly launch a full-scale offensive in the Assam hills and occupy large tracts of North-East India. This led India to hastily seek USA’s support where a letter from Nehru to John F. Kennedy was sent to solicit military assistance to mitigate the Chinese threat. The Chinese, before USA could even respond, retreated back to the old positions and observed status quo. The intention of the Chinese was not to launch an outright offensive with India but, to teach India a lesson and assert Chinese superiority. Ultimately, China did not gain anything from the hostilities, as it later resorted to what Nehru had advocated. It initiated a replica of Nehruvian NAM in the name of Chinese independent foreign policy. The Chinese too later realised the need to make peace with honour, which itself was at the core of the Nehruvian ideology. Even till date, in dealing with China, no alternative policy to peace with honour has been encouraged and it continues to be at the heart of Indian diplomacy with China.
FOREIGN POLICY OF INDIRA GANDHI After the death of Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri succeeded him as the next Prime Minister. It is during the regime of Shastri that India and Pakistan fought an inconclusive war in 1965. Though the war of 1965 remained inconclusive, it boosted the confidence and morale of the Indian army, especially after the crushing defeat of India in the Sino–Indian conflict of 1962. It was also important, as for the first time after the 1962 war, the USSR assisted India and Pakistan to launch an initiative to bring peace. The USSR invited Shastri and Ayub Khan to Tashkent where both sides agreed to resolve future bilateral disputes peacefully and concluded the Tashkent agreement. However, after the conclusion of the Tashkent Agreement on 10 January, 1966, Shastri passed away, to be then succeeded by India Gandhi on 24 January, 1966. th
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When Indira Gandhi took over as the Prime Minister, the domestic and security environment of India was not too benign. Domestically, India faced famine and serious food shortages. The food imports were at an all-time high and this had put a severe burden on the country’s foreign exchange as well. At the security level, India had fought expensive wars with Pakistan and China and both were looming as new security threats, threatening India’s sovereignty. Indira Gandhi embarked on her foreign policy mission by paying a visit to Egypt and Yugoslavia to reassert their strong relationship, using NAM as a tool. She then visited USA with a hope of evolving a new dimension in the bilateral relationship based on democratic values. Her visit to the USA, however, failed to https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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fraternise an abrasive bilateral relationship. The USA spent its powers of persuasion in muting Indian criticism of USA–Vietnam war, linking Indian response to the USA– Vietnam conflict to future food shipments, which led Indira Gandhi to adopt a domestic strategy to revive agriculture. Indira Gandhi, after her USA visit, was firm that India would not remain dependent upon foreign states for food security and would achieve selfsufficiency in food production within the next five years. It was during the 1970 Lusaka NAM summit where scholars were able to get an insight into the essential tenets of foreign policy as was being adopted by Indira Gandhi. For the first time, she emphasised that India wished to be friends with all nations but on the basis of equality. She asserted that no state can look to India as an inferior state and India would conduct its diplomacy with all states (read the USA and the USSR) on equal footing. In fact, Indira Gandhi boldly criticised the US at various NAM meetings for their aggression in Vietnam while the Indian agriculture saw a revival. However, it wasn’t long before India faced another crisis in the form of East Pakistan’s bid for secession from the unity of Pakistan. When the British left India and Pakistan, they had divided Pakistan into West and East Pakistan. East Pakistan or East Bengal was a Muslim majority area, with the population consisting of mostly Bengali Muslims. East Pakistan had always received a step-brotherly treatment from West Pakistan. West Pakistan even imposed Urdu over their native Bengali Language and looted East Pakistani resources without focussing on any substantial economic development of the region. This neglect paved way for the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, who, under the umbrella of Awami League, championed the cause of Bengali nationalism. In December 1970, elections took place in both East and West Pakistan and as per the result, Sheikh Mujibur Rehaman of the Awami League won the elections in East Pakistan while Zulfikar Ali Bhuto’s Pakistan People’s Party won in West Pakistan. Bhutto, trying to mitigate his party’s loss in East Pakistan, began to initiate a new ‘democratic’ principle and began to assert that as per this principle, both West and East being at par with each other, the West has an equal right to form the government in the East. West Pakistan, thereafter, imposed martial law in East Pakistan, leading to arrest of Mujibur Rehaman and a massive crackdown in the region. Due to the arrest of Rehman, an internal crisis began in East Pakistan and a lot of East Pakistanis began to enter into India for safety. India began to build international pressure on West Pakistan to halt suppression and revert back to the democratic processes. The USA remained unmoved even as the international media highlighting the atrocities in the East. As USA refused to budge, India took up the opportunity to conclude a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with the USSR in August 1971 where the Soviets agreed to an immediate consultation with each other if either side met with any form of aggression. The treaty served the purpose of warning Washington not to pursue any military design against India. 1
In December 1971, Pakistan resorted to a pre-emptive strike on Indian Air Force airplanes. The Indian side perceived this as an attack on Indian sovereignty and decided to retaliate. War broke out yet again and within three days, Indian forces reached Dacca and recognised Bangladesh as a new state, compelling Pakistani troops to finally surrender. The USA even sent a nuclear armed USS Enterprise Aircraft Carrier into the Bay of Bengal but the Indo–Soviet treaty constrained it further. Sheikh Mujibur Rehaman was handed over power finally while India held 92,000 prisoners of war. This was followed by https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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the Simla Summit of June 1972, where Pakistani PM Bhutto urged for release of not only the prisoners of war but also the territory captured by India belonging to West Pakistan. On 1 July 1972, the Simla Agreement was signed urging peaceful resolution of Kashmir issue through dialogue and negotiations. The creation of Bangladesh came as a big blow to USA, with US president Nixon, along with Henry Kissinger, having to reconcile to the new ground realities of South Asia. st
The USA faced another issue in 1974 when India tested a nuclear explosion. It understood that India cannot be taken lightly and that it is a major regional power. Indira Gandhi, however, chose to keep the nuclear testing to level of peaceful use only and did not go a step further to declare India a nuclear weapon state. India clearly understood that the root cause of the regional imbalance plaguing South Asia was created by the USA’s supplying of arms to Pakistan, which wanted to attain parity with India. The USA on the other hand, after the 1974 nuclear test by India, again announced an arms package designed for Pakistan. It asserted that 1974 nuclear test has disturbed the balance and the new power structure favours India, compelling USA to redress and re-maintain the balance. However, due to the severe economic costs of the 1971 war, India again slipped into crisis and the subsequent domestic developments like emergency contributed to the fall of Indira Gandhi and the rise of Morarji Desai. Even during the Desai regime, there was no change in the major practices of the IFP. However due to internal disturbances, the government fell and was then replaced in 1980 with an Indira Gandhi government yet again. Indira Gandhi, upon taking power in 1980, was confronted with the question of Afghanistan. In 1979, on the invitation of Kabul, the Soviets had invaded Afghanistan. The USA realised the problem and further began to pump aid and arms to Pakistan. The USA began to use Pakistan as a frontline state to support and arm elements to weaken Soviet presence in Afghanistan. Such elements created by the USA and nurtured by Pakistan emerged in the form of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. This period saw the birth of the Al-Qaeda to target the Communist front in Afghanistan. India maintained neutrality. It neither condemned the Soviet invasion nor supported it. The USA asserted that non-condemnation by India is a sign of Indian support to the Soviet policy. But India stood upright and based its policy on the merit of the situation. Indira Gandhi sustained a prolonged dialogue with the US and maintained the economic dimension of their bilateral diplomacy. She did the same with respect to China and followed the same policy to break the ice with India’s mighty neighbour. In both cases, she restored the same hallmark of the IFP, that is, to follow the India’s basic interests without sacrificing India’s strategic autonomy. She beautifully enmeshed flexibility with national interests and continued her foreign policy on realistic terms. Her most important contribution was to make India into a brand equal to the great powers.
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FOREIGN POLICY OF RAJIV GANDHI Foreign policy under Rajiv Gandhi had a fine blend of idealism and realism. His approach in foreign policy was to follow the tradition of non-alignment but he simultaneously attempted giving it a contemporary touch. In his visit to the USA in 1985, he reaffirmed the common values that India and USA stood for while also highlighting the dangers of the possibility of a nuclearised Pakistan. A considerable amount of diplomatic efforts unfolded between India and USA in political and economic aspects. Social and cultural diplomacy found a new place in the evolving relationship. The major focus of Rajiv Gandhi was on India’s neighbourhood where considerable diplomatic and political capital was invested. During his times, India and Pakistan signed an agreement not to attack each other’s nuclear facilities but the rapid acceleration of Pakistani nuclear capabilities became an immense concern for India. Though Rajiv Gandhi was a strong advocate of nuclear disarmament and in 1988 had even presented the Rajiv Gandhi action plan for nuclear disarmament, he had to also guarantee India’s security. Rajiv gave a nod to the Indian nuclear scientist fraternity and authorised them to manufacture nuclear weapons for India. This decision was taken to prevent any nuclear blackmailing from any side. Sri Lanka was another state that demanded Rajiv’s attention. The Sri Lankan army had taken siege of Jaffna region and the Tamilian Sri Lankans faced tremendous chaos and persecution. India decided to airdrop supplies of essentials for the people of Jaffna which was perceived by Sri Lanka as a violation of its sovereignty. To break the ice, in 1987, Rajiv and J. Jayawardene concluded India–Sri Lanka Accord. As per the accords, LTTE would surrender; there would be a unified Sri Lanka; Sri Lanka to undertake devolution in Tamil majority areas and Sri Lanka will allow its territory be used by foreign powers. As per the Accord, an Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) would supervise the surrender of LTTE to ensure peace. The accord and IPKF were perceived by many in Sri Lanka as a violation of their sovereignty. Jayawardene was succeeded by Premadasa who ordered immediate withdrawal of Indian troops from Sri Lanka. Rajiv Gandhi, in the meantime, was assassinated by LTTE cadre and this led to withdrawal of all Indian sympathy for LTTE. Rajiv Gandhi also took steps to speed up relations with China. During his 1989 visit to China, both sides agreed that the border issue should not hinder the improvement of bilateral ties in other dimensions. The idea of Deng Xioping was that the border issue should be separated from other issues and both sides should deepen ties in other https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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dimensions and later renegotiate the border issue in a more relaxed atmosphere. Rajiv Gandhi agreed to this logic. During his tenure, Rajiv Gandhi remained committed to the core values of non-alignment and supported anti-racialist struggles in Africa. He also used NAM as a tool to promote the economic interests of India. Thus, it is not wrong to conclude that Rajiv Gandhi, too, followed the policy of “enlightened self-interests”.
FOREIGN POLICY OF P V NARASIMHA RAO In the general elections of 1990, Rajiv Gandhi lost, paving way for the V P Singh government. At that moment, IFP had to face some serious challenges. These challenges are going to be elaborated in depth in the chapter ahead. Here, we attempt a brief glimpse of the situation. In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. This led to the beginning of the Gulf War–I. As Gulf War–I broke out in a region which was the economic lifeline for the west, USA jumped into the conflict to help Kuwait. USA could not allow Saddam Hussein to have a free run in this strategic region. For India, the Gulf War–I had severe consequences. India had perceived Iraq very differently. Iraq was not only one of the most secular states but also not a member of Organization of Islamic States. From the Indian point of view, Iraq was a crucial state because it had always been favourable towards India on the Kashmir question. In 1990, India and Iraq had even entered into an agreement where Iraq was to supply 2.5 million tons of oil to India in 1990–91. All this led to a delayed response from India on the Gulf war. India, however, supported the UN resolution against Iraq and urged Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait. By that time, the USA had launched a fully-fledged military invasion of Iraq to force it to withdraw from Kuwait. What also worked in favour of the USA was the situation in Russia. In 1989, the Soviet Union had already disintegrated. The Communist regimes in Eastern Europe had collapsed. This ended the sole adversary of USA in the world. The US displayed tremendous military power in Iraq during Gulf War. The situation ended the bipolar world order established after the World War–II and eventually led to the origin of a new, unipolar world order. The USA now emerged as the sole superpower. Its military intervention against Iraq could not be challenged by any player in the international system. After a while, in India, P V Narasimha Rao emerged as a new PM. Rao inherited a crumbling domestic economy and a rapidly changing international situation. At the domestic level, Rao initiated a dialogue to intensify relations with the USA and China. However, at that time, USA wanted a roll back of the Indian nuclear programme. The Clinton administration, aiming for parity between India and Pakistan, began the hyphenation of the two states. In America, Senator Larry Presseler had passed an amendment to some laws which stated that any state engaging in a nuclear weapons programme would not receive any aid and if any aid was being given to such a nation, it shall be suspended automatically. The Clinton administration, in their tilt towards Pakistan, lobbied with the Congress aggressively for abolishing the Pressler amendment which, according to the USA administration, was a barrier to equip Pakistan with military aid. Aid to Pakistan was suspended during the administration of George Bush Senior. It is ironical that, to counter the USSR’s influence in Afghanistan, not only did USA aid Pakistan, but also conveniently turned a blind eye to the Pakistani nuclear programme. Things, however, changed after Geneva Accords 1989 and subsequent Soviet https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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disintegration. The priorities of Clinton administration were the hyphenation of India and Pakistan and to make both parties sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). In the period immediately after the Cold War, though USA had begun to favour Pakistan and wanted to revive its alliance with the country, it also realised that it could not ignore India as India was a new emerging market. On the other hand, by 1990, following the complete disintegration of Soviet Union, the erstwhile USSR was now succeeded by Russia, which meant that India had now lost the patronage of the erstwhile USSR. What was worrisome for India was the future supply of defence products. During the Cold War, Russia was one of the major defence suppliers to India. Now after the end of Cold War, India had to renegotiate all contracts and at certain places even sign new contracts. However, the greater dilemma was with whom were these new contracts to be negotiated. There was a vacuum and not much clarity. At this juncture, many in Russia felt the need to end the special favour for India. Under intense USA pressure, Russia even refused to provide India with cryogenic technology for its space programme, citing that the technology could be used by India for military purposes. However, things normalised when Boris Yeltsin visited India in 1993. During his visit, the 1971 India–Russia Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation was revised with 14 additional clauses and was signed to mark a new era in bilateral relationship post-Cold War. At the same time Rao also developed new contacts with the five Central Asian Republics that emerged after the breakup of USSR. Today, Central Asia continues to be the area of the New Great Game where search for oil continues even at present. India is actively engaged in the region now, officially as a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). During the time, when Rao was reaching out to USA, China Russia and Central Asia, India’s relationship with Pakistan remained tensed. In 1992, the Babri Masjid demolition by Swayam Sewaks and the subsequent 1993 Mumbai blasts deteriorated the relationship and could not be normalised as Pakistan initiated verbal threats about using a nuclear bomb in case of a future conflict with India. By this time, it was an open secret that China had helped Pakistan acquire its nuclear capabilities. Despite all these developments, Rao tried to put up a strong face but during this tenure, any improvements in the relationship with Pakistan could not materialise.
FOREIGN POLICY OF I K GUJRAL In 1997, Gujral became the PM and evolved a fresh approach vis-à-vis the foreign policy which is now known as the Gujral doctrine. The basic foreign policy idea of Gujral was that India is a dominant power in the South Asian region and by this virtue when it deals diplomatically with states around itself, it should not look for arithmetical reciprocity. The core of the idea was to give more than what you may take from a foreign state. In a simpler language, the Gujral Doctrine meant that if a neighbour moved an inch, India should move a yard. This policy would enable India, according to him, to pursue a new quality of relationship with its neighbours, leading to sober and constructive responses from the neighbourhood. Gujral took his first lead with Bangladesh. Bangladesh and India relations were deeply frozen since the assassination of Mujibur Rehman. Gujral took into confidence Jyoti Basu, the then Chief Minister of West Bengal, and began to initiate a dialogue with https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Hasina Wajed of Bangladesh on settling the issue related to water utilisation of Ganga River. A thirty-year treaty on Ganga River water sharing was hammered out. This brought about a new air of freshness in the relationship. After the death of Rajiv Gandhi, India had stayed away from the domestic political concerns of Sri Lanka and the relations had slipped to an all-time low. But Gujral also initiated talks with the Chandrika Kumaratunga government in Sri Lanka. With respect to Pakistan, Gujral asserted to call off all verbal warfare tactics which were on in full swing due to the issues arising out of the nuclearisation of Pakistan. He even instructed RAW to dismantle all human assets it had established in Pakistan for covert operations as he perceived them as tools that would hinder constructive engagement with Pakistan. Gujral revived the dialogue process with Nawaz Sharif at the foreign secretary level. India wanted a dialogue on the political, economic, cultural and social fronts while Pakistan’s sole agenda was Kashmir. A dialogue was initiated but ties hobbled. During Gujral’s term, relations with China improved significantly. Chinese president Jiang Zemin visited India in 1996. Both sides signed an agreement to maintain peace and tranquillity at the border. Jiang visited Pakistan after his visit to India. He urged Pakistan to shelve those issues for some time that hinder bilateral cooperation and explore other diplomatic dimensions. The reference indirectly was to Kashmir. But hardly any change was seen in the Pakistani establishment. As argued previously, the core goal of Clinton administration was to make India sign the CTBT; India realised that CTBT along with NPT would create a discriminatory world order. During Gujral’s meeting with Clinton in 1997 on the side lines of the UN General Assembly meeting, Gujral explained the reasons for India’s refusal to sign the CTBT but also showcased the tremendous economic opportunities available for the USA with India. This dual approach worked well. Thus, during the tenure of Gujral, a push for economic diplomacy with the US became the core driver of the foreign policy.
FOREIGN POLICY OF ATAL BIHARI VAJPAYEE After the withdrawal of support by the Congress party, the Gujral government fell and was later replaced by the government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. From 11 to 13 May 1998, the government carried out nuclear tests. These tests were significant because one of the tests conducted in Pokhran was a thermonuclear test which indicated hydrogen bomb capability. India reached the sub-critical level in the tests and generated enough data in these experiments where further improvements could be carried out through computer simulation. Thus, after the operation Shakti I-V (the codename for the tests), India declared itself a Nuclear Weapon State. The most important achievement of Pokhran–II was the fact that India no longer required to undertake underground nuclear tests but could successfully use the data generated for computer simulations to improvise the yield of the bomb. India thus declared a voluntary moratorium on further nuclear testing. The tests done by India were immediately followed by nuclear tests by Pakistan. The Pakistani side also tested their atomic bombs. Vajpayee in a letter to Clinton asserted that India faced threats from China and Pakistan and that these were compelling reasons for India to undertake nuclear tests. The letter to Clinton was leaked to the New York Times and this aggravated tensions further between India and China. After the tests in India, there were international sanctions including sanctions by IMF and World Bank on further assistance to India. th
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However, Vajpayee decided to break the logjam with Pakistan and inaugurated a bus service between Delhi and Lahore. Vajpayee also visited Lahore and concluded the Lahore Declaration. Even as new enthusiasm between the two states to improve ties was being generated, the Pakistan army led by General Pervez Musharraf planned a new campaign in Kashmir. The manifestation of this planning was seen in May–June 1999 when the Pakistani side crossed the Line of Control and captured peaks on the Indian soil in Kargil. As India began to drive out the intruders, Nawaz Sharif asked for help from the Clinton administration in US in case India increased the offensive. Clinton, on the other hand, advised Sharif to order his army to pull back from the occupied territories and not breach the LOC. The conflict ended after Indian forces captured all the peaks occupied by Pakistan. In Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif was deposed and after a dubious referendum, Musharraf took over as the President of Pakistan. In 2001, another initiative towards dialogue took place between Vajpayee and Musharraf at Agra. The Agra Summit failed to achieve any breakthrough as Pakistan wanted Kashmir to be added as the core issue in the joint statement while India wanted the addition of cross border terrorism. Both sides rejected each other’s demand and therefore no joint statement came out after the Agra summit. The last year of Clinton administration saw a new approach towards India. The administration tilted in favour of India during the Kargil conflict. This was followed, in 2000, by a visit of Clinton to India and Clinton became the fourth USA president after Eisenhower, Nixon and Carter to visit the country. Clinton’s visit saw a push towards bilateral economic diplomacy as deals worth three billion dollars were signed, ranging from broadband connectivity to energy dimensions. The emerging economic opportunities for USA in India and a presence of a vibrant Indian diaspora in USA that played a pivotal role in US politics proved instrumental factors in creating a new bridge in the bilateral relationship. The Clinton administration was replaced by the Bush administration. The momentum of establishing a new relationship with India gained strength with the coming of Bush. The 9/11 attacks bolstered some major changes in the subcontinent. Immediately after the 9/11 attacks, India went ahead to put on record that it was willing to enter into military alliance with and work with USA on its war on terrorism. Bush, on the other hand, while appreciative of the Indian offer, turned to strengthen its military alliance and partnership with Pakistan. Pakistan not only emerged as a non-NATO ally but also a new USA–Pakistan axis was born. The US entered the subcontinent by invading Afghanistan in 2001. The rule of Taliban in Afghanistan ended. This was a big blow to Pakistan which favoured the Taliban in Afghanistan as it enabled it to maintain strategic depth against India. The cross-border terrorism from Pakistani side in 2001 increased and saw its first manifestation in the form of an attack on Kashmir assembly, culminating in the attack on Indian Parliament. India responded to this by launching a mega-military mobilisation exercise on Indo–Pakistan border under the name of operation Parakaram. The US faced a severe dilemma on how to respond to the situation as, on one hand, it was building up a grand coalition at the global level against terrorism. It could not afford to take the terrorist attacks on India lightly but could not be hard on Pakistan as it needed their support in the invasion of Afghanistan. The United States had to also ensure that India did not retaliate aggressively in response to the provocation perpetrated by Pakistan. The strategy of the Bush administration was now to prevent a South Asian war and https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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thereby increase its outreach to both India and Pakistan. As the American war on Afghanistan was ongoing, USA launched another invasion, that of Iraq, in 2003. The regime of Saddam Hussein was toppled and elections were organised. However, a sectarian conflict unfolded in Iraq and the region has remained unstable since then. The sectarian conflict let to the rise of ISIS as a new force in the region since 2014. The Iraq war brought about a shift in the Indian policy as well. We noted previously that India welcomed the US invasion of Afghanistan as the intention of the invasion was to dismantle the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. But the US invasion of Iraq did not go well with India. Though the Vajpayee government wanted to go ahead with its intention of providing military assistance to the USA for the Iraq war, public opinion in India was against any support to USA since people were largely unconvinced by the logic that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Due to the fierce resistance by the opposition parties, the Vajpayee regime dropped the idea. The US accepted India’s decision and still continued to strengthen ties with India. For the Bush administration, ties with India needed to be strengthened at the highest level.
The sanctions imposed by the US on India post Pokhran were lifted. A new initiative called the ‘Next step in Strategic Partnership’ was launched and cooperation on Civilian Nuclear and Missile defence dimensions began. As the relations with America progressed, in the 2004 SAARC summit, India and Pakistan not only resumed dialogue but issued a joint statement that laid down a framework to enhance bilateral commercial cooperation. As the peaceful dialogue with Pakistan and strategic dialogue with the US began, India held its next general elections and Vajpayee was replaced by Dr Manmohan Singh as the next Indian PM.
FOREIGN POLICY OF MANMOHAN SINGH The government of Manmohan Singh initiated a policy to intensify the peace process and dialogue with Pakistan. On 24 September 2004, Manmohan met Musharraf on the side lines of the UNGA Summit in New York. Singh outlined his vision of deepening the relationship with Pakistan to such an extent that the borders on the ground dividing the two nations would become irrelevant. Confidence Building Measures (CBM) were taken to normalise the situation in Kashmir as well. The launch of a composite dialogue between the two sides saw intensive discussions on bilateral issues ranging from Wullar Barrage to Siachen Glaciers demilitarisation to discussions on Tulbull Project. A bus service from Srinagar to Muzaffarabad was undertaken as an important CBM. Public opinion on both sides welcomed the diplomatic overtures. The policy of Manmohan was to evolve bilateral relations based upon a strong constituency of peace, and working towards the establishment of a favourable public opinion. But we should not forget that the trust deficit was not bridged and the cordial atmosphere of the relations were constantly affected due to Jihadi attacks in India. Despite attacks in Delhi (2005), Varanasi (2006) and Mumbai th
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(2006) however, dialogues continued, with Indian public opinion gradually tilting towards impatience. The relationship with China under Manmohan took a momentous step ahead. In 2005, the Indian foreign secretary, Shyam Saran, and Vice-Foreign Minister of China, Wu Dawei, met in Beijing. A new strategic dialogue unfolded between the two sides, on topics ranging from UN reforms to combating terrorism. In April 2005, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited India and both sides entered a new phase of strategic and cooperative partnership. Emphasis was laid upon improving economic and trade relations and cooperation in the defence dimension. Efforts were made to resolve the border dispute by the adoption of a new set of guidelines. Intense negotiations followed on bilateral issues, especially on the border disputes, but no solution was reached except that the differences were significantly narrowed. In 2006, both sides agreed to intensify military cooperation and defence became a new CBM between both sides. In 2006 itself, the two sides decided to boost bilateral trade and reopened the Nathu La Pass. The two sides also agreed to cooperate than compete with each other in each other’s search for energy supplies. The visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to India in 2006 led to a continued search for peace by the two sides. The India–Russia ties that had been stabilised by Boris Yeltsin were renewed afresh during the regime of Vladimir Putin. In 2004, Manmohan and Putin met at the India– Russia Summit. The two sides decided to resolve their long pending disputes related to defence. India was concerned about the supply of defence spares and their timely delivery and pricing. Russia was concerned about India’s IPR laws. During the 2004 summit meeting, India conveyed its assurance to Russia that it would respect intellectual property rights of all equipments supplied to India by Russia and ensure they were neither copied nor secretly stolen by any state. The two sides subsequently strengthened cooperation in defence and energy in the years ahead. The Next Steps in Strategic Partnership launched during the Vajpayee regime between India and USA ultimately culminated into the India–USA Civilian Nuclear Cooperation in 2005. The nuclear deal between India and USA not only opened up a new chapter in bilateral relationships but also signified that the USA had come to accept India as a major power of the future. One of the big challenges that Manmohan Singh faced during his tenure as the PM at the foreign policy level was related to Nepal. In 2005–2006, Nepal initiated a movement to rewrite its Constitution. The public opinion in Nepal was majorly against the monarchy. As Nepal took up the path of democracy, the Maoist elements in Nepal joined the democratic momentum. Though India did favour democracy in Nepal, it was worried about how or whether the Maoists would integrate well within the democratic process. Under intense international pressure, in 2006, the King restored democracy which was under suspension since the beginning of the Jan Andolan. India welcomed the move and kept a close watch on the unfolding Constitutional saga in Nepal. Manmohan Singh continued to deepen India’s relationship with the ASEAN states which had started with a sectoral dialogue partnership between India and ASEAN at the end of the Cold War. During Manmohan Singh’s regime as the PM, India and ASEAN concluded a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in goods (2010) and services (2012). Singh also https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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invested tremendous diplomatic capital to strengthen ties with Japan. The two sides, under the leadership of Manmohan Singh and Shinzo Abe, concluded an agreement to establish a single seamless whole envisaging free movement of navy, capital and people. Between India and Japan Manmohan also strengthened Indian ties with Africa. India launched multiple initiatives, ranging from Focus Africa Programme to Pan-Africa-e-Network Projects, to enhance people-to-people ties. The ties with West Asia saw resurgence based on the theme of oil diplomacy. It was during Manmohan Singh’s regime that the India and Saudi Arabia concluded a strategic partnership agreement. Cooperation with UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman continued. India and Qatar signed an agreement on LNG and Qatar decided to supply India LNG for energy security. The foreign policy of Manmohan Singh saw India emerge as one of the lead players in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. His ten year tenure as a Prime Minister gave Manmohan Singh an opportunity to touch all dimensions of international relationships, ranging from the Great Powers, Middle Powers to the immediate Neighbours.
FOREIGN POLICY OF NARENDRA MODI The year 2014 saw Modi coming to power as the Prime Minister of India. His very first foreign policy initiative won the hearts of many globally. Modi invited the heads of South Asia (SAARC leaders) during his oath taking ceremony in New Delhi in 2014. This gesture reflected of what awaited ahead in the high-powered diplomatic ventures he was about to undertake. The earliest signs of Modi’s diplomacy date back to his tenure as the Chief Minister (CM) of Gujarat. During his decade-long stint as the CM, he travelled to various countries to get investment for his state. During his foreign visits, he developed a style of personal diplomacy where he emphasised building of strong personal relationships with leaders of the states he visited. This style of personal diplomacy is now recognised as the hallmark of Modi’s way of engaging with the world. Modi’s diplomatic skills were further strengthened when Vajpayee, as the PM, deputed Modi to travel abroad for party work where he always displayed avid interest in learning how foreign states solved problems related to infrastructure, roads and rivers etc. and applying that learning to Indian situations. This ability of learning from foreign states to replicate the same in India is visible in his style of India First diplomacy. Modi’s background in RSS has also inculcated in him a sense of a wider engagement with people of all walks of life for suggestions. In fact, during his RSS days in 1970’s and 1980’s, Modi effectively worked upon the RSS pillar, Samvad. Samvad also eventually emerged as a key pillar of his foreign policy. He has effectively developed contacts with followers at all levels. When he travels abroad, he does not restrict his engagement with merely the heads of states but widens his reach to include private sector firms to monks to students to workers in factories. His idea of foreign policy or diplomacy is that it should not just be perceived as the art of government-to-government interaction but more as a leader-to-people interaction. Diplomacy involving leader-to-people interactions is called retail diplomacy. In retail diplomacy, the state leader interacts, meets and shakes hands with a wide spectrum of scholars to monks to workers. Retail diplomacy not only enhances the perceived approachability of the leader in the eyes of the public but also helps in developing very strong interpersonal relationships. Thus, the two core diplomatic values identified in the Modi Doctrine are as below: https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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While interacting with world leaders, Modi ensures that he develops a strong personal chemistry with them. Modi’s idea is that a strong personal bond helps India to bargain its national interests at the highest level possible. One of the most important influences of RSS on Modi’s foreign policy has been his interest in spearheading India’s culture and values and promotion of the same at a global level. The RSS background has infused this value in Modi who practises the same with much vigour in the foreign policy. His cultural and civilizational diplomacy is clearly reflected in his visits to temples in foreign states. The Modi doctrine is defined by his emphasis on 4D’s: Modi has adopted Democracy, Demography and Demand as key drivers to highlight India’s economic powers abroad. However, Diaspora is the oxygen to his foreign policy. Modi has, from day one, addressed concerns related to the Indian diaspora. On any foreign tour, Modi makes it point to address a gathering of the Indian diaspora. There are two purposes of addressing the diaspora. First, he addresses the diaspora to not only reconnect with them as a messenger from their homeland but also to convey to them the problems India faces in the twenty first century. In most of his addresses to the diaspora, Modi outlines domestic issues of India and government initiatives to tackle them. He often discusses issues like lack of manufacturing base in India, issues related to cleanliness and so on. In the address, he apprises the diaspora of initiatives the government has taken, ranging from Make in India to Swachch Bharat and so forth. The intention of this exercise is to convince the diaspora that they can emerge as effective stakeholders in the problems faced by India. He intends to convey to the diaspora that their contribution is imperative for India’s development story and its rise as a global power. Second, his address to the Indian diaspora in foreign countries are a message to the governments of those countries —‘if you take care of this constituency, they will take care of your governments in elections’. This diaspora diplomacy is a classic example of how the diaspora can be a catalyst for transformative diplomacy in the era of globalisation. His focus, in the long run, is to use the diaspora for domestic development. His intention is to attract the interests of the diaspora back home and affect a reversal from brain drain to brain gain. Thus, it is not wrong to say that Modi knows that the diaspora is a part of the great Indian family which will be a partner to India’s emergence as a global player. This is also in sync with the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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BJP’s perception of the importance of the diaspora. An important thing to remember here is that in his addresses to the diaspora, he would link the past, present and the future in such an array that the diaspora gets galvanised, energised and enthusiastic to play a role in India’s future. His addresses to the diaspora in the USA, Australia and the UK reflect the intermixing of past, present and future. The doctrine of the diaspora here aims to attract FDI to India and use it for domestic development. Modi’s idea of diaspora diplomacy is to ensure a collective Indian voice in the countries of their residence where they are simultaneously loyal citizens. Another very crucial dimension of the Modi doctrine is his thrust on economic diplomacy. All diplomatic engagements undertaken by Modi till date are driven by the economic thrust of making India a commercial power. The value of economic diplomacy was imbibed by Modi from Gujarat. Gujarat had been an important port of international trade during the peak of trade via the ancient silk route. Trade was natural to Gujarat and this had emerged as a crucial element of the Modi doctrine. Modi understood well that domestic growth rates cannot be boosted by domestic initiatives alone and that geostrategic imperatives arising out of external engagement with rest of the world are a key to India’s growth story. The economic diplomacy strategy of Modi is based on a model where domestic growth is to be propelled by FDI in the manufacturing sector. To make FDI absorption easy, the ‘Make in India’ initiative and ‘Skill India’ initiatives have been launched and steps have been taken to improve India’s performance in the ease of doing business. In 2014, Modi addressed the IFS probationers and instructed them to focus on enhancing India’s export potential in textile and traditional medicine. The important element here is that Modi understands the needs of the investors well and has worked upon government-to-business contacts. For example, in order to illustrate this idea, Modi, during an address at a business lunch in Tokyo in 2014, said that while he had been the CM of Gujarat, he had invited Japanese investments. As Japanese businesses came, he began to study Japanese tastes and found that the Japanese like to play golf. This led Modi to establish world class golf courses in Gujarat, thereby showing that what a proactive government can do for investors. For Modi, economic diplomacy is about marketing, streamlining, downsizing and modernisation brought about in a seamless manner within a global economy.
Under the new neighbourhood first policy, Modi’s key focus vis-à-vis India’s relations with its neighbours is economic trade. Modi believes that aggressive economic trade with neighbours will benefit all and the benefits will percolate deep down in the society. This will bring about a radical shift in the way its neighbours perceive India. The erstwhile image of India, projected to its neighbours as a ‘Big Brother,’ will transform into one of a collaborative ally and shall prove positive spill over for the entire region. At the neighbourhood level, connectivity has emerged as an inbuilt dimension of economic diplomacy. Apart from that, usage of India’s soft power capabilities has taken primacy in https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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the Modi doctrine. For instance, the intense diplomacy to get 21 June declared as the International Day of Yoga at the UN General Assembly is an example of soft power diplomacy. Thus, one may conclude that the Modi Doctrine is all about putting India into a higher international orbit and for achieving the same, tasks have been clearly cut out for the future. st
Our understanding of the foreign policy of Modi helps us to analyse few goals the IFP intends to achieve in the future. Modi has clarified that India is not going to be a balancing power but intends to aspire to be a leading power. India is to have a three step foreign policy (a) Observe and react to international events (b) If needed, infuse energy to shape international events (c) Occasionally, play a role to drive the events The government’s Indian Ocean strategy, economic diplomacy, development diplomacy, African Outreach, Pacific Island Outreach and Act East Policy are some of the bold and timely initiatives. The 3C formula of Connectivity, Contacts and Cooperation is being used. There is new energy for cultural diplomacy and Indian Diaspora and soft tools like yoga. We will see in the various chapters of India and bilateral diplomacy in subsequent sections that a new tool of gifting spiritual texts of India to world leaders is a new phenomena. Though there is a thrust on building a personal chemistry with leaders, we need to be careful as personal chemistry does not always give results. The issues with China on NSG, Masood Azhar are some examples. Modi has realised that even if diplomacy may not fetch political votes domestically, it does enhance India’s standing in the world and helps garner resources for developing India. At times, domestic political standing can be improved if a country leverages external partners well. In 1969, deeper embrace of USSR won the Congress support of the Left parties in India. This helped the Congress party counter the rivals on the Right side of the political spectrum. Though India’s great power diplomacy only boosts some excitement at the domestic political level, it is in reality, the neighbourhood diplomacy where there is greater domestic political resonance. For example, Nepal on Bihar, Sri Lanka on Tamil Nadu and Bangladesh on West Bengal explain the same.
Case Study Faith and Diplomacy In the recent times, Modi has taken steps to bridge a link between faith and diplomacy. In India’s Asian Policy, Buddhism has acquired a new focus. When Modi went to Mongolia, he delivered a lecture in their Parliament where he highlighted the importance of Buddhism to solve contemporary Asian and global challenges. The IFP has always emphasised upon cultural, historical and civilisational ties and has tried to keep religion out of foreign policy engagements. Modi has initiated a new diplomatic path of using religion as a tool to promote global harmony, Globally there is a trend of using religion as a diplomatic tool. US has an Office of Religious and Global Affairs in the Department of State which assists the US Secretary of State on religious issues. European Union does so in case of West Asia while China has been doing so since long. India is trying to put its IFP in line with this global trend. It has https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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begun with Buddhism which helps India reinforce its leadership in South East Asia. Some scholars assert that under Modi, the IFP has turned towards a mixture of inward policy and internationalism. This policy strives to seek support for development of the country and at the level of Internationalism, aims to contribute to global humanity. At the inward level, our focus is on our national interests and at the international level we focus upon being a part of global institutional architecture. Modi focuses on three core points in diplomacy. 1. Personal energy with pragmatism 2. Focus on problem solving based diplomacy 3. Prioritizing national interests with economic diplomacy
ANALYSIS OF MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE FOREIGN POLICY OF INDIA FROM THE PERIOD OF COLD WAR TO THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD The basic theme we analyse in this section is the qualitative transformation in India’s foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. Our concern would be to investigate the philosophical changes in the foreign policy of India that compelled it to embrace a completely new relationship with the external world. The essence of the section is to capture the key drivers of foreign policy transformation at the end of the Cold War. One important thing to note here is that when Nehru was the PM, he tried to educate the political leaders and the public of India on foreign policy issues through his speeches. This was not the case after the end of the Cold War. The Indian Prime Ministers, from Rao till Manmohan Singh, did not favour much debate about the change of direction in the foreign policy. I K Gujral was the only exception and he did vocalise a few ideas and shed some insights on his doctrine. In January 1992, Narasimha Rao attended the special session of the UN Security Council (UNSC) on nuclear issues. At the special session, the UNSC declared that proliferation of nuclear weapons is a threat to world peace. Rao understood that the world is envisaging collective action to restrain states from acquiring nuclear weapons. The immediate priority of the USA was to make India sign CTBT and ensure India does not acquire nuclear weapon. Rao perceived that the special session of the UNSC had the backing of world powers. However, the greater dilemma for Rao was whether he could have allowed the international community to decide something that was at the very core of the national security of India, especially when the previous decade of 1980’s had been spent in verbal clashes with Pakistan with regard to the latter’s nuclearization policy? India’s domestic and economic position was not strong enough at that juncture to give the country any weight at the global level. The US, led by Bush at that time, proposed a multilateral agreement to India where India, along with Pakistan, China, USA and Russia, undertake discussions on nuclear nonproliferation in the subcontinent. For India, such a multilateral format of discussion was completely unacceptable because it favoured only a global framework in case of any discussion on nuclear issues. What irritated India further was that, as per the initiative envisaged by Bush, Russia, China and USA could supervise India–Pakistan nuclear issues. This was not acceptable to India as it saw China as a new guarantor of security in the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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region in which India considered itself an equal player. Instead of committing to the proposal outright, Rao favoured a deeper discussion with the US at a bilateral level. Rao successfully launched a dialogue with the US on one hand, and on other hand, at an invisible level, began to prepare India for a nuclear weapon. The nuclear scientists were instructed to prepare for a nuclear test but they demanded a delivery time frame of minimum two years. At the diplomatic level, India kept on bargaining for more time and searched for all rules possible in the diplomatic book to avoid an entry into a multilateral nuclear treaty. By 1995, India was ready to enter a different strategic pedestal by conducting a nuclear test. On 15 December, 1995, the New York Times reported that India was making preparations for a nuclear test at Pokhran. India, in order to give a sign of relief to the international community, affirmed that India is not planning Rubicon but also decided not to give up the future option of tests. Rao continued to face two key dilemmas. The first was what could be the economic consequences of the test and second was how could he finally undertake nuclear tests, thereby shedding off all normative dimensions in favour of the security considerations of the realpolitik. th
After the end of the Cold War, the security situation drastically changed. India’s sole supporter during the Cold War—the USSR—was no longer in the picture. China had been constantly arming Pakistan and equipping it with covert nuclear capabilities. The US, instead of developing relations with India as the largest democracy in the world, favoured the containment of India and its nuclear programme through the Clinton administration’s overt fixation on non-proliferation. Though India since Nehru was an ardent supporter of a CTBT aimed for complete Disarmament, in 1996, when India read the draft of CTBT, it realised that the real intention was not to go for complete Disarmament but ensure that states like India don’t acquire weapons. At this juncture, a school of thought argued that India should not undertake a nuclear test but instead outline the journey for developing credible deterrence. However, the scientific community ruled that for the deterrence to be credible, India would need to conduct a small number of tests to get data for subcriticality. The BJP government led by Vajpayee took the risk and went ahead with nuclear testing. The nuclear tests in 1998 gave India the opportunity to redress the contours of nuclear diplomacy. India was an ardent supporter of the fact that the world is discriminating between nuclear haves and have nots. After testing the weapons and being armed with a new confidence, India now began to call for incremental nuclear reforms. India shifted to advocacy for pragmatic arms control from its earlier strategy of disarmament.
Even post-1998, India has not given up the goal of complete disarmament. For India, the immediate priority was to conclude a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT) because India was of the view that states should focus on reducing the production of nuclear material. A cessation on the production of the nuclear material could be the first step towards a treaty for complete disarmament ahead. The Indian policy had thus shifted from https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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being a dissident at global nuclear level to a nation with its focus on developing an arms control regime. As the Cold War ended, there was considerable uncertainty about the future of India’s non-alignment. As the IFP progressed in the first decade after the end of the Cold War, India kept on defending the concept but the way its foreign policy was unfolding clearly indicated that India’s focus was no longer simply on non-alignment. The idea of nonalignment was developed by Nehru. Later, it turned into a movement called NAM. NAM offered India a platform to pursue its international relations. The Indian policy of staying non-aligned during the Cold War was based on the logic of maintaining strategic manoeuvrability. India professed the idea that the decolonised states could lead an independent worldview and a developmental strategy without getting entangled with the ideologies of the Capitalist West and the Socialist East. Non-alignment emerged as a third way of articulating the philosophy of the third world countries. As the Cold War ended, the idea of non-alignment lost its relevance and transformed into a philosophical relic. But many years into the post-Cold War world order, India kept on insisting that the spirit of NAM was still as relevant. Many Indian foreign policy practitioners asserted that the spirit of NAM was alive in the pursuit of multilateralism and opposition to military alliances. India followed a policy of adopting itself to the changing world scenario after the end of Cold War but decided not to give up the past altogether. During this time of a changing world order, Narasimha Rao emerged as a chief architect of the change of the IFP. He did not reject NAM altogether but began to reorient the IFP incrementally. As Rao opened up the Indian economy, and at the foreign policy level, Rao steadily began a more serious rapprochement with the West. India’s pro-West tilt later on continued under the regime of Vajpayee. The Vajpayee government, without discrediting NAM, somewhat marginalised it and continued with a pro-USA approaching its foreign policy. The relevance of NAM during cold war lay in giving international voice to a country like India which had not much real power. After the 1998 nuclear test, India had now acquired a new tool of military power to bargain with the world and thereby the utility of NAM automatically diminished. During the Cold War, non-alignment was used as an economic tool to seek economic aid from both camps. At the end of the Cold War, the old economic system led to severe economic crisis and had to be reformed. This also reduced the relevance of non-alignment. However, though the practitioners of IFP realised that the utility of non-alignment was decreasing, they failed in identifying an alternative to the policy. This, they felt, could deprive India of a force in global affairs. After the 1998 nuclear tests, India realised that the only way it could leave a mark on the international system was through a demonstration of its capacity to maintain peace. It realised that the idea of playing third worldism and anti-westernism cards would not help. India began to search for an alternative to non-alignment in the form of capacity demonstration. India now had the option of either sticking to NAM or establish a new partnership with the US and other powers. India began to conclude pivotal strategic partnerships with great powers to enhance its national strength. In fact, four months after the 1998 tests, Vajpayee announced that India and USA are natural allies. This announcement was a radical departure from India’s erstwhile foreign https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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policy which was bent upon non-alignment. This insistence on a natural alliance by Vajpayee saw its magnification during the regime of Bush who took the Indo–USA relations to an unthinkable level and brokered a nuclear deal with India, enabling it to emerge as a true world power. As India enhanced its ties with USA, it insisted that the IFP stood for multi-polarity and not an alliance with the west. India clarified that its policy was to engage with all world powers who served India’s national interests. India began advocating a multi-polar world but this advocacy clashed with its natural alliance with the US. Indian diplomacy, however, embraced this duality. India called for a deep relation with the US while keeping open the option to expand cooperation with other powers under the idea of multipolarity. The emphasis on non-alignment was replaced with advocacy of multipolarity and the gradual democratisation of foreign policy. The emphasis upon multipolarity asserted India’s rise as a major power in global politics. The new self-image of India was enhanced further by rapid thrusts in domestic economy since the end of Cold War, including the opening up of the Indian markets for the west. The recent developments in Indo–USA relations, like the conclusion of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), which is a tweaked version of the Logistics Support Agreement (LSA), which the US has with several countries it has close military ties, suggest that India will enhance its strategic space under the framework established by the US and that it may not be wrong to say that the possibility of a future alliance with west has started taking a root in Indian thinking. Indian advocacy of a multipolar world reflects that India intends to retail space for strategic autonomy. India, during Cold War, intended to be the leader of the third world. Since the end of the Cold War, India has switched over to becoming a developed power in the twenty first century. India, while negotiating with the west, asserts that it is the sole state outside Europe and North America that stands for the core values of European enlightenment. For that matter, scholar and professor Sunil Khilnani asserted that the Indian experiment is the third great moment of democracy in the world after American being the first and French being the second. For the practitioners of Indian foreign policy, Lord Curzon is a great source of strategic inspiration as his writings emphasised upon a powerful role India could play in the Indian Ocean and the rest of Asia. The Curzonians in the Indian foreign policy are of the view that India has the potential to influence not only the Indian Ocean but the entire arc from Iran to Thailand. During the time of Nehru, the partition of India and Pakistan became an obstacle to the influence India could leverage in the Indian Ocean. The complicated post independence relations with Pakistan and China imposed limitations on the exercise of hegemonic influence in the Indian Ocean. Throughout the cold war, India’s proximity to the USSR and its anti-USA approach also acted as deterrents to its display of power in the Indian ocean. Even though Curzon’s idea of India being a dominant player in the Indian ocean were formulated on the basis of British interests, there is no reason why India today, decades after the end of the Cold War realise the vision. Since the end of Cold War, India has switched its Indian Ocean policy. If during the Cold War, India’s policy was to keep foreign powers away from the Indian Ocean, now India intends to cooperate with the US and achieve influence over the Indian ocean as its natural strategic space.
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It will not be wrong to assert that since the end of Cold War, India has initiated a forward policy and its diplomatic activism is visible in India’s neighbourhood from its actions in Afghanistan to strategic partnership with Africa to the Act East Policy in East Asia. During the Cold War, because of the Indian policy of non-alignment and its closed economic orientation, India remained isolated. At the global level, it did talk about macrosecurity matters but could not provide any security to small states (like Singapore) in the region. Thus, during the Cold War, Indian policy was primarily a policy of masterly inactivity. The end of the Cold War ushered in a wave of freshness in the foreign policy thought of India. As it began to reorient its economy, it initiated commercial contacts with various states. The focus for energy security shifted to west Asia and for investments and trade to east Asia. An important element of the IFP became the focus upon building institutional link with regions. As India initiated a Look East Policy, it found easy synchronisation with ASEAN’s Look West Policy and thus began the Indo–ASEAN institutional co-operation. A new component of Indian strategy was to go for improvements in physical connectivity. The recently concluded BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal) agreement and India–Myanmar–Thailand highway are steps in the direction of a new forward policy. To shed off isolation, India stepped up defence cooperation with states in the region. The recent defence and naval contacts from the Gulf to East Asia are testimony to India’s growing defence diplomacy. India is now focussing upon institutionalised defence contacts and strategic dialogue as themes of its forward policy of defence diplomacy. India wants to be a key element in the maintenance of the balance of power in the Indian Ocean to balance an aggressive and rising China.
FINAL ANALYSIS It was only when the Cold War ended that India began to realise material capabilities and began to aspire to be a great power. It engaged with the US and began to boost the economic arms of its diplomacy. Two and a half decades of economic growth finally provided India the resources to modernise its defence forces. The biggest impact at the defence level is seen in the Indian Navy. Though Indian foreign policy has seen fundamental shifts since the end of Cold War, it has failed to bring about deep-rooted changes with Pakistan and China also at times India has failed to demonstrate leadership in matters of global governance, like climate change and foreign trade. The polemical arguments advanced by India at both places are hardly of any merit. Even recently, some foreign policy practitioners aim at reviving the idea of non-alignment which, as a paradigm, has lost its sheen in the post-Cold War times. Thus, unwillingness to shed off the past is preventing India from taking stands on global issues of critical importance. The unresolved question in the Indian foreign policy is what role India aspires to play at the global level. India does advocate for multi-polarity, and as we saw in the previous section, it also favours democratisation of institutions so that it can be a part of the decision making process of the bodies like the UN Security Council and the World Bank. In order to conclude this section, a few assertions can be made. Our study of IFP till https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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now shows us that Indian Foreign Policy during the Cold War had limited manoeuverability. The limitations were imposed by India’s normative policy of nonalignment and an insular economic policy. Nehru gave India the needed push at the foreign policy level. He ensured that India’s idea of non-alignment gives it a standing in the international arena, which, at the time, was highly divided due to ideological warfare. The tenure of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi saw attempts to take India away from the ideological accents introduced by Nehru. In this regard, the efforts of Rajiv Gandhi to remove the choke points in India’s external interests are worth noting. Rajiv not only injected blood in Indo–USA relations but went a step forward with China. The end of the Cold War led to a root-and-branch overhaul of India’s economic and foreign policy imperatives. The Nehruvian outlook of perceiving capitalism as an extension of imperialism leading to a deep hospitality to the West was replaced by new undercurrents in the foreign policy. The diplomatic straitjacket was now loosened up and India began a rapprochement with the West. The Cold War rhetoric of non-alignment and of being a protestor in the global system was replaced with greater aspiration for power in a multipolar world where India was now willing to take up responsibilities. The era saw diplomatic innovations by Indian diplomats who became reapers of investment from across the globe. The testing of nuclear weapon gave India a new power stature to influence and win over new friends in the international system.
Whether India’s being a part of these institutions at the global level will reshape the world remains ambiguous. India is not very comfortable with the ‘doctrine of responsibility to protect’ and is also, at the same time, reluctant in shaping the global programme to fight climate change. Though India is critical of existing arrangements, it fails to provide an alternative. What prevents India to adopt a more intellectual approach to foreign policy? The reason is perhaps India is too imaginatively limited and for the present, just willing to outline its own role in reshaping the global order as an emergent pole in the same multipolar world. The absence of quality trained foreign policy practitioners in the system has also prevented the policy makers to get access to rigorous analysis and changing paradigms in international relations. Thus, the future of the IFP lies in establishing new imaginative approaches at the diplomatic level which shall eventually decide what kind of role India would like to play in a multipolar world.
End of Section Questions 1. Personal chemistry has emerged as a powerful tool in India’s diplomatic kit since 2014. Discuss. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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2. Foreign policy rarely figures in domestic political debates in India. Discuss. 3. If India plucks the low hanging diplomatic fruit with the world, India’s efforts to detox the domestic environment will get a boost. Examine. 4. Convergence of Buddhism and democracy provides us a path to build a world of peace, cooperation, harmony and equality. Discuss. 5. Indian foreign policy is trying to be in line with the trend of faith diplomacy but India must guard against the dangers involved in implementation of religious diplomacy. Examine. 6. Turning statesmanship to salesmanship is a new phenomenon in Indian Foreign Policy. Examine. 1. For details of the Treaty and Soviet_Treaty_of_Friendship_and_Cooperation
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Section D India and its Neighborhood Relations Chapter 1 India and Neighbourhood Policy—Key Drivers Chapter 2 India and Bhutan Relations Chapter 3 India and Nepal Relations Chapter 4 India and Bangladesh Relations Chapter 5 India and Myanmar Relations Chapter 6 India and Sri Lanka Relations Chapter 7 India and Maldives Relations Chapter 8 India and Afghanistan Relations
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1 CHAPTER
India and Neighbourhood Policy— Key Drivers of the Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical analysis of India’s engagement with the neighborhood India’s Neighborhood First Policy Core Elements of Neighborhood First Policy Problems in Neighborhood First Policy Stratospheric Diplomacy Role of border states in Neighborhood Policy
HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S ENGAGEMENT WITH THE NEIGHBOURHOOD The entire South Asian subcontinent was unified under the British for the first time after the decline of the Mughal Empire in India. The British established a double line of defence, based on the policy of reverse slopes. Under this policy, as per the plan envisaged by the British, China and Russia were to have no presence in the subcontinent and the British tried to ensure this through the subordination of individual states. The British established a buffer state fence on reverse Himalayan slopes. The Partition of India and Pakistan in 1947 saw a reversal of the reverse slope policy and opened up the possibility of foreign intervention in the region which India did not favour. After the Partition in 1947, despite a loss of territory in borders of West and East, India emerged as a preeminent regional power since a huge amount of land still came to India. Due to a huge territory and its geographical importance in the subcontinent, the subsequent security conception of India was not national but geopolitical and regional in nature. India realised that, due to its geopolitical location, it would witness a threat first from powers of the region than powers outside the region. India felt that it may witness a threat from the neighbours who may be weak or unstable. India was of the view that if a neighbour is weak or unstable, it would be given an option to decide whether it wants an external, more powerful state, to intervene. This would bring external powers to a zone, India felt fell in its own sphere of influence. India felt that an unstable Pakistan meant a high possibility of a foreign intervention in Pakistan. Due to this reason, India has always favoured a stable Pakistan, but also not a Pakistan that may be strong enough to potentially emerge as a threat to India. China, through its investments in the Gwadar port and the China– Pakistan Economic Corridor, has favoured developing a strong economy in Pakistan to keep India under check. Thus, https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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for India, security of South Asia is based on stability of South Asia. India, in the neighbourhood, faces a Gringo problem. Like USA, India has realised that assuming dominance is a complex process. Other Asian states harbour a similar feeling for China. India has its own regional security policy. It feels that the South Asian subcontinent is India’s sphere of influence where India can be the only power that can intervene. India’s ideal policy is not to allow outside powers to intervene in South Asia as it feels that South Asia is its exclusive sphere of influence. Nehru propounded this view during his earliest days as Prime Minister. Some scholars have referred to such a view as the Indian Monroe doctrine. In the 19 century, USA exercised a similar influence in the Western hemisphere under the Monroe Doctrine. Nehru, after Independence, resonated with similar views when he advocated that foreign colonial powers should stay out of South Asia. During the Cold War, India followed the foreign policy of trying to limit the influence of foreign powers in Asia, but such an attempt proved difficult for India. During British rule, smaller states were provided a sense of security by the British. India lacked both the resources and the experience in governance to extend the same to its neighbouring states. th
However, India, during Nehru’s times, followed a global strategy of non-alignment to keep India away from Cold War politics. The neighbourhood policy did not receive the same attention as India tried to position itself as a neutral force in the era of bipolarity. The coming of Indira Gandhi brought about a change in India’s neighbourhood policy. She added a new component of bilateralism in the neighbourhood policy. Indira Gandhi insisted that India should bilaterally resolve issues of the region without any intervention from external powers. Indira ensured that external powers have no role when matters are resolved bilaterally by India. The Indian neighbourhood policy, for that matter, was always fraught with contradictions. Regionally, in South Asia, India clung to the precepts of the balance of power and sphere of influence, while rejecting the same internationally. Regionally India provided security to small nations while internationally opposing the intervention of the great powers in the affairs of the weak states. India, under Indira, preached bilateralism at a time when it globally advocated for multilateralism. Another feature of Indira’s neighbourhood policy was that she resorted to military interventions with a neighbour if it threatened India’s security. India’s intervention in 1971 during the East Pakistan crisis is a testimony to the fact. Many of the neighbours began to perceive India’s military strategy as an interventionist approach.
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When Rajiv Gandhi assumed control, the Indian intervention in Maldives and Sri Lanka in 1980s (explained in the subsequent chapters) transformed India into a perceptual regional hegemon. Many scholars raised issues with India establishing itself as a regional hegemon. They asserted that India, during Indira and Rajiv’s times (under Indira Doctrine and Rajiv Doctrine), did not provide economic and security benefits to the neighbours (as the definition of a regional hegemon warranted). In fact, as mentioned earlier, the South Asian states perceived India’s doctrine as interventionist in nature.
When the Cold War ended, India began to realise that the interventionist approach had become unsustainable. India was visibly upset by rising anti-Indian sentiment. In 1996, India began to negotiate a water sharing treaty with Nepal (explained in detail in the chapter of India–Nepal relations ahead). As the negotiation proceeded, a perception began to evolve in Nepal that India was grabbing the only national asset (water) that Nepal could lay claim to. As the crises deepened in 1990s, a new approach to the neighbourhood policy was needed. When P V Narasimha Rao became the PM, he evolved a fresh approach to the neighbourhood policy. He followed a hands-off approach. His idea was that India should not interfere in the functioning of the neighbouring states. If the hands-off policy did not create new tensions, it also did not contribute to reducing old problems. Later the, approach of Rao was carried forward by Gujral. I K Gujral, as Prime Minister, introduced a proper doctrine for the neighbourhood for the first time.
I K Gujral’s foreign policy doctrine was based upon the logic of non-reciprocity and generosity. Under Gujral, India re-evaluated its self-interests and decided to be more generous towards its neighbours. Under the Gujral Doctrine, India’s avowed aim was to build goodwill amongst its neighbours instead of leaving space for the development of anti-India sentiments. India, though its non-reciprocity and generosity, wanted to show to the neighbours that there lay a huge economic and political benefit in cooperating with India.
Some in the Indian foreign policy establishment found that the Gujral Doctrine was idealistic, but the neighbours and the other states appreciated non-reciprocity and generosity. The first missing link in the Gujral Doctrine was that Gujral did not have ample amount of time as the PM to force the foreign bureaucracy of India to accept the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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value of cooperation. Moreover, despite advocating openness and generosity, the Gujral Doctrine was reluctant on opening up foreign trade in the region.
When the Bharatiya Janta Party came to power in 1998, it became busy in managing the fallout of the Pokhran-II test. Most of the energies of the BJP were diverted into managing Pakistani state sponsored terrorism. The BJP government began to realise that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had begun to deepen its presence in Nepal and Bangladesh. The subsequent hijacking of the Indian Airlines IC-814 aircraft was testimony to this. As the BJP government began to shift its focus to its neighbours, it decided to use SAARC as platform for regional cooperation. However, the government was not able to achieve much success in using SAARC as a platform due to problems caused by Pakistan. The Vajpayee government wanted a kind of South Asian Union by upgrading the SAARC where there was a free trade amongst states and a very small negative list. India had a grand vision of using the South Asian Union under SAARC not only for economic cooperation but as a political union in the lines of European Union. However, one reason why the idea failed was that India, under the BJP, insisted on a security guarantee for economic cooperation. Till 1947, the South Asian subcontinent had good trade relations, but, when new borders were created, trade began to decline. Pakistan never opened up on trade owing to hostilities with India. Bangladesh, after a few years of its creation, also ceased enthusiastically cooperating on the economic front with India. Border trade became negligible. Globalisation had impacted trade, and it had compelled some neighbours to open up to India. However, since trade remained in favour of India due to trade surplus, the states were reluctant to further open up.
The Manmohan Singh government too tried to use SAARC as a platform to further integration amongst the neighbouring states. The UPA government favoured political dialogue with neighbours. It almost followed all dimensions of the Gujral doctrine without publicly accepting the same.
INDIA’S NEIGHBOURHOOD FIRST POLICY The previous section analysed India’s regional policy with respect to its neighbours as influenced by many regional dynamics. Firstly, in South Asia, since the end of the Cold https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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War, there had been a rise of international involvement in regional affairs. After USA invaded Afghanistan, it has continued to remain a dominant power in Afghanistan. This has only gone on to cement the USA–Pakistan relation that has been in existence since the Cold War. The USA’s dependence on Pakistan increased after USA invaded Afghanistan. Sri Lanka, on the other hand, witnessed the rising LTTE problem. In the recent times, Norway had emerged as a core player in solving the LTTE crisis in Sri Lanka. Nepal too has always been dependent upon foreign powers for economic assistance. There has been a rising Chinese presence in the region of South Asia. The Chinese Belt and Road initiative and its rising presence in the Indian Ocean have given jitters to India. India has realised the need to be a rising power in the post-Cold War times, which, many scholars read as India’s tendency to behave like a proto-imperialist power. India, according to such scholars, has not been able to enhance its influence in South Asia and has instead been perceived as a second-tier imperialist power by the South Asian states. Though, this scholarly view resorts to an extreme picture, the ground reality is that India’s abilities to push a strong regional agenda in its quest to emerge as a rising power has remained weak. Since the beginning of the Cold War till the present, the societies of South Asia, instead of working with each other to enhance cooperation at the regional level, have preferred to look towards the North for technology and resources. Due to this, economic interaction and integration of the South Asian region has remained largely neglected. Some scholars assert that India has tried to emerge as the regional hegemon, but this may not be a genuine assessment of India’s neighbourhood policies because a regional hegemon provides economic and security benefits to other states while India has not done any such thing in South Asia. It is in this context, to rectify its earlier shortcomings in the neighbourhood policy, that India has announced its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy in 2014.
Modi’s vision of South Asia and the initiation of the neighbourhood first policy began on a political high when Modi invited all SAARC nation heads for his swearing-in ceremony in 2014. The idea of the neighbourhood first policy is to link India’s development to the development of South Asia. In order to realise this vision, a special focus is given to SAARC and the idea is to transform the entire South Asian region into an integrated economic union with enhanced connectivity. The neighbourhood first policy has picked up grains from the Gujral doctrine without publicly accepting the same. India, under the neighbourhood first policy, has conveyed that it shall attach enormous political and diplomatic capital to fostering cooperation with the neighbours. A special thrust is laid upon improving connectivity within South Asia so that all the states in the region can benefit from mutual cooperation leading to shared prosperity.
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On the neighbourhood level, India has put a dedicated SAARC satellite for all its neighbours. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) launched the satellite in May 2017 for India’s neighbours so that they take advantage of telemedicine and e-learning. Under the neighbourhood first policy, Modi first visited Bhutan. The subsequent chapter on India and Bhutan will throw light upon his core foreign policy achievements. His visit to Nepal also strengthened the idea of India prioritising neighbouring states. In a landmark visit to Bangladesh, Modi concluded the long pending Land Boundary Agreement. The visit to Sri Lanka happened after a long gap. Modi also became the first head of the state to visit the Northern Sri Lankan region where Tamils reside. The basic idea of the neighbourhood first policy is that India would shape events in its neighbourhood rather than merely reacting to them. Such an attempt to shape events is in sync with India’s quest to play an important role in global affairs. It also signified that India is now willing to shoulder responsibilities in its neighbourhood. Through the neighbourhood first policy, the idea is that India wants to adopt a well-defined model for promoting economic cooperation in areas of mutual interests. At the heart of India’s neighbourhood first policy is the economic diplomacy strategically followed by India. India wants to use the neighborhood first policy not only to limit rising Chinese presence in South Asia but also expand India’s influence in South Asia through commercial diplomacy. The focus of the policy is on fostering regional trade through connectivity. The idea of the policy is also to use its pro-USA tilt in foreign policy to achieve a larger role in South Asia by emerging as a Net Security Provider.
The core idea of Neighbourhood First Policy is ‘Vistaarvaad Nahi, Vikasvaad’. (The focus is not expansion but development for all.) India wants to establish a developmental compact with South Asia by line of credits, grants, skill development, and technology transfers to all in the neighbours. India wants the development compact as a catalyst for growth in South Asia. Under the Neighbourhood First Policy, India has infused a new level of energy at two levels in its bilateral ties with neighbours. One of the first components of the new policy is to work upon building up of defence relationships. In 2017, when the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Shiekh Hasina visited India, the two sides concluded a defence cooperation pact, In the post Cold War period, India has realised that the growing economic influence of China in India’s neighbourhood is likely to have strategic consequences, Scholars argue that India has woken up late to the strategic power play in the subcontinent, but, India has now sought to expand its defence and strategic influence under the Neighbourhood First Policy. India now intends to build up its defence production base under Make in India https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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programme to catch up with China. Secondly, under the Neighbourhood First Policy, India has committed many projects in the neighbouring states but, there are several constraints in India’s strategic diplomacy. Firstly, inadequate resources create a constraint. Secondly, most of the diplomatic scholars assert that even if India is able to commit projects, it fails to invest proportional diplomatic capital to pursue the projects. Due to this, the projects get delayed and lags are imminent. Thirdly, the strategic diffidence in the strategic culture of India is aggravated due to its insistence on going solo for such engagements. To address such issues, India needs to evolve a grand strategy for the neighbourhood. Secondly, India needs to evolve a multilateral approach based upon global consensus on core challenges. For example, when India asserts that a multilateral approach is needed in development, it can apply the same thoughts to live diplomatic instances. For the last 13 years, India has been trying to develop the Chabahar port in Iran. The project has been delayed and is yet to be completed. When we apply the multilateral formula, we argue that instead of India developing the Chabahar port alone, it can take help of Japan in financing and technology and co-develop the port. In fact, developing a loose multilateral coalition driven by the strategic objectives and interests of India can help in mitigating the self imposed unilateral biases we have in engaging with our neighbourhood. The essence of India’s new policy is to build up a new geo-economic constituency in the neighbourhood.
Case Study Aid to the Neighbours Since 1950s, India has given technical assistance to neighbours like Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan. India has been giving Human Resource related training in India’s https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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neighbourhood under non-planned grants in the budget. India uses ITEC scholarships and line of credits as a tool of development diplomacy. The Ministry of External Affairs grants lines of credits to Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal while the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance allows lines of credits to other states. In 2003, India launched the India Development initiative. Now, lines of credit are not granted by the Department of Economic Affairs but interest subsidies are provided to the Export-Import Bank of India (EXIM) bank and they, in turn, grant lines of credit. India also provides aid to foster relations as a goodwill gesture. Such aid is in sync with the ancient Indian value of daan or ‘charity’. Some scholars argue that this aid is a step by India towards establishing regional hegemony while others tend to argue that aid by India to other states is to promote political and economic goodwill for mutual interests and shared prosperity. India and neighbours have a weak link at the political level. The exchanges are not frequent at the political level, and therefore, mutual trust has not been built up adequately over the years. Even when political exchanges happen, India has shown reluctance in compromising its expectations. Political will to resolve historical disputes with Pakistan and China has been relatively weak. Lack of economic, cultural, commercial planning and delivery deficits are high. South Asian nations feel that, for India, its neighbourhood policy is more about security than anything else. For India, even if integrity is at the core of its policy, it cannot have a Dhritarashtra-like blindness and have its eyes shut to security concerns altogether.
Case Study Instances of Subtle, Distasteful and Unimaginative Diplomacy India’s neighbourhood policy began on a positive note but things have not progressed well. Nepal alleges that India has interfered in the internal affairs of the state and such intervention has not been appreciated by the Nepalis at all. India has publicly expressed unhappiness with the Nepali Constitution. The chapter of India–Nepal relationship will further elaborate upon India’s approach to the Madheshi issue. Nepal has alleged that India resorted to a blockade for which Nepal was compelled to complain to the United Nations. Nepal even alleged that India used R&AW to topple the Oli government. Things have normalised at present after the recent visit of Bidhya Devi Bhandari to India in 2017. In Sri Lanka too, there were allegations that the then-R&AW station chief for Sri Lanka, K Elango, was an active supporter of the Srisena followers who intended to topple the Rajapakse government. In Maldives, allegations are that India has been overenthusiastic and displayed inappropriate behaviour when Nasheed was arrested. India even issued a public statement saying that it was concerned about the arrest of Nasheed to which Maldives reacted by stating that it did not appreciate any interference by others in its internal affairs. Such https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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instances clearly prove that India should stop behaving like the erstwhile British Raj and stop feeling that its diplomats are viceroys. India has to remember that if a neighbour follows up with China for investment, it has a right to do so and India should resort to patient diplomacy rather than displaying arrogance or resorting to a regime change. India should try to focus on other forms of diplomacy and create infrastructure to stabilise things than resort to coercive diplomacy. A parliamentary standing committee on external affairs has recently noted that India’s aid to neighbours has decreased and this is not a positive sign. Our Neighbourhood First Policy can only be effective when bolstered with the understanding of the political, historical and social dynamics of each neighbour. The present day foreign bureaucratic manpower is inadequate to build such capacities. Modi has attempted to emphasise upon economic integration, and if the goal materialises, then it could alter the face of the South Asian subcontinent and its future practice of international relations amongst each other. India has realised that a push towards economic integration could establish a conducive climate for resolution of political disputes. Pakistan remains the slowest camel in the caravan. It insists that only the successful resolution of political disputes can accelerate economic progress. India is now finding a way to bypass Pakistan. India has developed relations with Afghanistan and Iran. Also, India has concluded Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal–Motor Vehicle Agreement (the BBIN–MVA has been explained in subsequent chapters). The BBIN– MVA could become a South Asian growth quadrangle in the times ahead. India feels that Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal are untapped storehouses of energy. If Nepal and Bhutan have hydroelectric power potential, then West Bengal and Bihar have coal while Bangladesh, Assam and Tripura have hydrocarbons. The entire zone is full of endowments. India’s Act East Policy and BBIN–MVA are a step to develop the North Eastern Region as a growth engine under India’s Neighbourhood First Policy. Till now, India had remained reluctant as it felt that economic integration with neighbours would deeply affect India’s aid policies and India may lose its economic aid leverage. However, at present, India feels that economic integration could add fuel to political ties in the neighbourhood that would yield positive results on the economic front. Thus, India has now begun to look beyond Monroe Doctrine and has favoured cooperation.
In conclusion, we can assert that India has initiated the Neighbourhood First Policy for many reasons. Firstly, India wants a stable neighbourhood to undertake its own domestic growth. Secondly, because it gives a push to India’s own global ambitions as it can lay ground works for India to emerge as a Net Security Provider. Thirdly, India can peddle off economic diplomacy to the neighbours which they will find difficult to resist. Fourthly, such a policy will bring more economic and connectivity benefits for all. Fifthly, if others don’t undermine the national interests of India, they can enhance ties with India to go for regional economic integration. Sixthly, the economic integration can create a https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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conclusive environment for political negotiations. Seventhly, subsequent political negotiations backed up by economic dependence will stabilise the South Asian region as a whole. Lastly, by enduring primacy in neighbourhood, India can emerge as a global credible power. On 5 May 2017, India launched the SAARC satellite for economic and developmental priorities of the region. th
Case Study Role of Border States in Neighbourhood Policy The border states have a critical role in ensuring a peaceful neighbourhood. The development of border states will help India to pursue a regional power policy. Under India’s Neighbourhood First Policy and Act East Policy, the development of Border States is an agenda of high priority. The PM has envisaged a South Asian Customs Union (SACU). India, under its Neighbourhood First Policy, has augmented connectivity and participation in South Asia. The recently concluded BBIN–MV has been undertaken on the theme of sub-regional cooperation. The north-eastern states are envisaged as hub of the BBIN–MVA. There is a special focus on reverie transport development as well. India has changed its perception related to borders. It feels that borders with its neighbours are connectors rather than walls to protect them from outside interference. This change in the mindset with respect to the borders is not just restricted to using the borders for physical connectivity but also in using borders to facilitate speedy movement of goods, people, ideas, culture and technology.
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2 CHAPTER
India and Bhutan Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical background India–Bhutan Treaty–1949 India–Bhutan Commercial Diplomacy India–Bhutan Hydrodiplomacy India–Bhutan Security Cooperation Chumbi Valley Issue Operation All Clear China factor in Indo-Bhutan relations Analysis of Visit of Indian PM to Bhutan, 2014.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND The ancient kingdom of Bhutan was originally the State of Monyul. Its traditional name is Drukyul, that is, the country of Drukpas or the ‘land of thunder dragons’. India’s relations with Bhutan go back to 747 AD when a Buddhist monk Padmasambhava went from India to Bhutan and led the Nyingmapa sect of Buddhism. Thus, India contributed to the cultural growth of Buddhism in Bhutan. In the modern times, there were Anglo–Bhutan wars and Bhutan became a part of British Empire. In 1910, as per the Treaty of Punakha, between China–Tibet and Bhutan, Bhutan was not officially annexed but the legal status of Bhutan itself remained undefined. When India became independent in 1947, Nehru went on a horseback to Bhutan to build relations and advised King J D Wangchuk to build relations with India. Bhutan also preferred India over China as, in 1949, when China took over Tibet, it did create tensions and fears of annexation in Bhutan. In 1949, India and Bhutan concluded a Treaty of Friendship. The treaty discusses peace, trade, commerce and equal justice between India and Bhutan. In the treaty, one important article was Article-2. As per Article-2, India accepted the sovereign and independent status of Bhutan but advised that Bhutan, in matters of external affairs, seek assistance from India. India did not interfere in internal affairs of Bhutan and in fact, in 1971, took up the matter of UN membership for Bhutan. The Indo–Bhutan treaty is the bedrock of India and Bhutan’s relationship.
INDIA–BHUTAN TREATY, 1949 India and Bhutan concluded a Treaty of Friendship in 1949. As per the treaty, India and Bhutan have agreed to extend national treatment to each other. As per the precepts of national treatment, Indian citizens have same right for employment in Bhutan as Bhutani https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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nationals do in India. Under the treaty, India and Bhutan have agreed to have an open border. Under the open border system, citizens of India and Bhutan have a right to move into each other’s territory without a visa. The treaty has a special mention of a clause of extradition. Again, as mentioned earlier, the Treaty has Article-2 and under the Article-2, Bhutan has to seek advice of India in matters related to external affairs. In 2007, Bhutan raised the issue of Article-2 with India and advocated the modification of Article-2. India, immediately agreeing to revise the treaty, modified the Article-2 in the treaty. This instilled confidence in Bhutan about its broad relations with India and made an impression that India is a partner in Bhutani progress. India recognises the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Bhutan. The treaty also talks about cultural cooperation, sports development, cooperation in science and technology and healthcare. Under the revised treaty of 2007, India and Bhutan will cooperate with each other on matters of national security.
INDIA–BHUTAN COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY The origin of commercial diplomacy goes back to 1961 when India began to provide assistance to the first and second five year plans of Bhutan. In 1971, when Bhutan became a UN member, the external aid it received got diversified as other nations in the world began to contribute. Bhutan has 80% of its trade with India and it majorly happens through the Kolkata port. There is a Phuntsholing to Paro road that facilitates Indo–Bhutan trade. Indian banks, such as the SBI and Bank of Baroda, have presence in Bhutan. Indian firms are undertaking work related to hydroelectric power, minerals exploration and construction in Bhutan. India imports from Bhutan, minerals, hydropower, wood and chemicals while it exports machinery and food products. The trade is governed by the Agreement on Trade and Commerce, 2006, which also provides for duty free trade and use of territory for third country transit. India and Bhutan also have a developmental partnership and India has assisted Bhutan in development administration, as can be seen in three phases. In Phase-1, from 1960 to 1980, initially, India provided support for physical infrastructure creation. The subsequent phase, from 1980 to 2000, was a period when Bhutan explored the dimension of a transition to democracy. During this period, India provided assistance for development of democratic values and provided capacity support for decentralisation. In this period, institutional sharing of the best democratic and decentralisation related practices were encouraged for exchange. The third phase, which is ongoing from 2000 till present, is where Indian developmental assistance has been diversified. Today, the assistance ranges from hydroelectricity generation to IT services including support in education and skill development. A comparison with Bangladesh–Bhutan trade is warranted at this stage. The relationship between Bhutan and Bangladesh is at three levels viz., trade, culture and environment. Bangladesh is very keen on purchasing power from Bhutan and allows Bhutan to use their sea ports for third country trade. A lot of Bangladeshi workers have been significantly present in Bhutanese construction companies.
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INDIA–BHUTAN HYDRODIPLOMACY Bhutan is a Himalayan state with tremendous hydropower potential. It is an upper riparian state where rivers originate. Bhutan exports around 45% of its hydropower to India. Surprisingly, the electricity generation in Bhutan was developed in 1960s with Indian assistance itself. India in the 1960s, had provided Bhutan with diesel sets which helped in providing electricity in towns. During this period, Bhutan lacked capacity to generate electricity and in 1967 Bhutan began to replace Indian diesel sets with import of electricity from Jaldakha plant in Bengal. In 1989, India helped Bhutan with the establishment of a 33 Megawatt electricity plant in Chukha. It is only in the 1980s that, with Indian assistance, Bhutan realised the potential of hydropower. Bhutan also became convinced that hydropower generation is safe and is environment friendly. Bhutan realised that if it succeeds in developing hydropower, it can also emerge as a net exporter of the same which can eventually help Bhutan generate foreign exchange. They began to seek Indian assistance which can be broadly seen in two phases. Phase-1—1987 to 2007: In this initial phase, India provided assistance to Bhutan in the establishment of specific site based plants at Chukha, Kurichu and Tala. India provided monetary assistance in the form of 60% grant and 40% loan for these projects. Meanwhile, India domestically worked to establish grid infrastructure in its territory. As these plants became operational, they supplied electricity to India and this electricity from Bhutan fed the Northern and North Eastern power grid in India. Phase-2—2007 to 2020: In this phase, India has committed to undertake creation of mega hydro plants in India primarily to harness the targeted 10,000 Megawatt electricity by 2020. Over a period of time, due to the existence of hydrodiplomacy between India and Bhutan, some issues have erupted on both sides. The Indian side witnessed massive flooding in the downstream state of Assam in 2014. Bhutan alleges today that due to hydro cooperation with India, there is a dominance of Indian firms in Bhutan. It feels that an overwhelming presence of Indian firms in Bhutan has restricted the space of growth for the Bhutanese corporate sector. Moreover, Bhutan feels that the Indian firms end up recruiting cheap Bangladeshi labour, as a result of which Bhutanese don’t stand to benefit from the diplomacy. This issue was taken up by Bhutan during India PM visit to Bhutan in 2014. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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INDIA–BHUTAN SECURITY COOPERATION Since the 1962 Sino–India war, India has been focussing on forward access to the upper reaches of Himalayas to keep an eye on China. In this respect, Bhutan becomes strategically significant from the Indian point of view. India has strategic presence in Bhutan. Bhutan, due to its border skirmishes, does not have a diplomatic relation with China. An absence of diplomatic relation with China enhances India’s chance to exercise its sphere of influence in Bhutan. India has established the IMTRAT, that is, the Indian Military Training Team unit, in Haa district of Bhutan.
Under a bilateral agreement, India also provides training to army officers of Bhutan in India. The Border Roads Organisation has, since 1961, run Project Dantak. Under this, the BRO provides for roads construction, telecom works, colleges, schools and other infrastructure. Under the project, there have been notable achievements too.
Case Study Chumbi Valley Issue Chumbi valley is a tri-junction between Bhutan, India and China. It is close to the chicken’s neck (the Siliguri corridor) and a gateway to India’s north east. Chumbi valley holds significance for China as it connects Tibet and Sikkim and China wants to expand its manoeuvres here. The Bhutan–China border problem began in 1950 when China published a map and claimed the West Bhutan area. This map also included Chinese claims on North Bhutan. China and Bhutan began negotiations on border issue in 1984. China, in West Bhutan, claims Doklam, Charithang, Sinchulimpa and Dramana pastures. This brings China close to Chumbi Valley, between Sikkim and Bhutan. The Chumbi Valley has one artery running from the Tibetan city of Shigaste to Yatung. By claiming area in West Bhutan, China can widen its land and in the eventuality of war, it can have more space on their side as otherwise, the size of Chumbi Valley is less for the stationing of any number of troops. For India, any such claim is dangerous as Chumbi Valley is barely 500 km from the Siliguri corridor, which is a narrow strip of Indian territory connecting the Indian north east to the rest of India.
Case Study Operation All Clear In 2003–04, the Royal Bhutan Army launched a mega operation to eliminate https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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militarily ULFA and NDFB cadres in South Bhutan. As Bhutanese army launched the operation, Indian army positioned itself near the border. Indian army placed 12 Battalions along the border to ensure no insurgent cadres enter into India. Bhutan successfully neutralised 650 insurgents and destroyed 30 insurgent camps.
CHINA FACTOR IN INDO–BHUTAN RELATIONS When the British left Bhutan, the Chinese captured some border villages of Bhutan. Since 1947, those territories are under dispute. Bhutan does not maintain diplomatic relation with China due to this persisting border dispute. This gives India enough space to exercise a sphere of influence in Bhutan. Even in the recent times, the border has not been resolved and China has undertaken tremendous intrusions into the border area around Bhutan. These intrusions deprive the people of Bhutan of forest produce and create uncertainty about their resources and livelihood. In recent times, China has begun to engage in cultural and religious diplomacy with Bhutan. China has committed itself to the establishment of the tallest statue of Buddha in Bhutan (in Thimpu). It is investing in the telecom sector of Bhutan as well. In Rio+20 Summit in 2012, the Bhutanese PM met Wen Jiabao and the two leaders did discuss a potential bus agreement and discussed other avenues of trade. But diplomatic relation remained off. The situation, as of 2017–18, is such that India still has an edge where Bhutan is concerned.
ANALYSIS OF VISIT OF THE INDIAN PM TO BHUTAN, 2014 In 2014, after the swearing in of the new government, the thrust towards neighbourhood first policy saw the Indian PM, Narendra Modi, visiting Bhutan. During his visit, the PM inaugurated the Supreme Court building in Bhutan, made with Indian assistance. He addressed a joint session of the Bhutanese Parliament. Normally, the people of Bhutan do not use clapping as a congratulatory gesture. However, when the PM delivered a wellcrafted speech, the Bhutanese legislators in the house clapped to convey a positive gesture to the PM. The PM also laid a foundation for a 600 Megawatt Kholongchu Hydroelectric power plant and announced two hundred scholarships worth two crores for the Bhutanese youth. The PM committed establishment of a digital library to give access to two million books for the youth of Bhutan. To pacify fears of Bhutan related to dominance of Indian firms in hydropower sector, the Indian Prime Minister agreed to establish a Power Training Institute in Bhutan to provide its youth skilled training to ensure they contribute to the Bhutanese workforce. Bhutan has an open economy. Due to a liberalised system, Indian FDI finds place in Bhutan. But, Bhutan also has high number of Indian firms. In 2014, during the PM’s visit, he had committed Indian assistance for the skill development of Bhutanese youth. Bhutan faces a Rupee crunch at the financial level and to address this, India has agreed to provide Bhutan with a credit facility. The hydropower generation of Bhutan is basically seasonal in nature. In the recent times, domestic consumption of power in Bhutan is on the rise. In the winter season, Bhutan imports electricity from India while in summers it exports electricity to us. To address the problem, India has agreed to establish a power bank in Bhutan in future. The Indian PM also agreed to assist Bhutan in the establishment of a University of Himalayan studies in Bhutan. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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3 CHAPTER
India and Nepal Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical background Nepalese struggle with democracy India–Nepal treaty of peace and friendship, 1950 Critical issues in Indo–Nepal treaty India–Nepal border related issues Case Study on security threats at the border Hydropower diplomacy Commercial diplomacy China factor in India–Nepal relations Analysis of Indian PM visit 2014 India–Nepal power trading agreement India and Nepali Constitution India and Madhesi Problem and the blockade BBIN–Motor vehicle agreement Analysis of visits from Nepal to India
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND The relation between India and Nepal goes back to the times of rule of the Sakya clan and Gautama Buddha. Initially, Nepal was under tribal rule and only with the coming of Licchavi rule in Nepal did its feudal era truly begin. Feudalism in Nepali society owes its origin to Licchavis. From 750 to 1750 AD was a period when Nepal came under Newari rule and they consolidated their presence in Kathmandu. This time period also saw a shift from Buddhism to Hinduism in Nepal and witnessed widespread cultural diffusion. In the 12 century, during the Malla period and rule of Yakshamala in Nepal, the two nations reached their cultural zenith. The early 1700s witnessed a change in the Nepalese power structure. The subsequent period witnesses both monarchical and prime ministerial rule. In 1846, Jung Bahadur Kunwar established a dynastic rule for the Prime Minister, known as the ‘Rana’. The Rana rule took hold and continued in Nepal till 1951. Though the Rana regime was not very efficient, it did contribute to social developments in the field of schools and education. In the 1920s, as the Indian freedom struggle progressed, many educated Nepalese people came to India and partook in the struggle. This gave the Nepalese elite an insight into nonviolent struggle. The Nepali elite subsequently launched a movement in Nepal and succeeded in ousting the Rana rule. The most instrumental role th
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in this movement was played by the Nepali Congress (NC).
NEPALESE STRUGGLE WITH DEMOCRACY In 1951, after the ousting of the Rana rule, the monarchy continued to dominate Nepalese politics. Three important kings with respect to this period of Nepalese history are King Tribhuvan, Mahendra and Birendra. In the elections that were held in Nepal in 1951, Nepali Congress party (hereafter referred to as NC) won. The period of 1951 to 1959 witnessed the King, Tribhuvan Bir Bikram Shah, and thereafter, his successor, Mahendra Bir Bikram Shah, and the NC struggle to control Nepal. The situation was not stable due to the insecurity of the king as the king wanted to retain his power and was not keen on sharing power with new democratic elements like the NC. In 1959, the confrontation between the king, Mahendra Bir Bikram Shah, and the NC reached a level where the king declared NC as corrupt, removed it from power and subsequently installed a party-less Panchayat system. This system was such where people would elect their representatives but actual power would be wielded by the King. Thus, a highly centralised rule began from 1960. The period of party-less Panchayat System witnessed protests from NC and other sections of society. The protests finally culminated in the First Jan Andolan in Nepal in 1990. During this time, the King Birendra Bir Bikram Shah, divested of any other options, brought back democracy and a new government under the NC was formed. During the rule of the NC in Nepal in the period after 1990, there was not much progress witnessed on the developmental front. In 1994, the Unified Marxist Leninist Party (UML) tried to generate an anti-India feeling in Nepal. The UML began to assert that the NC is in reality controlled by Congress party of India. This led to a perception amongst the Nepali people about India’s control and interference over Nepal and its internal affairs through the NC. The anti-India plan worked in favour of UML and they succeeded in capturing power for a short period of 9 months in Nepal. The UML was removed and the NC assumed power again in 1994. The subsequent period not only saw civil unrest but also witnessed the development projects of Nepal suffer. The civil unrest, over a period of time, evolved into civil uprising and took an ideological turn to Maoism. The Maoist movement in Nepal became fully manifested by 2005. Perceiving the unrest and violence in society, King Gyanendra dissolved the Parliament again. This dissolution of the Parliament caused massive protests, ultimately leading to the second Jan Andolan in 2005. The Jan Andolan led to a signing of a Peace Accord in 2006. An interim constitution was prepared in 2007.
As mentioned, the 2006 Peace Accord planned that Nepal would establish the new constitution by 2010. However, by 2010, the constitution was not ready. It got delayed due to two key issues. The first related to the disagreement about the succeeding form of https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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government. Maoists favoured the Presidential system while others favoured Parliamentary system. The second issue related to federalism. Maoists favoured ethnic federalism while others rejected the idea. Another important factor that delayed the Constitutional development was Madhesi assertion. Madhesis are people living in South of Nepal in the region of Terai. They are people living close to the border of India. The Madhesis have always been discriminated against by Pahadis or the people living in the upper reaches of Nepal. In fact, the discrimination against Madhesis at one point of time, was so intense by Pahadis that if a Madhesi citizen wanted to visit Kathmandu, they had to apply for a permit. The Madhesis, through their representation, demanded rights in the new constitution. After tremendous delays, Nepal finally accepted a constitution in September 2015.
INDIA–NEPAL TREATY OF PEACE AND FRIENDSHIP, 1950 India and Nepal, on 31 July, 1950, signed a Treaty of Friendship and Peace. This treaty acts as the bedrock of the relation between the two nations. The treaty extends mutual peace, friendship and sovereignty to each other while it accepts non-interference in each other’s territory. As per the treaty, Nepal would consult India whenever they undertake any arms imports from any nation other than India. st
The treaty lets the nations extend national treatment to each other. The national treatment clause also extends for industrial and economic development. Basically, under Indo–Nepal national treatment, their citizens are empowered to the same privileges for property, trade and residence and movement in both countries. That means, a Nepali citizen can buy property in India while and Indian citizen can do so in Nepal if he/she so chooses. Also, an Indian citizen can reside anywhere in Nepal and a Nepali citizen too enjoys the right to residence in India under national treatment. Another important point of the treaty is open borders. As per this point, Indian citizens can move to Nepal without the need of a visa and vice versa. As per the Article X in the treaty, either party can ask for a change in the treaty whenever demanded.
Case Study Critical Issues in Indo–Nepal Treaty The Treaty favours Nepal more than India, but Nepal still has certain issues with it. Nepal initially complained that when the treaty was concluded in 1950, India concluded the treaty with a Rana ruler. Nepal alleges that India signed the treaty with the Rana who had become unpopular. Certain sections in Nepal also alleged that the way treaty was signed signified that India considered Nepal as a small state and not an equal state. It was further alleged that the conclusion of the treaty by the Indian ambassador and Nehru himself not coming to sign the treaty signified an unequal https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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status of the countries. As mentioned earlier, in 1994, the UML had successfully generated an anti-India plank in the election. Since then, raising anti-India slogans and alleging that the Indo–Nepal Treaty of 1950 favours India more than Nepal has become a norm for gaining political mileage. Many times, Nepali political parties have demanded a change in the treaty. Under Article X of the treaty, Nepal can ask India to bring change and India has to establish a mechanism for the same. Whenever Nepal has asked for a change in the treaty, India has accepted the Nepali request, but, absence of consensus in Nepal on issues that need revision prevents any meaningful engagement about the issue. This demand for revision of the treaty was recently also raised during Indian the PM’s visit to Nepal in 2014.
INDIA–NEPAL BORDER RELATED ISSUES India and Nepal have an open border with each other—a practice that dates back to the British times. Even the British had continued to maintain an open border between India and Nepal. The British and Nepal, after the Anglo–Nepal wars in 1814, concluded the Treaty of Sagauli in 1816. The British had drafted the Treaty of Sagauli on 2 December, 1815. The treaty was to be signed by Nepal by the deadline of 17 December 1815. Nepal refused to sign it by the date declared. The British subsequently threatened an invasion of Kathmandu and after a 92 days stalemate, a courtier, C S Upadhyay, signed the treaty. The Treaty of Sagauli was not signed by the King and thus led to troubles in later times but the Treaty established Mahakali River as a dividing line in the Western sector. nd
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After Independence, India continued with the tradition of an open border and it was noted under the Indo–Nepal Friendship Treaty of 1950. The open border has helped domestic Nepalese people to take advantage. The people of Nepal, through the open border, also entered into India for economic opportunities. The Nepalis who come to India for work are well accepted in India and are not treated as aliens. Nepali citizens have important contribution in India’s security setup as well. The entire border is demarcated by border pillars but at various stretches, due to natural calamities and lack of maintenance, the border pillars have gone missing, necessitating a proper demarcation of the border to ensure that an absence of the same doesn’t lead to escalation of tensions. In 1981, India and Nepal established a Joint Technical level Boundary Committee to survey the boundary again. The committee in 2007 submitted 182 strip maps which were to be ratified by both nations. The ratification of the 182 strip maps is still pending as of 2017. In July, 2014, both countries established a Boundary Working Group (BWG) to resolve the Kalapani and Susta issues. The main issue related to the border management between India and Nepal is that the borders have been demarcated on the basis of a flowing river. The problem is that the rivers shift their courses over a period of time. This impacts the border which gets affected due to shifting rivers. No doubt the boundary of the river is also based on a principled fixed border but if the river shifts, it results in creation of adverse possessions. The shifting of the rivers has led to the destruction of boundary pillars. The BWG will use GPS observations and generate data. The data will be used by the foreign secretaries of both nations to solve pending border issues. The BWG is also to look into the Kalapani issue. The origin of the Kalapani issue goes back to Treaty of Sagauli. As per the treaty, Kali river is designated as the western part of the boundary. In between the two streams of the Kali river lies https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Kalapani. The issue arises as the segments to the West of Kalapani of Kali river are claimed by Nepal while India claims segments to the East of Kalapani of Kali river area, thereby making a claim to entire Kalapani. In the 1962 Indo–China war, Kalapani was occupied by Indian forces and India considers it strategically important.
Case Study Security Threats at the Border The open border has fostered socio economic linkages between the two nations and India also provides national treatment to Nepali citizens. However, since the end of the Cold War, the border has created some concerns. Intelligence reports today suggest that Pakistan has been taking advantage of the open border to infiltrate into India and that it uses the Nepal border route to pump fake currency into India with an intention to destabilise the Indian economy. The open border has given rise to criminality. Today, criminals of both nations use each other’s territory for refuge making it tough for law enforcement agencies to track and catch criminals. There have been numerous cases of drug trafficking, gold smuggling, human trafficking and illegal arms trade that have been reported. Though closing the border is no solution, better management of the border areas are required. A Cross Border Crime Control Action Plan can be prepared and jointly enforced. Shashastra Seema Bal (SSB) can be empowered with modern technology and also empowered under the Passport Act to arrest criminals. (In July 2017, the Government of India has given the approval to SSB to establish its own intelligence wing).
INDIA–NEPAL HYDROPOWER DIPLOMACY Nepal is an upper riparian state and has a hydropower generation potential of around 80,000 Megawatts power. However, it has installed a capacity of around 800 Megawatts only. On an average, 15 to 18 hours of power cuts are common throughout the country. Unfortunately, Nepal has not developed its hydropower potential due to a fear that if they undertake hydropower generation, India will assert dominance over the generated hydroelectricity. Despite the fact that India always cites the example of Bhutan–India hydro diplomacy as a successful case to Nepal, Nepal is still reluctant to improve its generation capacity. There are three treaties to regulate our water sharing today.
Let us examine each treaty individually. In 1954, India and Nepal signed the Kosi https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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treaty. Kosi river causes tremendous flooding and has been also called the Sorrow of Bihar. As per the treaty, the two sides agreed to cooperate to manage Kosi flooding. India, under the treaty, committed to create a low head diversion or a barrage dam which, through gates, can regulate Kosi’s water flow. India constructed the barrage in Nepal and Nepal agreed to give its management rights to India for 199 years. Over a period of time, certain sections in Nepal have brought up some issues pertaining to the Kosi treaty. A section in Nepal feels that barrages have a normal life of 50 years and India getting a lease of 199 years has given India rights to control it for long beyond the need. Certain sections in Nepal also allege that India, while managing the barrage, does not release adequate water for irrigation and during floods, opens the gates, leading to many villages getting submerged completely. A solution to this issue may come forth if both sides undertake a multi-stakeholder negotiation and resolve the issues. In 1959, India and Nepal also signed the Gandak River treaty. The treaty has 13 articles and under the treaty, both sides are to utilise water from the Gandak river to generate twenty thousand megawatts electricity. In 1996, both concluded Mahakali treaty. Under the treaty, India has agreed to undertake the creation of three dams at Sarda, Tanakpur and Pancheshwar. Both sides have agreed to share costs. However there has been no progress on these projects owing to pending social and environmental impact assessment.
INDIA–NEPAL COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY India and Nepal signed a trade treaty in 1996 which was later revised in 2009. Ninety five per cent of Nepali trade happens with India. Open border and twenty-two transit routes facilitate the trade. Raxaul, Tanakpur and Bratmandandi are prominent transit routes. There are more than 150+ Indian firms in Nepal working in manufacturing and services sectors. In 2013, both sides agreed to an Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade under which India has allowed the use of Kolkata port by Nepal for third country trade and designated customs points have been established. The trade is imbalanced as India exports a majority of things ranging from food products to petroleum products while imports, being negligible, primarily include wood and traditional medicines. There have been instances when some sections in Nepal have created a perception of a trade flood by India.
CHINA FACTOR IN INDO–NEPAL RELATIONS The basic reason of Chinese presence in Nepal is to ensure that Nepalese territory is not used by Tibetans for breeding of discontent. In the initial years, from 1950s to 1980s, the Chinese tried to build an economic presence in Nepal, which got enhanced tremendously post 1990s. China has increased participation with Nepal at the economic front. In the last decade, Chinese engagement with Nepal has got strengthened at soft policy level. For that https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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matter, China has opened up many Mandarin language training schools in the Terai region. Chinese are providing Mandarin language training to Madhesis to ensure that in the near future, the Madhesis emerge as potential labours to work in the ever-expanding Chinese economy. China has made inroads into Nepal in infrastructure, education and health sectors. India feels that the Chinese inroads into Nepal is necessarily to counterbalance the Indian influence in Nepal. Certain sections in the Indian security establishment feel that Maoism in Nepal has been encouraged by China and they have potential links with the Indian Naxalite movement, though this is not an officially accepted view by the Indian government today. In the recent times, Nepal has made a tilt towards China. China is helping Nepal to fill the infrastructure gap. Nepal wants to take advantage of the rail infrastructure built by China in Tibet. Nepal has asserted that its relationship with China is purely economic and will not be hurting the Indian strategic interests in any way. The rising Nepal and China cooperation also signals that Himalayas are not a barrier anymore and for India, a strategy to check the Chinese engagements is required rather than reactions. Chinese strategy is to directly engage with the Nepali politicians and this has led China to build more trust. The China-Nepal relations can be judged from the following facts: 1. Nepal-China Agreement on Transit and Trade 2. Nepal-China Rail link agreement 3. Joint Military Exercise Pact 4. Rasawagadi-Syabrubesi Road link 5. Nepal is a part of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative with a SEZ promised 6. 1200 MW project on Budhi river by Gezhouba group
ANALYSIS OF INDIAN PRIME MINISTERIAL VISIT IN 2014 TO NEPAL The Indian PM visited Nepal in 2014. During the visit, the PM paid a visit to Pashupatinath temple and even donated Sandalwood. The PM announced one billion dollars credit for Nepal and committed an immediate rise in scholarships for Nepali students for education in India from then 180 to the present 250. Nepal has agreed to complete a Detailed Project Report for the Pancheshwar project. Both sides have agreed to establish a Joint Commission to review Indo–Nepal Treaty of 1950. A new Track-II initiative called Expert Persons Group—Nepal India Relations has been established. India has agreed to provide assistance to Nepal on goitre control and also concluded various MoUs.
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India–Nepal Power Trading Agreement (PTA) Before the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Nepal, Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj paid a visit to Nepal and agreed to negotiate a Power Cooperation Agreement. During her visit, the draft was agreed to. It was believed that during the visit of the PM, the PTA would be signed. However, during the PM’s visit, the PTA negotiations could not be concluded. It was decided that within the next 45 days after PM’s visit, the PTA would be signed. The PTA between India and Nepal was finally signed in September 2014. Under the PTA, nine articles are concluded and it has been decided to have a review of PTA after 10 years. The agreement shall be valid for 50 years. Under the PTA, Nepal would give licence to Indian firms to undertake 28 surveys in Nepal to explore 8000 MW power generation. By 2021, GMR will establish a plant in Karnali to export 900 MW electricity to India.
INDIA AND NEPALI CONSTITUTION, 2015 AND MADHESI PROBLEM, 2016 Nepal is governed according to the Constitution of Nepal, which came into effect on September 20, 2015, replacing the Interim Constitution of 2007. The Constitution was drafted by the Second Constituent Assembly following the failure of the First Constituent Assembly to produce a constitution in its mandated period. The present constitution, which is its seventh, took almost nine years in the making. Nepal has alleged that India did not “welcome” the Nepali Constitution promulgated by the Constituent Assembly but merely “noted” it. What makes this constitution different from previous six constitutions is that old constitutions were written by monarchs and this seventh one is written by an elected Constituent Assembly (CA). The new Constitution has been written by politicians and not by Jurists and legal luminaries. It has adopted a rights based framework which is high on promises. The CA mechanism was adopted to ensure that the diverse social and ethnic groups of Nepal come together on a platform and work on rules to be made for the entire society. The CA aimed to have an inclusive order with all groups on board. However, the idea of a collective ownership to a constitution has not evolved. The Constitution has not given representation to the Madhesis on the basis of population. In the Pahadi region, there is one representative for every 5000 people while in the Terai region, it is one representative for every one lakh people. In the new constitution, the Madhesis and Tharus (who constitute 70% of the population of Terai) were left out. Madhesis consist of Maithili, Bhojpuri, Avadhi, Hindi and Urdu speaking people. The people in the hills or Pahadis consist of Limbus, Khambus, Magurs, Gurungs, Tamangs, Khasas and Nepali 1
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Aryans. Nepal has faced severe problems in accommodating people of South Terai. The Pahadis, in the new constitution, have reasserted their dominant role. The new constitution does not have equal representation of all groups in the Parliament. The total number of seats planned for the Parliament is 165. More than 50% of the Nepali population lives in the Terai region. The total seats allotted to people of Terai are just 65 in number. The Pahadi region has got 100 seats at a time when they had less than fifty percent of the population. India has requested Nepal to go for an inclusive constitution with equal representation. The Madhesis argue that by demarcating the Terai region differently, the Pahadis intend to destroy the roti-beti character. Under the roti-beti characteristic concept, women from UP and Bihar states of India who marry a Madhesi will be treated as a foreigner for upto five years from now. The Madhesis protests this and want Ek Madhesh, Ek Pradesh. As mentioned, in 2007, there was an interim constitution that had, since then, been governing Nepal. In the interim constitution, as per Article 63(3), it was stated that geographical position and special characteristics would guide the electoral constitution. The Article 63(3) also stated that Madhesis would be given representation as per their population. In the new constitution, Article 84, which talks of representation, has dropped the point related to Madhesis. The interim constitution, under Article 21, had advocated that various Nepali groups will participate in state structure on the basis of the proportional inclusion principle, while under Article 42 of the new constitution, is dropped, something that which India is asserting be reinserted. Citizenship issues are also at the forefront. Many Madhesis have acquired citizenship by birth or naturalisation. As per the new constitution under Article 282, it mandates that the posts of President, VicePresident and Prime Minister of Nepal and so forth, are to be reserved exclusively for those with citizenship by descent. India has been pitching for the addition of citizens who have acquired citizenship by birth and naturalisation also to be considered for higher posts. Over a period of time, some amendments were made by Nepal in Articles 42, 84 and 286 (dealing with the delimitation process). Some sections of Nepali groups in Southern Nepal for long undertook a blockade of Birgunj border in Raxaul. As a result of this, basic supplies could not reach Nepal. There was subsequently a severe shortage of commodities, including LPG cylinders. The Nepali people have a perception that through the blockade (in which India categorically denies any role), India has imposed its own version of economic sanctions in Nepal. The blockade has affected the people in the Pahadi region a lot. Even in case of the Terai region, due to the blockade, there was a strong anti-India sentiment. The major businessmen community in the Terai region consists of Marwaris. They have good relations with the people of the hills but are not very comfortable with the Madhesis, Due to the blockade, India’s story has not won and its soft power policy has been eroded. It is stated by a scholar named Joseph Nye that in the 21 Century, it is the soft power that wins. India must follow a strategy in Nepal that wields soft power influence. India should take steps to recognize the diversity of the Nepali people and work with all sections of the society to eliminate poverty. st
Due the blockade, the Nepali state began to witness fuel shortages. India annually supplies 1.3 Million Tonnes petroleum products to Nepal. Due to the blockade, Nepali people had to resort to cutting of trees to meet the fuel shortages, There was a massive deforestation and this led to a huge layer of smog in Kathmandu and other areas. Despite https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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immense poverty, Nepali people now had to face health related issues due to the smog. In February 2016, the Nepali PM, KP Oli visited India and brought about an assurance to India on constitutional changes. During the visit, he signed some MoUs and, jointly with Indian PM, inaugurated Muzaffarpur–Dhalkebar transmission line.
In August 2016, Pushpa Kamal Dahal-Prachanda became the new Prime Minister of Nepal. Prachanda sent his Deputy PM, Bimalendra Nidhi, as a special envoy to India on 18 August, 2016, and his visit created a ground for Prachanda’s visit to India in September. Prachanda’s visit focussed on support from India for reconstruction efforts in Nepal after the 2015 earthquake, improvement in road connectivity and industrial development. th
Case Study Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicle Agreement (MVA) In June, 2015, the four SAARC nations, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN) concluded a sub-regional MVA for regulation of passenger personnel and cargo vehicular traffic. The MVA will not only facilitate economic development and integration of the region but will simultaneously facilitate seamless movement of goods and people amongst the four signatory states. The governments will boost regional connectivity.
One of the major aims of the BBIN member states is to enhance connectivity and ensure seamless passenger traffic up to Thailand. The BBIN states are contemplating an MVA with Myanmar and Thailand as well. This would allow BBIN access to the ASEAN states. In the 2014 SAARC Summit in Kathmandu, there was a proposal to establish an MVA amongst all SAARC states. Due to reservations by Pakistan, the idea was dropped and a sub-regional MVA was envisaged which finally got concluded in 2015 in Thimpu. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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By 2016, all the states ratified the agreement, thereby paving way for seamless connectivity in South Asia. India and Bangladesh at the bilateral level have taken a number of steps to improve connectivity. In June, 2016, the two concluded a trans shipment operation agreement, enabling India the access to Ashuganj port of Bangladesh to be used for transporting goods to Tripura and other North Eastern States. There is an ongoing Kolkata–Dhaka–Agartala and Dhaka–Shillong–Guwahati Bus service already operational. One of the biggest achievements of the MVA would be that it will enable the establishment of regional South Asian supply chains, especially in textiles, yarn and readymade garments. Thus, it may not be wrong to say that the agreement indeed is a force multiplier that may boost economic integration in the region. The BBIN clearly is a step forward in India’s neighbourhood first policy. Bhutan had been a little hesitant with the MVA as it feared that an increase in the vehicular traffic in Bhutan due to the MVA from other states could lead to adverse environmental impacts on Bhutan. But studies have proven that regional MVA boosts not only economic integration but tourism as well. However, the truck and taxi operators of Bhutan have been quite critical of the MVA as they feel that the Bhutanese road infrastructure may not be able to sustain incoming vehicular traffic. The National Council of Bhutan, in November 2016, rejected the MVA. India, since then, has hopes that the royal Bhutanese government will take steps to ensure that all internal issues would be sorted out soon and the agreement would be operationalised. The issue raised by Bhutan has emerged as a key challenge to the implementation of the BBIN–MVA.
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ANALYSIS OF VISITS FROM NEPAL TO INDIA—SEPTEMBER 2016, APRIL 2017 AND AUGUST 2017 Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ visited India in September 2016, after taking charge as the Prime Minister of Nepal. During his visit to India, he reiterated his acknowledgement of India’s support in the development of Nepal. He outlined the new depth of the emerging Indian–Nepal ties due to continuous support of India in strengthening the institutions of democracy in Nepal. Prachanda also stated the importance of implementing the constitution of Nepal by accommodating the various and diverse sections of Nepalese society through an inclusive dialogue. During Prachanda’s visit, India extended 750 million US dollars’ worth line of credit to Nepal to undertake post-earthquake reconstruction. For construction of roads in the second phase in the Terai region and establishment of power transmission lines, substations and a polytechnic in Kaski, India has granted additional line of credit.
During the visit of Prachanda, certain MoUs were also signed.
In April 2017, Nepali President Bidya Devi Bhandari visited India and committed to continue the ongoing strengthening of bilateral ties between India and Nepal. Nepal has also got a new Prime Minister, Sher Bahadur Deuba. The India–Nepal relations have deteriorated due to the blockade and other issues in the recent times. Some scholars have asserted that economic pressure always does not lead to achievement of some specific goals. India has a history of using economic coercion to achieve its goals. From 1946 to 1993, India used its economic coercive powers to resist engagement with South Africa and a similar tactic was visible in Nepal in the recent times. Deuba has been a pro-India leader and now has a special responsibility to take the India–Nepal relationship forward. In August 2017, Prime Minister of Nepal Sher Bahadur Deuba visited India. Both sides tried to reboot the India-Nepal relations. In the meeting with his Indian counterpart, both sides have decided to put an end to some of the issues that acted as irritants in the relations in the recent past. There were widespread discussions on multiple issues. Most important has been the issue related to the open border. In the recent times, Indian security agencies have raised some security concerns. The Left parties in Nepal too have favored some restrictions on the border. Due to the losses in life and property caused by annual flooding caused due to monsoons, the two sides have decided to establish a permanent mechanism at the bilateral level to check the rise of settlements in the Chure (Shivalik) region. The two sides have discussed the impact of demonetization and GST on the Nepali economy. Discussion on Nepal selling electricity via Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur transmission line have progressed and the two sides have shown determination to resolve the pending issues. Nepal raised issues related to quarantine of Nepali agricultural produce by the Indian custom agencies and the high handedness of Indian Sashastra Seema Bal. The recent https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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meeting has been very fruitful and the two sides are likely to enhance their bilateral cooperation in the times ahead. 1. The previous constitutions of Nepal were enacted in 1948, 1951, 1959, 1962, 1990 and 2007
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4 CHAPTER
India and Bangladesh Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical background Anti–India faultiness in the relations Defense diplomacy Commercial diplomacy Land boundary agreement issue Maritime and security issues Teesta river issue and river disputes Energy security diplomacy Radicalisation in bangladesh Tipaimukh dam controversy Analysis of Indian PM visit in 2015 Analysis of Shiekh Hasina’s visit in 2017
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Bangladesh is closely linked to India through its shared culture and ethnicity with West Bengal. The language, a slightly varied dialect of Bengali, acts as a bridge between East India, North East India and Bangladesh. The piece of land where Bangladesh exists has undergone three partitions. It began in October, 1905, when the British, as per their ‘divide-and-rule’ policy, divided the Bengal Presidency on Hindu–Muslim lines. The Muslims, in majority in the state, landed in the area that was to later become East Pakistan. Due to massive mobilisation and political protests that eventually came to be known as the ‘Banga bhanga Andolan’, the territory was reunited on 12 December, 1911. However, as far as the national movement was concerned, the seeds for partition were already sown by the initial decision of the British to divide the region along religious lines. th
The Muslim League, which was established on 30 December, 1906 in Dhaka, later demanded that the area be under East Pakistan during the Partition of India in 1947. As the partition took place in 1947, it led to the formation of East Pakistan with large-scale riots preceding the event in Calcutta and Noakhali. th
The territory again witnessed a split in 1971 to become Bangladesh. The factors that led to divisions of East Pakistan in 1971 emerged in the period after 1947. East Pakistan always had inadequate representation; it got access to fewer resources and, despite the popularity of the Bengali language, Urdu was imposed as the administrative language. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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This led to confrontation between the government and the masses and violence erupted in East Pakistan. In 1970, when elections took place, the Awami League won the elections. The regime in West Pakistan refused to recognise the mandate of the election and unleashed violence, disallowing Sheikh Mujibur Rehman to take power. The subsequent planning of a pre-emptive attack on India by Pakistan forced India to militarily retaliate and support the formation of independent Bangladesh as a new nation. The confrontation finally led to emergence of Bangladesh in December 1971. From 1971 to 1975, came the era of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman who assumed power. In 1972, India and Bangladesh signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation which became the foundation of the modern India–Bangladesh relations. Today, in Bangladesh, there are two key parties. Awami League, headed by Sheikh Hasina, is a party which has stood up for secular ideals and is favourable towards India while Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) which is headed by Begum Khaleda Zia, is a party that favours Bengali nationalism and is not favourably inclined towards India.
Case Study Was the period of 1971 to 1975 a real honeymoon? In the period after the creation of the new nation of Bangladesh, the relations between India and Bangladesh were cordial, but some issues did erupt. In 1951, India had initiated the construction of the Farakka Barrage. It was on the river Ganga, which flows from India into Bangladesh, where its primary distributary is known as the river Padma. The river drains into Bay of Bengal after a confluence with river Meghna. In 1975, the barrage was finally constructed. Bangladesh began to insist that Ganga is an international river so the water flow must be regulated as per a mutual agreement. The reason for India to establish the barrage was to flush out the silt of Bhagirathi Hoogly river to ensure smooth operationalisation of Kolkata port. The two nations, in 1972, established a Joint River Commission (JRC) to negotiate terms of the water settlement. Soon, differences arose over fair weather flow of river Ganga. India asserted its right of regular flushing of water of river Hoogly, which Bangladesh vehemently opposed. This issue created some friction between the two nations. Some disagreements also emerged over post 1971 war settlements over the share of spoils. Bangladesh alleged that it did not receive a fair share of the spoils of war. The assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman on 15 August, 1975 ended the honeymoon period. th
The death of Mujibur Rehman saw a period of immense political instability when a coup and a counter-coup were staged in rapid succession, following which Zia-UrRehman finally came to power as Bangladesh’s seventh President in 1977. Zia was not favourably disposed towards India. He took the Farakka barrage issue to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). The UNGA urged him to resolve the issue at a bilateral level. The act of raising the issue at UNGA created further tensions in the already strained relations between the nations. In 1977, in India, Indira Gandhi was replaced by the Janata Party government, which made an attempt to revive the fractured relationship with Bangladesh. In November 1977, Babu Jagjivan Ram undertook an official visit to Bangladesh and signed an accord to resolve the Farrakka issue. However, other issues https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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persistent between the nations as irritants. Eventually, the border issue between India and Bangladesh began to unfold. Historically people of Bangladesh have been moving into the region of Brahmaputra valley due to the lack of habitable and arable land in Bangladesh. India perceives this movement as illegal immigration into Indian territory. The improvement in relations dipped with the comeback of Indira Gandhi in 1980 and finally improved somewhat during Rajiv Gandhi’s tenure. Rajiv Gandhi successfully concluded an MoU on water issues in 1982 and in 1985, signed the Nassau Accord, which resulted in another MoU valid for three years. A Joint Commission of Experts (JCE) was established for alternative water-sharing plans and to augment the Ganga–Brahmaputra basin. Rajiv Gandhi also allowed Nepal to be a part of water sharing thereby sweetening the entire deal. However, domestic constraints prevented the pact from yielding the desired results. The entire period, till end of the Cold War, witnessed a fluctuating relationship between the neighbouring states. The end of the Cold War saw a change in the domestic policy of Bangladesh. The dictator Ershad decided to step down and elections followed in 1991. The BNP won the elections. In 1996, the BNP was replaced by Awami League and the new government concluded a fresh treaty over the river Ganga with India in 1996. Since the end of the Cold War, Indo–Bangladesh relations are primarily driven by the policy orientations of the two parties—the BNP and the Awami League. The BNP has a propensity to incline its polices to favour Pakistan and China while the Awami League favours a partnership with India.
Case Study Anti-India Faultlines The BNP is not favourably disposed to India and has at times stated that it is suspicious of India. In 1991, at the time of of the ousting of Ershad, Khaleda Zia had led a Farakka march to mobilise public support against Indian interference. She succeeded in forming the government in 1991 illustrating the exploitation of antiIndia faultlines in domestic politics.
DEFENCE DIPLOMACY At the defence level, India prefers Bangladesh as a defence market, though, in recent times, Bangladesh has preferred to receive arms imports and defence equipment from the US, Russia and China. It is possible that China is to provide submarines to Bangladesh in future. A unique point for India’s advantage is that Bangladesh is a leading contributor to UN Peace Keeping Mission (UNPKM). This allays India’s fears as the dominant theory is that the more Bangladesh participates in UNPKM, the lesser would be the idle availability of its armed forces to control polity and hence, the lesser would be the chance of Bangladesh becoming an active threat like Pakistan. India firmly supports Bangladesh to evolve fully as a democracy on the lines of Turkey and Indonesia. Both nations have regularly undertaken joint exercises at the army and navy level. In 2013, the nations also signed an extradition treaty. In 2017, during the visit of Shiekh Hasina to India, the two countries have concluded a new defence pact (elaborated later in the chapter).
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Bangladesh is an agrarian economy but has a strong demand for goods and India has emerged as an important trade partner in this context. India provides duty free, quota free access for Bangladeshi exports to India. The trade is tilted in favour of India. India also gives line of credits and loans to Bangladesh and provides developmental aid. In 2012, India provided one billion US dollars in credit to Bangladesh and a further 200 million USD for development of infrastructure. Tata is establishing a three billion USD steel plant in Bangladesh and there are other Indian firms in power generation, linking of power grids, telecom and transport which are setting up presence in Bangladesh. However, India’s steps to integrate Bangladeshi economy with India may be perceived with some suspicious by Bangladesh. It has also steadfastly refused Indian transit to North East which, in reality, might have proved beneficial for both.
LAND BOUNDARY AGREEMENT ISSUE
When India became independent, Sir Radcliffe demarcated the boundary between India and Pakistan as well as India and East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). While dividing the territory in East Pakistan, Radcliffe did not pay attention to small patches of land called ‘enclaves’. These enclaves were, in the pre-independence era, called Chitmahals and they were used by the Raja of Cooch Behar and Maharaja of Rangpur as stakes in the game of chess. After independence, Radcliffe drew a line to divide the territory. Efforts were made by Nehru in 1958 to divide the territories through an agreement with Feroz Khan Noon. As per the agreement, India got the enclave of Dahagram and Angarpota while half of Berubari enclave was to be given to East Pakistan. The origin of the Berubari territory also goes back to the time of Radcliffe. Radcliffe tried to demarcate the boundary on the basis of thanas but he accidently omitted the Berubari number-12 thana. The Nehru–Noon agreement resolved this issue. As the Berubari number-12 thana was within the Jalpaigudi thana, half of it was given to East Pakistan as they laid claims over it. To give effect to the Nehru–Noon agreement 1958, an amendment under article 368 of Indian constitution was made under the 9 Amendment Act of 1960. When Bangladesh was created in 1971, Indira Gandhi decided to resolve the pending disputes with Mujibur Rehman. In 1974, a Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) was designed which clarified the need to exchange 111 Indian enclaves in Bangladesh and 51 Bangladeshi enclaves in India. In these enclaves, citizens were living with no available rights and facilities. On 16 May, 1974, the agreement was signed but was not ratified by India and thereby the exchange under the LBA could not proceed successfully. According to the LBA, Bangladesh was to get Dahagram and Angarpota while India would get the other half of Berubari. th
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Dahagram and Angarpota were to be connected through a corridor called Tin Bigha and India was to lease out the Teen Bigha Corridor to Bangladesh in perpetuity. Due to strong internal resistance, the Indian government was finally only able to grant https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Bangladesh access to the corridor in 1992, and that too, for a limited number of hours per day. Full access to the corridor was finally granted in 2011. In 2006, the Hasina government in Bangladesh assumed power and in 2007 established a consultative mechanism in the area demarcated in the LBA. The people in the consultative mechanism asserted that they would not leave their areas. The rights of the people inhabiting the region of the LBA now came in stark incongruence to the precepts of the LBA which advocated territorial relocations. In 2010, Hasina visited India and in 2011, a Protocol to the LBA was agreed to. As per the protocol, it was decided that status quo was to be maintained in the regions and the wishes of the people would be respected. Thus in 2011, the procedural acceptance was completed on ground and the national exchange was agreed to. Since there was to be no cession of territory, the Indian Parliament ratified the bill in May 2016 and the entire process got completed by June 2016.
MARITIME AND SECURITY ISSUES India–Bangladesh maritime cooperation goes back to 1974. From 1974 to 2009, the two nations have had eight rounds of talks. The failure of Bangladesh to achieve success on negotiations related to New Moore Island in 2009 led Bangladesh to approach the Permanent Court of Arbitration under UNCLOS. The UNCLOS, under Annex-7 of the convention for Delimitation of Maritime Boundary between India and Bangladesh, handed over the case to a five-member arbitration tribunal. The tribunal gave an award on 7 July 2014 and upheld Indian sovereignty over the New Moore islands and enabled India to have access to Haribhanga River. Bangladesh has been granted an additional access to an 19,000 square kilometres Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). India shall continue to hold rights over its continental shelf but Bangladesh is allowed an outlet to the extended continental shelf. Bangladesh also now gets access to open sea and shall no more be a sea locked nation due to overlap of EEZ. th
TEESTA RIVER ISSUE AND RIVER DISPUTES Of the 57 transboundary rivers, Bangladesh shares 54 of them with India. Teesta is the 4 largest river in Bangladesh (after Ganga, Bramhaputra and Meghna). The flood plain of Teesta is 2750 square kilometres in Bangladesh. In 1972, a Joint River Commission was established to share resources of 54 rivers. However, till now the only success is on an agreement related Ganga river signed in 1996 for 30 years for water sharing. A key irritant is the issue related to the river Teesta. River Teesta originates from Kangse glacier in Charamullake in Sikkim and finally drains in the Bay of Bengal. It is the fourth largest river in Bangladesh after Padma, Ganga and Meghna. In 1983, both nations agreed an adhoc agreement where India received 39% of Teesta water while 36% was allocated to Bangladesh. Around 25% water was unallocated. In 2011, an agreement to establish a Joint Hydro Observation Station was evolved which proposed an interim agreement for the next 15 years under which India was to get 42.5% of the Teesta water while Bangladesh was to get 37.5% of water flow during the dry season. The agreement could not be adopted due to opposition by the CM of West Bengal. The issue remains unresolved up to 2017. The key problem relates to a barrage at Gajoldaba in India and another at Dalia in Bangladesh. Using the barrages, both nations draw water for irrigation. The problem arises due to the severe shortage of water in the dry months. Bangladesh has been th
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consistently demanding 50% share of the water. A solution often proposed by hydrological experts is establishing a link canal between Manas–Ganga–Teesta and Sankosh but the issue remains.
ENERGY SECURITY DIPLOMACY In 1997, the Bangladeshi firm Mahana Holdings proposed the idea of supplying gas from Sitwe fields in South Myanmar to India via Bangladesh. In 2005, Bangladesh, Myanmar and India reached an argument that Myanmar would be supplying around 90 tonnes cubic feet gas. However, the Khaleda Zia government backed out of the agreement, citing as its reason, the fact, that India does not allow Bangladesh access to hydropower from Bhutan and Nepal. As the project got stuck, Myanmar signed a deal with China to supply China gas from Kyaukryu port to Ruilli city in Yunan province. Since 2015, with the coming back of Sheikh Hasina to power, the negotiations have begun anew.
RISE OF RADICALISATION IN BANGLADESH The vulnerability of Bangladesh as a centre of terror is not new. Since 9/11, the vulnerability of Bangladesh to terror attacks has increased manifold. Bangladesh is a secular republic. The Islamic NGOs of foreign nations have been promoting Wahhabism in Bangladesh. Pakistan has links with many such NGOs in Bangladesh which it uses to target India. Since 1990, in Bangladesh, religion as a card in politics has been largely used to garner power. There is growing Al-Qaeda and ISIS presence in Bangladesh. In July 2016, during Eid, there were also terror attacks staged by ISIS.
The political compulsion to act against terror is a constraint for the present Bangladeshi government as the opposition uses it as a tool against radical organised religion and ends up creating a possibility of a severe backlash. In Bangladesh, there has been a systematic attempt to target rationalists, atheists and bloggers. The implications of all this are very severe for India. In 2015, in Burdwan in West Bengal, the bombs that were found were purportedly to be used in Bangladesh. For India, it is worrisome as ISIS is at its very doorstep.
Case Study Tipaimukh Dam A joint River Commission in 1978 was established to explore possibility of a dam on Barak river. Due to regular flooding of Barak, a dam was proposed at junction of Mizoram, Assam and Manipur. It was decided to use water for irrigation also. Bangladesh says that the dam will affect water supply downstream and affect flow of water in summers. A 1500 MW dam is proposed where Manipur being the host state will get 15% free electricity.
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BANGLADESH—2015 The Indian PM visited Bangladesh and paid homage to the liberation war memorial. The PM also unveiled a new bus service to enhance bilateral connectivity and inaugurated bus routes from Kolkata–Dhaka–Agartala and Dhaka to Guwahati. The PM also exchanged the Land Boundary Agreement and a list of 22 agreements was agreed upon. An important agreement was signed on the issue of coastal shipping. The merchant vessels of India can now use Chittagong port and Mangla port to ship goods to Bangladesh. To boost cooperation on regional waters, blue economy and maritime cooperation was envisaged. India also extended two billion USD credit for health infrastructure and education to Bangladesh. India has moreover agreed to provide support for construction of additional grids and provide 100 MW electricity from Tripura. To reduce the six billion USD trade deficit, India will establish an Economic Zone in Bangladesh which will export goods to India. Bangladesh has decided to offer SEZs to India at Mangala and Bhermara.
VISIT OF SHIEKH HASINA TO INDIA—2017 Shiekh Hasina paid a state visit to India in April, 2017. During her visit, the two sides reiterated the historical link between the two states. Shiekh Hasina presented citations to the kins of Indian soldiers who lost their lives in the 1971 war. India, under the Muktijoddha scholarship scheme, has decided to extend medical treatment to additional 100 Muktijoddhas of Bangladesh in hospitals in India. The two sides have decided to deepen their bilateral cooperation in defense and connectivity. The two nations have further decided to strengthen defense cooperation to combat terrorism. The two sides will enhance cooperation in prevention of human and drug trafficking and illegal narcotics traded across the border. India has committed to develop Bangladesh by assisting it in skill development, energy, infrastructure and high technology. Neither of the sides could achieve success on the conclusion of Teesta water sharing agreement as of 2017 but have decided to enhance cooperation for its early conclusion. A thrust towards enhancing military to military relationship was laid upon during the visit. The two sides have concluded a defense cooperation framework and to promote strategic studies, an MoU has been concluded between the Defense Services Staff College, Tamil Nadu and the National Defense College, Dhaka. The MoU has been signed between the two states on peaceful use of nuclear energy and outer space. An MoU to jointly regulate border haats has been signed. The two will cooperate in the areas of cyber security, judicial cooperation, earth science research, mass media, audio-visual co-production and passenger traffic. India has extended an additional line of credit to the government of Bangladesh. India will also establish 36 community clinics in Bangladesh. 1
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1. The Bangladesh War of Independence is known as ‘Muktijuddho’ in Bangladesh. The war veterans are known as Muktijoddha.
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5 CHAPTER
India and Myanmar Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical background of diplomacy Defence and security relationship Extremism in Myanmar Rohingya issue Commercial deplomacy Border trade Border Issues Operation Golden Bird Kaladan multi modal transit transport project Analysis of recent visits India’ core interests in Myanmar
DIPLOMATIC HISTORICAL BACKGROUND The most important connecting link between India and Myanmar (previously known as Burma) is Buddhism. In the ancient times, Gautama Buddha sent the two monks, Tapusa and Bhallika, with eight strands of his own hair to promote Buddhism in the Myanmar region. Tapusa and Bhallika built a pagoda in Shwedagon, which is now known as the Shwedagon Zedi Daw. Ashoka, during his reign, also sent missionaries to Burma. The people of Burma, since the ancient times, have been majorly Kshatriyas and their origins can be traced back to India, in the Gangetic valley. The 17th century Pyu dynasty used Indian titles like Hari Vikramaditya and Surya Vikramaditya. In modern times, the British had exiled Bahadur Shah Zafar, the last Mughal Emperor of India, to Yangon in Myanmar and the Konbaung King of Myanmar to Ratnagiri. In 1951, India and Burma established diplomatic relations through a treaty of friendship. Although the bedrock of the relationship is the India–Myanmar Treaty of Friendship signed in 1951, the foundation of the Indo–Myanmar relations was laid down by the visit of Rajiv Gandhi in 1987. After the victory of Ne Win in Burma, he undertook drastic nationalisation which led to lot of discrimination from the Indian diaspora present in Burma. The Indian diaspora in Burma had British origins as Burma is an erstwhile British colony that gained independence in 1948 and the British had taken a large number of Indians to work in Burma as plantation workers. The regime of Ne Win did not boost the Burman economy, plunging the nation into deep economic crisis. In 1988, Ne Win’s resignation led to a referendum on whether or not multi-party democracy needed to be adopted in Myanmar. General Saw Haung took control of Myanmar and established the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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state law and order restoration council (SLOC). In 1990, SLOC announced elections. However, as per the SLOC, the election was to be held only for the purpose of redrafting the Constitution of the Myanmar. In the elections, the National League for Democracy (NLD) won 392 of 485 seats and the rest were won by the National Unity Party (backed by the army). The NLD demanded immediate transfer of power on the basis of popular vote. This led to a confrontation based on the political values of democracy and autocracy. India has always been a supporter of NLD. Subsequently, Aung San Suu Kyi, the founder of NLD, was put under house arrest because of China’s support of SLOC. Post 1992, Myanmar decided to head towards an open economy and joined ASEAN as a member and ended martial law. It also revived its relations with India. Since 1993, Indo–Myanmar relations have prospered. The military backed party is called Union Solidarity and Development Party, or USDP. As India, at the end of the Cold War, announced its Look East Policy, the significance of Myanmar increased. In 2011, Thein Sein took steps to promote democracy. In the same year, Thein Sein visited India while in 2012 Suu Kyi visited India after her release from house arrest. Manmohan Singh also visited Myanmar in 2012 and these visits eventually brought security and developmental diplomacy back on track. In the March 2016 elections, NLD won again and Htin Kyaw became the new President of Myanmar. Myanmar remains extremely important to India for its proximity to Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, Bhutan and India’s North East. It also shares a border with China. The Myanmar territory is used by insurgents for drug trade and narcotics crimes. India had maintained cordial relations with Myanmar despite it being under military rule for a significant time and even today, Myanmar remains a focal point of India’s Act East Policy.
Case Study Act East Policy and Myanmar Myanmar is the most crucial state for India’s Act East Policy. Under the Act East Policy, India has realized the economic potential of boosting up connectivity with Myanmar as it will be a gateway to South East Asia. The importance of Myanmar in the Indian foreign policy can be judged form the fact that India announced the Act East Policy in the territory of Myanmar in 2014 (at the backdrop of 12 IndiaASEAN Summit). Under the Act East Policy India has decided to boost connectivity with Myanmar to leverage the geographical proximity. The connectivity with Myanmar can be a gateway to South East Asia. Taking advantage of 2014 – India – Myanmar MOU on border cooperation and intelligence sharing, India on 9 June 2015 conducted a surgical strike against the insurgent groups. India is also connecting with Myanmar to leverage Buddhism through the Buddhist circuit where India intends to use Buddhism’s cultural heritage to promote tourism and create job. th
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India and Myanmar jointly have to address bottlenecks to ensure implementation of the five themes. The two sides need to immediately push bus and air connectivity. To https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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support the Indian private sector in Myanmar, there needs to be enhanced presence of Indian financial institutions in Myanmar. India and Myanmar should as sub-regional groupings like Mekong-Ganga cooperation, BIMSTEC and BCIM etc. India has decided to leverage its Diaspora to enhance the cooperation in the five themes envisages above.
INDIA–MYANMAR BORDER ISSUES Myanmar and India share both land and maritime borders but since the 1990s, there has also been a growing proximity between China and Myanmar, who also share a land border. Myanmar continues to witness piracy and ethnic crises. Myanmar has focussed its security policy more on ethnic issues and intra-state conflicts than on international issues. Military has dominated Myanmar politics for a long time and has secured legitimacy in Myanmari society. India, on the other hand, began to realise the security significance of Myanmar after it implemented its Look East Policy. The growing presence of China in Myanmar has increased India’s concerns. Myanmar also has proximity to the Andaman and Nicobar islands. China is undertaking port construction in Myanmar. India felt that China would probably encircle India and thus, this fear compelled India to go for security cooperation. In fact, from Myanmar point of view, the deepening of its relations with China compelled it to diversify and it became natural for Myanmar to look towards India to counter the dominating influence exerted by China. In 1994, India and Myanmar signed an MoU on Maintenance and Tranquillity in border areas. Since then, India and Myanmar have been cooperating in the area of counter insurgency. Indian army chiefs regularly interact with their Myanmari counterparts. In 2006, both concluded an MoU on intelligence sharing and training, where India envisages training of Myanmar’s military to boost their military capabilities. Since 2010, they have a mutual Legal Assistance Treaty and in 2012, established a Joint Working Group on terrorism. In 2014, they signed an MoU on border cooperation. India assists Myanmar in building Offshore Patrol Vehicles under Coordination Protocol (CORPAT). Recently, India also carried out a surgical strike on the Indian side of the border to shoot down insurgents operating in the region. The broad contours of our defence engagement include border training, intelligence sharing and the training of Myanmar forces.
EXTREMISM IN MYANMAR AND ROHINGYA ISSUE Since the 19 Century, people from various parts of India migrated to Myanmar. Over a period of time, they became prosperous and asserted their economic strength in the society. The local people of Myanmar were not happy and felt insecure. From 1920s to 1940s, there were violent revolts. During Ne Win’s time, the non-Buddhist people were also targeted. Many of them left Myanmar during Ne Win’s time. th
From Bengal, a lot of Muslims were taken by the Britishers to Burma from 1823 onwards when the British occupied the Rakhine state of Myanmar. After the independence of Burma in 1948, these Muslims stayed back in Burma. Many of them are settled in South West Burma, which is known as the Rakhine area. The Rakhine area is in Arakans. From ‘Rakhine’ a word has originated for these Muslims in Myanmar’s language and the word is Rohangs. These Muslims are therefore called Rohingyas. According to the 1982 Citizenship law of Myanmar, the Rohingyas were not recognized as an official ethnic https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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group and since then have become stateless in Myanmar. In the 1990s, a movement in Myanmar began, which came to be known as the 969 movement. The movement was a brain child of Kyaw Lwin. Under the 969 movement, the government used Lwin’s ideas to win over people by preaching the good practices of Buddhism. In the 2000s, another movement called the 786 movement began. The origin of the 786 movement is in Arabic Abjad numerical system and is inspired from the opening passage of Quran. In Myanmar, 786 usually demarcates an area as belonging to Muslims. The Buddhist began to misinterpret the 786 movement and they began to think that this means that 786 movement aimed to dominate 21 century (7 + 8 + 6 = 21) as the Islamic century. It saw a rise in insecurity of Buddhists manifesting in riots in 2011 in the Sittwe–Rakhine region and the brain behind this ethnic violence was Ashin Wirathu. A widespread belief in the fact that Muslims want to dominate Myanmar spread like wildfire. The rise of the radical and rightist Ashin Wirathu has brought out the face of radical Buddhism. This has led to the mass exodus of Rohingyas to Indonesia and Thailand in 2015. Those who remain are ritually ghettoised and persecuted. India is not a signatory to the UN Refugee Convention of 1951 and thus is not mandated to accept refugees. But, on humanitarian grounds, India has accepted a few Rohingyas. India needs to develop an imaginative diplomacy for the Rohingyas, India needs to ask Myanmar to rehabilitate the Rohingyas as not rehabilitating them is detrimental to Indian security interests. If the Rohingyas get radicalized, they could pose a serious security threat for India, India is contemplating appointment of a special envoy to discuss Rohingya problem with Myanmar. st
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY There has been steady gradual improvement in the trade ties between India and Myanmar. India imports beans, pulses and forest products from Myanmar while it exports steel and pharmaceutical products. Myanmar stands to be the second largest supplier of pulses to India. There is a rising cooperation in the field of IT and plantation products.
The overall quantum of Indian investment is rising in Myanmar. India has steadily increased investment in the oil and gas sectors. There has been a huge presence of Indian companies in Myanmar as well. Tata Motors has established a truck assembly plant in Magway. There is presence of other Indian firms in Myanmar as well.
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At the level of hydrocarbons, India and Myanmar signed a MoU in 2006 on cooperation in the petroleum sector. Since then India’s ONGC Videsh Limited and GAIL have been present in exploration and development activities. India has acquired stakes in Shwe development and production area. Jubilant Energy and Reliance are also working in shallow water blocks in Myanmar. Since 2016, the State Bank of India has been granted a commercial license for banking purposes in Myanmar. On 17 February 2017, the 5 India–Myanmar Joint Trade Committee Meeting was held in Myanmar and efforts were made to intensify the ongoing trade. The two countries announced a new bilateral trade target of 10 billion dollars to be achieved in the next five years. Under the India’s Act East Policy, India and Myanmar have agreed to intensify trade through maritime level and border trade level. The two sides have decided to promote more trade through the MorehTamu post in Manipur–Myanmar border area. The maritime trade is to be strengthened through Kaladan Multilateral Transport Project. th
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In the eighth India–ASEAN Delhi Dialogue, 2016, the two sides also agreed to cooperate on improving connectivity and bilateral trade. At the level of connectivity, the two sides decided to expedite the India–Myanmar–Thailand Highway construction. At the maritime level, the two sides in 2016 concluded a standard operating procedure for Joint Naval Portal. India has clarified that Myanmar is core to India’s Act East Policy and that India is keen to improve connectivity and trade with Myanmar.
Case Study India–Myanmar Border Trade The border trade is different from the trade that is done between countries through air, land or sea. In the trade at air, land or sea, there is involvement of customer clearances. Also, the trade through these three routes involves huge volumes. On the other hand, when it comes to the border trade, the people living on two sides of the international border prepare a list of commodities and undertake overland bilateral exchange. India and Myanmar signed a border trade agreement in 1994 which got operationalised in 1995. As per the agreement, the two sides will undertake border trade through designated check posts.
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Around 1% of the India–Myanmar trade happens through the border. The present duty is 5% for the 40 identified select items traded at the border.
DEFENCE AND SECURITY RELATIONS India and Myanmar have maintained substantive defence relations since 1990s. The security situation has been necessitated by India’s North Eastern states sharing border with Myanmar. The important dimension of the defence relationship is that India has been an important arms supplier to Myanmar. India has supplied T–55 tanks, transport planes and naval crafts to Myanmar, to name just a few. In 2015, the first India–Myanmar Joint Consultative Commission Meeting was held. In the meeting, both sides decided to strengthen security cooperation to tackle rising terrorism and insurgency. The two sides decided to use bilateral Regional Border Committee mechanism to promote border cooperation. In the meeting, India reaffirmed its support to assist Myanmar in the modernisation of its defence forces. A new dimension under India’s Act East Policy is to also assist naval modernisation of Myanmar. One of the key drivers of India-Myanmar defence cooperation has been the insurgency in North Eastern States. India, way back in 1950, had provided Myanmar with six Dakota aircrafts to aid in its fight against insurgency. There are still insurgent groups operating across the borders of the two countries. In 1994, India and Myanmar signed an agreement to maintain peace and tranquillity in the border areas and this facilitated the launch of operation Golden Bird in 1995. Another driver of defence cooperation has been drug smuggling. Myanmar is a part of the Golden Triangle (Myanmar, Thailand and Laos) and has become an important transit country for illegal drug trafficking. In 2010, India and Myanmar established Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty on criminal matters which has emerged as the core legal instrument to address issues related to drug smuggling and gun running. There is active cooperation between the two countries at capacity building level. India has been offering military training to Myanmar.
Case Study The Inside Story of Operation Golden Bird In 1995, in Mizoram along the India–Myanmar border, the 57 Mountain division of the Indian Army carried out the operation Golden Bird. Though it is stated that the operation was jointly carried out by India and Myanmar, in reality, the operation was carried out by the Indian army alone and Myanmar was not involved in the design of the operation. The operation was launched because Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) had provided information that a huge consignment of arms for North Eastern insurgents had reached Cox Bazar (Bangladesh) and was to be sent to insurgents in Manipur. The arms, as per intelligence, were meant for groups in Nagaland and the Isak-Muivah group in Manipur. On 31 March 1995, it was reported that a large number of insurgents had entered into Mizoram. Mizoram, being a peaceful state, had lesser presence of forces. Forces were deployed for counter st
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insurgency in the states of Manipur and Nagaland. In the initial phase of the operation, troops were air dropped into Mizoram from Manipur and Nagaland. Radio sets and other technological instruments were used to intercept the insurgents’ messages. On 5 April 1995, the insurgents crossed over to Myanmar and started using porters to carry loads of material. The Indian troops began a hot pursuit of the insurgents. This led to the Indian troops capture an insurgent named Hathi Barvah. Hathi was trained by the Pakistani 151 near Karachi. Hathi provided valuable information about insurgent route, ammunition, and so forth on interrogation. In May 1995, after deployment of forces, the operations were carried out and finally by 21 May 1995, the operation was officially called off. th
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Another key driver of defence cooperation is maritime security. As India undertakes oil exploration in Myanmar, maritime cooperation has emerged as a new dimension. As Myanmar faces piracy and illegal fishing problems, India has been providing training to Myanmar’s forces and especially navy. Nagas have been living in the North East since time immemorial. In 1935, Myanmar was created as a separate state. It got decolonised in 1947. After the decolonisation of Myanmar, new boundaries were created with India. This led to a division between India and Myanmar and affected the Nagas, who became ethnic minorities on both sides. To resolve the issue, the governments of both countries decided to establish a free movement regime (FMR) which could allow Nagas greater interaction either side of the border. As per the FMR, the Nagas can travel 16 km across either side of the border without a visa. This FMR facilitated interaction between Konyaks, Khiamniungans and Yimchungar Nagas living in Eastern districts of Nagaland. Not only does regular movement happen due to the FMR but children from NSAZ come to the Indian side to study as well. In the recent times, the Myanmar side has started erecting a fence along the border. The locals believe that Myanmar is doing so in concurrence with Indian authorities. The Indian side has clarified that the fence is on the side of Myanmar and not India and a fence on the Indian side will be created only if locals approve. The creation of the fence has angered the locals as they feel this fence would restrict their movements. Security agencies have found that locals and Nagas moving across the borders do pose security threats as they have been found carrying drugs and smuggling arms at times.
RECENT BILATERAL VISITS In January 2015, the Vice President of Myanmar, Dr Sai Mauk Kham, paid a visit to India. The two sides affirmed commitment to strengthen economic ties between the countries. This visit was followed by the visit of U Wunna Haung Lwin, the minister of Foreign Affairs of Myanmar, to India in June, 2015. In August 2016, the President of Myanmar, U Htin Kyaw, visited India. In October 2016, the State Counsellor of Myanmar, Aun San Suu Kyi, paid a state visit to India. She participated in the BRICS–BIMSTEC outreach Summit in Goa on 16 October, 2016. During her visit, India affirmed its commitment to support the economic and social development of Myanmar. India has decided to support cooperation in identified areas. 1
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Both sides identified new areas of cooperation which include construction of LPG terminals, railway cooperation and petroleum cooperation. The two sides decided to finalise a proposal for the establishment of varietal development and seed production centre on pulses. India has decided to support a pilot project on LED based lighting. In Myanmar, new areas of cooperation identified are police training and cyber security. India will now also provide training to diplomats of Myanmar and assist in diplomacy training. Multiple MoUs to establish insurance institutes, power sectors and undertake banking supervision, were signed.
ANALYSIS OF INDIAN PM’S VISIT TO MYANMAR On 11 November 2014, the India PM visited Myanmar to take part in 12 India–ASEAN Summit where he unveiled the Act East Policy. A lot of measures to boost connectivity with Myanmar were announced. In 2016, a motor vehicle agreement was concluded for Thailand–Myanmar–India roadways. Trial runs have been undertaken from Imphal to Mandalay and on the Myanmar–Bangkok road. As of November 2016, the agreement to establish connectivity from Moreh to Mae Sot was due to be signed. th
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Case Study Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project The detailed project report was prepared in 2003 and a framework was agreed upon in 2008. The project is expected to be operational for shipment from 2017. It was conceived as an idea to have multi modal transit transport for shipments from ports on India’s east coast and North East through Myanmar. The project aimed to develop North East economy and integrate India’s North East to South East Asia. Through this, North East would be open to sea connectivity. It is a combination of rail, road and river transport. In October 2015, the cabinet approved `2400 cores for the project. There are no land acquisition issues or environmental concerns, but security threats from insurgents and cost overrun are recurring issues. It will connect Kolkata to Sittwe by sea; from Sittwe to Paletwa by river transport and then a highway to Zorinpuri, Mizoram. The project will boost employment and will lower the food prices in the region but the intrusion into the region will create a threat to local heritage.
Analysis of Htin Kyaw’s visit to India, August, 2016 During his visit, he went to both Agra and Bodh Gaya. India expressed interest to support the experience of diacritic institutions with Myanmar. There were discussions on border https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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and maritime security and discussions were also undertaken on important issues like agriculture, connectivity and industrial training. India has committed to upgrade the Yangon Children’s Hospital and Sittwe General Hospital and provide modern medical equipments. India will help Myanmar in IT skills and vocational training. Myanmar has agreed to give license to the State Bank of India to expand operations in their country. Myanmar agreed to supply pulses to India through a special contract. Immigration facilities to promote people contacts at Tamu–Moreh and Rhi–Zowk hathar border were agreed upon. An MoU was signed concerning bridge construction, the Kalewa–Yagyi road, renewable energy and traditional medicines.
ANALYSIS OF THE PM VISIT TO MYANMAR—2017 The Indian PM visited Myanmar in September 2017. During the visit, the PM has committed support for overall development of Myanmar in multiple projects as below:1. Financial assistance for Kalaldan project. 2. Repair of Tamu-Kalewa road 3. Construction of Kalewa- Yargyi corridor. 4. Construction of Rhi-Tiddim road. The Indian PM also announced various capacity building initiatives ranging from English language skill, industrial skill training and a program for cultural interaction. India announced developmental assistance for Rakhine State Development Program. In all, 11 MoU’s were concluded which included agreements on India providing police training, IT training, skill training and health cooperation. India also signed a Maritime Security Agreement with Myanmar. Under the agreement, India and Myanmar will be sharing data related to non classified merchant ships with each other. India will also provide coastal surveillance system to Myanmar. In September 2017, the Rohingya extremist group Harakah-al-Yaqin (HaY) started targeting military posts in the Rakhine state in Myanmar. According to R&AW, ISI of Pakistan has penetrated into the cadres of the HaY and uses these groups to create unrest in the region. R&AW has found that ISI used the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and HaY to mastermind the recent attacks on military posts in the Rakhine state just prior to the visit of Indian PM to Myanmar. The leader of ARSA is Hafiz Tohar who is an asset of the ISI. Tohar has created Aqa Mul Mujahedeen (AMM) which has been trained by the Lashkar group. Brigadier Ashfaq and Major Salamat of ISI been training ARSA and HaY in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh. During the Indian PM visit to Myanmar, the two sides signed an Anti-Terror Pact and decided to broaden the bilateral security partnership. As the HaY and ARSA unleashed violence, Myanmar army retaliated by carrying out counter operations. These counter operations by the army of Myanmar led to exodus of the Rohingya Muslims to Bangladesh. There are around 10 Lakh Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar and around 40,000 in India. The Indian government has decided to deport the Rohingya Muslims as they have immigrated to India illegally. These illegal immigrants, living majorly in Kashmir, are susceptible to recruitment by terrorist groups and thus constitute a security threat to India. The influx of Rohingya Muslims to India also disturbs the demographic pattern and social, political and cultural stability of the society. India is not a signatory to 1957 UN Refugee Convention and nor to the 1967 Protocol, but, the Indian government on case to case basis accepts asylum in India. If Indian government https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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permits a seeker with asylum in India, the person in concern is provided with a Long Term Visa (LTV). The LTV is renewed annually and allows a holder to work in private sector in India along with access to education and basic banking services. UN has urged India to follow customary law while trying o deport Rohingya. As in Myanmar, Rohingya Muslims are stateless, under the customary law, the principle of non- refoulement is applied where refugees cannot be returned forcibly to a place where there is a threat to their life or freedom. The Indian government has legal right to deport immigrants who may pose a security threat. Though selective targeting of Rohingya Muslims may be morally incorrect but places no legal limitations on the government.
FINAL ANALYSIS Myanmar is the only South East Asian state bordering India. Historically, both were are part of the colonial empire established by the British. From the Indian Foreign policy makers’ point of view, Myanmar is a nearneighbour whom India considers to be well within its area of interest. India has been quite uncomfortable with rising Chinese forays into Myanmar. India certainly wants to delimit Chinese assertion in Myanmar as it constitutes Myanmar to be region of the Indian spear of influence. India asserts this because it supported democracy in Myanmar since the 1980s. However, to lay down a foundation for political reform, India, since the beginning of 21 century, had to support the Military Junta. Burmese scholars believe that the reason India became unsuccessful in challenging rising Chinese influence in Myanmar was its support to the Junta. The scholars also believe that when India began to support the Junta, it began to lose goodwill amongst the Burmese population. st
At present, India’s influence is missing in the two camps of Myanmar—one camp that supports democracy and that which is supported by not only the ethnic minorities of Myanmar but also the USA, Japan and South Korea; while other camp is dominated by China and Tatmadaur or the Myanmar military. Though India has favoured the democracy camp, the views of the reformists hardly match with India. Drug trafficking across the borders is viewed by the reformists as a source of income, but perceived as major threat by India. India and Burma gained independence simultaneously (within six months of each other), and initially, the two sides developed proximity when India proposed nonalignment. But gradually, as the military began to assume control in Myanmar, the two sides began to drift apart. The drift was aggravated by the issue of the Çhettiyar community in 1988. In 1988, the ‘8888 revolt’ started in Burma. (It began on 8-8-1988 and is hence called 8888). The revolt was led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Suu Kyi fought for democracy and won the election in Myanmar, but the military junta rejected the polls and launched massive crackdown on the activists. India, in 1992, condemned the human rights violations in Myanmar by supporting the UN resolution. In the 1990s, when the Look East policy was announced, India neglected Myanmar and prioritised engagement with the Asian tigers. In 1998, the Vajpayee government downplayed all support to the reformists, branding it as an international issue that could only be dealt with by Myanmar. It began to offer the arms deals to the Junta, and the support to the Junta continued subsequently by the UPA government. In 2007, in Myanmar, the democratic protests under the Saffron revolution were crack down by the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Junta. In 2010, India hosted Than Shwe for a state visit and offered monitory assistance to Myanmar. In 2011, during the visit of Thein Sein to India, India extended $500 million line of credit to the country. Whenever a bilateral visit was undertaken, there were fresh talks about connectivity. However, this remained merely rhetorical. Since the British times, owing to logistical difficulties, the Indo–Myanmar region lacked road and rail infrastructure, and supported a tough terrain, inhabited by insurgents on both sides. Since 2011, the coming of Thein Sein government has initiated a policy of global engagement. This will be beneficial for India as the Chinese influence in Myanmar will gradually diminish as Myanmar searches for new friends. India, since 2011, has decided to take this new opportunity to rebuild ties. India is now establishing physical connectivity as part of its Act East policy. India now recognises that Myanmar is a bridge to South East Asia.
Since 2011, after the coming of Thein Sein to power, the West has improved its relationship with Myanmar. However, the Chinese continued to enhance their strategic presence in Myanmar and use its presence to increase their reach in the Indian Ocean. However by early 2000s, Myanmar realised that its engagement with China had become so deep that it had reached a dangerous level and Myanmar needed to break the ice with the West. Since the coming of Thein Sein, Myanmar began to emerge as new darling of the western states. As Myanmar decided to lessen its dependence on China, it began to open up to Singapore, India, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia. The USA too has opened up to Myanmar, as it knows that a deeper engagement with Myanmar favours USA in its attempt to keep the rise of China in check. The Chinese, on the other hand, began to support the United DWA state army (UWSA). The UWSA has been getting arms and ammunition from China to fight the Myanmar government. The future depends on how Myanmar and the USA shall evolve and strengthen their relationship and whether USA will provide military and defence supplies to Myanmar to counter China. After the 1962 Sino–India conflict, the Chinese have supported Mizo and Naga rebels and has even provided them training to keep India under check. Till the rule of Mao lasted in China, the rebels received direct support from the Chinese state. India has, in 2015, concluded a peace deal with NSCN-IM group. In 2015, India resorted to a surgical strike on the Indian side of the Indo–Myanmar border and targeted the insurgent NSCN-K group. As things started to normalise between India and Myanmar, India decided to augment connectivity with Myanmar. The India–Myanmar–Thailand Highway shall be the next game changer. 1. BRICS countries consist of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. BIMSTEC is the acronym used for the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation.
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6 CHAPTER
India and Sri Lanka Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical relations during Cold War Relations since the end of the Cold War Defence diplomacy Commercial diplomacy Role of state parties in Indo-Sri Lanka Relations Kachchatheevu Island Issue 13th Amendenent Issue Indian diplomacy and UNHRC Issue Fishermen problem Recent bilateral visits.
HISTORICAL RELATIONS UP TO COLD WAR The relations go back to the times of the advent of Buddhism. Buddhism as a movement spread over Sri Lanka some 2000 years ago. The earliest mention of Sri Lanka dates back to the time of the Ramayana. Ravana, the king of Lanka, who held Sita captive in Lanka, was rescued by Ram with the help of Hanuman, who was in a way India’s first diplomat, and who built the Adams Bridge to help Ram reach Lanka. The north and north east region of Lanka has been economically integrated to India. The native people of Sri Lanka (then Ceylon) were colonially under the British, but were not a part of British India Empire, being administered separately. From the 1830s onwards, British acquired indentured labour from India, especially from Tamil Nadu, to Ceylon. The Tamils who were transported by the British settled in the northern part of Ceylon. The northern region was relatively dry and lacked resources. The British used a well-planned policy of sending out missionaries to the northern part where the Tamils were residing. The Tamils were a mixture of Buddhists, Muslims, Hindus and Christians. They look advantage of the missionary education provided by the British. They sent their children in Ceylon to schools and later on these children contributed to the education system started of the British. India became independent in 1947 while Ceylon in 1948. Ceylon was renamed as Sri Lanka in 1972, and later, in 1978, was officially named the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka. As an autonomous federation, based on mutual defence alignment with the British, Sri Lanka signed a defence treaty with Britain and the British continued using Ceylon for naval and air activity. The idea of a mutual defence federation with India did not go well with Ceylon as it perceived the Indian foreign policy as an expansionist one. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Case Study Rise of Suspicion of Ceylon and Indian Policy When India advocated the idea of a federation based on a mutual defence agreement with India, Ceylon became extremely suspicious of India. India, time and again, did try to convey to Ceylon that it had no expansionist agenda and acknowledged its respect for Ceylon’s independence and sovereignty. India, for that matter, had not interfered or reacted in 1963 when China and Ceylon signed a maritime agreement for commercial trade. India also refrained from objecting when Colombo was used by Pakistan as a refuelling hub to reach Dhaka in the 1971 war. As previously mentioned, the British took Indian Tamils to Ceylon to work as plantation workers. After Ceylon became independent, the Sinhalese government discriminated against Tamils, thereby deepening the void in Indo–Ceylon relations. During Nehru, no attempt was made to bring any Tamils back as, for generations, these Tamils had lived in Ceylon and were more citizens of that state than of India. Ceylon, on the other hand, devised a mechanism to make it tough for Tamils to acquire state citizenship. They also wanted to ensure they put an end to Tamil dominance in public services. Due to the British missionary work, the children of the Tamils grew up to hold positions in Ceylon’s administrative departments. Post-independence, through the Sinhalese language barrier, they made it tough for Tamil administrators. However, in 1964, there was a Shastri–Sirimavo pact that was signed whereby Ceylon agreed to give three lakh Indian Tamils in Ceylon citizenship and India also agreed to repatriate a sizeable number to India. However, the matter of repatriation did not complete till 1988. In 1975, Sirimavo Bandaranaike had imposed emergency in Sri Lanka while in 1977 this was done by Indira Gandhi in India.
Jayewardene JR, who succeeded Sirimavo Bandaranaike, did not promote Indo–Sri Lanka relations despite his coming to India for a state visit after being elected. Jayewardene continued to marginalise Tamils and Tamil subjugation continued unabated in Sri Lanka. Jayewardene tilted the foreign policy of Sri Lanka towards the US.
After the 1971 Indo–Pak war, Indian allegiance shifted towards the USSR as Sri Lanka gradually drifted towards the US. Jayewardene advanced a liberal and open economy and positioned Sri Lanka westward. Jayewardene not only allowed deeper presence of US firms in Lanka but granted refuelling permit for the nuclear powered US aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk. The situation especially deteriorated in 1977 and 1981 due to Tamil riots. The ruling party of Tamil Nadu, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIDMK) was an ally of the Congress Party at the centre, and Indira Gandhi, in 1981, warned Jayewardene that India would not tolerate the persecution meted out to https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Tamils and advocated him to be cautious. Post 1980, India adopted a very delicate policy. It is widely alleged by scholars and theorists that India used the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) to train Tamil rebels in Sri Lanka. The aim was to use Tamil rebels to destabilise the Jayewardene regime and also while also ensuring that the Tamil rebels do not succeed in creating a separate state. The R&AW supported Tamil Eelam Liberation organisation. It was in 1976 that the Liberation of Tamil Tigers Eelam (LTTE), a separatist and insurgent militant force, was formed by V Prabhakaran. The LTTE witnessed the R&AW’s support Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO) and began to seek support from Tamil political leaders in Tamil Nadu. As the R&AW had gradually succeeded in destabilising the Sri Lankan government, it slowly stopped supporting the rebels. But by this time, the LTTE had emerged as a powerful force and began to assert itself as the sole representative of Tamils in Sri Lanka. When Indira Gandhi died, Jayewardene took the help of Pakistan and the US to get Sri Lankan forces trained to counter the LTTE rebels. This move on the part of Sri Lanka was not well-received by India. In 1987, Jayewardene formally requested India to oppose any kind of military intervention by the LTTE in Sri Lanka but India failed to act on behalf of the Sri Lankan government in any positive way. Sri Lanka launched an operation where the Indian Air Force airdropped food and other essentials to Tamils. India–Sri Lanka Accord (ISLA) had been signed on 29 July 1987, which assigned a certain amount of autonomy to Tamil areas with Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF) controlling the regional council and called for the Tamil militant groups to lay down their arms. As per ISLA, the LTTE was to give up their weapons to the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) and Sri Lanka was to accommodate the Tamils and go for devolution.
Case Study India and Sri Lanka Accord-30 Years The India-Sri Lanka Accord (ISLA) was an attempt to conclude the ethnic war of Sri Lanka through constitutional and political means. The basic idea of Rajiv Gandhi while concluding the Accord was that the ISLA would provide India an opportunity to shape the post war political trajectory of Sri Lanka. The ISLA had two goals. Firstly, the idea was to persuade the conflicting ethnic groups to join mainstream politics and secondly, seek political devolution in Sri Lanka by altering the constitution of the state to get autonomy for the Tamil community. The ISLA was rejected by the LTTE and it resorted to violence against India and Sri Lanka both and continued till 2009. The Sri Lankan government in 1987, through the 13th Amendment, resorted to https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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the devolution of power by creating Provincial Councils. Though the 13th Amendment was rejected by the LTTE, it did restructure the contemporary political situation of the post-colonial Sri Lanka. Though the Councils have been created, but an analysis of the present state of the councils prove that they have become an extension of the ruling political party in power at the Centre. Corruption and patronage politics has slid the councils into complete decay and institutional paralysis. As the ISLA was executed, a large number of LTTE cadres avoided surrendering weapons to the IPKF and consumed cyanide. Many even began to fight the IPKF. The violence unleashed post the ISLA in Sri Lanka created renewed tensions in the minds of Sinhalese who began to perceive India’s role as an undue interference in Sinhalese internal affairs that was not in Sri Lanka’s best interests. The Indian government increased the IPKF numbers from 6,000 to one lakh and justified the raise by citing national security reasons. In 1987, the Sri Lankan Parliament also passed the 13 amendment act to the 1978 Sri Lankan Constitution and began the devolution of powers. The Provincial Councils Act No. 42 of 1987, establishing provincial councils. On September 2 and 8, 1988, President Jayewardene issued proclamations enabling the Northern and Eastern provinces to be one administrative unit administered by one elected Council. In 1988, elections were organised in North East Provincial Councils (NEPC) and A V Perumal of Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF) won the elections, becoming the first Chief Minister of the North Eastern Provincial Council. th
In 1988, when the elections were held in Sri Lanka, both the political parties led by Jayewardene and Sirimavo Bandaranaike demanded the withdrawal of IPKF. India insisted that the IPKF had not been sent unilaterally by India but was the outcome of the peace accord signed in 1987. In 1989, as the election results came out in Sri Lanka, Jayewardene was replaced by Ranasinghe Premadasa, who immediately demanded the withdrawal of the IPKF from Sri Lankan territory. As elections were due in India in November 1989, Rajiv Gandhi agreed to the recall of the IPKF to contain the situation with Sri Lanka. In fact, it is widely alleged that Ranasinghe covertly began to support the LTTE with an intention that the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE both would collaboratively drive out the IPKF. India, under Rajiv Gandhi, linked the IPKF’s withdrawal to the implementation of the 13 Amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka that granted councils in Tamil regions. In November 1989, in the Indian elections, V P Singh won and in March 1990, it ended the IPKF mission and delinked the IPKF’s withdrawal from the 13 amendment. The IPKF was recalled to India and the entire idea of NEPC devolution collapsed. In May, 1991, the LTTE assassinated Rajiv Gandhi and then was subsequently designated as a terrorist organisation. After the death of Rajiv Gandhi, many Tamil groups also began to stop supporting the LTTE. As India realised the failure of its mission, it also felt the need to go for a fresh look at India’s Sri Lanka policy. th
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INDIA–SRI LANKA TIES IN THE POST-COLD WAR PERIOD As the Cold War ended, India opened up its economy and gave itself a fresh outlook to explore relations with the outside world. This did impact our perception of Sri Lanka. Even the subsequent heads of state of Sri Lanka, namely, Kumaratunga and Wickremesinghe, took steps to improve relations. In 1998, India–Sri Lanka Free Trade https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Agreement was signed. From 2000 till 2003, India, encouraged dialogue and ceasefire between Sri Lanka and the LTTE, without being formally involved in the process. In 2003, the LTTE backed out of the dialogue with the government and in 2004, it suffered a split. A majority faction, led by V Muralidharan, opted out to cooperate with the government. In the 2003–04 Sri Lankan elections, Mahinda Rajapaksa got elected to power and decided to follow a hard-line approach towards LTTE. Rajapaksa became President in November 2005. The period from 2005 to 2006 saw civil unrest in Lanka and the unrest reached its peak when as assassination attempt was made on Sarath Fonseka, the Sri Lankan army chief. The government of Rajapaksa increased the military backlash and launched Eelam war–IV from 2006 to 2009. Prabhakaran, the most prominent leader of the LTTE, was killed in 2007 and by May 2009, the LTTE was wiped out. During the Eelam war–IV, as India stayed out, Sri Lanka developed proximity with Pakistan and China.
Th post-LTTE period witnessed rising concern on the part of India as Pakistani pilots supplied training and ornament to Sri Lanka. Arms were also provided by China, along with substantial economic aid. China was granted access to the Hambantota port, which India had earlier declined to develop citing financial reasons. This has increased Indian fears as the possibility of a civilian–military nexus in Sri Lanka could endanger Indian security. The major focus of India now is to ensure that Pakistan and China don’t use Sri Lanka against India.
Case Study Motivation behind India–Sri Lanka Policy? India has always followed the logic of national unity being the foundation of internal and external security. This it is a key driver behind India’s Sri Lanka policy. It has always felt that if there is a revival of separatist demands in Sri Lanka, it would have a spillover effect in India. Ironically, way back in 1963, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) had advocated for the secession of Tamil Nadu, but did not take up the issue after 1963. India has always followed the policy that positive nation building can always lead to greater nation unity and this may happen only if inclusive policies are followed. Sri Lanka, however, since its inception, has been driven by Sinhalese majority policy, which was instrumental in creating alienation in the minds of the Tamils residing in Sri Lanka. For India, an imbalance in state building could https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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consequently have an external fallout and could disturb the strategic-cum-economic balance of India. Hence, India had advocated the inclusion of Tamils in the nation building process of Sri Lanka since ISLA, as the psychological unity with Sri Lanka could have proven to be beneficial for the long term national security of India itself.
ROLE OF STATE PARTIES IN INDIA–SRI LANKA RELATIONS Any discussion of India–Sri Lanka relations obviously needs a mention of role of political parties of Tamil Nadu. We also need to understand, however, that while the influence of the DMK and the AIDMK has been detected in India’s attitude to the Tamil Eelam question, their instigation was not the sole deciding factor of our policy. The main reason of influence in the past has been the presence of Tamil Nadu based parties as part of the coalition at the centre. When Rajiv Gandhi had gone to Sri Lanka to sign the ISLA in 1987, he had even taken DMK and AIDMK into confidence despite such concurrence not being mandated constitutionally. This is not the case now with the new government in the centre since 2014. After Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination in 1991, when the Congress government came back to power, the AIDMK supported Congress and in 1992, when it moved to ban the LTTE, the AIDMK was not only supportive of the demand but actively helped the process. In UPA-1 (2004–2009) government, the DMK was a supporter of the Congress Party and advocated a hands-off approach. In 2006, India accepted the DMK’s Sri Lanka policy as what the Government of India’s Sri Lanka policy should be in case of the Eelam war–IV. When in 2008, the LTTE were almost about to be crushed, the DMK began to threaten quitting the alliance if the Indian government took no steps to stop the Elam war–IV but ultimately refrained from anything beyond rhetoric. Post the Rajiv Gandhi assassination, none of the Tamil parties ever took a pro-LTTE stand ever again.
DEFENCE DIPLOMACY The defence relations between the two have not evolved deeply and are mired since 1990s. However, in recent times, cooperation has begun in the areas of maritime security and joint training. India has been training Sri Lankan officials at the Defence University of India and is constantly undertaking intelligence sharing. In fact, intelligence sharing has been a key area of cooperation since the Eelam War–IV. Indian Navy has regularly shared naval intelligence with the Lankan navy and the Coast guards of the two nations regularly cooperate. However, India does not supply any major arms to Lanka and has limited this defence cooperation to the use of defensive and non-lethal equipments and tactics.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY The economic relations between the two countries have opened up only since the end of the Cold War. Sri Lanka was, as a matter of fact, the first South Asian economy to go for liberalisation way back in 1978. By the end of the Cold War, trade began to increase with India as India liberalised its economy. Sri Lanka also perceives India as a potential for FDI https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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supplier. There has been, moreover, a steady flow of tourists from India. The trade has gradually shifted in favour of India as Sri Lankan exports to India are lesser than their imports. Both have tried to rectify trade practices through a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). India and Sri Lanka signed the FTA in 1998, which finally became operational in 2001. The India–Sri Lanka FTA gives duty free preferential access to each other’s goods in a time-bound manner. India exports petro products, pharmaceuticals, two wheelers and vegetables while importing rubber products, spices and electric wires. Indian firms operational in Sri Lanka include Tata, Jet Airways, Ashoka Leyland, Ceat, Apollo, and so forth. In 2003, a joint working group was established for a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA). This was done to enhance the FTA and envisage the promotion of cooperation in the service sector. India is also undertaking development of the Trincomalee port as this will boost its strategic presence vis-à-vis Sri Lanka. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is planning that a six million tonne per annum Grandfield refinery be established in Sri Lanka through direct investment. At present, Sri Lanka has only one 2.5 million tonne refinery.
Case Study India–Sri Lanka CEPA India envisages services based cooperation in CEPA. However, Sri Lanka has had expressed some reservations, it hopes for more economic and technical cooperation rather than increased movement of Indian professionals in Sri Lanka as expressed in the CEPA. Sri Lanka favours an Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) over the CEPA. In the CEPA, India had decided to open up 80 sectors for Sri Lanka and advised that Sri Lanka open up IT and marine ship building sectors. As the proposed CEPA would liberalise investment and trade in services, goods and facilitate movement of people, Sri Lanka feared that Indian firms may ultimately come to dominate the Lankan economic space and might eventually lead to loss of jobs for the Sri Lankan native population. The movement of people’s clause is highly resented by Sri Lanka. In 2015, Maithripala Sirisena took office as the new President of Sri Lanka and has revived the talks for a CEPA and has assured Sri Lankan industrialists that no negative impact on the Lankan economy would be occasioned by said arrangement.
KACHCHATHEEVU ISLAND ISSUE Kachchatheevu is a small island located about 10 miles north east of Rameshwaram. The fishermen used it to dry their nets and catch fish. It has been a part of Raja of Ramnand’s territory who was controlling it as the lead zamindar. When the Zamindari system was abolished, Kachchatheevu became a part of the Presidency of Madras. When India became independent and initiated a boundary negotiation at the maritime level with Sri Lanka, Kachchatheevu was a disputed territory between Ceylon and the British and there was never an agreement on boundary ever. In 1947 and 1976, as per agreements, the issue was bilaterally resolved between India and Sri Lanka, and the resultant maritime agreement has allowed Indians to visit Kachchatheevu for pilgrimage for which no visa is required. The Indian government has maintained that the right of access to Kachchatheevu does not https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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cover any fishing rights. In 2008, the AIDMK filed a petition in the Supreme Court (SC) asking that the SC declare the 1974 and 1976 agreements as unconstitutional. The Indian government produced the facts in the highest court and clarified the issue of Kachchatheevu, stating that the island has not been ceded. Consequently, the AIDMK’s petition was disposed of by the court.
THE 13th AMENDMENT ISSUE After the defeat of the LTTE, Sri Lanka has announced the execution of the 13 Plus Amendment act where the idea is to devolve more powers to its provinces. The members of Provincial Councils have consistently complained about their dependence on the central government of Sri Lanka for finances, with no powers to the highly restricted Provincial Councils to raise finances. th
After the defeat of the LTTE, Rajapaksa began talks on the 13 Plus. The idea propounded was to devolve powers, which till then, had not been undertaken due to LTTE opposition. In 2013, a Parliament select committee met to discuss devolution but this time, land rights and police powers were not devolved. Even today, the 13 Amendment has not been implemented with full force. In fact, the 18 Amendment of the Sri Lankan Constitution had given more powers to the Sri Lankan President without an adequate system of checks and balances. However, the 19 Amendment in 2015, has rectified the issue and checks and balances have now been ensured. India has stayed away from reacting to both the 18 and 19 Amendments as they fell within the ambit of internal matters of Sri Lanka. th
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The basic issue is the reluctance of Sri Lanka to devolve policing powers fearing that active insurgent sleeper cells need centralised control.
INDIAN DIPLOMACY AND UNHRC ISSUE After the killing of Prabhakaran in 2009, the Sri Lankan government articulated the need to work with Tamils and other civilians for rehabilitation. But as its commitments were not fulfilled, the matter was taken to UN Human Rights Commission (UNHRC). India voted in favour of a UNHRC resolution that urged Sri Lanka to rehabilitate Tamils. The Sri Lankan government was given three years to fulfil its commitments. In 2012, the Sri https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Lankan government established a lessons learned and rehabilitation commission (LLRC) to investigate war crimes. It ended up giving a clean chit to its officials stating that human right violations perpetrated by the Sri Lankan government were rare. The international community was in favour of an international enquiry in the matter of human rights violation. India voted in favour of the resolution but later, the demand for an international enquiry was no longer adopted. In 2013, the UNHRC stated that Sri Lanka should execute the recommendations of LLRC at the earliest. India also favoured this resolution and advocated the implementation of the 13 Amendment Act. In both 2012 and 2013, the resolutions that India voted in favour of in the UNHRC hearing, were literally resolutions against Sri Lanka. However, due to the persistent lack of commitment by Sri Lanka, in 2014, the UNHRC adopted a resolution advocating an international investigation into the human rights violations by the Lankan army from 2002 to 2009. In this resolution, India abstained from voting by stating that the nature of the suggested international enquiry is extremely intrusive and India does not favour country-specific resolutions as they violate sovereignty of a country. th
FISHERMEN ISSUE After the independence of both nations, fishing has become an important economic activity. Due to a large common area between the two in the sea, the two have often had issues of fishermen straying into each other’s waters. In the last few decades, fish and aquatic life in the Indian continental shelf has depleted. As a result, more fishermen enter Sri Lankan waters and also resort to the use of modern fishing trolleys which Lankan fishermen are unable to match. The Indian fishermen saw a golden business opportunity during the LTTE era as the Sri Lankan government had disallowed the easy movement of Sri Lankan fishermen in waters owing to military operations. However, with the LTTE war over, since 2010, there is a resurgence of Sri Lankan fishermen in Palk Bay. They were trying to reclaim their legitimate lost base and, in the process, became engaged in conflict. In order to solve the issue, understanding the importance of ocean economy becomes significant. The department of ocean development and ministry of agriculture have to ensure assistance to the states so that fishermen are able to find alternative livelihood to fishing in Palk Bay. The Indian government has renewed the thrust on ocean economy in recent times with the PM signing MoU on ocean economy with Sri Lanka, Mauritius and Maldives in 2015. In recent times, the matter has reached the highest levels when Sirisena, in his February 2015 visit to India, raised the issue with the Indian PM. There is an immediate need to sign a protocol for joint patrolling.
ANALYSIS OF PM VISIT TO SRI LANKA—MARCH, 2015 AND MAY, 2017 The Indian PM Narendra Modi undertook the first standalone visit to Sri Lanka since 1987. The PM visited the Muhabadi society and interacted with Buddhist monks. He addressed the business community and focused on investment in infrastructure, energy, manufacturing and tourism. He visited Anuradhapura and Jaffna and handed over homes at Ilavali North West housing project to people. He flagged off Talaimannar–Madhu road train—a reconstruction of the Northern Province railway line. Economic ties saw resurgence. India proposed that Trincomalee be established as a petro hub and NTPC commence work on a 500 MW coal power plant. A joint task force on ocean economy was https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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planned. A decision to establish a Ramayana trail in Sri Lanka and a Buddha Circuit in India was made. Provisions for visa on arrival were taken up. Assistance of a 318-milliondollar line of credit for railways, establishment of Tagore Auditorium at Ruhuna University and 1.5 billion dollars currency swaps were planned. The two concluded an agreement on civilian nuclear cooperation and agreed to adopt a humanitarian approach to the fishermen’s issue and expand defence cooperation in trilateral format with Maldives. In May 2017, the Indian PM again visited Sri Lanka as a chief guest for the first ever International Vesak Day celebrations in Colombo. Vesak is sacred for Buddhists and Sri Lanka has consistently worked hard at the UN level to get Vesak Day accepted there.
Visit of Sri Lankan PM, Ranil Wickremesinghe to India, 2017 In April, 2017, the Sri Lankan PM, Ranil Wickremesinghe visited India. This was his third visit to India since 2015. During the visit, the two sides concluded MoUs on economic and developmental projects. The two sides have identified three sectors of long-term economic collaborations in energy, infrastructure and special economic zones. In the recent times, India’s Sri Lanka policy is driven less by political concerns and more by economic and security issues. The major ministries of India which are executing core projects have started delivering results. During the visit, India had decided to create infrastructure and develop the oil storage facility near Trincomalee which had never been developed and had been lying idle since World War–II. In order to keep China in check, India has focussed its energies upon delivering results in Trincomalee. Though the economic thrust displayed during the visit strengthens the premise of our Neighborhood First Policy, no mention about the resettlement of Tamils in the North in the joint communiqué was taken up at the diplomatic level. As India has decided to pledge a fund of 2.6 billion dollars for development of Sri Lanka, it should use the potential to generate livelihoods in the Northern region where growth is possible in agriculture and fishing. Though our policy has always been to perceive Sri Lanka though the Chinese lens, India, has now, under it Neighbourhood First policy, is trying to look at Sri Lanka as an equal partner and this is likely to strengthen the relationship ahead. Our analysis of recent India and Sri Lanka relations clearly proves that since 1987 the two sides have less political and more of economic cum security engagement. India has signed the Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) for cooperation in services, investment and technology dimensions, The ETCA will provide Indian states in south India access to Sri Lankan markets. The ETCA has made Sri Lanka the new geohttps://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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economic pole of South Asia. Under the ETCA, India will focus on development of Trincomalee as a hydrocarbon hub for the region of Bay of Bengal.
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7 CHAPTER
India and Maldives Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical background Role of Navy in diplomacy Islamic extremism and Maldives Strategic importance of Maldives for India Commercial diplomacy GMR controversy Water aid diplomacy Analysis of recent visits
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Maldives was a British colony since mid-1880s, and became a British Protectorate on 6 December, 1887. It gained independence in 1965. Since then, India and Maldives have a diplomatic relation. There have been regular visits from each side. As Maldives is an island state, it is significant for the maritime security of India. Maldives is also a victim of piracy and favours a collective engagement to tackle it, making India a partner in providing leadership. Maritime security leadership by India for Maldives is crucial for its size. Maldives stretches out as a huge expanse in waters and has a tremendously large exclusive economic zone (EEZ) but lacks the defence capacity to ensure surveillance over the marine zone. Maldivian cooperation is also significant for preventing gun running and terrorism. th
Case Study Indian Navy and Maldives In 2007, when Eelam war–IV was being fought, a lot of the LTTE cadres reached over up to Maldivian waters. In fact, the Maldivian waters were used by the LTTE for illegal supplying of weapons, drugs and money. In this context, Maldives, in April 2007, sought Indian help and India sent assistance to Maldives to prevent this security threat. This also opened up future scope for naval cooperation between the two states. Post the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, Maldives has become concerned about the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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safety of tourists on this coast.
ISLAMIC EXTREMISM AND MALDIVES A serious cause of concern in the recent times for Maldives is the rise of radical Islam. The concern is felt as Maldives itself is an Islamic Republic. Rise of extremism in Maldives has its origin since independence. Since Maldivian independence, literacy has been high but there was an absence of higher education institutions. Many Maldivian students were indoctrinated with the Salafi-Jihadi ideology. On their return to Maldives, the gradual spread of Salafi-Jihadi ideology through these students began to take place. Ibrahim Sheikh practised a neo conservative Salafism and was jailed in 1983 by Gayoom. Ibrahim Fauzee preaches Islam through his foundation linked to Jamia Salafiya. The Maldivian–Pakistan axis has also been of concern to India. In 2007, the Maldivian police detonated a homemade bomb in Sultan Park which was kept to target tourists. This incident exacerbated fears of radical Islam in Maldives.
STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF MALDIVES FOR INDIA The strategic importance was realised for the first time during British rule. The Indian Ocean (hereafter referred to as the IO) was literally a British lake and the British presence in the IO was specifically directed at protecting its empire in India. As World War–II ended, rivalry began between Russia and the US and the geostrategic role of Maldives increased. The British introduced the US to Maldives during Cold War to use it as needed to contain India and ensure strategic defence of the gulf. For India, the IO was a lifeline and it has always wanted the IO region to be a zone of peace. India always aspired to protect the sea and its channels of communication as it is a crucial route for India’s energy security. The problem in Indian Ocean continues to be of lack of a unified transoceanic community in the IO region. Almost all states witness challenges but due to difference in military and economic capabilities, convergence for security cooperation becomes a challenge. India has used mechanisms like BIMSTEC and Indian-Ocean Rim Association (IORA) to boost strategic cooperation and has also undertaken Milan naval exercises. The US presence in the IO is perceived by India as a stabilising factor. As the region will remain important for communication, fishing and minerals exploration, India needs to ensure that no external power dominates the region.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY The bilateral trade has been in existence since 1981. In the same year, both signed a trade agreement for export of commodities essential to both. India exports agriculture, poultry, sugar, fruits and vegetables while importing scrap metals. Since 1974, the State Bank of India (SBI) has been instrumental in the economic development of Maldives. Tata Housing and Taj are examples of Indian investments in Maldives.
Case Study GMR Controversy Maldives is a tourist destination. The then President Nasheed began to invite bids internationally to privatise and redevelop the Ibrahim Nasir International Airport. The bid was on the idea that any bidder willing to share maximum profit with the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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government shall be eligible. The Indian multinational company, GMR group, participated in the bid overseen by the international financial corporation (IFC). The IFC is a World Bank arm, formed to assist investors in doing business in developing nations and boost investments. In 2010, the contract was won by GMR which gave it a 25 year right to run the Maldives airport. An agreed point in the contract was that, in case of a dispute, the victim party can approach the High court of Singapore or London. A coup against Nasheed in 2012, and the coming of Waheed changed things. The GMR had been levying 25 Dollars Aviation Development Fees and two Dollars as insurance, which a local Maldivian court nullified as it declared it as a tax that had been charged without Parliament authority. But GMR asserted this right as part of contract. Waheed decided to take over the airport to be managed by Maldivian Airport Company Limited (MACL). In December 2012, GMR approached Singapore Arbitration, where the ruling came in favour of Waheed. GMR thereafter filed an 800 million Dollars suit for losses. The Singapore court admitted the suit for damages and in 2014 finally gave relief to GMR and instructed MACL to pay 4 million Dollars in damages. In another order on 23 February, 2016, the International Arbitration Tribunal also directed the MACL and the Maldives government to pay GMR the money that GMR owed to Axis Bank of Singapore under the agreement. rd
Analysis of President Yameen’s Visit to India, 2016 In April 2016, President Abdulla Yameen came to India on an official visit. The basic thrust was to revive the relations that had plummeted post the GMR issue. He was appreciative and thanked India for their help in 2014 for water aid (see case study below). India has not been very appreciative, however, of the Maldivian propensity to politically align with China. China is building bridges and ferry terminals in Maldives, and Maldives is, further, a part of China’s Silk Road project. In order to revitalise its special relations with India, Yameen visited India. A deference cooperation plan was agreed to, and long term cooperation with respect to South Asian Satellites, taxation, conservation of ancient mosques and monuments, tourism and education was envisaged. Considering the fact that radicalisation is on the rise and the ISIS influence is visible in Maldives, with more than forty Maldivian nationals arrested for ISIS related activities, India needs to maintain its bilateral relations with Maldives very closely.
Case Study Water Aid Diplomacy In 2014, a fire broke out at Male Water and Sewage Company, originating in their generator control panel. It damaged the cables of the generator and ended up disconnecting their water supply. Maldives has no permanent rivers and streams for drinking water. Thus, suddenly there was a severe water crisis. Maldives gave a distress call to India. India immediately responded by sending 5 plane loads of drinking water and INS Sukanya and Vivek were pressed into service to purify water through reverse osmosis. India supplied 20 tonnes of fresh water for 1.5 lakh Male residents.
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8 CHAPTER
India and Afghanistan Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical background Origin of India–Afghanistan relations Indian interests in Afghanistan Afghanistan as a gateway to Central Asia Indian engagement since 2001 Policy options for India post-2014 Role of regional players and their power politics Analysis of recent visits Heart of Asia process India–Afghanistan Air Corridor
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF AFGHANISTAN The historical study of Afghanistan becomes interesting from the British period. The British, to prevent Russian advancement into Asia, decided to render Afghanistan into a buffer state. It fought three Anglo–Afghan wars against Afghanistan, among which the most significant is the third Anglo–Afghan war of 1919 where King Amanullah succeeded in gaining right to independently govern Afghanistan. The war got concluded in 1919 with Treaty of Rawalpindi, thereby giving Afghanistan the right to be independent of British dominance. King Amanullah subsequently initiated the modernisation of Afghanistan. He was succeeded by King Nadir Shah and Zahir Shah later. It is king Zahir Shah that gave Afghanistan a Constitution in 1964. Due to internal weaknesses in the regime and heightened Cold War tensions, in 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and installed Babrak Karmal as the head of state. The US tried to counter Soviet presence in Afghanistan by supporting rebels to undertake jihad. Saudi Arabia propagated the Wahabi ideology while Pakistan a base to the US in the endeavour. The US initiated a fully fledged Mujahedeen campaign in 1980s to counter Soviets. US initiated a Mujahedeen campaign in Afghanistan by training people to wage a war against the Soviet to save Islam. US trained Mujahedeens (fighters) to wage a Jihad (a war to protect the religion) in Afghanistan. US mobilised these Mujahedeens and established a common platform ‘The Base’ (in Arabic language called Al Qaeda) US promised these Mujahedeens that if they succeed in removing the Soviets from Afghanistan, the US would help them to acquire power in Afghanistan. These Mujahedeens unleashed a campaign of violence in Afghanistan making it tough for the Soviets to exist. The internal weakness of the Soviet puppet regime became clear and https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Gorbachev replaced Babrak Karmal with Mohammad Najibullah to save Afghanistan. As the Soviet Union failed to save Afghanistan, in 1989, under the Geneva Accord, Soviet Union decided to withdraw from Afghanistan. As USSR withdrew from Afghanistan, the US too stopped all support to the Mujahedeens and did not help them to acquire power in Afghanistan as promised earlier. These Mujahedeens now became angry and decided to take revenge against the US. From 1989 to 1996, these Mujahedeens began to come together and they succeeded in using a common platform to plan a revenge against US. This common platform was called ‘The Base’ (In Arabic language it means Al Qaeda). As Al Qaeda was used, there were educated students in Afghanistan who became concerned about the future of their country. They knew that Najibullah was a weak ruler as he did not enjoy the Soviet backing anymore. By 1996, these educated students began to come together to establish a group to provide leadership to their country. This group was called Taliban. Taliban comes from the first few letters of the word called TALIB which means educated students. The subsequent ending of the Cold War and Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan post-1989 provided space for Mullah Omar, who was backed by Al-Qaeda, to fully establish a furiously regressive Taliban rule. The Taliban rule, firmly established by 1996, controlled Afghanistan till 2001. It was post 9/11 that US initiated Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Anaconda to counter Taliban presence in Afghanistan. The US Congress granted clearance and authorised the use of military force abroad, clearing the way for the invasion of Afghanistan in October, 2001. The Taliban and AlQaeda were tackled with the help of military on the ground. To build up a political consensus, the year 2001 saw a Bonn Conference in the city of Bonn in Germany. The Bonn Conference succeeded in installing an interim government in place. Subsequently, Hamid Karzai was chosen as the first democratically elected President of Afghanistan in the most crucial period in its history. With the coming of Barack Obama to power as the US President, he shifted the focus on ending the Afghan war. In 2012, the US and Afghanistan concluded a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA). The aim of the BSA was to elicit the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The US, in the meantime, while discussing and finalising the withdrawal of troops, opened a new front of talks with liberal Taliban elements known as the Good Taliban with an aim to reconcile them to the mainstream. The US, on ground, have continued to focus on nation building in Afghanistan and have worked for the capacity building of the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF). Even after the US troops finally withdraw, the ANSF is deemed to be strong enough at present to prevent the Taliban from recapturing Afghanistan again. Let us now turn our attention to Taliban. In 2016, in a missile strike by the US, Mullah Mansoor, who had succeeded Mullah Omar as the new leader of Taliban, died. Mansoor was a product of the ISI of Pakistan and was given logistical and military support by Pakistan. After Mansoor had assumed the leadership of Taliban in July 2015, the Taliban was on a rampage. Taliban and its key partner that is Haqqani Networks had initiated a series of urban bombings. Taliban in the recent times is following a two point strategy. It is trying to attack cities, civilians and protected targets like embassies etc. Through this, they are trying to give a message that they can strike anywhere and can assert more power than the state. Secondly, they have started attacking provincial capitals in Afghanistan. After attacking the capitals, they capture power for some days in the capital cities. Through this, they are trying to expose https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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the limits of Afghani state power. ISI of Pakistan has its own game plan, They wanted to support Mansoor by giving him military support to satiate his appetite for military weapons while using him as a pawn to bargain for peace thereby enabling the ISI to install a Taliban government in Afghanistan. After the death of Mansoor, there has been a power struggle in Taliban. The power struggle is between Sirrajuddin Haqqani, Rasool and Mullah Yakoob. The power struggle is not merely political. Taliban today controls billion dollars worth opium trade in the Helmund Province in Afghanistan. The middle and the junior leg of Taliban is least interested to join power as doing so would strip them of the power they wield today. The middle and junior leaders in Taliban have already formed their own little empires in Afghanistan and are not supporting the senior leaders in peace talks for the same reason. Hamid Karzai was the first person to understand that if Taliban is not taken on board for talks, then the fate and future of Afghanistan is very bleak. But, as seen, there is no unity in Taliban for talks. There is a belief that many junior and middle level leaders and cadres of Taliban have started deflecting towards ISIS which is striving to create its own version of a franchise in Afghanistan. Pakistan since 1970’s feels that it can have a deep say in the affairs of Afghanistan but the Pakistani ISI and the military lack the capabilities for such strategic ambitions. Thus, India will play a larger role in Afghanistan in the future. Anyday, the Taliban will listen more to India than Pakistan because the Taliban is ideologically tilted towards Deobandi school of Islam and India is not only the birthplace of Deobandi Islam but also has a good rapport with the Deobandi leaders. The Quadrilateral Coordination Group (USA, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan) has become a new Concert of Powers group striving for a peaceful and a stable Afghanistan.
ORIGINS OF INDIA AND AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS The origin of the relations goes back to the 6 century Gandhara era. However, in the modern times, the British Great Game got India closer to Afghanistan. In 1947, when India became independent, Zahir Shah was the Afghan King. In 1949, he concluded the Treaty of Friendship with India which opened up diplomatic relations. During 1950s and ’60s, India developed its diplomatic proximity with Afghanistan. The 2400 km long boundary between Afghanistan and Pakistan is called Durand Line. Afghanistan refused to accept it as a border alleging it divides families on two sides. This created an irritant in Af–Pak relations. In 1979, when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, India did not condemn the invasion but began to instead drift away from engaging directly with Afghanistan as it had become actively involved in Cold War politics while India was the propounder and supporter of NAM. In 1996, with the rise of the Taliban, India joined hands with Russia and Iran in supporting the United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan (UIFSA), also called as the Northern Alliance and provided it ample support during the Taliban rule. Post US Operation Enduring Freedom and the Bonn-I conference, India supported the development of Afghanistan and sided with Hamid Karzai. India has also continued to engage with Ashraf Ghani as of 2016. An analytical survey of Indian engagement and interests in Afghanistan shall now follow in the subsequent sections. th
INDIAN INTEREST IN AFGHANISTAN India was supportive of the Northern Alliance to counter the weight of Taliban in Afghanistan, and its engagement has broadened post the 9/11 attacks in the US, and the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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consequent ousting of the Taliban by Operation Enduring Freedom of the US. India’s diplomatic energy in Afghanistan is invested primarily in enhancing its own interests in Afghanistan. India’s first and most important interest in Afghanistan is to ensure that Pakistan does not gain an edge within governing structures of Afghanistan. India feels that if Pakistan succeeds in installing Taliban or a Taliban-sponsored regime in Afghanistan, it will be detrimental to the cause of the regional security of India. On the other hand, Pakistan feels that India should not be allowed to get a hold on Afghanistan and perceives any growing Indo–Afghan proximity as an attempt by India to counter Pakistan by maintaining its presence in Afghanistan. Each has tried neutralising the other’s influence in governance and management of Afghanistan, leading to a classic security dilemma where any measure by one elicits a counter response from other. Pakistani military has long supported Talibani elements and helped them flourish near the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan and continues to believe that the presence of the Taliban in Afghanistan would be the most effective way to undercut Indian influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan continues to maintain strategic depth in Afghanistan and certainly favours less Indian proximity to Afghanistan. As Karzai rose to power in Afghanistan in the post2001 period, India decided to deepen its engagement with Afghanistan by opening consulates in Herat, Mazar-e-sharif, Kandahar and Jalalabad. Pakistan alleges that India uses these consulates to contain Pakistan as these consulates give Indian agencies an access to gather intelligence from across the border. Pakistan also alleges that India provides assistance to Baluchistani rebels through these consulates. Pakistan has also tried to limit India from undertaking commerce with Afghanistan by refusing to allow transit rights over Pakistan to reach Afghanistan. India has used the alternative route of Iran to reach Afghanistan. As Indian developmental activities continue in Afghanistan, India has realised the need to protect its Border Road Organisation personnel by using the Indo– Tibetan Border Police which is stationed in Afghanistan. Despite all tactics adopted by Pakistan to keep India out of Afghanistan, India continues to deepen its ties with the region by engaging with Afghanistan. Apart from ensuring that the region does not fall into the orbit of Pakistan giving it leverage against India, another crucial policy determinant of India in Afghanistan is to ensure zero spillover of extremists to India. India has been a victim of state sponsored terrorism from Pakistan and engages with Afghanistan to ensure no spillover of extremism or Islamic radicalism happens in India. If Pakistan succeeds in helping the Taliban establish a footing in Afghanistan, this would enable Pakistan to train extremists and militants in the uncontrolled Taliban region and use them against India and more specifically, against Kashmir. In fact, at present, the extremists fighting in Kashmir owe their patronage mostly to Pakistan’s ISI and have drawn inspiration from the resistance offered by Afghan mujahideen against the Soviets during the Cold War. India was under the impression that after 9/11, the US would put pressure on Pakistan to dismantle the Jihadi networks that operate from Pakistan, considering that India too had been a victim of terrorism emanating from Pakistani soil. However, a reluctant approach by Islamabad to clamp down on the Jihadi cells in their territory has given the Jihadis the needed space for growth. Pakistan even continues to use Jihad as a part of its grand strategy as it gives them the power to influence the region. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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AFGHANISTAN AS AN OUTREACH TO CENTRAL ASIA (CA) Central Asia is crucial for India’s energy security and an outreach to CA is crucial. India established a base at Ayni in Tajikistan, which was used to assist the Northern Alliance during the Taliban regime. In the Afghan chessboard, Iran seems to be a crucial player for many reasons. Firstly, Iran favours engagement with Afghanistan to assert its regional power. Iran certainly does not want Pakistan to deepen its roots in Afghanistan as Iran sees Pakistan as a Saudi Arabian ally. Iran is a Shia nation while Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are Sunni nations. It’s the sectarian divide that configures the Iranian perspective of Pakistan. At the same time, Pakistan is also intensely uncomfortable with the India–Iran– Afghanistan axis that has every possibility of emerging. India is deepening its proximity with Iran to reach Central Asia. India is developing the Chabahar port of Iran for this purpose. As the geopolitical influence of CA in the region increases, more and more players would be involved. The US is not keen to witness greater Chinese and Russian proximity in CA while China and Russia use Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to keep the US influence under control in CA. The US favours deeper Indian engagement in CA as this will counter growing Chinese influence. As USA–Iran ties have improved, the US favours an Indo–Iranian foray into CA to contain Chinese influence in the region. As the US began to withdraw its troops in 2014, it started cooperating with Russia. It was a diplomatic masterstroke as it gave a stabilising effect in the region. Russia opened up its airspace for the US to transport its troops and supplies and this served Indian interests as cooperation between US and Russian decreases the significance of Pakistan, which in turn suits India. India’s post-2001 engagement has to be also seen in a different context. India, today, successfully uses Afghanistan as classic case to assert its regional hegemony. As India’s economic and military profiles grow, India would be trying to use Afghanistan to establish its own credentials as a regional security provider and a regional stabiliser. India knows that its ability to emerge as a great power in the near future hinges upon its strategic capacity exercised in dealing with its own region. Afghanistan has a pivotal place in this regard in Indian Foreign Policy.
INDIAN ENGAGEMENT SINCE 2001 In 2001, after the Bonn–I conference, India immediately increased its engagement with Afghanistan. During the Taliban regime, between India and Afghanistan, what had continued in the name of diplomacy was merely the existence of a liaison office. In 2002, India upgraded the liaison office to an embassy. India began to support the Afghan government for political development. It also engaged with all ethnic groups in Afghanistan since 2001, which has given India a broader acceptance in the country. India has provided almost 1.2 billion Dollars for the reconstruction of the Afghan society and has pledged 2 billion Dollars for overall development. Indian assistance has been largely focussed on infrastructure, irrigation and defence.
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Case Study Afghanistan and Bollywood Bollywood is the most popular Indian connection in Afghanistan. A lot of Bollywood films have been close to Afghan hearts. Taliban, during their rule in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, imposed a ban on Bollywood films been screened or seen. This ban was highly ineffective. In Afghanistan, the reason that Bollywood is popular is because it has deep echoes with the psyche of Afghan society. Bollywood cinemas are based on the theme of a larger-than-life Bollywood hero fighting injustice. This synchronises well with the Afghan society, which has also faced and continues to face immense injustice. The society is able to connect it with the ground reality and thus Bollywood films provide a platform for common Afghan men to vicariously render their lives into grandiose narratives and successfully elide their real life with their strongest fantasies. This has contributed to people-to-people development in the two nations. As US began to focus on the war on Iraq, which gave Pakistan the opportunity to seek its lost strategic space in Afghanistan. Pakistan began to sponsor the Haqqani networks who initiated widespread attacks on Indian workers in Afghanistan. Indian officials in the Border Roads Organisation were affected. The Indian embassy was attacked both in 2008 and 2009. Over a period of time, the US began to initiate a dialogue with the Taliban, giving rise to a debate called the Good Taliban versus the Bad Taliban. The US argued that certain liberal elements in the Taliban could be brought to centre stage to work in Afghanistan. The US also helped in setting a stage for Pakistan to play the role of a mediator in Kabul with the Taliban negotiations. All these changed ground realities and India became marginalised due to the increased role accrued of Pakistan. Pakistan was now valued in the strategic calculus to https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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foster reconciliation between good Taliban and Afghanistan. This time period also saw Obama announcing an exit from Afghanistan by 2014. The US, in order to ensure that it does not offend Pakistan, discouraged any proactive Indian role in Afghanistan. India gradually came to see that its politico-economic-cum-cultural soft policy to engage with Afghanistan had not been yielding any strategic benefits except a success in winning the hearts and minds of the Afghani people. The subsequent period saw a steady decline of the Indian presence in Afghanistan. But all this did not demotivate India to the extent where it thought of retreating completely. In fact, India stayed back and decided to chart out an independent strategy. To preserve its interest in the changing strategic landscape of Afghanistan and because of the commitment of NATO forces to withdraw, India stepped up its decision to provide training to the ANSF. It began to rework its engagement with Russia and Iran and also made a strong attempt to reach out to various sections of the Afghan society. Indian cooperation with Russia and Iran is important in context of the period of renewed efforts as none of them favour Sunni dominance in Afghanistan and are committed, for the benefit of India, to keep out Pakistan. In 2011, India and Afghanistan concluded a Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA). The idea was now to use the SPA to regain the lost strategic space.
POLICY OPTIONS FOR INDIA POST 2014 Despite the ongoing strategic partnership between India and Afghanistan, the overall policy of India in Afghanistan lacks direction. India has not resorted to a forward policy of stationing its military in Afghanistan but has increased defence equipment supply to the nation. The Indian policy cannot even be called one of masterly inactivity. India has not resorted to the policy of weakening Pakistan by destabilising Pakistan from within as it has preferred political investment through dialogue. The dialogue with Pakistan often gets affected due to disturbances on both sides but it broadly remains committed to a dialogue level only. India has not officially sided with the US by being a part of USA’s Global War on Terrorism but seeks US cooperation in stabilising the region. Indian policy has favoured a regional engagement for a broad solution. It remains to be seen in future as to what options India may take as presently, it resorts to a supreme mix of all of the above strategies to suit its self-interest. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Broadly, the Indian policy is to assist developmental activity in Afghanistan. It would continue to diplomatically support people-centred soft policy initiatives and create infrastructure with a broad focus of ‘winning hearts and minds’. India, thus, continues with the Afghan led, Afghan oriented, people-centric inclusive policy. India, in 2017, taking a positive note of Statements by US President Donald Trump on a proactive role for India in Afghanistan, has initiated a new India–Afghanistan Developmental Partnership Agreement (DPA). In September 2017, during the visit of Afghan foreign minister to India, the two sides concluded the DPA and India announced 160 High Intensity Development Projects in Afghanistan.
ANALYSIS OF INDIAN PM’S VISIT TO AFGHANISTAN— DECEMBER, 2015 AND JUNE, 2016 The Indian PM, Narendra Modi, visited Afghanistan in December, 2015 where he dedicated the parliament building constructed with Indian assistance to the people of Afghanistan. In the Parliament, the PM addressed the members of the Meshrano Jirga and the Wolesi Jirga. In the same Parliament, a block has been dedicated to former Indian Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The PM committed 170,000 tonnes of wheat supply to Afghanistan and provided support by supplying a contract to develop 1000 new buses in Afghanistan, which is expected to help in job creation. Undertaking strategic cooperation, the Indian PM handed over four Mi-25 helicopters to Afghanistan. India had also decided to open a new consulate in Hyderabad. In June, 2016, the PM again visited Afghanistan. He was conferred with the Amir Amanullah Khan Award. It is the highest honour awarded to any civilian by Afghanistan. The PM inaugurated the Salma Dam, constructed with Indian assistance. Afghanistan decided to name it the Afghan–India Friendship dam. The project would irrigate fields of 640 villages in Chiste, Obe, Koshan, Karokh, Pashtun, Zarghun, Gozura, Injil, Zindijan and Ghoryan. It will generate 42 megawatt and irrigate 75,000 hectare land on Hari Rud River. The equipment to create the dam was sent via Bander-e-Abbas port and roads.
ROLE OF REGIONAL PLAYERS AND THEIR POWER POLITICS The previous subsections have surveyed the entirety of the Indo–Afghan strategic reality. As far as Afghanistan is concerned, it knows that Pakistan is the key to a stable Afghanistan. However, till the time Pakistan does not stop sponsoring Taliban and halt cultivating anti-Afghanistan forces, the situation will be fragile. Pakistan wants to use Afghanistan to maintain strategic depth against India and till the time it does not do away with this policy, it will remain a stumbling block to regional peace. Turkey, in 2010, organised a conference on the future of Afghanistan. This led many to speculate about the role of Turkey vis-à-vis Afghanistan. The Turkish foreign policy establishment feels the urge to revive the Ottoman empire and Turkey is looking at finding a suitable diplomatic space in the region to increase its influence. Although Russia has, as stated in previous subsections, allowed the withdrawal of NATO troops through the Northern Distribution Network routes, it certainly favours less of US presence in the region. As far as China is concerned, it is not comfortable with US military presence in the region. China is an aggressive player in Central Asia and as it creates a resource-centric policy to garner resources from Central Asia, it would favour a stable Afghanistan. China https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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certainly favours the absence of Taliban in Afghanistan and is cooperating with the US and Pakistan in the negotiations with the good Taliban. China knows that the presence of a force like the Taliban in Afghanistan can act as a springboard for extremism in Xinjiang and revive Uyghur militancy. However, due to its all-weather friendship with Pakistan, it prefers not putting pressure on Pakistan to dismantle terrorist networks as it knows that if Pakistan maintains strategic depth against India in Afghanistan, it will weaken India in Afghanistan and subsequently Central Asia. This would indeed be favourable to China as it would then not fear Indian competition with respect to the resources of Central Asia. On the other hand, the US favours more Indian presence in Central Asia to counter China and keep a check on the growing dominance by China in central Asia. Russia is concerned with rising ISIS presence in Central Asia and it feels that ISIS and Taliban can use Central Asia as a base to target Russia. Russia feels it could be targeted by the ISIS and Taliban duo due to its support to the Shia Iran and Syria. Russia feels that an anti Russia coalition could be created by the Sunni groups like ISIS and Taliban. Russia feels that ISIS and Taliban could use narcotics trade from Central Asia to weaken Russia. This has compelled Russia to be an important stakeholder in Afghanistan and is negotiating with Taliban. Iran feels that ISIS and Taliban can create troubles for Iran in the Eastern fringes where Iran has a border with Afghanistan. Also Iran fears that in the long run if Afghanistan becomes unstable, it could lead to a refugee influx from Afghanistan to Iran. Keeping these threats in mind, Iran is also trying to offer refuge to Taliban and is harbouring a breakaway faction of Taliban (breakaway from Mansoor faction) led by Mullah Zakir. The future of Afghanistan depends upon the commitment of US in the peace process. Obama had given China a leadership role in Afghanistan but the Trump Administration has asserted that it will not allow China to flex its muscles in Afghanistan where it has spent tremendous resources. Trump Administration has complicated the entire situation due to difference in perception. During the Obama administration, US and Russia were of the view that Taliban is a part of the solution and thereby focussed on integrating Taliban to the mainstream. But, now the Trump Administration has conveyed that Taliban is a part of the problem and not the solution while Russia continues to feel that Taliban is a part of the solution. Thus, this difference in interpretation of Taliban has put Taliban and Russia on a divergent path. This new interpretation of US has put it on a similar path advocated by India because India since the beginning has asserted that Taliban is a part of the problem and not the solution. This is likely to manifest as a new phase of Indo-US cooperation in the future of Afghanistan.
HEART OF ASIA PROCESS In 2011, in Istanbul, Turkey, the Heart of Asia (HOA) process was launched as a platform involving regional players to ensure a stable and a secure Afghanistan. There are 14 participating countries and IT supporting countries in the HOA process.
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India is one of the participating countries and has held the chair of the HOA process in 2016. The 6 Edition of HOA Istanbul Process of Afghanistan was inaugurated by Narendra Modi and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in Amritsar in December 2016. The theme of the conference was “addressing challenges, achieving prosperity”. th
The two-day conference at Amritsar was attended by delegates from over 40 countries. During the conference, Pakistan pledged 500 million Dollars to Afghanistan which the Afghan president refused to accept and rather advised Pakistan to use the wealth to dismantle the terrorist networks in Pakistan. At the end of the conference, Amritsar Declaration was concluded with a strong focus on addressing issues related to terrorism. The Declaration appreciated the European Union for its establishment of the Self Reliance Mutual Accountability Framework (SRMAF) to support development of Afghanistan and, for first time, the declaration spoke about security threats to Afghanistan and violence caused by ISIS, Haqqani networks, Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohamad. The Declaration asserted the need for early conclusion of comprehensive convention on International Terrorism. The Declaration appreciated the efforts of the Afghan government in bringing Hizb-e-Islami Gulbuddin Hekmathyar within a peaceful framework. The declaration emphasised on the need to strengthen cooperation amongst the states of HOA process in the fight against terrorism, extremism and radicalisation. The Declaration asserted that the member states of HOA Process should take steps to divert the energies of youth from extremism. A proposal was made to initiate a dialogue on drafting a regional counter terrorism framework strategy. A special emphasis in the Declaration was laid upon improving regional connectivity to boost economic cooperation. Regional initiatives like TAPI pipelines, CASA–1000, the Chabahar Agreement, Five Nation Railway and Silk Road Economic Belt were appreciated.
Case Study Why was Amritsar Chosen as a Venue for HOA? Amritsar was chosen as a venue for the HOA conference in line with the Modi government’s policy of showcasing other cities through international conferences. The major theme of the HOA, as examined above, is connectivity. Amritsar was deliberately chosen as it lies at the heart of the Grant Trunk Road connecting Bangladesh to Peshawar. More so, India tried to convey a strong symbolic message to Pakistan by holding the conference in Amritsar. It showcased that Pakistan remains https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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an irritant in facilitating regional connectivity. India used the conference in Amritsar to press Pakistan to allow entry of trucks and transit to Afghanistan via the Attari– Wagah border.
REGIONAL PLAYERS AND GREAT GAME We shall now turn our attention to the role of regional players and their policies related to Afghanistan. An analysis of Afghani history clearly tells us that most of the regional and global actors have used Afghanistan and have ensured that it perpetually remains in a state of instability. The situation has assumed a new sense of urgency after the departure of the NATO troops in 2014. It is in this context—to manage the transition—that the role of regional players has assumed significance. When Ashraf Ghani assumed office as the Afghan President in September 2014, he spent the initial few months in improving ties with Pakistan. He expanded his engagement with the military set up of Pakistan. Ashraf Ghani’s engagement with Pakistan was based on the logic that Pakistan is the key to engagement with the Taliban. Even the US wanted an engagement of Afghanistan with the Taliban. But since 2014, Pakistan’s ISI has been using Taliban to instigate violence in Afghanistan. After giving enough time to Pakistan to mend ways, Ghani finally understood that courting Pakistan would yield little or no result. In a joint session of the Afghanistan Parliament in April 2016, Ghani threatened to drag Pakistan to the United Nations (UN) for inciting violence in Afghanistan. After the death of Mullah Qmar of Taliban, his successor Mullah Mansor was also killed by the US in a drone strike in Baluchistan. It is in this context that regional cooperation has emerged as a viable model for ensuring stability in Afghanistan. However, the goal of envisaging regional cooperation remains a distant one due to regional power struggles.
China has mostly undertaken economic investments in Afghanistan while following a hands free approach at the political level. At the economic level, it has made its presence felt in the Mes Aynak copper mine project where it intends to extract copper to the tune of 100 billion dollars. It was in September 2012 that China decided to end the policy of masterly inactivity. It decided to engage with Pakistan to ensure reconciliation with the Taliban. It also decided to train Afghan forces and police. China has been concerned about the security situation post the withdrawal of the US troops. China is of the opinion that the Taliban should not be allowed to re-establish control in Afghanistan as they could lead to a spark of insurgency in Xinjiang province amongst the Uyghur. China has become all the more cautious about the role Pakistan would play in the future as rumours of Pakistan training the Uyghurs have surfaced. The coming of Modi government in India has also led to a shift in India’s Afghan Policy. India, under its new regime, has communicated to Afghanistan that it will favour a https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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strong and prosperous Afghanistan and would remain committed to the development of Afghanistan even after US troops withdraw. In fact, India has expanded its security profile in Afghanistan and provided military jeeps and four Mi–25 attack helicopters. India has understood that it has to fight its own battle in Afghanistan and cannot rely on US for solutions. India still asserts that the root cause of the trouble in Afghanistan is Pakistan’s incitement and sheltering of the Taliban whereas China refuses to accept the Indian view. Thus, both China and India have different perceptions on how the future transition of Afghanistan should be managed. Since 2012, another unique situation witnessed in the region is the renewed relationship of Russia and Pakistan. Russia, since 2012, has professed a new interest in Pakistan, which has manifested in the form of multiple high level bilateral visits and a defence exercise between the two in 2016. Russia is expanding its alignments in Asia and Pakistan has assumed a central position in the Russian foreign policy. However, whatever be the shape of the Russia–Pakistan relationship, Russia can never replace the US when it comes to defence aid to Pakistan. India and Iran are also deepening their engagement primarily to reach out to Afghanistan and Central Asia without going to Pakistan. Any Indo–Iranian cooperation that is undertaken is perceived by Pakistan as an attempt to encircle it. Though Pakistan and Iran have also tried to improve their ties, yet nothing concrete on ground has so far been achieved. When the US announced that it would withdraw its troops from Afghanistan starting 2014, it generated more apprehensions in Iran. This was because of the departure of the US would automatically mean more leverage to Pakistan in the region. Since 2014, Pakistan too has been at the forefront along with Afghanistan and China, initiating a dialogue between Afghanistan and the Taliban. As negotiations happen, it gives Pakistan a new influence in the region. This is not appreciated by Iran as it undermines the Iranian influence in the region outright. Thus, there is a possibility that Iran may revive support to proxies (the Shia Hazrana Community in Afghanistan) to undermine Pakistan. The present US President Donald Trump has already conveyed his displeasure with the US–Iran nuclear deal. This may compel Iran to further ignite the regional rivalry again. It is in this context that India’s soft power attributes can help stabilise Afghanistan. The recognition by Ashraf Ghani of the fact that India is a credible player has brought India back into the Afghan calculus. Since India has invested around two billion Dollars in Afghanistan, this has helped India to generate tremendous goodwill in the country. India has also decided to address the feeling of neglect amongst the minorities in the provinces of North Afghanistan by undertaking investment in the area. How India will manage the instability in Afghanistan in future will finally determine the rise of India as a global player. Afghanistan, in this context, is a litmus test for India.
Case Study India and Afghanistan Air Corridor—The New Great Game? The two countries in June 2017 established an Air Corridor which was envisaged by Ashraf Ghani and Modi in 2016. The air corridor will be a big enabler to the bilateral trade and will send a strong message to Pakistan that despite its obstructionist behaviour, India will continue to engage with Afghanistan. In 2010, Pakistan and Afghanistan concluded an Afghanistan Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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(APTTA). Under the APTTA, Afghanistan could send goods in trucks till India (at the Wagah border near Amritsar, Punjab) but its trucks had to return back to Afghanistan empty. Also in APTTA, Pakistan could send its trucks via Afghanistan to Uzbekistan and the Pakistani trucks were allowed to carry goods back from Central Asia. In 2016, Ashraf Ghani asserted that if Pakistan does not allow its trucks to come back with goods from India, Afghanistan would block Pakistani access to Central Asia. But, despite assertion by Ghani, Pakistan refused to budge. Ghani subsequently decided to seek help from India and the help from India finally manifested as the Air corridor agreement between the two.
End of Section Questions 1. Examine the evolution of India’s Neighborhood Policy from Nehru till the end of Cold War. 2. What are the core elements of Neighborhood First Policy? Discuss the major challenges. 3. Examine India’s Aid Diplomacy in the neighborhood? 4. Stratospheric diplomacy is a new element in India’s Neighborhood diplomacy. Discuss. 5. Examine the impact of the China factor in Indo–Bhutan relations? 6. “Due to the economic blockage in Nepal, India’s story has not won and its soft power policy stands to be eroded.” Examine this statement in the light of Soft Power diplomacy concept promoted by Joseph Nye. 7. India–Bangladesh have transformed their relationship at defense and hydro carbon levels. Examine core components in both. 8. “Rohingyas could emerge as a serious threat to India’s security interests.” Discuss. 9. India–Sri Lanka Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement will transform Bay of Bengal as a hydrocarbon hub. Discuss. 10. Afghanistan has been a prize that Pakistan and India have fought over directly and indirectly for decades. Examine.
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Section E Bilateral Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements Involving India and/or Affecting India’s Interests Part-A: India and its Bilateral Relations with Africa Chapter 1 India and Africa Policy—Key Drivers Chapter 2 India and Mauritius Relations Chapter 3 India and Kenya Relations Chapter 4 India and Mozambique Relations Chapter 5 India and Nigeria Relations Chapter 6 India and Angola Relations Chapter 7 India and Seychelles Relations Chapter 8 India and Namibia Relations Chapter 9 India and Ghana and Cote D’ Ivoire Relations Chapter 10 India and South Africa Relations Chapter 11 India’s Outreach to Africa
Part-B: India and its Bilateral Relations with Central Asia Chapter 1 India and Central Asia Policy—Key Drivers of the Relationship Chapter 2 India and Kazakhastan Relations Chapter 3 India and Kyrgyz Republic Relations Chapter 4 India and Tajikistan Relations Chapter 5 India and Tajikistan Relations Chapter 6 India and Uzbekistan Relations
Part-C: India and Bilateral Relations in South East Asia and Oceania Chapter 1 India and South East Asia Policy—Key Drivers Chapter 2 India and Australia Relations Chapter 3 India and Vietnam Relations Chapter 4 India and South Korea Relations Chapter 5 India and North Korea Relations Chapter 6 India and Fiji Relations
Part-D: India and its Bilateral Relations in Europe Chapter 1 India and Europe Policy—Key Drivers of the Relations Chapter 2 India and France Relations Chapter 3 India and Germany Relations Chapter 4 India and Belgium Relations Chapter 5 India and Switzerland Relations
Part-E: India and its bilateral relations in West Asia https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Chapter 1 India and West Asia Policy—Key Drivers Chapter 2 India and Egypt Relations Chapter 3 India and Qatar Relations Chapter 4 India and Turkey Relations Chapter 5 India and United Arab Emirates Relations Chapter 6 India and Saudi Arabia Relations
Part-F: India and its Bilateral Relations in Latin America Chapter 1 India and Latin America Policy—Key Drivers Chapter 2 India and Venezuela Relations Chapter 3 India and Mexico Relations Chapter 4 India and Brazil Relations
Part-G: India and its Relations with Middle Powers Chapter 1 The Concept of Middle Powers Chapter 2 India and the Great Britain Relations Chapter 3 India and Canada Relations Chapter 4 India and Iran Relations
Part-H: India and its Relations with Great Powers Chapter 1 India and Japan Relations Chapter 2: India and the USA Relations Chapter 3: India and Israel Relations Chapter 4: India and Russia Relations
Part-I: India and its Relations with Core Neighbors Chapter 1 India and Pakistan Relations Chapter 2 India and China Relations
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PART-A
1 CHAPTER
India and Africa Policy—Key Drivers
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical Background of India and Africa Diplomacy Significance of Africa for India Key drivers of India’s Africa Policy India and Africa Trade diplomacy Diplomatic issues related to Security and Piracy Diplomatic policy of China in Africa Future policy of India
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND The relations between India and Africa owe their origin to the monsoon winds. Sailors from India sailed in South East monsoonal winds to reach Africa (from June to September) and used the North Eastern monsoonal winds (from December to March) to sail back. In the ancient times, India had developed considerable marine and naval technologies. Reference of maritime strength of India is found in the Rig Veda. A glimpse of India’s natural convergence with West Asia and Africa is found in a guide book for sailors called the Periplus of the Erythraean Sea, a Greco-Roman text attributed to different dates between the 1 and 3 centuries BCE, which aptly summaries India’s ancient sea links with Zenj Coast and Egypt. During ancient sea trade, Indians used to trade rice and wheat cloth with incense, palm oil, ivory and gold from Africa. The sea trade with East African Coast also facilitated the movement of Indian traders into south and central African territories. Due to the flourishing trade, a lot of Indians also began to migrate to Africa. At any point of time in Africa, we had some form of Indian presence. In 1497, when Vasco de Gama reached Malindi, he also noted the presence of Indians in Mombasa/Khilwa etc. If the ancient time was marked by trade, it opened up people-topeople contacts, which, in medieval times, saw one of its manifestations during the Mughal rule when Africans were placed in the Mughal army and they were mainly the Siddis (people who are descendents of Bantu tribes). They were also found in the army of Mohamed Bin Qasim. st
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After the commencement of the imperial age in Europe, Africa became a colonial battleground. The British, French and Portuguese were the leaders in this race for https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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colonisation. The 17 century period saw slave trade beginning in Africa. Slaves were taken from Africa along with resources to sustain the Industrial Revolution back home in Europe. The presence of European powers in Africa also created more opportunities in Africa. For examples, as the French colonised Mauritius and Reunion, there was a need of masons, blacksmiths and carpenters and so on. Perceiving these as opportunities, the Indian traders in Africa also brought skilled persons who fit the job descriptions from various parts of the west coast of India. A lot of Indians began to settle down to these jobs in Mauritius, Reunion and other East African States. Gradually, the British also emerged on the African scene. In 1833, slavery was abolished in Britain. After this, a new system called indentured labour system, was evolved. The British now brought bonded labour from India to work on sugar plantations and cotton plantations. Bonded labour from India also worked on railway establishment in Africa. Free passengers were those people who had money, were willing you pay for transport to Africa and were driven by the spirit of entrepreneurship. th
Thus, during this time also we see a continued link with Africa which had begun with ancient time maritime trade. The following diagram represents the ancient sea trade and movement of Indians in East Africa:
During British colonial rule in India, three important actors in our relation with Africa were Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru and the Indian National Congress. The Congress, since its inception, showed support to and solidarity with the African cause. In 1890, the British sent Indian soldiers to fight to Sudan—a move that the Indian National Congress opposed vehemently as Indian soldiers in Sudan and Ethiopia did not fight for any cause that ultimately had any benefit for India. Rather, they were used by the British to suppress the natives. In 1893, Gandhi went on an assignment to Africa. During his study in Africa, he witnessed severe racial discrimination. During his stay in Africa till 1913–14, he evolved and practised the concept of Satyagraha, which eventually emerged as a technique of mass mobilisation. The success of Satyagraha in Africa affirmed its utility as a tool of non-violence and it went on to be later used as one of the core tools of Indian National Movement. During early 20th century, when the Indian National Movement gained momentum, India did not lose touch with Africa. India always felt that Africa, like India, had also been a victim of imperialism and that India needed to assist Africa in its fight against imperial powers. In 1927, the Indian National Congress (INC), at its Calcutta session, took a decision to open offices overseas. Offices by INC were opened in Africa to assist Africans. In 1927, Nehru had already participated in the Brussels Conference of oppressed Nationalities and had advanced an idea of India being a kingpin in the process of https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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liberating the world from imperial powers. The conference moulded our foreign policy thought from 1928 onwards as far as Africa was concerned—we began to link our freedom struggle with the imperial struggle of Africa. India evolved a thought that its own freedom struggle and Africa’s struggle against imperial powers as well as its fight against apartheid was in natural continuation with the idea of one world, free of imperialism and oppression. This Afro–Asian solidarity also moulded our foreign policy which after independence emerged as the policy of Non Alignment.
The first phase of India’s relations with African nations from 1950s to 1970s was a period marked by tremendous improvement. Indian policy with regard to Africa evolved in support of African independence. India assisted the process of decolonisation in Africa. India’s success in having attained independence through peaceful and non-violent mechanisms also encouraged the Africans to look for support from India. The legacy of Gandhi in Africa and his experimentation of Satyagraha and its resultant success for India strengthened this bond. Nehru played a critical role in fostering close ties and gave open support to Africans against colonisation. Moreover, Africa was also one part of the world which had not fallen into the ideological divisions occasioned by the Cold War, and became, for India, a region to assert power politics through NAM.
Case Study India and Its Attitude Against Racism South Africa was an important trading partner to India during the times of the British Raj. In 1946, South Africa came out with a Ghetto Act which aimed to aggregate resistant colonies in South Africa as per racial differences. This move irked India, and in 1946 itself, the interim Prime Minister of India, Nehru, took up the issue of the Ghetto Act in the UN by invoking article 10 and 14 of the UN Charter. Despite flourishing trade, India decided to cut ties with South Africa after its insistence on maintaining status quo. India not only broke off its diplomatic ties with South Africa but also did not revive the same till 1994, when apartheid in South Africa officially ended.
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The case of South Africa provided the necessary ammunition to India to build a constructive Indian foreign policy towards Africa based on its opposition to all other racial regimes in that continent. Thus, Indian policy in Africa introduced anti-racialism as a new tool along with anti-colonialism and anti-imperialism. India taking up the fight against apartheid in the UN in 1964 also resonated well amongst Africans, all the while India’s intense and sole focus being on non-violent modes of protest. India advanced support to Africa against colonialism but it did not insist on fixing a date to end colonialism in Africa. This upset many African leaders as they deemed that India may not be serious about supporting the African struggle against colonialism. Things began to change for India domestically after the 1962 war. Firstly, after the war, India became busier to counter an aggressive China at every forum. In contrast to the precepts of non-violence championed by India, China, on the other hand, preached armed struggle amongst Africans. This appealed more to some African leaders who were not happy with the results that the slow approach advocated by India brought about. For instance, Algeria, a French Colony in Africa, resorted to an armed struggle against France. Due to all these reasons, support for India gradually began to decline amongst the African nations. The decline was visible prominently after the death of Nehru. Support for China began to grow and China began to make inroads into the African territory. The two case studies ahead aptly summarise the decline of support for India.
Case Study The NAM Summit fiasco (Cairo, 1964) After the death of Nehru, the NAM summit held in Cairo, Egypt was led by Lal Bahadur Shastri. During the Summit, India wanted a resolution by members urging China on renouncing the use of force. There was hardly any support from African nations for this cause. Similarly towards the end of the Summit, India wanted a resolution compelling China not to take the nuclear route. India thought that, due to its disarmament credentials, there would be support for it from the African states, but initially only Cyprus supported it. This clearly signalled a situation of declining support for India amongst the African nations. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Case Study India and East Africa East Africa was one such area where there was a sizeable presence of the Indian diaspora. India always had close relations with this part of the continent. Nehru wanted to support East Africa against colonialism and sent his trusted aide, Apa Saheb Bala Saheb Pant, a respected Gandhian, writer, freedom fighter and diplomat, as India’s ambassador to East Africa. His home had become a nerve centre for all efforts coordinated against colonialism. The British were alarmed upon seeing this. They pressurised Nehru to recall Apa Saheb Pant. Nehru was forced to recall Pant, leaving the East Africans disillusioned. This again created a strain on India’s relations with East Africa. The next phase (1970’s to 1990’s) began with India opening its relations with Africa due to its historical connect, bolstered by a common colonial legacy. However certain circumstances and issues ended up in creating a strain for India’s relationship. The decline in Indian popularity encouraged China to make inroads. As the African decolonisation was completed, the African nations were looking for a role model for development. India made strategies to regain the lost path, using NAM as a tool to rework its relationship with Africa. To seize the new opportunity in Africa, from 1970s, NAM became economy-oriented and India was in a place where it could flex its muscle because domestically things were in better order. The Green Revolution had succeeded in improving the food security situation. A military conflict with Pakistan succeeded in India’s favour in 1971. India, then, decided to become economically assertive in Africa. The most important policy, however, was with respect to the Indian diaspora. During the Nehruvian era, Nehru insisted that the diaspora of India in Africa should place interests of the host nations they reside in over and above their own interests. More so, due to strategic concerns of the NAM, India gave less preference to the needs of the diaspora at that time.
During the second phase of reconnect (1970s till the end of the Cold War), the importance of the Indian diaspora increased. The success of India’s Peaceful Nuclear Explosion in 1974 also contributed to the rise of India’s international image from 1970s. India began to use NAM Summits to economically integrate diplomacy with Africa and focussed on strengthening the South–South Cooperation (SSC). In 1970, at the NAM Conference in Lusaka, India outlined its new approach for Africa. India encouraged Africa to undertake vigorous domestic growth and pledged technological and economic support in this endeavour to strengthen the idea of SSC. India encouraged its Heads of Missions in Africa to focus on economic assistance to Africa and told the diplomats to promote economic engagement. A special role for the diaspora was envisaged in this by the new relationship as Indira Gandhi called upon the Indian Diaspora to act as ambassadors of India. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Case Study Reconnecting to the Diaspora and Kenya With a renewed focus on the diaspora from the 1970s, India and Kenya, in 1990, established the Africa–India Development Association. Apart from boosting bilateral economic engagement, the association aimed at integrating the Indian diaspora in the economic life of Kenya. This reflects the new importance attached to the diaspora acting as a bridge in the relations between the two nations. This renewed thrust gave India an opportunity to re-establish its link with Africa. Its economic diplomacy, however, was certainly not as aggressive as that of Western powers. Whatever assistance India gave was limited but had a positive impact in the African thought process as all assistance was provided without any conditionality, and driven with an intention of helping Africans grow.
Case Study India and SWAPO Diplomacy The Namibian territory was under the control of South Africa. The South Africans continued their illegal rule. When the matter of the illegal rule of South Africa in Namibia reached the International Court of Justice in 1972, the court deferred the decision of ending or termination of South Africa rule. In 1982, after enormous deliberation, India proposed a global level meeting and accorded full diplomatic status to South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO), while also providing it monetary and material assistance. In 1990, Namibia gained independence, which opened up diplomatic relations again. In 1986, India, at the NAM summit in Harare, established the AFRICA fund which acted as material assistance by India in the fight against Apartheid in South Africa and Namibia. The economic engagement continued with Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Ghana re-established its ties more aggressively with Africa and continued to deepen the engagement in the post-Cold War period.
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India’s engagement in the post-Cold War period owes its base to its Cold War engagement where energy concerns dominated. Economic diplomacy pushed the relationship. India realised the importance of Africa to ensure energy security in the future. In 2017, India organised the Fourth India-Africa Hydrocarbons Conference. The conference again provided India an opporunity to to showcase its expertise in oil exploration, oil refining and drilling technology. The new strategy of India’s engagement with Africa is rightly called as ABBA- Africa for Bharat and Bharat for Africa.
SIGNIFICANCE OF AFRICA AND KEY DRIVERS OF INDIA’S AFRICA POLICY The significance of Africa for India can be summed up in one word—OIL where O stands for oil, I for investment and L for Location. All the three factors above, that have garnered significance in Indian Foreign Policy after the Cold War, shall be elaborated upon in the sections related to trade and piracy. The time that the Cold War ended was also the time when Indian economy made a transition to an open economy. To sustain the open economy, India needed oil, which it already had from its supply from the Middle East. Over a period of time, as India diversified its import basket, Africa came in the picture. India began to forge oil based relations in Africa for energy security. India intends to obtain ownership in oil blocks in Africa. This strategy of going for equity oil is any day better than buying oil from open spot market because ownership in an oil block gives India a very deep exposure of the African markets. For India, Africa is a rising continent and offers multiple opportunities for our private sector, which can help bring India and Africa closer to each other. The location of Africa is strategic as it helps India to connect to Central and South Americas through the Cape of Good Hope and to West Asia through the African Maghreb. There are many drivers to India’s Africa Policy. First, we need to understand that India’s intention is not only limited to harnessing African resources but goes much beyond. India has always kept it clear that due to our historical relations with Africa, it is in our interests to assist the entire African block in overall development. While assisting the African development process, India does not follow the white man’s burden approach, but rather intends to share its own knowledge and developmental experiences with Africa https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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for the mutual benefit of both. Since the time of Nehru till the present, India has initiated multiple programmes in its bid to aid to African development. A brief mention of the programmes will ease our understanding of India’s foreign policy towards Africa. (1) I.T.E.C programme: The acronym stands for Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation. The Nehruvian foreign policy envisaged the idea of ‘one world,’ which envisaged an interdependent world where countries cooperate in socio-economic and development well-being. After independence, India received tremendous assistance from international agencies and forums (for example India played an important role in UNCTAD) in its developmental endeavour. India thereby reached an understanding that it would be important for India to share the development lessons and its experiences with other nations. Nehru had this dream of ensuring that other developing countries learn from India’s own learning. This envisaged India to position itself as a trainer for the developmental need of other Third World Countries (TWC).
Keeping this in mind, on 15th September 1964, India launched this bilateral initiative for Africa called ITEC. India envisaged giving training to other countries for their overall development. For Africa, ITEC had two parts. As of now, ITEC as a programme continues to be one of the most important diplomatic tools for India abroad. Second, ITEC is now multilateral in nature and is linked to initiatives under the ASEAN. Third, the ITECis managed by the Development Partnership Administration Division, a division in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). (2) South–South Cooperation (SSC): We have already mentioned SSC and India’s economic diplomacy earlier. Let us develop an insight on SSC in this section, as it stands slightly outside the purview of economic diplomacy. The origin of SSC goes back to Bandung Conference in 1955. In the conference, the African nations decided to initiate a partnership with each other at the development level. Since 1961, this partnership became a part of the NAM. Initially it had two components, namely, technical cooperation amongst developing countries and economic cooperation amongst developing countries. The idea was that the participating countries shall undertake developmental cooperation which would involve multiple stakeholders including national governments, civil societies, public–private partnerships and individuals. It envisaged the sharing of knowledge, developmental experiences, technical assistance and so forth. India always believed that North–South https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Cooperation is important and it would act as a supplement to South–South Cooperation. India approached SSC without any conditionality, and with full respect for the sovereignty of the other participating countries. In contrast, economic diplomacy is an economic engagement by countries for self-benefit through trade. In fact, SSC is also different from North–South Cooperation as SSC is a demand-driven, voluntary, horizontal programme with no conditions attached. In the 21st century, India, under SSC, promotes sustainable development, inclusive growth, infrastructure and energy as goals. India assists Africa in SSC in all the parameters above.
(3) Pan Africa e-Network Project: Since 1990s, India has made tremendous progress in providing education and health in remote areas through developments in the ICT. In 2004, APJ Abdul Kalam, while addressing the Pan African Parliament, envisioned satellite based connectivity with all African nations to assist them in health and education. The Indian government used the idea to initiate Pan Africa eNetwork Project. The government established a huge network to provide services in consultations with Telecom Consultants India limited. The project was officially inaugurated in 2010.
(4) TEAM-9 Initiative: In 2004, the Indian government launched the TechnoEconomic Approach for Africa India Movement. This is a regional initiative exclusively meant for eight West African States. India feels the need to establish a connect with West Africa as it’s a resource-rich region. India, through TEAM–9, intends to help development in this resource-rich but underdeveloped region with assistance for infrastructure and low-cost technology. The aim here is to provide assistance to specific projects and give a thrust to the private sector of India so as to promote trade. India has earmarked 500 million dollars line of credit here. The West African region does not have large Indian diaspora but the Gulf of Guinea is certainly a new hotspot of oil in Africa. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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(5) India–Africa Forum Summit (IAFS): Continental level engagements with Africa is not new for India. The origin of such interactions go back to 1993, when Japan initiated the first ever Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD). This was followed by China initiating the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). On similar lines, to open up continental level engagement, India launched its first ever IAFS in 2008 in New Delhi. The forum concluded with the New Delhi Declaration which reaffirmed the shared vision of vibrancy and resurgence in India–Africa relations. The declaration set an agenda for India and Africa to collaborate on sustainable development, climate change and UN reforms. Subsequently, a second such summit was organised in 2011. The second IAFS was held in the Ethiopian Capital, Addis Ababa in 2011. The Addis Ababa Declaration adopted anew cooperative framework based on capacity building, peace and security. India envisaged the creation of institutions like the Indian Institute of Technology and the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade in Africa. In the second IAFS, India also committed to creating a two-million-dollar fund for the African Union Mission in Somalia to curb piracy. The third IAFS was held from 25th to 28th October in 2015. The third IAFS is unique in multiple aspects. The first aspect is the issue of participation in the IAFS. This is because, in 2006, the African Union (AU) in the city of Banjul (capital of Gambia)announced the Banjul Formula. According to the Banjul Formula, (adopted in 2006), India would extend an invitation to 15 African Head of the States to participate in the India-Africa Forum Summit which would include five participating states of NEPAD (New Economic Partnership for African Development—A programme of African Union to seek global support for the development of Africa) programme, 8 member states to be identified from Regional Economic Communities of African Union and the Chairperson of the African Union Commission. These 15 nations would participate in IAFS. In the First IAFS, there was a participation by 14 states, while in the Second IAFS, there were 11 states that participated. In IAFS-3, India decided to do away with limited participation (as per the Banjul Formula) and invited all 54 Head of the States from Africa. This was done because India had decided to launch the ‘Outreach to Africa Programme’ in the third session of the IAFS. Second, the IAFS–3 opened up on the cultural note. The opening ceremony of the summit saw India showcasing Bhangra and Yoga. The two showcased India’s soft power export and asserted India’s emergence on the global scene and signified a resurgent Africa. For the first time in the history succeeding the Cold War, India organised a successful event, hosting 54 Nations at one place. The IAFS–3 concluded with the Delhi Declaration – 2015, which articulated the India–Africa relationship as ‘Partners in Progress’ and pledged to work ‘towards a dynamic and transformative development agreement’. India officially pledged support to the African Agenda 2063 and committed resources to Africa to help achieve goals of the Agenda. India also announced 10 billion dollar line of credit for projects, along with thirty thousand scholarships. What also makes the Delhi Declaration 2015 unique is that the areas in which Africa and India are going to collaborate were broadened to now incorporate solar technology, food security, blue economy, rural housing, skull development, use of social networks to enhance people-to-people cooperation and sustainable development. Delhi Declaration has also adopted a monitoring mechanism to implement the agendas https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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envisaged. They have also adopted the India–Africa framework for strategic cooperation. The next summit that is IAFS–4 is planned after 5 years (that is in 2020).
Case Study Western Sahara, Morocco and IAFS–3 in 2015 The region of Western Sahara was under the colonial control of Spain till 1975. Spain liberated Western Sahara in 1975. Immediately after this, Morocco and Mauritania began to claim West Sahara as it is a region rich in phosphate and has the largest phosphate reserves in the world. Over a period of time, Mauritania gradually went out of the picture but Morocco did not. In 1976, Sahrawi formed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic and established it as a sovereign state under the Polisario Front. In 1985, India gave recognition to Saharavi Republic as it thought Polisario Front was fighting a struggle for self-determination. However, as the UN took over efforts to resolve the issue, India, in 2000, withdrew its recognition. This recognition of SADR by India had created a deep resentment in Morocco–India relations as Morocco considered SADR a part of its territory. In IAFS–3, India had invited 54 African nations including Morocco with no representation officially from SADR/Western Sahara.
Case Study India Honed Diplomatic Skills at the 3rd IAFS The strategy of India at the 3 IAFS was very unique. Firstly, in order to invite all 54 African states, India designed personal invitations and extended them to African Head of States. Indian Ministers travelled all over to African states and extended the invitation to the leaders to invite them for the 3 IAFS on behalf of people of India. At the summit, it was the suave diplomat who managed it all. India decided to use the 3 IAFS as a platform to train its young IFS officers with invaluable training on hosting the massive event. The MEA decided to pull all young IFS officers from all over the globe for providing a mega on the job training. The event gave many young IFS officers an invaluable experience of a lifetime. rd
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INDIA–AFRICA TRADE AND COMMERCE Africa is a land of resources. As per estimates, Africa is endowed with 10% of the world’s oil and 40% of the world’s gold. Different regions of Africa have different resources and the continent, in totality, is beneficial for India in multiple aspects. As the economy of Africa grows, there will be new demand for projects and goods. Indian private sector, in this regard, intends to play a key role in meeting African needs. Before we study the trade dynamics, it is important to briefly have a look at different regions in Africa.
Important Name of commercial centres the region for India Western Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Africa coast Southern Angola and South Africa Africa Northern Egypt, Tunisia Africa Eastern Kenya, Mozambique, Africa Mauritius, Seychelles Central Chad, Congo, Uganda, Africa Malawi, Rwanda
Core competencies of the Miscellaneous commercial centre and region information
Crude oil
Piracy Problem
Crude oil (Angola only) Non-oil Market access is absent like Gold, Diamonds, Steel Arab spring and Oil, Chemicals and fertilisers political instability Need to augment Leather products, bags and islands are strategic importance skill and technics Transport and Vegetables and coffee reach is an issue
Case Study Global Economic Crisis and India–Africa Trade Scenarios Beyond 2017-18 The US crisis of 2008 and EU crisis of 2011 have affected the entire global economy. Africa has been one of the important suppliers of oil internationally. Due to the crises at the global level, the demand for oil has decreased. As the demand abroad declined, https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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African economies had also been affected. However, many African nations have used the crises as opportunities. In order to ensure that domestic employment is not affected, many African nations have opened up sectors for cooperation with foreign players. It is with this regard that India stands to play a role. For instance, Kenya, Ghana, Ivory Coast and other nations have decided to invite investments in small and medium Enterprises, infrastructure, modernisation of agriculture and alternative energy. All these sectors present umpteen opportunities for India. As learned previously, India, in the third IAFS (2015) has committed assistance to Africa for solar technology, food security, rural housing and skill development. Even at the bilateral level, with the visits of Indian President and Vice President to Namibia, Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Tunisia, India has committed to continued support. In order to promote trade, India has used instruments like lines of credit, Focus Africa programme and Duty Free Trade Preference Systems. The CII and FICCI from India also play an important role in this regard. They regularly organise platforms in consultation with African forums, giving India an opportunity to leverage its private sector. The private sector appropriately uses these forums to create business in Africa. A brief mention here of the Duty Free Quota Free (DF QF) market access; the Focus Africa Programme and Indian firms in Africa will aid our understanding. The Doha round of negotiations in 2001 for the first time envisaged DFQF market access to Least Developed Countries (LDC). It was only in 2005, in the Ministerial Conference (of WTO) in Hong Kong, that the decision was taken that the developed countries would be allowed to undertake DFQF market access to LDCs. On the sidelines of the first IAFS in 2008, India went on to formally initiate Duty Free Trade Preference Scheme (DFTPS), designed to boost bilateral trade. The scheme has got further impetus in its effort to boost trade after its modification in 2014. The measures by India have further strengthened South–South cooperation. In 2002–2003, India also launched its Focus Africa Programme (FAP). This programme is underway in select twenty-four African nations. Within this programme, heads of the Indian Missions in these 24 nations act as commercial sales agents. The diplomatic machinery does extensive research and outlines opportunities available for Indian exporters. The Indian exporters then undertake market access and market development. This helps India to boost its exports in Africa and opens up opportunities for the private sector of India. A lot of Indian companies are doing tremendous business in Africa. The role of private sector is analysed better when we study bilateral relations but broadly the picture is as below:
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Case Study 52nd African Development Bank (AfDB) Summit—Gandhinagar-2017 In the section above, we have argued that India and Africa have witnessed deep economic interaction in the recent times. India is playing a catalytic role in African development by partnering with AfDB. India decided to hold the 52 AfDB Summit in 2017 in India. As per the projection of IMF, Indian economy is going to grow at 7.7% in 2018-19 due to some bold initiatives like demonetization, GST and opening up of Pharmacy and Defense sectors. Africa is a 2.2 Trillion Dollar market offering India tremendous opportunities in transport and infrastructure sectors. India in the Summit in 2017 has decided to work with Africa in these two sectors. This will give India an opportunity to enhance its overall exports. India has initiated a Namaskar Africa programme to showcase its domestic strengths in the sectors where it can assist Africa. The core idea of the Namaskar Africa programme is to assist Africa in achieving integrated open markets. The health and infrastructure are likely to get a boost due to Asia-Africa Growth Corridor envisaged. In the Summit, India and Africa have decided to identify High-5 areas of cooperation. They inlcude Energy, Agriculture, E-Governance, Industrialisation and Health and pharmaceuticals. nd
Case Study Education Diplomacy as Future India–Africa Connector Africa has been receiving tremendous support from UN for its Millennium Development Goals and Education for All initiative. The focus of both is on universalisation of primary education and reduction of poverty and gender disparities. Due to special attention, Africa has made progress in school education but is struggling to arrange gainful employment for its school passouts since Africa lacks institutions for skill development and higher education. It is in this context that India steps in. India has been focussing on skill development and scholarships in Africa. The prime interest of India is to skill the youth of Africa and enable them to play an aggressive role in the future development of the continent. In the second IAFS, in 2011, India entered the fray on continuous skill development through capacity building initiatives by building IIT and IIFT. India had, by 2015, provided more than 20,000 scholarships for higher education. The third IAFS, in 2015, has envisaged 30,000 scholarships for the future. Considering India has made noticeable https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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advancement and tapped the skill and higher education market, it would be imminent for India at this stage to enhance this effort to become a global leader. The MEA needs to make this area its special focus and announce a properly planned HRD policy for African markets. India has decided to play a special role in enhancing the educational skill set of the Africans. India has not only invited African students to India for higher education but also offers courses with a special focus on skilling the African youth through vocational training. To ensure that India is able to attract the global student community, India needs to focus upon four things: 1. Enhance the university curriculam capabilities to support cultural diversity in university campuses. 2. At the diplomatic level, enhance academic partnerships. 3. Ensure that the African students who come to India get hands on training in Small and Medium Enterprises in India as part of academic partnerships. 4. Design special curriculams on climate change for African students
Case Study Climate Change as Future India–Africa Connector The climate problems are not restricted by national boundaries but are global in nature. The solution to such problems also needs must be transnational. The situation of Africa is that of being one of lowest contributors of pollutants but one of the biggest sufferers of climate change. As Africa is resource-rich, the depletion of natural resources causes the continent immense anxiety. Degradation of land and environment has been at the core of a majority of the conflicts seen in Chad, SudanDarfur and Ethiopia. The drying up of the Nile, Orange, Zambezi and Kunene has sparked violent clashes amongst groups. If the sea levels raise, Lagos and Banjul, along with Seychelles, Mauritius, Reunion and Madagascar would be threatened. Climate change offers India a lot of opportunities to assist Africa in mitigating these challenges and helping the peace process. India has committed to the development of solar technology in IAFS–3 (2015). India may, in future, also plan assistance in wind and tidal energy. This can help the private sector of India to fetch more opportunities. Due to fluctuations related to climate change in India and the rise in demand for agricultural commodities in 2015–16, a lot of private firms have started purchasing land in Africa. The land in Africa is under state control and is far cheaper than land in India. The private sector has undertaken mechanisation of agriculture in Africa to tide over climate change and supply agriculture commodities. From June 2016, the Government of India has undertaken cultivation in Africa to mitigate domestic food shortages.
Case Study Technology Transfers and Impact The discussions about trade and history enabled us to learn that India’s economic footprint in Africa has increased since the Cold War. India has adequately shared technology with Africa leading to growth in the continent. The Pan- Africa ENetwork project is one of the most important contributors to its development. At the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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level of health, Apollo hospital in New Delhi is now fully connected with the International and Medical and Technical University as also the Military hospital in Dar-es-Salaam. Airtel has already launched its telecom service in Africa and is one of the biggest telecom service providers in South Africa. Technology, coupled with the skill development initiatives undertaken by India, has left its unique mark in the African continent. Despite various kinds of developmental assistance provided by India, some of the key obstacles in enhancing trade with Africa are as follows: ■ Political instability in Africa and absence of stable regimes and rule of law. ■ Corruption in African governments acting as a deterrent for private firms. ■ Lack of regulatory framework and regime architecture. ■ Lack of access to institutional finance to promote trade. ■ Logistical concerns and poor connectivity in the hinterland. India and Africa can explore future relationships in trade, especially in healthcare and automobile. Africa presents numerous opportunities for cooperation in healthcare due to presence of widespread diseases like HIV, TB and Malaria, and so on. Africa not only lacks effective healthcare delivery but also has scarce public resources. The Indian pharmacy sector has recorded vibrant growth. It has not only shown noticeable progress in generic drugs but also quality medicines for TB, Malaria, and so forth. This is one area where India pharma sector can envisage a future market.
As the economy of Africa improves and people have more income, the demand for automobiles will increase. Maruti, Tata and Mahindra are already household names in Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon. This is yet another area where, if certain bottlenecks are removed, India can emerge as an important player.
DIPLOMATIC ISSUES RELATED TO SECURITY AND PIRACY Since independence, India has been consistent in sending Peace keeping Forces (PKF) to assist the UN in the process of decolonisation. The decisions of participation in UN https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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activities through the PKF not only helps India achieve its foreign policy goal of maintaining peace but also increases India’s prestige. In a very strategic sense, India does not achieve any goals related to national interest in the purest sense, as the PKF undertakes no combat roles on the ground. The PKF is primarily responsible for peace keeping. The participation gives Indian agencies exposure to the different kinds of conflict, which provides important lessons for logistics and military diplomacy. The participation of the PKF is overall in sync with Article 51 of our Constitution which aims to promote peace and security at the international level. There is a Permanent Mission of India (PMI) in New York at the UN office. An officer of the rank of colonel in the Indian army receives requests by the UN for the PKF. The PMI forwards the application to the MEA. The file is then forwarded after clearance at MEA to the Ministry of Defence. A triservices board under the Director General of Staff reviews the request, takes the necessary decision and hands the file back to the MEA. The file is then presented by the MEA to the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) and after approval, the MEA announces the decision to send forces in the Parliament. Thus, the decision to send the PKF is at the sole discretion of the Union Executive. Till date, India has sent PKFs in Namibia, Mozambique, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, Congo and Sudan. In Africa, the PKF focuses primarily on peace and humanitarian assistance. For example, in Congo, our officials have provided medical treatment in the UN hospitals. One of the most important contributions of Indian PKF in Africa has been the promotion of gender equality. In 2004, India stationed its first ever full women’s battalion of 125 (RPF) officers in Liberia.
Case Study Future of Peace Keeping Mission (PKM) As argued above, India is a key contributor to PKM in Africa. In the recent times there is a debate if the Peace Keeping model, funded by the West and manned by the states of Asia is sustainable or not? Questions are arising if India gains anything out of such a model or not? The PKM model is becoming unsustainable because African countries that have manpower to protect themselves are not consulted in the process of designing a PKM and are deprived of an opportunity to use there own manpower. The Asian state that is getting the responisbility for the mission is also not consulted by the Western power in the mission design. The Western powers design the missions and prescribe the missions to Asian states. In this scenario, India can set up a new forum with Africa to discuss issues related to high level defense diplomacy. Under a new India-Africa Defense dialogue, India can enhance the military preparedness of the African continent by training African manpower. This kind of training by India, that has considerable skills and expertise in problems like terrorism, civil unrest and insurgency etc, can open a new chapter in the India and Africa relationship. Piracy as an exercise has been flourishing in the Horn of Africa region. It is primarily https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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based in Somalia from where it spreads out in the seas affecting many nations in the Indian Ocean. Somalia is an easy base for piracy due to the absence of a stable government in the country. The US office of naval intelligence has undertaken a deep study to understand the modus operandi of Somali pirates. The office is of the view that Somali pirates undertake piracy mainly for ransom money. The pirates have a wellestablished system of informers in foreign ports. When the ship passes through the Horn of Africa, the pirates, through well-established, specialised teams on ground and sea, launch pirate attacks. The pirate teams on the sea have in-depth knowledge of the sea and possess other maritime skills. As the pirates in Somalia have established a good network with terrorist groups operating in the Maghreb region, availability of arms is not a difficult task. Unlike pirates in the seas of South East Asia who also loot the goods from the merchant vessel and sell it in black markets, Somali pirates are only interested in taking ships hostage and demanding ransom. The merchant firms operating vessels in the region pay ransom money to get the ships released and this emboldens the pirates. At times, Somali pirates disguise themselves as coast guard and naval agencies and are able to fool the merchant vessels.
Case Study Why is Piracy Rampant in Somalia? In the early modern times, the territory of Somaliland was occupied by three colonial players. One part was occupied by British, the second by Italy and the third by the French. The part occupied by the French became a new state called Djibouti. The rest of Somaliland gained independence in 1960. In 1960, there was a coup by Siad Barre wherein took over the control of the state. Opposition rebels began to fight against Siad Barre. Two prominent opposition groups emerged, namely, the Somalia National Movement (SNM) and the United Somalia Congress (USC). The two parties, SNM and USC, started controlling the northern and southern territories and succeeded in ousting Siad Barre in 1991. Despite the ousting of Barre, no united government emerged as factionalism grew to the extent where tribal warlords began to assert control over their clans, creating a situation of complete anarchy. The tribal clans turned to piracy to sustain themselves. Absence of a stable centralised government since 1991 has aggravated stability issues making Somalia politically fragile. Due to rise in piracy, the cost of transporting goods has increased. The ships have started circumventing the area in favour of a longer route in deep sea to avoid piracy. Shipping firms have increased security on board of ships. The insurance firms have hiked https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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the premiums. All this have led to an increase in the cost of trade. Nations have resorted to resolutions at the UN level. These UN level resolutions have legalised naval presence in Somali water. Countries have stationed their navies to protect the sea lanes of communication. India has also likewise increased its naval presence in the Horn of Africa. India has urged the UN to track the ransom money being paid by help of international agencies like Interpol. India has been advocating that all Joint Anti-Piracy Operations (JAPO) be brought under the UN ambit and domestically, all nations create laws to criminalise piracy. Indian Navy has been protecting sea lines of communication since 2008. The Indian coast guard has established new district head offices in Kavarati and in Minicoy. Through naval presence in Mauritius, Seychelles and Maldives, India has been able to keep the pirates in check. India has also clarified in an annual report released by the Ministry of Defence that the Indian Ocean region is central to Indian interests and piracy in the region is a cause of serious concern, to combat which the Indian Navy is ready to play a critical role in the region. The long-term solution lies in international collaboration to criminalise ransom payment and undertake adequate social engineering to create a unified society in Somalia. A stable government, skills to the population and creation of jobs in the fishing industry can help in a big way in future.
DIPLOMATIC POLICY OF CHINA IN AFRICA One of India’s main competitors in Africa is China. Our aim in this part is to analyse Chinese presence in Africa and scrutinise the Chinese approach in the continent. Chinese presence in Africa goes back to the Cold War times. It was during Mao’s era that the Chinese began to promote armed struggle in Africa against decolonisation, which appealed to many African states. This also gave China an opportunity to provide economic aid for decolonised nations, thereby making inroads in these states. However, the Chinese engagement in Africa emerges aggressively after the end of Cold War. As Chinese economy began to grow by the 1990s, it also began to search for resources. Africa, being a resource-rich region, was a natural choice for China. China also found Africa to be a favourable market for its goods. In order to develop Africa as a sustained supplier of resources and a market for goods, China began to undertake creation of infrastructure in Africa so that it gives China an easy route to transport resources back home. Apart from this, China has been giving a lot of economic aid to Africa. However, many are dissatisfied with the aggressive Chinese resource-centric policy towards African. The scholars assert that the Chinese model in Africa is based on its greed for resources. A simple algorithm lies at the heart of its policy: China goes to an African nation, sets up industries and factories, exports Chinese labour to Africa, digs out resources from the nation, brings the resources back using infrastructure they have created to connect the industry to the port. De Soysa (a scholar) remarks that in this entire Chinese model, the African country does not stand to gain anything except very little pecuniary profit in the form of taxation. The lives of ordinary Africans in that country do not change as the people receive no skill development from China so that they are absorbed in the industry. This leads to a lot of disenchantment in the local people, leading ultimately to a https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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kind of hatred against the Chinese presence. However, the state, instead of supporting the people, supports the Chinese in their endeavours, ultimately becoming a rentier state. (A rentier state is a state which derives all or a substantial portion of its national revenues from the rent of indigenous resources to external clients.)This ultimately weakens institutional development in Africa. China has, as per its ‘going out strategy,’ tried to link its domestic development to its global aspirations. The going out strategy is reflected well in Africa where China has diplomatic relations with more than 48 African nations. The basic strategy is to give Africa aid, and undertake trade and diplomacy to establish a market for goods. We also need to remember that Africans have an inclination for China as, firstly, African states are motivated by the Chinese state led economic development model that has made them a regional hegemonic power. They take pride in how China, under Deng Xiaoping, started from a scratch to reach where it is today. This state directed capitalism, despite China being a communist regime, has earned it respect in Africa. Secondly, the Africans to some extent are disillusioned with lack of development of their domestic economies despite proximate ties with West and Europe since a very long time. But the most important connecting factor between Africa and China is how the Africans are portrayed. The West has always been pessimistic about the future of Africa, partially due to deeply entrenched habits of racial profiling a feeling of racial superiority. For example, in one of the covers of The Economist magazine, it went on to brand Africa as a hopeless continent. In contrast, China has always appreciated African dynamism, winning a lot of confidence amongst Africans. The Chinese model is unique in Africa in the sense that China allows poorly performing corporates backhome to take up opportunities in Africa. If a corporate has not been performing well, the Chinese government would encourage that company to reemerge and prove its worth by giving it support in exploring the African market. It has been seen that, with state support, these companies are able to re-emerge powerfully. This kind of an exercise also boosts the domestic corporate sector. The networking for corporate sectors is enhanced further by interaction undertaken by China at the Forum for China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). All this gives China an opportunity to play a deeper role in Africa and gain the needed diplomatic weight at international forums.
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Chinese Naval Base in Africa and Implications on India China has establsihed the first ever naval base in Africa in Djibouti. This is an attempt by China to enhance its international clout. The base is located in the Indian Ocean and is percieved by Indian strategists as an attempt to encircle India as a part of Chinese String of Pearls Alliance network (which already includes naval bases in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka). In the recent times, Chinese are also investing in ports in Sri Lanka (Hambantota port) and Pakistan (Gwadar port) and these ports are begin designed to accommodate naval vessels of China. This means that there will be an enhanced naval presence of China proximate to India. Though China has asserted that it would be using the Djibouti naval base for anti-piracy and humanitarian relief operations, but, India’s R&AW has clearly asserted that port will have permanent Chinese troop presence (of Chinese Marine Corps, nearly one lakh soldiers) also. Thus, such a strong naval presence in Indian Ocean has raised alarm bells in South Block.
FUTURE POLICY FOR INDIA India has harnessed its historical relations with Africa and envisages a bright future ahead. India also acknowledges that Africa is a vibrant continent and the next growth pole in the world (as articulated by former Indian PM Dr. Manmohan Singh). The Indian engagement is beyond resources and spreads well into IT, pharmacy, Agriculture, skill, training and capacity building, and so on. India’s aim is to assist Africa in its overall development, with a larger aim of security and peace with convergence on global issues. In the twenty first century, India has also expanded its footprint aptly in the Indian Ocean owing to new security challenges emerging.
Apart from these, there are a few other areas where India and Africa need to cooperate more which require changes in diplomacy from the Indian side. Some salient points are given below: ■ India needs to firstly articulate a policy on Africa and engage with the continent through a doctrine. ■ India needs to appoint an ambassador of India for Africa in the MEA who would act as a nerve centre for all policies in Africa. ■ India should widen the discussion dynamics at the IAFS level and bring the private sector and the civil society in the IAFS platform rather than restricting it only to government-to-government interactions. ■ It would be best for India if in cooperation with Africa it announces a skill development policy and helps African skill development through quantitative https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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target setting. ■ The MEA can designate the Indian diaspora as unofficial ambassador in its endeavour of soft power export and publicise the good work done in India to mould a framework public opinion. ■ India has to accelerate engagement with Africa by injecting blateralism in the diplomatic processes. This will give India an opportunity to have one on one interaction with African nations. For Example, Morroco in the recent times as initiated a moderate islamic programe which is exclusively designed for tackling radiclisation. India can enhance its cooperation with Morroco at this level. ■ India has to spend more diplomatic capital to popularize the projects it is funding and executing in Africa. For example, in the recent times, after the outbreak of Ebola epidemic, India has emerged as one of the top donors to Africa but our efforts have not received adequate publicity. ■ India needs to evolve a suitable soft policy strategy with Africa that can yield bilateral mutual benefits. For example, India can envisage tie up between Indian Bollywood and Nigerian Nollywood. ■ India can improve direct flight connectivity from India with Africa, which remains very poor till date.
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2 CHAPTER
India and Mauritius Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Basic Background Defence and security diplomacy Commercial diplomacy Analysis of PM Visit to Mauritius
BASIC BACKGROUND The relations between India and Mauritius go back to the 1820s. This was the time period when the British began to take workers and labour from India to work on plantations. In 1834, when slavery was abolished in Britain, the labour began to work as indentured servants. There was also a transfer of skilled labour from India to Mauritius at the time when it became a French Colony. The French demanded skilled carpenter and masons, and many Indians began to work under French. Mahatma Gandhi, on his way to South Africa on ship S.S. Nowshera, halted in Mauritius, making it a historic event. In order to recognise Gandhian Contribution to Africa, Mauritius celebrates 12 March, the date when Gandhi launched Dandi March, as its National Day. India, after its independence, opened up diplomatic relations in Mauritius in 1948, much before Mauritius got independence (Mauritius gained independence from the French in 1968). Over a period of time, Mauritius has gone on to become one of the most valuable and strategic partners of India. The importance is due to multiple reasons, which include proximity to sea lanes of communication to foreign trade and tremendous economic investment flowing from Mauritius to India. Mauritius has a very special place in Indian strategic thought and foreign policy. This is clearly reflected by the fact that Mauritius was the only nonSAARC nation to be invited for the swearing-in ceremony of the new Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014. th
DEFENCE AND SECURITY DIPLOMACY Due to its proximity to sea routes used for trade, India has realised the significance to protect the sea lanes of communication jointly with Mauritius. This has opened up a very deep strategic and defence dimension in the Indo–Mauritius relationship. Considering the strategic significance and geopolitical importance of Mauritius for India, it has over a period of time, invested in enhancing the strategic and defence capabilities of Mauritius. India has deep naval collaboration with Mauritius and regularly undertakes joint naval patrolling and surveillance. India has also taken adequate steps to bolster the counter piracy capabilities of Mauritius by providing it with advanced light helicopters, radar systems and offshore patrolling vehicles. A key component of our defence collaboration is https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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also India providing training to the police force and officers of the Mauritian armed forces.
Case Study India and Mauritius Maritime Security Agreement-2017 In May 2017, Mauritius PM Pravind Jugnauth visited India. In the bilateral talks, India extended 500 Million Dollars Line of Credit to the island state. India has also asserted that as Mauritius is a front line state in the Indian Ocean, it will be the responsibility of India to provide collective maritime security. In order to protect people and ensure economic security, India has agreed to cooperate with Mauritius to prevent conventional and non conventional threats to each other. The Bilateral Mutual Maritime Security Agreement envisages cooperation between the two sides on issues ranging from sea piracy to drug trafficking to illegal fishing and illegal exploration. The National Coast Guard (NCG) of Mauritius has initiated a project for integratd development of its coastal capabilities. The project is called Project Trident. Under the Bilateral Mutual Maritime Security Agreement, India has decided to support the project Trident. During the visit of Pravind, the two sides concluded two MoU’s on research and education in marine sciences and technology and setting up of a civil services college in Mauritius.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY The India–Mauritius relation is not just about defence and trade, but also includes an important economic dimension. Mauritius is one of the top investment destinations to India. India’s economic relations with Mauritius go back to 1982, when the two countries signed a convention for avoidance of double taxation and prevention of fiscal evasion. The idea envisaged in 1982 was that this convention will ease trouble for NRI investors who want to bring money to India through Mauritius to save tax. The treaty clearly stated that if investors routed their investments through Mauritius, they would be exempted from double taxation due to the treaty being in place. As India liberalised its economy in the 1990s, a lot of investors began using the Mauritius route to get tax exemption. Investors, however, began to take advantage of the loopholes in the treaty. Shell companies over a period of time were established to route in the investment. As these loopholes became prominently visible after 2001 stock market scam, the Indian government initiated negotiations to fix the loopholes. Apart from the incoming FII, India is also one the largest trading partners of Mauritius. India has also been extending lines of credit to Mauritius for capacity building and infrastructure. Some of the prominent India funded projects include Jawaharlal Nehru Hospital and Gandhi and Tagore Institutes in Mauritius, to name a few. India-Mauritius trade in 2014-15 was worth around $1.9 billion. India and Mauritius are discussing the possibility of concluding a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation and https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Partnership Agreement (CECPA) . The Comprehensive Economic Cooperation and Partnership Agreement (CECPA) will build upon the India-Mauritius Double Tax Avoidance Agreement (DTAA).
Case Study Operation Lal Dora and R&AW in Mauritius During the 1980s, the PM of Mauritius was a pro-India politician named Anerood Jugnauth. He feared a military coup in Mauritius in 1983 by his opponent Paul Berenger. Anerood asked Indira Gandhi for help. The Indian PM, along with other senior officials, planned a military expedition to Mauritius to help Anerood. An army battalion was moved to Mumbai to be sent to Mauritius. But the operation was aborted at the last minute as the R&AW station chief of Mauritius was able to control the crises through intense negotiations and diplomacy, thereby averting not only a military expedition by India at the height of the Cold War but also political chaos in Mauritius. Surprisingly, Aneroad Jugnauth was the Prime Minister of Mauritius again from 2014–17.
ANALYSIS OF PRIME MINISTERIAL VISIT TO MAURITIUS, 2015 Considering the strategic significance of Mauritius, the Indian PM visited Mauritius in 2015. Before the PM landed, INS Delhi and INS Sarveshak had already ported in Mauritius. The visit of the PM was a significant one as it touched every dimension of India’s relationship to Mauritius, from defence, maritime security to economy to culture. India granted a 500-million-dollar line of credit to Mauritius. The PM committed Mauritius assistance in diversification of its economy by support to oil, finance and ICT development. The most important dimension was that of maritime security. India advocated that all maritime conflicts be resolved through international laws in place. India also made a strong commitment to support security and growth for all in the regions of the Indian Ocean. The Indian PM also commissioned MCGS Barracuda, which is a patrol vehicle built in India and gifted to Mauritius.
Case Study India–Mauritius Youth Cooperation 2015 —YUVA One of the key features of our growing relationship is the rising importance attached to the youth playing the role of a bridge between the two countries. YUVA or Youth United to Voluntary Action is an organisation deeply entrenched in Mauritius, offering innovation through youth exchange. It has mainly focussed on encouraging the youth of Mauritius to focus on social awareness and benefit for all in society. During the PM’s visit to Mauritius in 2015, he called upon YUVA, which also signified the growing importance to youth acting as a bridge in the relationship. A taste of cultural relationship was visible in the bilateral visit when the Indian PM laid foundation stone of the World Hindi Secretariat building in Phoenix, followed by his participation in a prayer ceremony at Ganga Talao, which is a prominent Hindu shrine dedicated to Lord Shiva. The PM also spoke about the enormous contribution of Mauritius https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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to Hindi literature and how Mauritius has contributed to enriching Indian language and culture. Various MoUs were also bilaterally concluded which included the MoU on Ocean economy done to deepen security cooperation, MoU on culture envisaging increased people to people contacts for 2015–18 and MoU on popularisation of traditional medicine as core component to boost cultural ties.
Case Study India and Agalega Islands—Strategic Asset Development, 2015 The Agalega islands are almost 110 km away from Mauritius, close by to Southern coast of India. The island has a very small population but the presence of Indian diaspora is quite evident. The islands are very strategically located. In 2015, during the Indian PM’s visit to Mauritius, the government of Mauritius had granted permission to India to undertake infrastructure development rights on the Agalega islands. As per the agreement, India will refurbish an existing airstrip in Agalega and develop a new jetty. There is a possibility of India installing radars in Agalega. Though the bagging of IDR does not mean that India is going to develop Agalega as a naval base, as a purely strategic investment, this certainly helps India to increase its footprint in the Indian Ocean. Another crucial aspect of the Indian PM’s visit to Mauritius in 2015 was that he was able to successfully give a push to restarting the negotiations for Double Taxation Avoidance Treaty. After the PM’s visit, economists and diplomats were back on the table and finally in May 2016, almost one year after the PM’s visit, the negotiators were able to push through the deal. The old treaty with Mauritius now stands to be amended. As per the amendment, any investment coming to India now cannot enter without paying a tax on sale of shares if the money is being routed through Mauritius. This amendment and the respective clauses of the treaty do not apply on investment being routed through Mauritius till 1st April, 2017. In fact, investment coming in till March, 2019 also has to pay only half rates. The amendment also aptly addresses the issue of shell companies. Now, any company in Mauritius routing money to India with an operating expenditure of less than 27 lakh rupees shall be designated as a shell company trying to take advantage of the treaty. Overall, we can safely conclude the relationship with Mauritius is not just historical but also strategic and that, in the near future, the relationship is likely to unfold more deeply as India enhances its strategic footprint in the Indian Ocean.
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3 CHAPTER
India and Kenya Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical Background Commercial Diplomacy
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Kenya was a British protectorate and a colony since 1895. Due to the presence of the British, a lot of Indians were taken to Kenya during the colonial period. The Indians were taken by the British for skilled work and trade. As India became independent, it established official diplomatic relations with Kenya, though it was more of a continuity from the past as the British had already established an office of the Commonwealth General in Kenya. Kenya became independent in 1963. At that time, the Indian diaspora in Kenya stood at two per cent of the Kenyan population. The best part about our diaspora in Kenya is that it is not only economically well off, but also acts as an important bridge in the relationship between the two nations today.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY Apart from the diaspora links, India and Kenya have a decent trade-based relationship. In 1981, the two countries concluded a trade agreement and conferred the status of most favoured nation to each other. In 1983, the two countries established a joint trade commission to promote bilateral trade. In February 2015, the 7 India–Kenya Joint Trade Commission meeting was held. In the meeting, both nations presented identified themes of bilateral cooperation. Infrastructure has been identified as a key area of future cooperation in 2015. However, the 7 Trade Commission has also envisaged cooperation in agriculture, horticulture and mining activities. India exports pharmacy products, steel, power transmission equipment to Kenya and receives soda ash, vegetables, tea, leather products and metal from Kenya. In 1989, the two countries have concluded a Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement. th
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In the recent times, the treaty is being renegotiated to make it adaptable to the 21 century trade scenario. India has been also extending lines of credit to Kenya for development and also invites Kenyan students to India for study. A lot of scholarships are given under ITEC and cultural programmes. India also provides a professional course for Kenyan diplomats in India. st
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Due to the sizeable presence of the Indian Diaspora, a lot of Indian companies are present in various sectors in Kenya, such as power transmission and energy. There is prominent presence of Essar energy and Reliance in hydrocarbons while Kirloskar is in power transmission. There is presence of Doctor Reddy and Cipla in Pharmacy and Tata, TVS and Mahindra in automobiles. There is presence of Central Bank of India, HDFC and Bank of India also in the banking sector. In fact, Bank of India has four branches in Kenya. In February 2015, an Indian Engineering Expo was organised in Nairobi. A lot of Indian firms have expressed their desire to invest in three core sectors.
Indian companies are keen to explore the pharmacy sector in Kenya since it offers tremendous scope for pharmacy supplies. Firstly, due to improved life expectancy in Kenya, advancement in access to health has opened up a huge opportunity for Indian pharmacy firms. Secondly, Kenya acts as a base to export medicines to the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and Ethiopia. This again motivates Indian pharmacy players to explore the neighbouring markets. Thus, many Indian companies in pharmacy are hopeful of exploring business elsewhere through Kenya.
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Case Study The Indian PM’s Visit to Kenya in July, 2016 The Indian PM visited Kenya and held talks with Uhuru Kenyatta. India extended 44.95 million dollars line of credit to Kenya for assistance in small industrial development and the textile sector. To strengthen our bonds over healthcare, India has committed to the development of a cancer hospital in Kenya. As Kenya is a maritime state and is also affected by the threats of piracy, the two nations have decided to undertake maritime cooperation. India has committed assistance to Kenya for the development of its economy as also for skill development.
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4 CHAPTER
Indian and Mozambique Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical Diplomacy Defense Diplomacy Commercial and Oil Diplomacy Analysis of Mozambique President’s visit to India Analysis of Indian PM visit to Mozambique
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Mozambique was a colony of Portugal since 1752 and was ruled from Goa for 200 years. In 1962, a party called Frelimo Front of Liberation of Mozambique began its struggle against Portugal and finally succeeded. In its diplomatic relations with Mozambique. India has always had cordial relations which have only taken greater heights in the recent times.
DEFENCE DIPLOMACY Apart from trade and oil based relations, one of the most important areas of our cooperation is defence and maritime cooperation. It was back in 2003 that, on request of Mozambique, India sent naval ships for maritime security in the Maputo coast. India, again on Mozambique’s request, sent naval ships for security during the African Union Summit in 2003 and the World Economic Forum meet in 2004. Since then some of our prominent naval ships, like INS - Ranjit, INS- Delhi, INS Deepak and INS – Teg, have been regular visitors to the coast of Mozambique. Mozambique is one of India’s four most important partners in ocean economy.
In 2011, India and Mozambique concluded an MoU on maritime patrolling and in 2012, concluded an agreement for joint anti-piracy patrolling. Both these agreements have added more depth to our existing maritime engagement. In August, 2015, the President of Mozambique, Filipe Jacinto Nyusi, visited India. During his visit, both sides concluded MoUs on Cooperation on new and renewable energy. Both sides have agreed to enhance naval cooperation and conduct more hydrographic surveys in the region. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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COMMERCIAL AND OIL DIPLOMACY In 2011, Mozambique discovered natural gas. Many analysts view this development positively. It is now accepted that this discovery of natural gas is likely to transform the economy of Mozambique and give it a much-needed thrust. A lot of Indian firms are already doing business in Mozambique in the Hydrocarbon sector.
In the next four years, till 2019, India is planning to pump more money in the oil sector of Mozambique to convert the natural gas into liquefied natural gas. Once the gas is liquefied, it will be easier to transport it. India’s OVL has already purchased 10% stake from Videocon in Rovuma and 10% stake from the US firm Anadarko Petron corporation. In future, India is planning to export the LNG and, once converted into liquefied form, bring the same to India. India is also eyeing Robomo gas reserves in Mozambique for energy security. Both sides, in their MoU, have prioritised research and development (R&D) and technology transfer in solar, wind and geothermal energy.
Apart from this, both have prioritised the establishment of a joint working group on defence cooperation and infrastructure creation.
ANALYSIS OF THE VISIT OF MOZAMBIQUE’S PRESIDENT TO INDIA While the President of Mozambique was in a state visit to India, he also visited Ahmedabad. It is interesting to note that Nyusi is a IIM Ahmadabad alumni and had https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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studied there in 2003 when he undertook a management development programme for four months. During his visit to the IIM, he also addressed a conference on the theme ‘Make Africa your Partner’ and showcased multiple investment opportunities in East Africa. He also paid an official visit to Arvind Limited Plant in Santej and the Sabarmati Ashram. In 2016, as the oil and gas prices have been taking a plunge, India has taken the lead to negotiate the creation of an alliance of gas importers. This has been done to prevent price shocks. The Gas Authority of India Limited is India’s official leader in the negotiations. In June, 2016, a high-level delegation from the commerce and agriculture ministries of India had visited Mozambique. The delegation had been sent to explore the possibilities of the import of pulses. The delegation had also been tabled to explore if contract farming option were feasible in Mozambique for pulse imports. This is primarily done to enhance buffer stock of pulses in India due to rise in pulse prices. As tur and arhar pulses are grown in Mozambique, there could be future imports to India for the same.
ANALYSIS OF INDIAN PM’S VISIT TO MOZAMBIQUE, JULY 2016 In July, 2016, the Indian PM visited Mozambique and met Filipe Nyusi. The PM began his five-day Africa tour with Mozambique as the first destination.
During the visit, the PM described Mozambique as India’s “trusted friend” and a “reliable partner.” The PM also committed assistance to Mozambique in its public health ventures and assured Mozambique of supply of essential medicines from India. A decision has also been taken to enhance defence training and development as Mozambique forces are provided defence training and development by India. As Mozambique is a coastal https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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nation, it also faces significant threats due to maritime piracy. As India’s trade engagement is likely to increase in future with Mozambique, both nations have decided to cooperate on maritime security and ensure protection of sea lanes of communication. In order to effectively meet the security challenges arising out of threats emanating from Indian Ocean region, both nations have agreed to cooperate on defence engagement.
An agreement on hydrocarbon cooperation has been envisaged. After Qatar and Australia, Mozambique emerges as the third largest natural gas exporter. ONGC has already invested heavy amounts in natural gas sector of Mozambique. Due to severe drought in India in 2014 and 2015, the production of pulses in India has been affected. The demand for pulses has grown while the supply has not been adequate due to a severe price rise. An important achievement during the PM’s visit to Mozambique has been the conclusion of an agreement for pulses supply. The government has signed a long-term contract for pulses import from Mozambique. India will encourage Mozambique in pigeon peas cultivation and will import the produce through designated government agencies and private channels. The agreement has been signed for an initial period of five years. To begin with, the government in India will import 1,00,000 tonnes in 2016–17 and double it by 2020–21.
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During the visit, the Indian PM also interacted with students of Mozambique who have studied in India at the Science and Technology Park, Maulana. He also interacted with the Indian diaspora settled in Mozambique.
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5 CHAPTER
India and Nigeria Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical Background Defense Diplomacy Commercial and Oil Diplomacy
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Nigeria had been a British Colony since the 1850s. India, however, established relations with Nigeria as early as 1958, though Nigeria became independent only in 1960. India and Nigeria have a long common struggle against apartheid and colonialism. India had supported Nigeria in its struggle on both fronts. Nehru visited Nigeria in 1962. The relations between both have been cordial despite irregular state visits by either side. Since Nehru’s visit, the next high level bilateral visit happened only in 2007 when Dr Manmohan Singh visited Nigeria and concluded the India–Nigeria Strategic Partnership Agreement.
DEFENCE DIPLOMACY India and Nigeria have a defence based relationship. The components in defence cooperation are those of training and capacity building. India offers training to defence officers of Nigeria at the NDA and the IMA in India. India, at the diplomatic level, has a defence attaché in its High Commission in Nigeria. In 2015, India decided to provide defence hardware to Nigeria to enhance military cooperation.
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One of the most important dimensions in the relationship between India and Nigeria is trade. Nigeria is a resource-rich country and is in possession of a lot of crude oil. India today imports anything between 8–12% of Nigerian crude oil. India exports to Nigeria commodities like pharmacy products, rice and rubber while it imports oil, steel and cashew. Though, at the trade level there is an imbalance as India imports more (crude oil being the factor) than its exports, as the Nigerian economy has embarked upon a programme of diversification, the trade imbalance is likely to be rectified soon. Due to the diversification of the Nigerian economy, tremendous scope for Indian investment in infrastructure, and energy education, financial inclusion and poverty alleviation can be envisaged. To encourage firms to take advantage of the diversification of Nigerian economy, it has offered tax rebates and other benefits to various companies. A lot of Indian firms are already present in Nigeria. Bharti Airtel, Essar and Tata are some firms doing good business. Bajaj has been exporting a lot of automobile units to Nigeria. In August, 2015, Indian High Commission in Nigeria organised a ‘Brand India’ exercise. A lot of Indian companies, like NIIT, Tata, Dabur, Ashok Leyland, and so on, used this forum to showcase their expertise in infrastructure and IT sectors. As per R. Ghyanahyam, IFS and India’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, there is immense trade potential between India and Nigeria, which can be significantly enhanced if both nations try to guarantee investment protection. In 2017, at the 4th India–Africa Hydrocarbon Conference in New Delhi, India had committed to double its oil imports for Nigeria. Nigeria, in the recent times, has tried to modify its oil selling and contract policies. Before this modification, the buyers of Nigerian oil had to purchase oil from spot markets. The problem of purchasing oil from spot markets was that it was vulnerable to price shocks. Nigeria has now started encouraging term contracts. As per a term contract, a fixed quantity of oil is to be supplied to contracting party at a stable price. Nigeria has also decided to sell oil directly to oil suppliers. In this context of a modified policy architecture, the Indian Oil Company (IOC) stands to gain as it had decided to agree for a term contract import of three million tonnes per annum crude from Nigeria in 2016.
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Future Sectors for India–Nigeria Cooperation ICT development: As a lot of Indian companies are in Nigeria, one area of potential cooperation is corporate learning, software development and value-added services. As the demand for tele connectivity and internet grows in Nigeria, the Indian corporate sector can enhance the ICT skills of Nigerian population in association with government agencies. This will create a lot of goodwill for India in Nigeria. Healthcare: In Nigeria, healthcare is a neglected area. The Nigerian government has not yet equipped Nigerian healthcare with the needed capacity. This provides an opportunity for India. More so, in Nigeria there is an attitude amongst people to give preference to anything which is foreign. This attitude is most visible in healthcare. Every month, more than 5000 people on an average fly abroad for treatment. A lot of Nigerians also come to India as treatments in India are cheaper than in the US and Europe. However, the lack of connectivity via direct flights between India and Nigeria creates a difficulty in mobilisation of patients. Thus, two things can be done to leverage the opportunity. First, to take medical tourism to its full potential, we can enhance flight connectivity with daily, regular direct flights and secondly, encourage Indian hospitals to open up hospitals to cater to the market in Nigeria itself (for instance, Apollo hospital has opened a hospital in Nigeria lately).
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6 CHAPTER
India and Angola Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical Background Commercial and Oil Diplomacy Analysis of Angolan Agriculture minister visit to India
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Angola was a colony of the Portuguese. Portugal continued to rule in Angola till 1974. After a revolution in Portugal in 1974, its colonial empire crumbled and in 1975, Angola gained independence from Portugal. However, as Portuguese rule ended in Angola, they did not hand over power to any particular political contender. This led to a civil war in Angola in 1975, which ended only in 2002. Due to the UN presence in Angola during the civil war, peace was established by 2002. India, on the other hand, had established diplomatic relations with Angola way back in 1975. However, the relationship could grow only from 2002.
OIL AND COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY One of the key components of Angola–India relationship is the trade in oil. Angola is a very important country for India’s energy security. Angola is one of the largest suppliers of oil to India. India’s major items of export to Angola include transportation equipments, tractors, agricultural machinery, rice and imports include majorly crude oil. The state owned SONANGOL is the oil regulator and supplier in Angola. Apart from oil, Angola is also rich in diamonds. It is also a leading exporter of diamonds. A lot of Indian firms are also doing business in the oil sector in Angola. Some of the prominent firms include Reliance Oil, HPCL Mumbai and Engineering India limited. Lately, a lot of Indian companies are showing interest in rural and urban housing as the housing and construction industry in Angola is witnessing a boom.
Case Study Caminho de Ferro de Mocamedes and the Indian Railways The Angolan government has initiated a project to rehabilitate and modernise the colonial railways of Angola. It is in this context that India cooperates with Angola. The government of India has provided technical assistance to Angola in Railways on the basis of a study done by RITES, India. India has provided locomotives and coaches to Angola for the route of Lubango to Pedrera. India has provided a 40million-dollar line of credit for the railways in Angola. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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ANALYSIS OF THE VISIT OF ANGOLAN AGRICULTURE MINISTER TO INDIA In May, 2016, the Angolan agriculture minister, Afonso Pedro, paid a visit to India. He paid a visit to the Punjab Agriculture University and discussed with agricultural scientists the challenges Angola witnesses in agriculture. He not only invited a student delegation from Punjab Agriculture University to visit Angola to explore agro-forestry but also concluded some agreement on potential sectors.
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7 CHAPTER
India and Seychelles Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical Background Defence Diplomacy Analysis of Indian PM’s visit to Seychelles in 2015
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND Seychelles is an island territory comprising of 115 islands. Since 1794, it had been a colony of the British. From 1794 till 1903, Seychelles was administered by the British from Mauritius. From 1903 onward, Seychelles came to be governed as a separate British colony. Seychelles gained independence from the British in 1976. In the same year, India established its relations with Seychelles and opened a diplomatic mission in 1979. Seychelles witnessed a visit by Indian PM Indira Gandhi in 1981.
DEFENCE DIPLOMACY The most important component of India–Seychelles relationship is defence cooperation, which functions on multiple levels.
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India has been providing training to the Seychelles People’s Defence Forces (SPDF). The SPDF contingents are regularly provided with theoretical and on-ground training by India. India is a part of 25 nation combined task force established to tackle piracy emerging out of coast of Bahrain. Piracy is also rampant in East Africa and the island states are crucial in the fight against piracy.
India, in its attempt to fight piracy in East Africa, has assisted Seychelles in bolstering its counter piracy capabilities. Seychelles also funds India as a stable and a nonthreatening ally for maritime security. India has sent naval ships to Seychelles on its request in 2009 to assist Seychelles’s fight against piracy. In fact, back in 2006, India had gifted Seychelles INS Tarmugli, which was inducted by Seychelles as Ps Topaz. India, in 2014, also gifted INS Tarasa to Seychelles which was a ship for naval surveillance and patrolling.
Case Study Operation ‘Flowers are Blooming’ and R&AW in Seychelles Seychelles was one the most hotly contested territories during the Cold War. The US wanted to establish a military base in Seychelles. Even Russian wanted a base in Seychelles to challenge the USA’s military base in Diego Garcia. Seychelles defended its territory very powerfully during that period to ensure that neither of the two powers succeeded in their goal. In 1977, a socialist leader, Albert Rene, gained power in Seychelles through a military coup. Since then, a lot of attempts of coup were made in Seychelles to remove Albert Rene. A most embarrassing situation had emerged in 1981 when a South African secret service agent, Hick Hoare, had landed in Seychelles disguised as a businessman but his plan was unfolded the moment the security agencies of Seychelles discovered huge cache of arms in his check-in baggage. Hick Hoare hijacked an Air India plane AI-707 aircraft and flew to Johannesburg. Finally, to put an end to repeated coup attempts, Albert Rene decided to ask for help from India. In 1986, the R&AW station officer advised Albert Rene that his own Defence Ministry Qgilvy was planning a coup. Albert Rene had a dialogue with the then Indian PM (Indira Gandhi) who handed over the matter to https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Admiral RH Tahiliani and R&AW officials. In close conference between Indian navy and the R&AW, it was decided that India would dispatch INS Vindhyagiri to Seychelles to participate in the National Day celebrations of Seychelles. The plan was that the moment INS Vindhyagiri would reach Seychelles, it would plant a request to increase its stay in Seychelles due to an engineering defect on board. The operation was given its code name, ‘Flowers are blooming’. INS Vindhyagiri reached Seychelles and reported the engineering defect and requested an increased stay, which was subsequently granted. In the next 12 days, during the INS Vindhyagiri’s stay in Seychelles, the deck of the ship was used for aggressive power projections, conveying to the defence minister Qgilvy the clear consequences of a coup. The 12-day presence achieved the objective and Qgilvy left Seychelles and a coup was averted. Followed by this, in 1989, India established the Seychelles Defence Academy and began to strengthen the defence cooperation between the two nations.
ANALYSIS OF INDIAN PM’S VISIT TO SEYCHELLES—2015 Considering the strategic significance of Seychelles, the Indian PM paid a state visit to the country in 2015. The visit was to bolster the concept of blue economy. India had helped Seychelles to have a complete track of all naval ship movements in the region. The PM also concluded a pact on undertaking hydrographic survey and to provide a three months free visa-on-arrival for citizens of Seychelles to India. The two nations have, since 2001, established a high level Joint Defence Coordination Committee. This committee is responsible for regular joint military exercises between the two nations. In February 2016, the 7th India–Seychelles military exercises, LAMITYE 2016, was organised in Victoria. The word lamitye, in the local Creole language, means friendship. The two nations undertook anti-piracy simulated exercise.
Case Study Infrastructure Development Rights (IDR) of Assumption Islands, 2015 Assumption Islands are islands with an area of 11.74 square kilometres, counted amongst the Aldabra group of islands. These islands are very popular amongst scientists who come to study the giant tortoises at Aldabra islands. India has got IDR for Assumption Islands. India will help in establishing a new jetty terminal, refurbish the airstrip and establish a forward base for the coast guard of Seychelles with all modern facilities. These developments will equip Seychelles with more power to help protect the tortoise species in the region and will also allow India to exert geopolitical influence in the Oceanic region.
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India also extends lines of credit to Seychelles and had assisted Seychelles in skill training under ITEC. Since 1978, Bank of Baroda has been present in Seychelles. Tata and Ashok Leyland in automobile and Airtel in telecom are common names. Under Ran Africa E-network project, hospital connectivity has been provided for. Approximately eight per cent of Seychelles’s population descends from Indians, making our culture and values those that are commonly shared and nurtured.
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8 CHAPTER
India and Namibia Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical Background Civilian Nuclear Cooperation and developments during Indian President’s visit
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND India had been an ardent supporter of decolonisation in Namibia. We have already mentioned India’s diplomatic efforts to establish the SWAPO to support Namibia in Chapter 1 of this section. India established official diplomatic relations with Namibia in 1990, and have had extremely cordial relations since then.
CIVIL NUCLEAR COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENTS DURING INDIAN PRESIDENT’S VISIT—2016 In 2009, the two countries concluded an argument in civilian nuclear cooperation. Namibia is a signatory of the Treaty of Pelindaba. The treaty establishes an African nuclear weapons free zone. Namibia has the fourth largest reserves of Uranium in the world but being a signatory of Treaty of Pelindaba, it is prohibited to undertake any nuclear commerce with non-NPT signatories. Thus, Namibia has signed a nuclear deal with India but is unable to ratify or enforce it due to obligations under the Treaty of Pelindaba. As per India’s outreach to Africa programme, the Indian President paid a visit to Namibia in June 2016. During the visit of the Indian President, cooperation was envisaged in multiple sectors. India has committed to the opening of a centre of excellence in ICT in Namibia. An agreement has been reached on India allowing training to Namibian civil servants. The nuclear issue also came up for discussion during the Presidential visit. In Namibia, Uranium reserves are held by private players and are not under government control. India is planning joint venture uranium exploration with private players in Namibia. This will help us to explore an alternate route. In October 2016, a team of Department of Atomic Energy from India visited Namibia to explore a joint venture.
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9 CHAPTER
India and Ghana and Cote D’ Ivoire Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical Background Analysis of Indian President visit
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND India and Ghana’s relations go back to the time of Nehru. A string relationship was built by cooperation of Nehru and Kurume Nkrumah of Ghana. India has been supporting the development in Ghana over a period of time.
VISIT OF INDIAN PRESIDENT—2016 In June 2016, as per India’s outreach to Africa programme, Indian President paid a visit to Ghana. During the visit, the two sides concluded an MoU on visa waiver for officials. A decision has been taken to establish a joint committee to enhance bilateral relations. India and Ghana have agreed to cooperate on exports of gold and cocoa to India and imports of pharmacy products, electronic equipment and telecom products from India. India has been providing lines of credit to Ghana and accessional financial assistance for its socioeconomic development projects, like Komenda sugar plant and its fishing sector. Ghana has also expressed interest in exploring clean energy cooperation with India. It has expressed interest in nuclear cooperation as well. India and Ivory Coast established diplomatic relations in 1979. For Ivory Coast, India is the core country on which it depends on for the development of agriculture, ICT, mining and infrastructure. India also supported Ivory Coast through the Pan Africa e-Network project and under ITEC scholarships. Ivory Coast exports cashews to India and imports pharmacy products and cereals. In June 2016, the Indian President visited Ivory Coast. He was accorded the National Order, the highest honour to a civilian, by Ivory Coast’s President, Alassane Quattara.
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Vice President of India’s Visit to Tunisia and Morocco, May, 2016 The Vice President of India visited Tunisia and concluded pacts on cooperation on terrorism, ICT, and reforms in UNSC. The bilateral trade between India and Tunisia amounts to one billion dollars. Tunisia is a leading exporter of phosphate to India. The two nations have decided to envisage handicraft promotion and student exchange programmes. The Vice President of India also paid a visit to Morocco. Rising India–Morocco tourism and business interactions are the driving force in our relations. The two nations have concluded an MoU on training of diplomats. Moroccan diplomats would participate in diplomatic training in India. India’s CDAT will also be establishing a centre of excellence of IT in Morocco and India will assist in curriculum designing and skill training. Morocco has also expressed interest in India’s Aadhaar Project.
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10 CHAPTER
India and South Africa Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical Background India and South Africa Diplomatic relations Commercial Diplomacy Multilateral Diplomacy Analysis of Indian PM visit
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND India and South Africa (SA) share a historic bond. The relationship goes back to the times of British colonial rule of SA, with the British importing indentured labour from India. The most important personality in the relationship is certainly MK Gandhi. It is during his stay in SA that Gandhi developed and practised the technique of Satyagraha that later on became a key component of the Indian National Movement. It is his experience in SA that later on took the concrete shape of Afro–Asian solidarity in the early 20 century. th
INDIA AND SA DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS The continued struggle of South Africans against apartheid had two impacts. Firstly, India officially decided to discontinue any diplomatic relationship with SA while apartheid was being officially recognised and practised. Secondly, India widened its global struggle against imperialism and colonialism to include apartheid and raised these three issues whenever necessary in global platforms. Throughout 1940s and 1950s, India continued to push for resolutions seeking to censure SA for apartheid at the UN level and other multilateral forums, including NAM. India also provided monetary support to the Organisation of African Unity Assistance Fund for the struggle against colonialism and apartheid. The relationship has improved only after the formal end of apartheid in 1994 and since then has grown on the basis of past Afro–Asian solidarity. The improvement in the bilateral relationship can also be analysed within India’s larger Africa policy framework (explained in the first chapter of this section). As India needs resources to sustain growth and to project power, SA becomes a crucial player, being one of the most resource-rich nations in the southern part of the African continent. Moreover, all the governments of SA post-1994 have been quite pragmatic and have ensured the development of their country through pertinent foreign policy tools.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY One of the most pragmatic moves has been to include SA in BRICS and align with the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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emerging economies than being dependent solely upon the west. The impact of pragmatism is visible on India–SA trade which has gone to reach almost 15 billion dollars at present. There is a huge demand of gold in India, and SA is one of the leading suppliers of gold to the country. Even the Indian private sector is quite keen to make use of SA as a base for sub-Saharan engagements. SA has a well-established financial market system, proper infrastructure and a stringent rule of law. Ranbaxy, Cipla, Tata, Mahindra are just some of the Indian firms to have made SA their base, to name a few. In order to enhance commercial engagement between India and SA, it is important for both to conclude a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA).
MULTILATERAL DIPLOMACY Since both states are dominant players in the Indian ocean and since gold from SA comes via the ocean route, a potential area of cooperation for the two is piracy, peace and maritime security. SA has a strong navy but somehow is a little reluctant to project power in South East Africa as it feels that Africa lacks a coherent maritime strategy. SA is also reluctant to project power in Horn of Africa region because it believes that the problem of piracy in the area is more due to continuance of the failed state of Somalia. However, to protect its maritime zone, it has participated in joint naval exercises, despite its lack of urge to assert naval hegemonic power. Both India and SA can use Indian Ocean Rim Association as a forum to enhance maritime cooperation. The relation between the two nations is equally strong at the multilateral level. They are both represented at IBSA (India, Brazil, SA) framework and undertake broad cooperation. At the level of WTO and climate change negotiations through the BASIC group, both are known to undertake multilateral cooperation. A peculiar feature in their multilateral relationship is that SA intends to uphold a pan-African position in a majority of these cases, which, at time, strains the India–SA cooperation.
Case Study Arab Spring, SA and India and R2P In 2011–12, India and SA, along with Nigeria and Guinea Bissau were represented in the UNSC as non-permanent members. One of the issues they confronted was NATO intervention against Libya. As the voting progressed, India abstained, while the three African states voted in favour of NATO intervention, clearly making cracks in India– SA multilateral diplomacy visible. The reasons that the Africans state voted in favour was because the UN Resolution 1973 synchronises with Article 4(h) of African Union’s Constitutive Act of 2000 which supports collective intervention in a state to put a halt to mass atrocities. On the other hand, India continues to form nonintervention and sovereignty as its ideal policy in such matters of Responsibility to Protect (R2P). Despite such strains, the relationship continues to grow and India will seek deep economic engagement in the time ahead with SA as its own demand for resources grows at home.
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The Indian PM, as a part of his four nation tour to Africa, in July 2016, visited South Africa and met Jacob Zuma.
In June, 2016, the annual plenary session of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) held its meeting in Seoul. In the meeting, an important agenda was India’s membership to the NSG. However, some players, including South Africa, had raised procedural concerns, as a result of which India could not attain the membership in Seoul meeting. South Africa has been an ardent supporter of non-proliferation. Its non-proliferation credentials are so strong that in 1994, when South Africa ended apartheid, it went on to destroy its entire nuclear arsenal. During the PM’s visit, an important dimension discussed was South African support to India for NSG. The PM, during his visit, also announced that India’s pharmaceutical major Cipla will setup a biosimilars manufacturing facility in the Special Economic Zone of Duke Trade port in Durban and will manufacture drugs for cancer treatment using living organisms. This factory will be established with an investment of 591 crore Indian Rupees and will generate more than 300 science related jobs in South Africa.
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11
India’s Outreach to Africa
CHAPTER
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Concept of India’s Outreach to Africa Programme Asia-Africa Growth Corridor Analysis of Indian PM Visit to Kenya and Tanzania Since the coming of the new government in India in 2014, it has given a tremendous importance to reaching out to Africa. India’s outreach to Africa began in early 2015 when senior ministers were sent to visit all 54 nations in Africa to invite them to India for the third IAFS in October, 2015. This spectacular diplomatic achievement later also saw India doing away with the Banjul formula. After the success of the summit, the second component of outreach began. As discussed in the previous chapters, the second component witnessed the Indian President and Vice President visiting African nations to strengthen bilateral ties. In the third component, we see the Indian Prime Minister reaching out starting July, 2016.
Thus, through this unique format, India was able to reassert people-to-people as well as government-to-government ties, along with building business link.
Case Study Asia-Africa Growth Corridor At the 52 Annual General Meeting of African Development Bank in Gandhinagar in May, 2017, the Indian PM, along with his Japanese and African counterparts, propounded the idea of an Asia–Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC). The idea had its origin in the discussion of Indian and Japanese PM in 2016. Under this initiative, a mega sea corridor based on ancient sea routes connecting Africa with India and South East and East Asia is being envisaged. The idea is to create a low cost, environment friendly sea corridor to boost investment, transport, trade and connectivity. India and Japan are going to play a major role in developing infrastructure. The creation of AAGC will be akin to making an investment corridor where Japan will contribute its expertise in infrastructure creation while India will bring its core diplomatic expertise. The priority areas of AAGC include projects related to health, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, food processing, disaster management, skill nd
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development and technology. Some scholars have the orised that the AAGC is a counter proposal to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative or the BRI (explained in detail in section H, chapter 2). The AAGC is unique in many aspects. In contrast to the BRI, the AAGC is a purely sea based corridor, which means that it ensures a lesser carbon footprint. Secondly, in AAGC, the process is more democratic and consultative as the focus is to assist the African states in the ways they want. Thirdly, the AAGC is a corridor where the private sector will be playing a major role in contrast to the BRI, which will be completely state funded.
Case Study Analysis of PM Visit to Kenya and Tanzania in July 2016 The Indian PM visited Kenya & held talks with Uhuru Kenyatta. India extended 44.95 million dollars line of credit to Kenya for assistance in small industrial development & textile sector. To strengthen our bonds over healthcare, India has committed development of a cancer hospital in Kenya. As Kenya being a maritime state is also affected by the threats of piracy, both nations have decided to undertake maritime cooperation. India has committed assistance to Kenya for development of its economy and also assistance for skill development. During his visit to Tanzania, the PM visited the Barefoot College and also interacted with solar mamas. Solar mamas are trained to provide solar electricity in their villages. The Indian government is providing training to rural women from Africa for solar lighting and entrepreneurship. During his meeting with Tanzanian President John Magufuli, India agreed to provide 92 million dollars line of credit to Tanzania. The money will be used for improvement of water supply system in Zanzibar. India is assisting the country in is water projects and is also presently working on IT in Tanzanian.
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End of Part Questions 1. Sustained India-Japan cooperation in Africa can match China’s substantial outreach to Africa. Examine this statement in the light of the vision of the AsiaAfrica Growth Corridor. 2. The Chinese naval base in Africa is likely to have consequenses on India’s security interests in the Indian Ocean. Examine. 3. What are the key achievements of India in the continental India Africa Forum Summits? 4. India must have a serious dialogue with African countries on its role in future peace keeping operations in the continent. Discuss. 5. The Third India Africa Forum Summit presented India an opportunity to establish itself as a preferred partner of Africa. Examine. 6. India should build on its strategic ties with Africa, by leveraging both its large market and traditional goodwill. Examine. 7. The African Development Bank has put in place a set of ambitious priorities that can unleash the real potential of India-Africa cooperation. Discuss. 8. A far wider cultural engagement with the continent is necessary to combat the latent racism among Indians. Examine the statement in the light of racial attacks on Africans in India. 9. India’s education sector can drive a mutually beneficial human resources exchange to realise Africa’s long term goals. Discuss. 10. Indian interests in Africa will benefit from timely implementation of projects. Examine the statement in the light of key hurdles in implementation of projects by India in Africa. 11. India’s attitude towards Africa cannot remain imprisoned in the ‘dark continent’ stereotype. Neither can it be defined solely by the legacy of the colonial era. Our language of engagement needs to create a new edifice defined by an aspirational Africa’s quest for a good life. Sketch your argument.
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PART-B
1 CHAPTER
India and Central Asia Policy—Key Drivers of the Relationship
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Background of Central Asia Strategic Interests of India in Central Asia Strategic Interests of other players in Central Asia Challenges faced by India in Central Asia
BACKGROUND OF CENTRAL ASIA (CA) The background of CA is crucial to understand how India engages with the region. Below I provide a brief account of the history of CA. The history is divided in two parts.
PART-A: FROM THE SILK ROAD TO THE GREAT GAME CA has always been a prized territory. The history of CA is a testimony to this fact. The importance of the region has been highlighted by the mighty empires of Genghis Khan, Timur Beg and Alexander of Macedonia. In the early Christian era, CA oversaw a magnificent ancient Silk Route. This Silk Route connected the Far East with Europe Silk Route and was dominated by the Chinese. The Chinese influence in the region began to decline by 6th and 7th Century when Islam made inroads into CA from the Arab world. However, even with the Chinese influence in the region in the decline, silkworm agriculture in the Fergana Valley continued. Arabs took over the trade along the Silk Route, Silk Route which now entered a new cultural arena. The region saw the rise of powerful Persian and Turkic empires. The cultural legacy of these two mega empires is visible in the region till today. The picture in the modern times is relatively different. In 18th and 19th century, the CA region witnessed annexation by the Tsar (monarch) of Russia. One reason why the Tsar was worried about the regions in the south was because of the British Empire in India. The British in India had been very aggressively undertaking consolidation. The Tsar became concerned about the security of his own empire. Thus, for Russian Tsar, the most immediate goal was to ensure that Afghanistan should not fall into the hands of the British. In order to ensure this, Russia began to consolidate its position in CA. In 1865, Russia completed the annexation of Tashkent city and by 1881, the Tsar had consolidated his presence in trans-Caspian region. The competition between the Tsar and British was so intense that CA was actually transformed into a buffer by Russia to use against the British. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Meanwhile, the British also became increasingly uncomfortable and insecure due to the Tsar’s aggressive influence. The British perceived the expansionist agenda of Tsar as a potential future threat to their own empire in India. The British fought multiple Anglo– Afghan wars to establish control over Afghanistan. In the process, in the modern times, Afghanistan and CA both unwittingly became buffer states. The British carried out the establishment of a boundary in Afghanistan to keep a check on Russian influence. This boundary, called the Wakhan corridor, created acted as buffer. This entire scenario of the Anglo–Russian rivalry in the region has been termed by historians as The Great Game of CA. Thus, the origin of the Great Game goes back to the 19th Century when the Russians advanced to the region of CA and Caucasus, which was perceived by the British as a threat. The British responded to resist the influence of Russia by establishing a huge network of agents in the frontier areas to gather intelligence against the Russians. The British even tried to make Afghanistan a buffer state, though remained largely unsuccessful. The importance of CA for the British increased in 1904 when Harold Mackinder published an article observing that if Russia is able to position itself in the Eurasian heartland, it would gain power to pivot the region to emerge as a world power.
Case Study Theory and Practice of Soviet Rule in CA During Cold War From 1865 to 1918, CA was under the Russian rule as a colony of Russia. In the inter-war period, as the Red Army became more assertive, CA came under the direct rule of the Soviets. Scholars have often tried to compare the colonisation of Europe with Soviet rule of CA and have asserted that the Soviet rule of CA cannot be compared with exploitative colonialism practices by other European powers. This is so because the Soviet rule in CA saw Soviets investing heavily into education and electricity in CA. The scholars have asserted that the Soviet rule in practice was a mixture of imperialism and state building. Francine Hirsch in his study Empire of Nations asserts that Soviets did not follow the simple divide and rule logic, as other imperial powers, in CA. The Soviets introduced industrialisation of CA apart from applying colonial patterns for cotton and energy resources. Oksana Dmitrieva asserts that Soviet-CA relationship is a unique case with no parallel in the world. The CA states were aptly called as patrimonial states (Alexander Cooley) where Soviet maintained authority by giving resources to regional and sub-regional informal institutions (like clan etc.). Such institutions worked so well that even when Gorbachev introduced Glasnost and Perestroika, there were hardly any mass uprisings on the ground. The end of the Cold War saw the CA states transform into now Republics with authoritarian rulers. An immediate absence of interest of any Great Power created new spaces for new ideas. The West led civil society organizations promoted pluralism and market economy while Saudi Arabia initiated the spread of Wahhabism. CA eventually became a new space for propagation of religious agendas. As Russia struggled with its domestic issues, in the post Cold War period, China focused its energies through Shanghai-5 to conclude the pending border disputes with CA. USA, though was interested in promoting NATO in the post-Soviet sphere, but, decided to refrain from the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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same in CA. Despite all this, due to the deep entrenchment of Russia during Cold War; in the Post Cold War period, it still remained the major actor by default.
PART-B: FROM THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION TO THE REVIVAL OF THE NEW GREAT GAME As noted above, at the end of the Cold War, CA states adopted authoritarianism. The states have established complete authority over their media and domestic security structures to ensure that there is no threat to the authority of the one party patrimonial rule. In all the CA states, the opposition is in exile and all threats to the authority are well conflated. Post 9/11, CA became a new hub for the USA’s Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). USA concluded fresh flying and refuelling agreements with CA. This gave the CA states new platform to assert their authority by asserting their local rules. The CA states did cooperate with USA but also asserted their dominance by limiting the influence of USA to seek political reforms domestically. The old Great Game got revived once again and was now played, post 9/11, between USA, China and Russia as new actors. Today CA is an area of high geopolitics as great powers try to buy local loyalties of CA states with an intention to block their rivals to gain any geopolitical significance.
Background of India’s Relations with CA India’s relations with CA go back to the ancient times. A study of the site of Altyn-Depe, a Bronze age site in Turkmenistan, also proves that Harappa did have interactions with CA as some artefacts of the late Harrapan stage were found at the site. In the 2nd century BC, Aryans from CA began to migrate towards India, and took along with them domesticated breeds of horses. During early ancient and medieval times, it was the Silk Route that connected India with the region. The Silk Route had three branches—the north, south and central. It is the southern branch of the Silk Route that connected CA with India. Thus, the Indian subcontinent was connected with China on one side and to CA on the other side. From the first and second century BCE, we see the major tribal nomadic groups moving via the Silk Route to reach India. Over a period of time, at later stages, through this route came the Sakas, the Parthians and the Kushanas. The Kushanas established a very strong and unified kingdom under them, including large parts of the northern Indian territory. The Kushanas also patronised Buddhism which not only flourished under their rule but also reached other territories like China and CA under their patronage. The cultural impact of Buddhism in the region can still be seen today. The ancient Silk Route thus contributed to cultural exchange and introduced varied elements of other cultures in the Indian subcontinent.
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In Persia, during the medieval ages, the great Sasanian empire was the last empire to thrive before the rise of Islam. The trade on the Silk Route in the medieval times began to decline. The Sasanian Empire continued its hostility towards the Romans, and thus, the focus on trade dwindled away. During the medieval times, Islam gradually came to be firmly rooted in CA. Islam also gradually began to trickle into India. This gradual movement of Islam in India did provide an impetus to trade but it never quite reached the same magnitude as that of the ancient times. Indians exported cotton, shawls, dyes and ayurvedic medicine to the region while it imported horses, gold and dry fruits. This revival of trade also established a small segment of the Indian diaspora in CA during the medieval times. Towards the middle of the medieval period, maritime trade with Europe began. The Europeans began to trade with the Far East. During this time period, the Muslims and Persians resorted to strengthening their control over land trade as Europeans began to consolidate maritime trade.
Case Study Economic Contributions of the Silk Route to India The Silk Route brought about a significant transformation in the economic architecture of India. The most visible contribution could be seen in the Kashmir region. From ancient to medieval times, a lot of craftsmen migrated from CA to India and settled down in the region. The craftsmen began to practise embroidery and shared the technology with locals. Over a period of time, the Kashmir region gained prominence in making shawls. Even today, Kashmir continues to dominate shawl trade in India. Irfan Habib, in his book A People’s History of India: Technology in Medieval India, C. 650–1750, also says that Noria, an ancient water wheel for irrigation which pumped water out of a river, came to India via the Silk Route. As the Mughal Empire in India began to crumble, India slipped into the hands of the British. On the other hand, the CA region came under the influence of the Tsar of Russia. The British and Russian rivalry led to the unfolding of the Great Game in three different phases. The Russian Tsar had an expansionist outlook but was also concerned about similarly aggressive British expansion in India. In order to keep the British influence in check, the Russian Tsar occupied Tashkent and Khantes. This alarmed the British as to the Tsar’s intentions to expand to India, which led them to fight the Anglo Afghan wars. Thus, the first phase of the Great Game oversees the formation of a buffer zone. The second phase of the Great Game began from 1907 and continued till 1917. This was the time when the buffer areas became grounds for espionage. Agents of Britain and Russia resorted to spying on each other’s territories to keep the adversary in check. In the third phase, or the period after 1917, the Russians established a firm control over CA, which gave them access to the vast cotton lands of CA. This land was aggressively used by Russia for sustaining industrial revolution back home. An important thing to note here is that since the time of Tsar of Russia, Russia had gradually come to exert a strong cultural influence in the region. Russians brought along their language while settling in the region and by the advent of modern times, Russian language had become ingrained in Central Asian culture. After the World War–II, Russia or USSR divided the CA region into five states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan) on the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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basis of ethnicity, with Moscow controlling the foreign policy of the five states. The USSR did provide India access to CA in the times of the Cold War. India continued to engage with CA through cultural interaction. Indian television and music remained popular in CA during the cold war; however, due to India’s non–alignment policy, a very deep relation between India and the Central Asian nations could not evolve.
As the Cold War ended, India evolved a concentric circle approach to foreign policy, whereby it first prioritised engagement with its immediate neighbourhood. At the second level came the extended neighbourhood and last came the great powers. As far as CA was concerned, in the foreign policy pattern, it fitted in the arena of its extended neighbourhood. Thus, CA can be deemed as India’s extended neighbour with which India has enjoyed historical and cultural ties. As the Cold War ended, the five CA Republics gained independence from Russia, giving them the needed strategic and autonomic space to explore relationships with other countries independent of the Russian yoke. India, on the basis of its historical and cultural proximity to CA, now began making overtures again unlock potential alliances. India concluded fresh diplomatic treaties with all the five CA Republics. During the Cold War, the foreign policy of India in CA had been completely directed through the prism of USSR. Finally, at the end of the Cold War, India found the opportunity to engage with the regional states one on one. Domestically, India made a transition from closed to open economy, and also began to feel the need of acquiring resources for sustaining its own economic growth. Thus, CA became all the more significant for India as the region was a highly resource rich one. But as the CA Republics had just gained independence, one of the foremost concern for India was to ensure that the region should not get engulfed in any form of religious extremism. The threat of religious extremism in CA was very high. During the Cold War period, the USSR and the USA were both engaged in Afghanistan. The territory of Afghanistan saw rise of jihadi elements which were directed against the USSR to contain communism. As the USSR disintegrated, the monetary and arms support to jihadist elements was stopped. There was a high possibility of a spill over of these extremist elements into CA as a majority of the Central Asian states were Islamic. India feared that if CA were to be engulfed by this extremism, it would give Pakistan an edge in maintaining strategic depth against India. Thus, India realised that not only it needed to revive its relations with CA on the basis of historical and cultural linkages but also needed to ensure that the region did not become a security concern for India. India began to realize that its own democracy, secular outlook, and its own multicultural polity are its assets which India can use for promotion in CA as the newly independent Central Asians would look for some role models to emulate. Since CA was a cultural and a religious mosaic of multiple groups, India could use the modalities of democracy, secularism and multiculturalism as core ideals for CA to take lessons from. In 1995, P V Narismha Rao https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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visited Turkmenistan and reiterated the common cultural legacy of the two nations to reestablish relationships. In his visit to Turkmenistan, Rao unveiled India’s Look North policy.
If India were to be able to promote these three goals, not only would it be able to reassert its cultural legacy and re-established its relationship with the Central Asian region, but it would also be able to achieve three core goals.
As time progressed, the security situation in the CA region deteriorated. Afghanistan fell into the hands of the Taliban in 1996. Indian fears were exacerbated as Pakistan recognised Taliban rule in Afghanistan. The extremism from Afghanistan also spilled over into Tajikistan, which saw a civil war take place. From the Pakistani side, there was an aggressive attempt to revive militancy in Kashmir in 1990s. Due to this instability, the immediate neighbours in the region were adversely affected. As the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, India, Russia and Iran supported a group called the Northern Alliance. India built a hospital near the airbase of Farkhor in Tajikistan. The military hospital provided medical assistance to the Northern Alliance. India also used the Ayni air base for the purpose of providing humanitarian assistance and aid. In the process, India–Tajik security co-operations strengthened over bilateral relations. However, as the region was in the grip of extremist forces, assertion of Look North Policy goals became increasingly difficult. In 1999 India’s security vulnerabilities were woefully exposed when IC–814 was hijacked. The situation in the region changed after 9/11. The US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. The US began to develop airbases and military logistic centres in CA for its global war on terror. India also realised the difficulty in the promotion of the goals planned under the Look North Policy and began to understand that Look North Policy could never be a successful policy to engage with CA. By this time, around 2000– 2001, the Indian economy, which had made a transition from a closed to an open economy a decade back had begun to bear fruit. India was in dire need of resources to propel its economic growth. Thus began the search for Indian foreign policy tools which would help it look at CA in a different way.
Case Study Why did the Look North Policy Remain Weak? https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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As outlined above, the deterioration of the security of the region was a colossal concern. The civil war in Tajikistan, the takeover of Afghanistan by Taliban, Pakistan sponsored militancy in Kashmir and support to Taliban were all noteworthy factors. However, many diplomats today agree, that apart from these reasons, India itself did not aggressively prioritise this region at the end of the Cold War. When the Cold War ended, the foremost priority of India was to improve relations with the US to fill the vacuum left by its past proximity to the erstwhile USSR. India also initiated the Look East Policy where the majority of its focus was directed to its Eastern neighbours. India somehow not only neglected to give due attention to CA, but the deteriorating security situation of CA also made India to think of CA from a purely security point of view than from the perspective of any economic significance. Thus, a mixture of all these factors made the implementation of Look North Policy weak. The presence of US in the region had also changed the regional equalities. The Taliban was defeated by the US and extremism had at least been controlled to a great extent if not wiped out. India’s proximity to the US in mid 2000s opened up the way to the nuclear deal in 2005 and NSG-specific waiver for India in 2008 led to a new form of strategic engagement. As the Indian economy began to show signs of growth, India’s hunger for resources also began to grow. For India, rebuilding a relationship with CA using different parameters became important. India now realised that in order to get resources from CA, it needed a reorientation of its policy. The new policy had to be based on economic diplomacy. As the region continued to remain fragile, however, India understood that the security component has to remain a part of the new engagement. India also found that the space for economic engagement with CA was very limited by the preexisting inroads China had made into CA. China had been engaging with CA republics economically since the end of Cold War. Thus, the challenge for India now was to chart out a balanced engagement in CA. In order to do this, the Indian Council of World Affairs undertook a Track-11 initiative called India–CA Dialogue. On 12th June, 2012, the Minister of State for External Affairs of India, during an address (at the first India–CA Dialogue) in the city of Bishkek in Kyrgyz Republic, announced the Connect Central Asia Policy (CCAP). The new policy has the following goals:
The new CCAP emerged as a very broad policy to re-engage with the region. The main thrust of the CCAP is to increase connectivity with CA for energy security. The International North- South Transit Corridor (INSTC) envisaged is a mega connectivity https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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initiative to improve connectivity with CA and assist them in their own growth. In this regard, there are multiple initiatives under CCAP. The first initiative at the civilian level envisages youth exchange programmers and India providing training to the youth of CA in IT skills. The second initiative is at the level of military collaboration. There are also provisions for joint exercises and counter terrorism exercises. At the bilateral level, as we shall see ahead, there is also a provision of regular intelligence sharing. The CCAP provides India a broad framework to engage with the region.
Case Study India, Central Asia and Culture The scenic beauty of CA has always attracted the Indian film industry. In 1987, Russia allowed India to be the only non-communist nation to open a mission in Tashkent with a jurisdiction over other CA nations. India used it to promote the festivals of India, and regularly held cultural programmes, music, films and dance festivals in CA. Since the 1950s, Indian films have showcased the scenic beauty of CA to its audience.
STRATEGIC INTEREST OF INDIA IN CA At the time when the Cold War ended, the Soviet control over CA also ended. The CA republics began to assert independence. India took the lead to forge diplomatic ties with the region. During this time period, two important things happened. Firstly, as discussed in the previous section, the security situation of the region deteriorated. The prime strategic interest of India during this time was to ensure that the region does not slip into religious extremism from deteriorating conditions in Afghanistan. Secondly, the other important thing that happened in the region to CA was the influence of China. As the influence of Russia in CA at the end of the Cold War declined, the Chinese stepped into the shoes of the Russians. Since the Chinese economy had made a transition to an open economy under Deng Xiaoping, it had begun to expand and subsequently faced a crunch of resources. China desperately needed resources to sustain the momentum and finally adopted a plan of action based on a long-term policy. Its policy was to first open up relations with CA and remove all irritants. It would then concentrate on integrating the Chinese economy with https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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that of CA. It would then take steps to ensure sustained resource supply from the region. While India was engaged with the Northern Alliance and trying to give effect to its Look North Policy, the Chinese began to resolve border issues with CA. As the borders had acted as irritants, the Chinese not only resolved these issues, but also demilitarised its borders with CA. Next, it began to supply the weak CA economies with domestically manufactured goods. In return, China began to take resources from CA. This cemented Chinese presence in the region. From 2000 to 2010, India firstly continued to exercise its Look North Policy. As US was unleashing its global war on terror and was curbing extremism and fundamentalism in the region, all regional players like India, China, Russia, and the CA republics supported the US in the endeavour since all of them were affected by extremism. India’s strategic interests in the region began to evolve. With the launch of Operation Enduring Freedom by the US in Afghanistan, the US succeeded in removing Taliban. In Afghanistan, a democratic polity was established and Hamid Karzai became the first democratically elected President of Afghanistan. Thanks to US support, India began to play an increasingly important role in the nation-building process of Afghanistan. As Indian presence in Afghanistan increased, India also realised that Afghanistan could act as a bridge to connect India with CA.
Case Study INSTC (International North–South Transit Corridor) It is a multimodal transport network of rail, road and water transport connecting India, Iran and Russia. It was initiated in 2000 and was ratified in 2002. India has been very keen on the INSTC as it will help India in integrating itself deeply in CA without Pakistani logistical support. It also helps India counter the one belt one road initiative of China. The trade costs shall be lowered and it will take less time circumventing many regions along the way. In May, 2013, the Indian shipping and Road Transport Minister signed an MoU with Iran to develop charter ports. The construction of the Chabbar port is a step towards the operationalisation of the INSTC. In September, 2015, at a meeting in Delhi, a legal framework for transit and customs had also been agreed upon. The Indian Foreign Trade Policy 2015–2020 also made a pitch for INSTC.
India realised that Afghanistan and Iran are the two focal points for engagement with CA. Afghanistan has no access to sea, which is where Iran steps into the picture. Afghanistan is a land-locked country. But Iran has access to waters and also borders Afghanistan. Since 2010, India has given effect to the–CCAP to strategically reconnect with CA not only for getting resources to sustain own growth, but also to provide CA with an alternative market to China. Today, Indian strategic interests in CA are as follows: https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Case Study India and CA–Energy Cooperation, Challenges, and Geopolitics Since the end of the Cold War, energy security has become a key goal of Indian Foreign Policy and India has realised that the successful development of the Indian economy would depend upon access to reliable energy. CA has gained prominence in Indian energy security policy due to historical ties and geographical proximity. India is exploring options of transporting energy from CA through pipelines. TAPI and IPI pipelines are two projects envisaged (discussed in the subsequent chapters). The pipeline diplomacy has two core challenges. First, India lacks a direct geographical access to CA. Geopolitically; one challenge for India in the pipeline diplomacy arises from the intentions of Russia and USA. The strategy of USA is to ensure that CA remains independent and it intends to support new pipelines that reduce the Russian monopoly on energy resources of CA. On the other hand, Russia wants to maintain its energy superpower status and Russia favours linking of Russian energy policies with the policies of CA as it intends to establish a Eurasian Gas Alliance in the long run. The challenge for India is that how it manages the divergent thinking of Russia and USA with respect to the energy sector of CA. Secondly; the pipelines pass through a volatile territory of Afghanistan and Pakistan before entering India, thereby multiplying the security costs. India, in 2017, has shown interest in the extension of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline through Ashkelon Eilat segment where the pipeline will transport oil via Turkey to Eilat port in Israel. India plans to ship the oil to Mumbai from Eilat. This segment of the pipeline will cut the time from 40 to 19 days to transport oil.
Final Analysis CA is important for India at three levels namely—historical, geopolitical and economic. Since the end of the Cold War, CA has emerged as a zone of geopolitical competition by Russia, China, and USA. India and USA have a shared strategic interest of ensuring that CA does not become an area of influence of any one power. The core interest of India is to ensure that CA does not become a part of the Islamic belt spreading radicalism. To ensure this, for India, limiting the influence of Pakistan in CA would remain a core policy objective. At the security level, India would not want Pakistan to use CA as a territory to maintain strategic depth against India. Some of the diplomats, in interview with the author, also assert that India needs to ensure that USA or China also do not use CA as a region to limit the regional influence of India. India has decided to deepen its security cooperation with CA to keep a check on rising narcotic-terrorism as well. To achieve the same, India is https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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engaging deeply with Tajikistan and Afghanistan to ensure regional stability. In the quest to seek regional stability, India has cooperated with Russia, USA, and Iran. R&AW believes that the key to regional stability of CA lies with Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang Autonomous Region (XAR). India has been engaging with the Uighurs since the ancient times and till 1950’s India also had a consulate in Kashgar. Today R&AW has presence in Bishkek, Almaty, and Dushanbe where vital strategic assets have been established to maintain contacts with the Uighurs. This has given India a big leverage to maintain regional stability. Now India has become a member of the SCO. India will now play an important role in stabilizing the region through the SCO. Thus, to conclude, the core goals of India in CA are energy, culture, and prevention of terrorism to India, maintaining regional stability and explore new export markets. To achieve these, India is adopting a two-point strategy. One, it is engaging with each individual CA state under the CCAP and secondly, is cooperating with regional players to enhance its own presence in the region.
Case Study India, its Quest for a Northern Strategy and Failure to Understand the ‘Local Rules’ India has engaged with CA to keep a check on Pakistan in CA and Afghanistan. Post1998, India has engaged with CA perceiving the area as an extended neighbour in the north and has used the engagement as a tool for asserting its position as a rising responsible great power. Though India and CA states have some common goals that range from maintaining stability to prevention of rise of militancy, but India has failed to appreciate the ‘local rules’ of CA (Alexander Cooley). The issue of Ayni air base in the chapter of India-Tajikistan relation’s chapter ahead will demonstrate that India received a big blow to its regional dream of base politics. The debacle at Ayni primarily happened due to neglect of local rules by India. The failure to understand the way CA states work (their local rules) has led to failure of assertion of a strategy to assert power. This has prevented India to play a stronger role in CA.
STRATEGIC INTERESTS OF OTHER PLAYERS IN CA USA and its “Freedom Agenda” to Economic Incentives The relation of US and CA during the Cold War was limited to educational exchanges and technical assistance for projects. The USA has had two-fold interests in CA. Firstly, when CA became independent of Russian control at the end of the Cold War, the USA had helped integrate CA to Europe. The US thought was dominated by the fact that CA can be an effective route to bypass the gas pipelines in Russia. The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is one such manifestation. Secondly, after 9/11, US has used the geopolitical location of CA to curb extremism by establishing air bases and military logistic bases in the region. The Bush administration favoured strong relations with CA as the region provided the needed access to the US to Afghanistan. The US signed security frameworks with states of CA and also aggressively pushed for domestic political reforms. Though the US has tried to export democracy in the region, it has met with tremendous resistance as witnessed in the Andijon violence in Uzbekistan in 2005 and Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyz Republic. The resentment to interference of USA in domestic issue of CA states led to https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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eviction of US from the Karshi-Khanabad (K2) base. The US learned a lesson that if it wanted to stay in CA, it had to accept the local rules of CA. The CA states want to preserve their authoritarian regimes. They don’t want any power to challenge their domestic power structure. China and Russia too are both comfortable in dealing with such authoritarian regimes and they too would not prefer democracy in CA. Since 2008, the US policy has been not to advice CA states on political matters but continue the security engagement. The opening up of the Northern Distribution Networks (NDN) for withdrawal from Afghanistan has led scholars (Fredrick Starr calls it the Greater Central Asia Project-GCAP of USA) to assert that doing so would be akin to transform the region by reviving the ancient silk road to access Afghanistan. The basic interest of the US is to reduce the influence of China and Russia in CA but it has shown no real interest to assert hegemony in the region. US prefers to engage with India as engaging with India allows US to balance Russia and China.
Russia’s Quest for a Privileged Role and Structural Challenges The Russian interest in the region can be studied through the prism of the Cold War and a vast network of pipelines to supply oil and gas to Europe. For almost a decade after the Cold War ended, Russia remained mired in its own domestic concerns. The absence of a major power player in the region gave China an opportunity to step into the shoes of the Russians during this period. Russia re-emerged as a player after the coming of Vladimir Putin as he began to re-assert authority and aura in the post-Soviet space. After the 9/11, Russia decided to cooperate with USA in the GWOT. Doing so provided Russia an opportunity to enhance its international image in the post-Cold War period. Russia also realized that if USA would knock down Taliban, it would indirectly benefit Russia, as doing so would weaken the terrorists who could create trouble for Russia in Caucasus. Despite a favourable public opinion in Russia about cooperation with USA, the relations began to take a dip when USA began to assert unilateralism (visible in unilateral decisions of the US to initiate the Iraq war and its decision in 2002 to withdraw unilaterally from ABM Treaty) compelling Russia to perceive US as a competitor in the post-Soviet space. Russia, responded to the new competitor through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), with Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Belarus being its current members and Afghanistan and Serbia being observer states. The CSTO was positioned by Russia as a challenger to the NATO. The economic arm of the CSTO is the Eurasian Economic Community modelled on the lines of EU. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) also provides a similar platform to Russia along with China to keep a check on US influence in CA. Russia certainly does not want US hegemony or interference in CA. After the Andijon Violence in Uzbekistan in 2005, Russia and Uzbekistan concluded a treaty where Russia would provide assistance to Uzbekistan if there were any military aggressions by a third party. This treaty clearly supports the arguments we have evolved for Russian interest in CA. Russia is not interested in reviving its Cold War type rule in CA nor is interested in emulating the French colonial pattern of engagement with Africa but prefers to establish a policy to legalize its regional primacy through CSTO and Eurasian Economic Community. Russia has allowed the states of CA to engage with external powers but is simultaneously cementing its own presence in the region through new blocks. Russia however witnesses a bigger challenge from China than the US in CA. Though initially Russia and China both https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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decided to cooperate in CA to keep US under check, but Russia was alarmed to see how China flexed its economic muscles to engulf CA into its orbit completely. The rising international profile of the SCO is also frustrating the Russians. A scholar named Stephen Kotkin of Princeton University has asserted that as China is making no compromises in the economic and security agendas of its engagement with CA, there could be a possibility that Russia could emerge as a junior partner of China in the near future. Russia would certainly not like to envisage such a future.
China’s Great Leap Westward, Defining a Regional Security Agenda and Splittism Policy The Chinese follow a very resource-centric policy in CA. However, China also knows that CA is a background for Russian activities, and it therefore cannot assert any hegemony in CA as this may upset Russia. China cooperates with Russia in CA to ensure that Russia is not antagonised. Just as China takes resources from CA, it also does the same from Russia. In 2014, Russia and China signed a long-term gas supply deal. However, the Chinese also have another interest in CA. Way back in 1759, China took over the region of Xinjiang, consisting majorly of ethnic Muslims, and made it a part of China. Since 1759, the ethnic Muslims of Xinjiang, called Uyghur, have resisted Chinese hegemony. In the Inter-War period, the Xinjiang region was called as the East Turkestan Republic (ETR). In 1934, ETR was absorbed by China. The Northern part of the ETR, from 1945-1949 was a satellite area of the Soviets. In 1949, this region too was brought under China and since then China has controlled the region as XAR by following the official doctrine of three inseparable ties. Under the doctrine, China asserts that one minority group cannot live without the other like Han Chinese cannot live without the minorities while minorities cannot live without the Han Chinese. The Chinese government has deliberately increased the population of the Han Chinese in the XAR while using force (the biggest operation being in 1998 under the Strike Hard Campaign) to suppress the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, East Turkestan Liberation Organisation, and Uighur Liberation Organisation. Post-1950s, the Chinese government deliberately increased the presence of ethnic Han Chinese in Xinjiang. This was done to make Han Chinese a majority and Uyghur a minority. This move again met serious resistance from the Uyghurs. After 1979, with the rise of Mujahedeen activity in Afghanistan, the Uyghur resorted to establishing linkages with extremist forces and began to increase violent attacks against Chinese presence in the region. Today, Uyghur militancy remains under control through cooperation with Central Asian states. Xinjiang province is strategically very important for China because it is a testing site for Chinese nuclear weapons. There is an underground nuclear testing facility in Lop Nor. China has also established a base for its nuclear ballistics in Xinjiang. Recent geological surveys have confirmed the presence of oil deposits in the region, making it all the more important for China in the future. China wants a stable and peaceful CA since it faces trouble in Xinjiang province. The Xinjiang Autonomous Region (XAR) of China borders Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The XAR is a multi-ethnic region having not only the Uighurs but also 55 other ethnic groups. Uyghur militancy in China is a form of Islamic extremism. China understands that an unstable CA can cause a stir in the Uyghur militancy, which will, in turn, destabilize China. Thus, China seeks to neutralise these threats under the umbrella of https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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SCO. China has also initiated a Go West campaign also known as the Great West Development Programme to modernize XAR. The states of CA remain crucial in the Go West campaign and to contain the three evils. CA, post 2005, once again emerged as a zone of competition. China also is not comfortable in directly working with the West in Afghanistan and has adopted a hedging strategy. China has developed proximity with ISI of Pakistan and through ISI is in indirect touch with the Taliban. This indirect route to reach Taliban gives China a security guarantee of its investments in Afghanistan and a tool to prevent Taliban to play mischief in XAR. CA has emerged as an area of the new Great Game. Publicly US asserts that CA is not the zone of influence of Russia but behind the scene, it has acknowledged to Russia that Russia has ambitions in CA. China has publicly stated that CA is the special sphere of influence of Russia but, on the ground it has created its own rules on security and economic engagement. If CA is the backyard of Russia, the Chinese have started to redraw the fences in the backyard.
Case Study Why did China Create SCO? From 1996 to 2001, Shanghai-5 was used as a tool to resolve issues and demilitarise borders. The discussions in the group were fruitful enough leading to the group to announce, in 2000, to enhance the discussions beyond border issues to include issues related to separatism and extremism. This lead to a new dialogue on multiple security centric issues under a new rubric called the SCO (established on 15th June, 2001). SCO works on the principle of credit attribution as a tool for self-promotion of the image of the organisation. The 9/11 was a game changer for the SCO and China seeing the new norms established by the GWOT, China conflated the agenda of Uighurs (in XAR) and ETIM with Al-Qaeda. This allowed China to cooperate with USA to make a sovereign issue of Uighurs in Xinjiang a frontline in USA’s GWOT. But, China also became fearful of rising USA’s presence in CA as it felt that a strong USA in CA could choke off energy supplies to CA. China began to believe that US presence in CA could be permanent and it could be used by the US as a springboard to destabilise XAR. China thought that strong US presence in CA is a tool of US to keep a check on China (through XAR). China responded to US game plan in June 2001 by institutionalising the Shanghai-5 to SCO. In June 2002 annual summit, China proposed the creation of Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) and made it a provision in the charter of the SCO. To ensure that US does not use unilateralism in CA, China, through the Article-2 of the SCO charter asserted that none of the member states of SCO will accept any unilateral interference in internal issues of CA by any external power. In 2005, when Askar Akayev of Kyrgyzstan was ousted by the Tulip revolution, Russia and China perceived such a regime change a handiwork of the CIA of the USA. China perceived that such external sponsored regime changes https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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and attempts for democratization could act fuel troubles in areas in China witnessing political dissent (namely XAR). The Chinese government even despatched researchers to Kyrgyzstan to study the causes of the Tulip revolution. The 2005 Astana summit of the SCO saw Uzbekistan to evict US from the K2 base (decision taken by Uzbeks on pressure from Russia and China). The US perceived the Uzbek decision as a handiwork of Russia and China to use non-military tools to undermine US policies.
Case Study Pakistan and the Torkham Gate, 2016 Pakistan is a key player in CA along with Afghanistan. However, Afghanistan and Pakistan have been having a border dispute over the acceptance of the Durand Line since the last 60 years. In June, 2016, Pakistan decided to install a gate at the Torkham border. This gate restricts the entry of people from Pakistan to Afghanistan to reach CA. Such decisions may help Pakistan in the short run, but in the long run, may end up largely isolating Pakistan as it is restricting its own integration with CA. A regional consensus needs to evolve for Central Asia–South Asia (CASA) partnership, of which Pakistan may consider becoming an active member.
CHALLENGES FACED BY INDIA Apart from the challenges of extremism discussed at length in the previous sections, there are other challenges, like that of diminished trading practices, that the ministry addressed by launching the FOCUS–CIS programme, with specialised attention to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS countries) including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. Trade has increased with CA due to this programme.
The second challenge is at the level of transport. CA is a landlocked mass. This makes it difficult for CA to connect to international markets as also for India to connect to CA. There is a strongly felt need for land connectivity in CA. The old Silk Route was certainly one option, but the security situation, unresolved border conflicts and prolonged negotiations have compelled India to explore alternative routes to reach CA. India uses these four routes to reach CA at present. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Case Study Is Iran the Lynchpin for India in CA? In 1992–93, in a bilateral meeting, India and Iran established the India–Iran Joint Ministerial Commission, whereby the Indian Commerce ministry agreed to undertake studies to see the feasibility of a route to CA via Iran. Studies found that Iran had a well-defined and established infrastructure in place which could be used for container movement. It had excellent road infrastructure for cargo, a stable law and order system to secure trade and the availability of dedicated freight railway networks. Thus, in 1995, India, Iran and Turkmenistan signed an MoU for rail-road access to CA from India via Iran. Over a period of time, India has invested in the Zaranj– Delaram highway and the International North–South Transit Corridor for engaging with CA via Afghanistan and Iran. There is also CASA–1000 project (Central Asia– South Asia 1000) in which India is not involved. CASA–1000 envisages electricity transmission from Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan by 2018.
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2 CHAPTER
India and Kazakhastan Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Basic background of Kazakhstan Origin of Indo–Kazak relationship Commercial diplomacy Technology diplomacy Analysis of PM visit in 2015 Future areas of cooperation Case Studies Tea trade in Indo–Kazak relations
BASIC BACKGROUND The ancient Silk Route connected Kazakhstan and India. The Silk Route passed through the territory of south Kazakhstan, via Shymkent and Zambul regions. As of today, Kazakhstan has a border with Russia and the Caspian Sea and it is a highly industrialised and resource-rich country. It has large tracts of land which are suitable for agriculture and wheat, cotton, apples, walnuts grow naturally in the country. It has huge deposits of oil and gas, along with reserves of uranium, gold and copper. Kazakhstan follows a multivector foreign policy with all countries in the world.
Post-Cold War, Kazakhstan has adopted a technocratic model of governance where it established clusters in each zone to boost resource-centric development of the regions. India and Kazakhstan established diplomatic relations in 1992. For India, Kazakhstan is both geopolitically and geo-strategically significant. It also possesses minerals and oil and gas to drive India’s growing economy. In 2009, Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan was the chief guest for Indian Republic Day celebration. India seized the opportunity to conclude a strategic Partnership Agreement with Kazakhstan and also signed a nuclear deal for peaceful civilian nuclear cooperation. The strategic partnership lays down the foundation of Indo–Kazakh Cooperation.
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COMMERCIAL AND OIL DIPLOMACY Kazakhstan is an oil and gas rich country, which is referred to as the Saudi Arabia of CA. Colossal oil and gas reserves are found in Abai and Satpayev reserves in Alikekmola and Kurumangazy blocks. The commercial significance of Kazakhstan for Indian foreign policy can be inferred from the fact that four Indian premiers (P V Narsimha Rao, Vajpayee, Manmohan and Modi) have visited Kazakhstan since the Cold War ended. In 1992, an inter-governmental commission on trade, economic, technology and cultural cooperation was established (IGC). The Indo–Kazakh IGC is an institutional mechanism to promote bilateral trade. In the latest meeting of IGC in 2014, India completed negotiations on oil exploration in Abai Oil block in Kazakhstan. Abai block possesses 387 million tonnes oil. In 2005, India and Kazakhstan have also established a business forum which identifies specific areas to enhance cooperation in the bilateral negotiations under the IGC. The countries have also decided to jointly undertake oil exploration. The oil based relationships with Kazakhstan will now be explored in two ways. Firstly, India may have to participate directly in its future as a sole developer of oil. Secondly, it may also explore oil as a consortium partner. This will enhance the prospects of cooperation to achieve energy security of India. The OVL has set its sight on the Satpayev oil field where it owns 25% stake at present. As far as trade commodities are concerned, India exports pharma products, coffee, textiles, and engineering goods, while importing iron, zinc, steel, sulphur and lime. Prominent Indian firms have presence in Kazakhstan. For instance, L&T has an office in Astana while Tata, Apollo and Punj Lloyd also are present. In 1995, Mittal Steel had acquired Karmet Steel Plant and it is today managed as Ispat Karmet.
Case Study India–Kazakhstan and Tea Trade India was always one of the leading tea exporters to Kazakhstan. However, in recent times, the tea trade has declined. India’s overall tea exports have gone down due to quantity and marketing related issues. Poor marketing campaign has been identified as a single most important reason responsible for the declining exports. Some steps have been taken in the recent times to give a boost to Indian teas exports. The Tea Board of India, along with the Indian mission, has organized tea festivals in Almaty and Astana. These kind of measures have, to some extent, strengthened the tea exports but the trade has not yet reached its earlier peak.
NUCLEAR COOPERATION AND TECHNOLOGY DIPLOMACY There are two aspects to the technology-based relations between the two countries. In 2009, the two nations concluded a civilian nuclear deal. As per the MoU signed between Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL) and Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan shall be https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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supplying India with Uranium for civilian use. There shall be cooperation at the level of nuclear medicine and radiation therapy for healthcare. Kazakhstan has the second largest Uranium reserves in the world. This nuclear deal has led to India importing Uranium for its nuclear power plants. Kazakhstan also has the Baikonur Cosmo drome, a very important space research centre controlled by the Kazakhstan National Space Agency with which the ISRO signed a MoU in 2011 for technology transfer. At the knowledge sharing level, another area for Indo–Kazakh cooperation has been agriculture. Kazakhstan has made great progress in agriculture. It has achieved record production in wheat but faces severe shortages in milk and fertilizers. India has decided to assist Kazakhstan in white revolution.
ANALYSIS OF INDIAN PRIME MINISTER’S VISIT—2015 In 2015, Indian PM Narendra Modi visited Kazakhstan and gifted Nursultan Nazarbayev a set of books based on religions born in India, which included the stories of Guru Gobind Singh, Bharabahu Kalpasutra and Ashtasahasrika Prajnaparamita and a Persian version of Valmiki Ramayana. The PM paid a visit to the Nazarbayev University and inaugurated the Indo–Kazakh Centre of Excellence in Information Technology.
In 2009, when the Indo–Kazakh nuclear deal was signed, Kazakhstan agreed to provide India Uranium for a period of five years. As per the contract of 2009, the term for Uranium supply ended in 2014. During the prime ministerial visit, a fresh agreement was concluded whereby Kazakhstan will now provide 5000 tons of Uranium to India from 2015 to 2019. At the economic level, India committed its participation in Expo 2017 meet and will cooperate with Kazakhstan in the field of renewable energy. Kazakhstan has joined hands with the universities in India for youth exchange programmed over the next five years and it has identified 26 projects to cooperate upon, including a gas turbine plant and a solar plant. Sectoral cooperation is to be enhanced through cooperation between JSC Invest India and JSC Kaznex Invest (JSC stands for joint stock company). A joint study group has been established to explore the possibility of a FTA also. At the defence level, the two countries have reached a conclusion to achieve the following.
FUTURE AREAS OF COOPERATION During the rule of Mughal emperor Humayun, a person by the name of Mirza Mohammad https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Haider Dulati was the governor of Kashmir. Mirza Mohammad is not only a symbol of our past relationship but he has been, in recent times, branded in Kazakhstan as a national hero. India needs to use this cultural icon to indulge in cultural diplomacy. Another important area is defence. There are many old, idle and abandoned military industrial complexes in Kazakhstan that India may use for its own benefit. India can explore imparting naval training to the Kazakhstani navy for anti-piracy operations.
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3 CHAPTER
India and Kyrgyz Republic Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Basic background Origin of Indo–Kyrgyz relations Commercial diplomacy Defence cooperation Analysis of PM’s visit in 2015 Future areas of cooperation Case studies Medical education and assistance Tulip revolution Soft diplomacy
BASIC BACKGROUND Kyrgyzstan is a small yet very progressive republic. Since 2010, it has stabilised as a nation after some initial differences and problems due to the Tulip Revolution from 2004 to 2010. In the years following the end of the Cold War, Kyrgyz has opened up its economy for foreign investment, yet remaining a predominantly agrarian economy. It has a huge gold mine in Kumtor from where gold is exported and is also the third largest producer of mercury in the world after Singapore and China. Kyrgyz is a country that is also very rich in hydroelectricity power potential (HEP). India and Kyrgyzstan opened up diplomatic relations in 1992. The two nations not only celebrated 20 years of diplomatic relations in 2012 but the first India–Central Asia Track–II diplomatic dialogue also happened to take place in Bishek, where India announced its Connect CA policy for a renewed engagement with the region.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY Kyrgyz Republic has a skilled workforce but needs foreign investment in agriculture, transport and HEP. The leadership in Kyrgyz is progressive and pro-industry and the Kyrgyz currency is also convertible. In 2009, India and Kyrgyzstan concluded an MoU on agriculture and India subsequently assisted Kyrgyzstan in the setting up of a potato procurement plant in Talas. This plant undertakes chips production and gives locals employment. In 2014, the Indian government also gifted a computerised tomography machine to the National Centre for Cardiology and Internal Medicine in Kyrgyzstan. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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India has been extending lines of credit for industrial unit establishment and modernisation. Under the Indian credit facility, an oil and diesel filling station was established in Osh. India exports pharma products, tea, and machinery while importing non-ferrous metals, raw hides, and leather. Tourism has been one of the important aspects of our growing relations. India is providing training to Kyrgyz nationals in the hospitality and tourism sector. Kyrgyzstan has regularly participated in the Surajkund fair in Delhi.
Case Study Medical Tourism, Education and Assistance A lot of Indian students in recent years have begun to go to Kyrgyzstan for MBBS education. Moreover, there is a need for recognition of degrees of the two countries bilaterally. Indian students prefer Kyrgyzstan because of lesser costs involved in medical education. India also assisted Kyrgyz with the Mountain Biomedical Research Centre, which had been established with assistance of DRDO. The centre aims to study multiple possible acclimation methods. India has also been providing assistance to establish a super speciality hospital and diagnostic centre in Kyrgyzstan.
DEFENCE DIPLOMACY There is a JSC Dastan in Bishek and it is the only functional defence production unit of Kyrgyzstan. Dastan was established by the Russians and is producer of naval weapons, rocket systems and torpedoes. Since the 1990s, the Indian navy and DRDO have established relations with Dastan. India also maintains relations with Joint Stock Company ULAN–Torpedo Range (UTR). The Russians had built UTR in 1943 for the production of naval armaments and submarine parts. India has been associated with UTR since 1997 and Indian Navy has both been procuring torpedoes from Dastan and undertaking tests at UTR. The erstwhile Indian Defence Minister, A K Antony, had visited UTR in 2011. The DRDO is presently providing assistance for the redevelopment of the facility.
Case Study Tulip Revolution During the Cold War, Kyrgyzstan was under Russian control. It is a clan-based society where the Soviets had managed to effectively control all clans in a unified set up. Since the end of the Cold War, Kyrgyz has been moving towards a democracy and till date has witnessed two uprisings. Since the end of Cold War, Kyrgyz had been ruled by Askar Akayev. He showed authoritarian tendencies and was overthrown in 2004 by the Tulip Revolution. Akayev was replaced by Kurmanbek Bakiyev. In 2010, Bakiyev was ousted for same reasons as his predecessor and finally since 2011, Almazbek Sharshenovich Atambayev has been in power.
ANALYSIS OF INDIAN PRIME MINISTER VISIT—2015 The Indian PM in 2015 visited Kyrgyz and met Almazbek Atambayev. The PM visited the victory movement in Bishek and paid homage to Kyrgyz martyrs. He also gifted the Kyrgyz President a fine silk hand-knotted carpet. The PM also visited the Mountain Biochemical Research Centre and initiated the next phase of Indo–Kyrgyz cooperation. He https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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also launched the telemedicine link to connect hospitals in Kyrgyz with Apollo and AIIMS in India.
Case Study Soft Diplomacy Khwaja Syed Mohammad Qutubuddin Bhaktiyar Kaki was born in the city of Osh in Kyrgyz. He popularised the Chishti order and ideology of Moinuddin Chishti in Delhi. He was a very popular Sufi who conveyed a message of universal brotherhood and peace and charity during the rule of Aibak and Iltutmish in India. Continuing this legacy of peace and brotherhood, India played a fine card of soft diplomacy in 2015, and when the Indian PM visited Kyrgyz, he unveiled a statue of Mahatma Gandhi.
FUTURE AREA OF COOPERATION The first area of potential cooperation is tourism. Kyrgyz is rightly called the Switzerland of the East. India is already providing hospitality training to the Kyrgyz youth. This area can be strengthened in future. India can invest FDI in the hospitality sector of Kyrgyz. Another important area is agriculture. Kyrgyz has a complete ban on the use of fertilizers. They only resort to organic farming. India can share best practices in this regard for the mutual development of both.
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4 CHAPTER
India and Tajikistan Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Basic background Commercial diplomacy Analysis of PM visit 2015 Case studies Indian security interest in Tajikistan—Agni airbase and Farkhor
BASIC BACKGROUND Tajik is a small Central Asian republic and borders Afghanistan. The strategic importance of the nation is due to its proximity to Afghanistan. India established diplomatic relations with the country in 1994. It is a nation rich in hydroelectric power potential (HEP). During the time of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the strategic significance of Tajik territory for India increased and India played a crucial role in Tajik to support of the Northern Alliance. India established a military hospital in Farkhor and used the airbase at Agni for assistance. As the US withdrew from Afghanistan, the significance of Tajikistan will increase again in future.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY The institutional architecture for commercial diplomacy with Tajik is as follows:
India exports pharmacy products, iron and meat products while it imports aluminium, cotton and essential oils. The trade between the two is mostly suitcase trade. This means that individual retailers from Tajikistan come to India and purchase woollens, leather products and pharma products and go back to do direct retail in Tajikistan. India has been providing lines of credit to Tajikistan for multiple products.
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The lines of credit by India has been used by Tajiks for establishment of an IT Centre in Bedil with assistance from C-DAC (Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, India). The monetary assistance is also used for oral polio vaccines and purchase of ambulances. As Tajikistan is a country rich in hydroelectricity, India’s BHEL and National Hydel Power Corporation have been working on HEP plants in Varzob–1 and Sangtuda–1, with some firms, namely Marwis Private Limited and Valpro Group, exploring the oil and gas sector in Shcurab and Fan Yagnob. Tanya constructions have also bagged projects for repairing of air strips of Khujand and Dushanbe.
ANALYSIS OF INDIAN PRIME MINISTER VISIT—2015 In 2015, the Indian PM visited Tajikistan and gifted Emomali Rahman a miniature painting of the tomb of the 17th century Indian poet Abdul Qadir Bedil. For the first time ever, Tajikistan organised a joint event on agriculture to showcase the needs of Tajikistan and forge international partnerships. The Indian PM also participated in the event. The PM also unveiled a statue of Tagore and concluded agreements to cooperate on multiple issues with special focus on agriculture. An agreement to establish computer laboratories was concluded and promotion of cultural cooperation was envisaged.
Case Study Indian Security Interests in Tajikistan (Ayni and Farkhor) In Tajikistan, there is an airbase at Ayni that had been developed by the Tajiks and Soviets. The Soviets used the airbase during the Cold War, but since 1989, it had been left without use. After the hijacking of the IC–814 Indian aircraft, the Indian Government instructed the R&AW to find a suitable airbase near Afghanistan for any eventualities. The R&AW, after its basic study, zeroed down upon Ayni airbase. Tajikistan and Afghanistan share a 1400 km long boundary. In 2002, after a bilateral defence cooperation pact was signed between India and Tajikistan, India began certain developments at the Ayni airbase.
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The aim was to deploy these aircrafts to train Tajik air force pilots. However, due to certain reasons, in 2007, the Tajik Foreign Minister Harahon Zaripov officially declared that there is no Indo–Tajik cooperation at Ayni. One of the most likely reasons is the intervention of Russia so as to not allow India to have access to the airbase, despite India’s having pumped millions of dollars into reconstruction and refurbishment of Ayni. India, during the Taliban rule in Afghanistan (1996–2001), had also established a military hospital in Farkhor. The R&AW had been instrumental in the setting up of the military hospital and succeeded in even stationing some helicopters at the airstrip near Farkhor. As the US launched operation Enduring Freedom in 2001, the hospital was shut down and India opened a new hospital in South Tajikistan in the city of Qurghonteppa.
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5 CHAPTER
India and Turkmenistan Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Basic background Commercial diplomacy Analysis of PM’s visit, 2015 Case Studies TAPI pipeline and energy security
BASIC BACKGROUND India’s relations with the Turks go back to the ancient times, with the Silk Route initially connecting the two lands. The Turkman Gate in Delhi remains as a symbol of honour to the Turk soldiers. Turkmenistan is located near the Caspian Sea and its location itself enhances its geostrategic significance due to large tracts of natural gas reserves. Turkmenistan has declared permanent neutrality at the level of foreign policy and even the UN recognises it as a neutral state. It grows cotton and wheat and is a major cotton exporter. India initiated diplomatic relations with Turkmenistan in 1992. In 1995, India initiated a programme to train Turkmenistan’s diplomat and since 1996, there has been a track–II dialogue for peace and security.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY The institutional architecture is as follows:
India exports pharmacy products, machines, and plastics while importing inorganic chemicals, raw cotton and synthetics. The fifth IGC happened in 2015 in Ashgabat and the dominant theme was TAPI–pipeline (see case study for details). A lot of Indian companies are into joint ventures in multiple sectors in Turkmenistan.
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India has provided education-based support to Turkmenistan. India has provided Akash tablets and has also established an IT centre for IT skill training. ITEC scholarships are also provided to students in Turkmenistan. In 2014, the Indian Council for Cultural Relations organised a ‘Namaste Turkmenistan’ programme as a part of cultural diplomacy.
Case Study TAPI Pipeline and Indian Energy Security In 1995, a private firm named Bridas Corporation floated an idea of a pipeline from Turkmenistan to India. In 2008, the Asian Development Bank conducted a feasibility study and this led to a TAPI framework being signed for export of natural gas from Turkmenistan. The modalities were fine tuned in 2010 in Ashgabat where an intergovernmental agreement was concluded for the supply of natural gas from Daulatabad gas fields to Fazilka.
ANALYSIS OF INDIAN PRIME MINISTER’S VISIT—2015 The Indian PM visited Turkmenistan and met Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow. He gifted Gurbanguly a special handcrafted horse saddle. In Ashgabat, the PM inaugurated a traditional medicine and yoga centre. He also concluded a bilateral defence cooperation agreement. Under this, there shall be regular high level bilateral defence visits between the two nations.
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6 CHAPTER
India and Uzbekistan Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Basic background Commercial diplomacy Tashkent Declaration Analysis of PM visit in 2015 Final analysis of Indian PM visit to CA in 2015
BASIC BACKGROUND Uzbekistan is located between Amu Darya and Syer Darya, and has a lot of fertile land. Agriculture is the core activity and is dominated by cotton and wheat. East Uzbekistan is mineral-rich, especially in the Fergana valley region. India and Uzbekistan have diplomatic relations since 1991. The two interact in very broad areas ranging from economic interaction to technology to small and medium enterprises (SME). After the visit of Narsimha Rao in the 1990s, cultural cooperation under ICCR has been frequent and a cultural centre has been established in Tashkent. India has an IT centre in Tashkent University. Since 2011, the two are strategic partners.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY In 1992, the India–Uzbekistan IGC was established. The cooperation led to a Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement being signed. India extends lines of credit and cooperates predominantly in IT and pharmacy sector. A lot of Indian firms are present in Uzbekistan.
India exports pharma products, meat, and coal tar while importing fertilizers, silk, pulses, and spices. Uzbekistan is a cotton producer and has been inviting FDI in textiles. An Indian firm Spandex is a big player in textiles. In 2011, the two nations signed an MoU in textiles to promote and enhance cotton production. A visit by former President Dr APJ Abdul Kalam led to signing of Tashkent declaration.
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India, on priority, is helping with the establishment of the chemical sector of Uzbekistan. India has also purchased six Ilyushin–78 (IL–78) aircrafts from Tashkent Aviation Production Association.
ANALYSIS OF THE INDIAN PRIME MINISTER’S VISIT—2015 In 2015, the Indian PM visited Tashkent and met President Karimov. He gave Karimov a compilation of the Khan-i-Khusrau by Amir Khusrau.
While addressing Indologists, the PM appreciated the completion of 50 years of Hindi broadcasting by Uzbek Radio. The two nations agreed to establish joint working groups on terror. Uzbekistan has also agreed to supply 2000 million tons of Uranium to India. The two sides have concluded an MoU on defence cooperation and cyber security. India has agreed to join the Ashgabat Agreement which was signed in 2011 and is an international transit corridor between CA and Persian Gulf. In July, 2016, India sent its approval to the repository state of Turkmenistan.
FINAL ANALYSIS In 2015, there have been visits by the Indian PM to all the five CA republics. India has brought the region back into its foreign policy considerations. As the US troops withdraw from Afghanistan, the significance of the region will increase. The prime ministerial visits have conveyed to all these nations the importance India attaches to all of them. An important aspect of the visits was the carefully selected choice of gifts the Indian PM presented his counterparts with. For example, the Turkmenistan head of state, Gurbanguly, is an avid horse rider and is very fond of the Turkman horse breed, Akul Terke. Aptly, the PM gifted him a saddle of leather. In all, 21 agreements were signed during the visits, ranging from connectivity to energy to combating terrorism and defence cooperation. Due to the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS), no doubt security and defence dominated the theme in all countries. Advancement in the TAPI pipeline, Uranium supply from Nursultan Nazarbayev and permission granted to the OVL to drill in Satpayev remain some of the major achievements of the premier visits.
End of Part Questions 1. To what extent does India’s Look North Policy help India meet the challenges in CA at the end of the Cold War? Why did the policy fail? 2. Why did India initiate the Connect CA Policy? Outline its key features. 3. How will India be able to stabilize the region of CA as a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation? 4. To what extent does India’s CA policy synchronise with the other regional powers? https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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5. For India its engagement with CA is a litmus test for its global power aspirations. Examine. 6. Outline the broad contours of India’s engagement with each Central Asian Republic. 7. What are the major challenges India is likely to witness in its energy diplomacy with CA? 8. What are the fundamental differences in USA’s and Russia’s engagement in CA? What impact is it likely to have on Indian policy in CA?
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PART-C
1 CHAPTER
India and South East Asia Policy— Key Drivers
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical analysis of Indian engagement. Evolution and analysis of the Look East Policy. From the Look East to the Act East Policy. Analysis of key themes in Indian engagement. Regional relationships and their dimensions.
HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIAN POLICY The significance of South East Asia (SEA) as a strategic region for India’s security matrix was highlighted in 1941 when Japan invaded India by launching attacks during the World War–II. Recollection of these developments compelled K M Panikkar to advance the idea of collective security. Panikkar asserted that India should strive for establishing interdependence with SEA to ensure that it forms a sphere of co-prosperity with India at the centre of that sphere. Nehru always believed that India’s geographical location and its power could transform it into the pivot of Asia. When India became independent, a core element of its foreign policy was promotion of decolonisation. India always believed that imperialism not only facilitated economic-cum-political exploitation, but also promoted myriad forms of racism. India also opposed imperialism for strategic reasons. It believed that strategic autonomy can only be preserved if India dealt with states which were decolonised. Only decolonised states would give Indian an option to preserve autonomy of action in global affairs. India was concerned that even after the World War–II, colonial rule in Asia might continue as before, in which case, India’s quest for autonomy of action would not materialise. Thus, after India’s independence, it became a strong advocate of decolonisation. When Japan surrendered the control of Indonesia in 1945, the Dutch attempted to colonise Indonesia. India, along with Australia, took the question of Indonesia to the United Nations (UN) and after four years of intense diplomatic negotiations, the Dutch failed in their efforts. In January 1949, New Delhi organised the conference on Indonesia and forwarded the idea of an independent Indonesia. In February 1949, the UNSC too passed the final resolution for an independent Indonesia, thereby paving the way for the ousting of the Dutch. The issue not only brought India and Indonesia closer, but the two sides developed defence relations, with India beginning to train Indonesian army officers. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Simultaneously, India tried to materialise its decolonisation policy strategically in cases of states neighbouring Indo–China. As per the Geneva Accord on Indo–China, three international commissions of supervision and control with an Indian chairman for each were created for Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos. India used its decolonisation policy to seek independence for Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos. India also used its policy of non-alignment to build up relations with SEA. Burma and Indonesia were two states that also supported the non-alignment to ensure their stable existence. The British India had had SEA as its third largest trading partner. When India became independent, it had a decent trade with SEA. India, after independence, adopted an autarkic economic model. As India began to look inward, the South East Asian states began to adopt an export-led growth model. The SEA states began to seek support for industrialisation from the west and the USSR. Thus, due to different economic models, trade between India and SEA began to decline and all complementarities were lost. As India was a British colony, the British from India took a lot of workers to work in their other colonies. The British had colonised Burma and had taken Indians from South India belonging to Chettiar community to work in rice fields in Burma. The Chettiars constituted a large chunk of Indian immigrants to Burma. Burma, after independence from the British, initiated land reform policy (Burma for Burmans) and passed the Land Alienation Act of 1948. This policy of Burma affected the Indian immigrants and they looked up for support from India. Nehru took up the issue with Burmese PM U Nu at a non-official level. The concerns of the Chettiar community people could not be resolved. As a result, a lot of Chettiars began to return to India. Nehru did not take up the matter officially with the Burmese leadership as he feared losing Burmese support to nonalignment. He thought that if he took up the matter with Burma, it might perceive this as an interference by India in its internal affairs, which, in turn, would have repercussions on Burma’s continuance of support to non-alignment. Thus, for India, the strategic concern of Burmese support for non-alignment emerged as more important than the concerns of the Indian immigrant community. A similar issue had erupted in Malaya where a sizeable chunk of Indian community resided. After the independence of Malaya, their government passed multiple legislations that led to discrimination against the Indians. Nehru urged the Indians to display loyalty to their local governments and urged them to integrate with the local masses than raising their voices. He wanted India to be the light of Asia and an interlocutor between the West and Asia. This idea was not received well by the SEA states who felt that end of imperial control by Europe could lead to rise of neoliberalism by India. Nehru’s self-proclaimed leadership role in SEA created enormous suspicion amongst SEA states and some smaller states even began to feel that India might try and colonise them. Due to the adoption of a closed economic model, India was unable to provide any support for the economic growth of Asia. In 1962, after the Sino–India conflict, the SEA began to perceive that India might not be able to provide military security to any of the decolonised states either. Post 1962, India came to be perceived as a marginal player in the region till the end of Cold War. The 1960s saw a further deterioration of ties. In 1965, when India and Pakistan engaged in a conflict, Indonesia supported Pakistan. The alliance of Indonesia with Pakistan came as a big blow to India. In 1964, USA–Vietnam war began and India began to support Vietnam. India criticised USA presence, which was not well https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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received by SEA states. The states of SEA began to perceive India’s hostility towards USA as a part of its alliance with the USSR. In 1971, when India–USSR signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, the SEA fears got intensified further. As India picked up an anti-West fault line, it was completely isolated in 1967 when the ASEAN was created. The ASEAN was made to promote economic integration and has a pro-West tilt. After the 1971 war between India and Pakistan, Iran threatened India that any future attack on Pakistan would lead to retaliation by Iran on India as such an attack on Pakistan would be perceived as an attack on Iran as well. The SEA states began to feel that India was too fixated with war to be a potential player for engagement. In the subsequent period of 1971, when India resorted to military modernisation, it was perceived suspiciously by SEA states. The Indian response to Sri Lanka in 1980s on issue of Tamil minorities and its subsequent military intervention in Sri Lanka heightened the concerns of SEA states that began to feel that if ethnic Indians are mistreated, India may resort to military use. The PM of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, was a friend of Nehru and always favoured a deeper engagement with India and a larger role for India in Asia. He even urged India to test a nuclear weapon to balance China after China tested a weapon in 1964. When Singapore was created in 1965, Lee urged India to train the military officials of Singapore. He wanted India to not only have an Asian Monroe doctrine but favoured a deeper naval engagement of India in the region. However, a struggling India, defeated in 1962 and devastated in a conflict with Pakistan in 1965 (devastated due to domestic problems), had neither the material capabilities nor a strategic vision to achieve the dream envisaged by Lee Kuan Yew. Manmohini Kaul aptly summed up India’s relation with SEA and the ASEAN states by stating that India’s relations during the Cold War were a slew of missed opportunities, mistrust, misperception and bungling diplomacy. As the Cold War ended, India began to forge a closer relationship with the USA and began to improve relations with states which were allies and partners of the USA. As India embarked upon a path of open economy and liberalisation, the SEA stated emerged a natural choice for India for partnerships. In the late 1980s, China was becoming militarily assertive in the region and its military assertion on Paracel and Spratly islands had created a new sense of fear amongst the states of SEA. China was also exerting a strong influence on the ASEAN and many SEA states perceived it an attempt to dominate the ASEAN. The SEA states and ASEAN members initiated a Look West Policy to engage with India as a potential regional balancer. India responded positively and in 1991–92 announced a Look East Policy to engage with SEA at the politico-military level. India also began to integrate economically with ASEAN.
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As India opened up its economy and began to economically integrate with SEA, energy security became the core concern for India. To feed its rapidly growing economy, Indian began to explore options to import energy from Myanmar. India’s OVL began to explore offshore gas fields in Vietnam (the chapter on India–Vietnam relations ahead will elaborate on this). To promote development of India’s North East and maintain peace and stability, India has cooperated with both Myanmar and Bangladesh. During the recent visit of Sheikh Hasina in April 2017 to India, the two sides evolved a security-cum-defence partnership. Myanmar and India also cooperated with each other to carry out a surgical strike in 2015. Not only had PM Rao initiated the Look East Policy, but Gujaral also tried to bring India at a centre-stage in the region of Asia–Pacific with his Gujaral Doctrine. Under Gujaral Doctrine, India decided not to insist upon reciprocity in affairs with smaller states in the neighbourhood. The recent attempts to deepen ties with SEA and EA have taken an aggressive push with India’s Act East Policy. In conclusion, we may say that during much of the Cold War era, Indian policymakers ignored SEA. There were many reasons for the failure of India to establish ties with SEA. Initially, the Nehruvian idea to consolidate and establish Asia solidarity failed to take off. As majority of the SEA states feared communism, they showed faith in the ideology of the US. At the end of the Cold War, India’s Look East Policy was designed to attract investments from SEA and boost trade through market access. India also began integration with the ASEAN. During the Vajpayee regime, the Look East Policy II brought in a security dimension along with trade. Finally, during the Manmohan Singh era, an FTA was put in place for goods and services. The Modi government has renamed the Look East Policy as the Act East Policy with an intention to seek investments and keep a check on China. To achieve this, there has been a thrust towards deepening defence ties with Vietnam, Japan, Singapore, and Australia with focus on infrastructure creation in Myanmar.
EVOLUTION AND ANALYSIS OF LOOK EAST POLICY (LEP) In 1970s, the SEA region itself was yet to emerge as an economic magnet. Apart from India’s own protectionist policies, Myanmar was a closed economy and Bangladesh did not provide the needed transit. Ideologically too, India differed from SEA. Thus, due to differing priorities, India could not leverage its cultural ties with SEA. Things began to change at the end of the Cold War as ASEAN states adopted a Look West Policy to counterbalance the dominance of China. As India began to look towards the East it realised that its diaspora in SEA is very different from the Chinese diaspora. The economic profile of the Indian Diaspora in SEA was very low compared to the economically vibrant Chinese diaspora and migrants. India’s economic crisis in 1991 and the end of the Cold War led P V Narasimha Rao to give a strategic push to India’s engagement with SEA. An all-party consensus too began to emerge to improve ties with SEA based up cultural and spiritual affinities while economically integrating India into the region. Without wasting much time, India decided to recover the loss of the USSR by building up a relationship with the USA and allies of USA in SEA. As India adopted an open economy, India decided to learn the models from SEA. The Rao government officially launched the LEP in 1994 when Rao delivered a lecture during his visit to Singapore. In the first phase of the LEP, India decided to expand https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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economic ties with SEA and provide an answer to ASEAN’S search for an alternative to China in the grouping. LEP in Phase-I = South East Asia + Economic Integration The idea of LEP was to economically integrate with ASEAN. India wanted to attract investments from SEA to facilitate its domestic growth. As India and SEA had historical and cultural ties, and the LEP provided a bridge to the past. India also wanted to stabilise its North East which could eventually be used a springboard to reach SEA. Thus, India under LEP, began to prop up its diplomatic presence in the region.
The LEP of India was further enhanced during the Vajpayee government. Some scholars have called it Phase-II of the LEP. The second phase has focussed on enhancing security partnerships. The second phase also expanded the geographical sphere of India’s engagement in the region to include East Asia. A few scholars’ views could be helpful in our analysis here.
LEP-II = SEA + East Asia + Security + Economy
FROM LOOK EAST POLICY TO ACT EAST POLICY As the LEP paid rich dividends, India was not only able to economically integrate itself with the ASEAN but also able to secure an FTA in both goods (2010) and services (2014). The Indo–ASEAN trade reached $100 billion. In 2011, during her visit to India, Hillary Clinton urged India to not merely Look East but Act East. The suggestion was made at a time when the UPA government was in power. Ideologically, the Congress government was not very inclined towards deep liberalisation. Clinton’s suggestion of Act East demanded more action oriented economic integration with SEA and East Asia (EA). Nothing materialised during the UPA regime. In 2014, after the coming of the NDA government to power, the new Indian PM Narendra Modi, at the 12 Indo–ASEAN summit at Nay Pi Taw in Myanmar, announced the transition from LEP to the Act East th
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Policy (AEP). The basic theme of the AEP was to focus on integration with the ASEAN by improving connectivity with the ASEAN states. India, under the AEP, wants to promote connectivity, cultural ties and commercial ties with SEA and EA. India has invited the Head of the States of all 10 ASEAN Members as Chief guests for 2018 Republic Day celebrations in New Delhi as a part of outreach under AEP.
Under the AEP, India wishes to reinvigorate ties and explore strategic dimensions of its relationship with Vietnam, Singapore, and Myanmar. There is an enhanced focus on connectivity and increased levels of historical interaction. The aim is to have an accelerated engagement with the Asia-Pacific region at a strategic level with focus on transnational crimes, marine piracy, nuclear issues, and freedom of navigation the focus is upon improving connectivity at land, air, and maritime levels. India has contributed to three funds.
One of the core dimensions of the AEP is to also promote people relationships based upon civilizational links of common language, religion, tradition, dress and crafts. If LEP was about improving economic-cum-security relationship with SEA and EA, then AEP is about adding strategic content to the relationship across Asia-Pacific with focus on connectivity, culture and commerce. In 2015, India and Singapore concluded a strategic partnership agreement. India has also upgraded its strategic partnership with Vietnam, Japan and Malaysia.
Case Study How does Act East Policy (AEP) Realign Indian Foreign Policy along its Historical Axis Towards the East? In 2002, Vajpayee gave a lecture in Singapore where he asserted that India’s position in Asia-Pacific was a political fact. Modi in 2014 made it a reality by changing the Look East Policy {LEP} (which was centered around ASEAN) to Act East Policy (based on an extended cultural outreach). The AEP is different from the LEP as it focuses on building defense, cultural and economic partnerships with states in the Asia-Pacific region. Brahma Chellany asserts that AEP has enhanced India’s external prestige as an integral part of Indio-Pacific region. A key element of the AEP is that India has started internationalizing disputes in the Indo-Pacific region to psychological pressure on irritants (the recent mentions of South China Sea dispute in https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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bilateral statements between India-USA and India-France is a testimony to the fact). There is a rising consensus that US President Donald Trump may allow China to take charge of the Indo-Pacific and may reduce its own influence in the region. This may lead to India plough a lonely furrow. India has to hedge against this uncertainty by enhancing relations with the states in the Indo-Pacific. The AEP realigns Indian foreign policy along its historical axis towards the East. India is aggressively using the soft tool of Buddhist legacy to reclaim the unique historical leverage.
The North-Eastern states of India have been identified as a launch pad for the AEP. The region is envisioned as a Natural Economic Zone from where economic corridors are to be developed. The idea is to develop infrastructure in the North-eastern states to integrate them with CLMV states.
What makes the AEP different from the LEP is the action component. Under the AEP, India is also investing more diplomatic capital to boost strategic component of relationship with Japan, Australia, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore and Pacific-rim states. The future of the AEP will depend on how India uses the AEP to develop its North East to act as a springboard for connectivity. We can sum up the policies in the following diagram:
Case Study Look East Policy–When? There has been a serious concern that India never articulated the tenets of the LEP. There has been a criticism that the governments never pronounced or articulated the visions clearly for the public. The Rao government never explained what exactly the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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LEP stood for. S D Munni remarks that LEP was never spelled out. Moreover, the way it was carried out suggested that it was neither a reaction to geo strategy nor an articulated response to the post-Cold War period. India’s former foreign secretary Salman Haider says that the term LEP was rather an off-the-cuff slogan. He emphasises it was crafted to garner the attention of the media for Rao’s trip to South Korea in 1993. In fact, a predominant theory was that Rao coined the term during a lecture in Singapore in 1994. Haider further states that Rao never used the term LEP in the lecture, stating only that Asia-Pacific could potentially emerge as a springboard for India’s emergence to global markets. This is why there is no official date for the initiation of the LEP.
Case Study RCEP–Is it a Trade Pact that would hurt India? India is negotiating RCEP with fifteen countries (for detailed analysis-refer to Section-F, Chapter-2 of the book). In May 2017, at the Ministerial Conference for RCEP in Hanoi, a lot of pressure was applied on India to make concessions in goods, services and investments. At the level of trade in goods, India has offered that it will give up the three-tier tariff reduction. Under the three tier tariff reduction proposals, India has offered different coverage of tariffs. For members of ASEAN it is 65% tariff coverage for trade in goods while it is 42% tariff coverage for Australia, New Zealand and China. There is a pressure on India to accept higher product coverage for all trade partners. It is proposed to India that it should accept 92% coverage uniformly for all. India on the other hand has offered 80% coverage (instead of 90% proposed) with 75% for more developed players. There are studies done that show that if tariff cover from 92% to 80% product coverage is accepted, then the dairy sector of New Zealand will decimate the Indian dairy sector. There are pressures on India to push provisions in IPR beyond TRIPS that are likely to have serious consequences on the generic medicine sector in India. As protectionism in the West rises, India needs to make inroads into the RCEP without making compromises on agriculture, IPR and industrial sector.
ANALYSIS OF KEY THEMES IN INDIA AND SEA AND EA In this section, we shall adopt a thematic approach to India’s ties with SEA and EA. We will try to build upon the knowledge from the previous sections of the chapter to broaden our understanding.
Theme 1: Challenges and hurdles in India’s integration with SEA and EA Way back in 1946, in a memorandum to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in India, Nehru asserted that India lies at the centre of security in Asia and shall play a larger role in security of SEA. This vision was reiterated later by Lee Kuan Yew, who wanted India to be a balancer of forces in the region. India did take certain policy steps to promote and deepen ties with the region, but the ground reality is that there is a huge gap between what is promised and what is achieved on the ground. The Modi government’s shift to the AEP was undertaken with an intention to remedy the existing deficiencies but it also will require some major changes in the policy to get things moving. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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In the initial years of the British rule, there was a great enthusiasm amongst the nationalist scholars to establish cultural colonies in SEA as they perceived that the region had once functioned as a cultural progeny of India. Nehru too dreamt of organising a new forum to assert India as a lynchpin in affairs of SEA. Nehruvian diplomacy in Burma, Indo–China, Indonesia, Korean crisis and Vietnam were steps to assert the same, but, all strategies failed to achieve this ambitious pan-Asianism. The LEP and later the AEP are initiatives that have helped regain some of the lost space. India is now negotiating Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to establish the largest free trade bloc in the world. Yet India’s economic interaction with the region has not yielded results because of its stunted domestic growth. The FDI in retail has always met with stiff resistance in this regard. A deeper economic integration with SEA and EA is impacted due to a fragmented internal market of India. The new government in Delhi since 2014 has pushed for domestic reforms. ‘Make in India’ and GST are landmark achievements. Steps to boost up port infrastructure through the Sagarmala initiative have been launched. India’s bureaucratic hurdles and its officials’ discomfort with equity from foreign shores has demotivated SEA states. For example, in 1994, Singaporean PM Goh Chok Tong envisaged an alliance between Tata and Singapore Airlines, which could only materialise in January, 2015 with the launch of Air Vistara. The lack of progress in BIMSTEC and Makong–Ganga cooperation have caused much inconvenience. The major reason for lack of progress in the two organisations has been reluctance of India to develop its NorthEastern region. Though the AEP has raised the pitch, progress on the ground is still awaited. At the security level, India’s defence bureaucracy has failed to evolve plans to garner resources for the growth of the country. India’s oil exploration forays in SEA and mineral trade at foreign policy levels have not been synced with proper security for the sea lanes of communication.
Theme 2: Counter-terrorism Operations between India and ASEAN The ASEAN, through mechanisms like ASEAN Plus Three (APT), East Asia Summit (EAS) and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), divides the great powers of the platform for dialogue to ensure stability. Apart from other areas of engagement, India and the ASEAN today are cooperating with each other in counter-terrorism. In the period prior to 9/11, terrorism was also an agenda for discussion at a regional forum like ASEAN but only as a priority to be tackled at the national level. The ASEAN states ensured that they refrained from intervening in national strategies of member states. Post 9/11, the ASEAN faced the challenge of unifying all different approaches followed by member state to combat terrorism. On the side-lines of the 7 ASEAN summit in 2011 in Brunei, the ASEAN states adopted a declaration on Joint Action to counter terrorism. Subsequently, in 2011, the ASEAN Convention on Counter Terrorism (ACCT) was adopted. The ACCT delinked terrorism and religion and displayed sensitivities about the dangers posed by terrorism to global peace and security and the development of the region. The ACCT recognises that the ASEAN’s existence is not threatened by terrorism but terrorism may impact the longterm goals of the ASEAN. The ACCT also asserts that each sovereign member state may evolve their own laws to tackle terrorism and re-affirms a non-interventionist approach. The ASEAN has scrutinised terrorism as a transnational crime while allowing member states to implement their own approaches. It has limited interaction between the member states on political basis but has facilitated legal and technical cooperation. The member th
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states meet to strengthen the ACCT while allowing operational parts to be resolved by states. India and the ASEAN signed a Joint Declaration for co-operation to combat international terrorism in Bali in 2003. India, since 2009, has agreed to the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) work plan on counter terrorism and transnational crime.
In 2014, the ASEAN had already asserted that the ISIS was a threat not just to the Middle East but to the rest of the world. The future of Indo–ASEAN cooperation lies in how the two sides develop a plan to counter ISIS that affects the stability of both the ASEAN states and India.
Theme 3: Trade Potential between India and ASEAN India, under its AEP, has asserted that it aims to enhance commercial relations with the ASEAN region. During the Cold War, the main barriers to trade with the ASEAN included India’s inward-looking policies and lack of connectivity to promote land trade with Bangladesh and Myanmar. The slow pace of development in West Bengal and Northeast also acted as hindering factors. Thus, lack of infrastructure, connectivity and development at the borders hindered cross-border trade. Though India signed an FTA in services with ASEAN, the situation as of 2017 is that not all ASEAN states have ratified the FTA. It is understood that India could rectify its trade deficit with ASEAN in goods if the agreement on services is ratified by all states as India could capitalise on areas of its comparative advantage (that range from IT to higher education to medical tourism). To take maximum advantage of the trade with ASEAN, India needs to work upon its infrastructure and institutions of governance. To foster trade, India has been extending lines of credit as well. The poor rank of India in the ‘ease of doing businesses’ too had been a big hurdle to realise its potential—a situation that is now being addressed to redress the mechanisms involved.
Theme-4: ASEAN celebrates its 50th birthday in 2017–An assessment In 2017 ASEAN completed 50 years of Asian regionalism. When ASEAN was born in 1967, many believed that the organization will not be able to survive, yet it succeeded due to multiple reasons. Firstly, the most powerful binder was the anti-communism policy in the grouping. The five founding members (Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand) of ASEAN were open economies and used open economy as a tool to achieve economic integration. At the end of the Cold War, the erstwhile communist states of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam and Brunei made a transition to an open economy and entered ASEAN. ASEAN received a lot of flak from the West when it engaged with https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Myanmar as Myanmar was under a military rule. ASEAN however continued to engage with Myanmar as the core value of ASEAN was that trade and economic integration are good confidence building measures than isolation. It is due to this value of ASEAN that Myanmar was finally able to transition to a democracy. In contrast, the West has isolated Syria and Syria is unlikely to witness such a transformation. Today ASEAN has emerged as a reliable platform for geopolitical engagement in Asia. The success is rooted in Masyawarah and Mufakat (consultation and consensus) culture which has been championed by ASEAN. Today ASEAN has emerged as an integrated single market due to two key things: 1. Legal charter envisaging free movement of goods, services, capital and skilled labor (in 2007). 2. ASEAN Economic Community (in 2015). In September 2017, a Parliamentary Standing Committee in India headed by Bhupendra Yadav has suggested 69 ways to improve India-ASEAN trade diplomacy. The report asserts that India should allow ASEAN to access Indian markets in leather, pharmacy and textiles. A core recommendation was to increase the economic interaction so that ASEAN can play a major role in enhancing manufacturing sector of India. The committee has asserted that India needs to focus on creating corridor of connectivity and corridor of trade with ASEAN.
REGIONAL RELATIONSHIPS AND THEIR DIMENSIONS Survey of Security Relationship between India and Thailand In 2012, India and Thailand celebrated 65 years of diplomatic relations. In 2012, the Thai PM Yingluck Shinawatra was also the chief guest for the Republic Day celebrations in India. For Thailand, India is strategically located as a gateway to South Asia and the core of Thailand’s Look West Policy. Indo–Thai relations go back to the ancient times when Ashoka sent a mission to Swarnabhumi to spread Buddhism. This led to a rise of cultural exchanges between India and Thailand. In 1947, the two states established diplomatic ties and Thailand became an integral part of India’s Look East Policy. A key regional binder for India and Thailand is the BIMSTEC. The relations have been deep at the economic level between the two states as they signed an Early Harvest Scheme in 2003 that ultimately culminated into an FTA. The rise of China in the region has altered the security dynamics of the region. The Chinese assertions in the South China Sea and its hegemonic ambitions have become a cause of concern. What is also important is that none of the states wishes to live in a Chinese dominated system as both prefer more freedom and autonomy. For Thailand, China has been a security threat since the World War–II and during the Cold War. In the post-Cold War times, Thailand and China concluded an agreement for strategic cooperation in 2007. The support of China to Thailand in the aftermath of the financial crisis had caused a shift toward strategic cooperation. Since 2007, Thailand has come to recognise the importance of China for the Thai economy. However, the recent Chinese assertion in South China Sea has opened up a new space of co-operation for India and Thailand. Both sides have now explored defence as a hedge against regional uncertainties. In 2012, India and Thailand concluded an MoU on defence co-operation. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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The bigger question that arises is whether India can successfully emerge as a security provider to East Asia against the rising uncertainties. India has not used its LEP to bolster security and defence relations as it has preferred a lesser engagement in the security realm. As China and its assertiveness increases in the area, the SEA and EA states expect India to be able to provide security through strategic engagements with the players in the region. The Japanese and Koreans too see India as a net security provider in the region. It is in this context that Indian began to assert its role as a net security provider since 2012 by beginning to use the Indian Ocean as a region to demonstrate its capabilities. As India believes East Asia is also a part of its extended neighbourhood, it has begun using a mixture of soft and hard power along with sustained political, security and economic interaction within the region under its Act East Policy. Under the AEP, India intends to use the existing institutional architecture to deepen ties with the region. The recent AEP signifies India’s strategic interest in injecting the strategic dimension into the relationship. India has already enhanced strategic control of its relation with Vietnam, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. Thailand has emerged as the next destination, along with Indonesia, where relations can be taken to a strategic level. India has emerged as a security partner of the region and the AEP will give India a further push to the process as it now possesses a vision and the leadership qualities necessary for network building.
Survey of Future of India-Taiwan Relations In 1949, India recognised the People’s Republic of China (PRC) but not the Republic of China (ROC) {For detailed analysis, refer to the chapter of India and China relationship}. It is not that India offered any position on the issue of Formossa. India believed that it was important to recognise the fact that the PRC had been established. Thus, Nehru recognised PRC and also that Formossa is Chinese territory. As neither PRC nor ROC favoured any international mediation, Nehru also designed Indian policy appropriately and maintained that the civil war of China would end soon and the will of the Chinese people would be abiding. India refrained from playing any conciliatory role in ROC–PRC issue.
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During the initial years, as Nehru maintained this policy, leaders of the Hindu Mahasabha, namely N B Khare, and Jan Sangh’s Madhok, felt that India had adopted a policy of double standards by not accepting a nationalist Taiwan while accepting a communist China. Post the 1962 Sino–Indian conflict, India and Taiwan began to witness a rise in military and media exchange which today manifests as rising parliamentary exchanges. But in the last 30 years, Taiwan–China relations have improved. A unique feature is that this improvement has not been driven by forces from top down but from bottom up. The Taiwanese businesses have invested heavily in China and as a result, the people-to-people ties have flourished. China has remained adamant on the One-China policy and has maintained that Taiwan is part of China as ROC does not exist anymore. India does engage with Taiwan, but, under a different nomenclature. In 1995, India established an India–Taipei Association in Taiwan while Taiwan established the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre (TECC) in India. The two sides don’t have diplomatic relations and thus lack an institutional architecture. Today, the bilateral trade stands to be $8 billion as of 2016. India has received FDI from Taiwan. Taiwan has, however, faced difficulties in bringing FDI to India as in the official documents of India, Taiwan is mentioned as Chinese Taipei and the existing Indian rules that apply to China also apply to Taiwan, with no exception applicable. The continental engineering corporation of Taiwan has been working with the Delhi metro. It has often complained about the repeated RBI clearance it had to get for bringing investments to India. Taiwan somehow receives less support from the Indian political elites and its foreign bureaucracy. It is important for India to rectify this imbalance and boost ties with Taiwan. In 2014, during the swearing in of Indian PM Modi, the representatives from the TECC were invited. Later in the year, as India initiated its AEP, the two states seem to have developed more potential to enhance ties. Taiwan can become a frontier state of India’s AEP. In 2015, the two sides celebrated their 20 anniversary of their relations. th
Taiwan has initiated a Go South Policy and under which it intends to establish representative offices in the states of SEA for economic engagement. The Go South Policy intends to use economic diplomacy to boost political relation. The new leadership of Taiwan under Tsai Ing-wen favours deeper economic ties with India. It is under the AEP, that India should try to create an institutional framework that will bolster cooperation with https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Taiwan. Under its AEP, India can do great fine balancing of enhancing ties in education, science and economy without upsetting China.
In June, 2016, an Indian delegation landed in Taiwan and concluded an MoU on Air Services Agreement and agricultural cooperation. An India–Taiwan Parliamentary Forum was established to enhance political cooperation. In February, 2017, a Parliamentary delegation from Taiwan, comprising of three women members of Parliament led by Kuan Bi Lang, visited India. The delegation supported Make in India and cooperation for smart cities. Taiwan pledged support to boost tourism and people to people ties with India. There were protest from China in 2017 over the visit by Taiwan’s delegation but India dismissed the Chinese protests by asserting that the visits had nothing unusual and had no political meanings attached as such informal interactions are a part Indo-Taiwan engagement.
Survey of Sixty years of India–Malaysia Diplomatic Relationship, 2017 India and Malaysia have historic and civilizational ties. The two sides established diplomatic relations in 1957. In 1993, the two sides concluded an MoU on defence cooperation. Apart from the regular meetings of the defence secretaries of the two countries, the two sides have conducted regular air level and naval exercises. In 2010, the two sides concluded a comprehensive economic cooperation agreement (CECA). As Malaysia is a member of the ASEAN, the two sides also benefit commercially due to the India–ASEAN FTA. The FDI from Malaysia to India is directed primarily in telecom, oil and gas and power plants. In April, 2017, the Malaysian PM Dato Seri Mohmad Najib Bin Tun Abdula Razak visited India. He addressed a conference of Indo–Malaysia CEO forum. The two sides decided to deepen cooperation in infrastructure, textiles, pharmacy, IT, healthcare, and help in manpower development, data mining, traditional medicine, education, MSME, civil aviation and tourism. To further enhance the India–Malaysia strategic partnership, the two sides have decided to augment cooperation in multilateral affairs and economic issues.
Survey of India and Singapore Relations The India-Singapore relations began during the Chola period. Cholas named the island https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Singapore and established a settlement there. In the modern times, the East India Company used to carry cargo via Singapore to India and it was an important transit route for the British. Singapore was later colonized by the British and governed from Calcutta. Singapore became independent from the British in 1965. In the same year, India concluded a diplomatic treaty with Singapore. India Singapore relations paced up since the end of the Cold War and in 2005 the two sides concluded a C.E.C.A. In 2015, India and Singapore celebrated 50 years of diplomatic relations. In the same year, Indian Prime Minister also attended the funeral of Lee Kuan Yew. The foundation of the economic relationship between the two is the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) signed in 1994 (with protocols signed in 2011). India exports light oils, nickel and diamonds while it imports styrene, digital processing units and toluene. Singapore is the second largest FDI provider to India. In 2003, the two sides concluded India-Singapore Defense Cooperation Agreement and established a Joint Working Group on intelligence cooperation. Today, the two sides cooperate in defense at the level of maritime security and defense technologies. There have been frequent bilateral army and naval exercises under MILAN and SIMBEX formats. At the economic level, to enhance commercial diplomacy with India, Singapore follows a three-point strategy. Firstly, it encourages private investment to India. Secondly, it collaborates with countries like Japan and South Korea to invest in India and thirdly, India and Singapore jointly explore possibilities of investing together in other countries (mainly Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia). Singapore has complained about bureaucratic hurdles, procedural hassles and lack of transparency as some of the hurdles in commercial diplomacy. In the recent times, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, India has decided to attract global investment to make India a manufacturing hub of the world. Just like China has used Hong Kong as a collaborator to access international investment community, India has decided to use Singapore in the same way to access global finances. India is taking steps to integrate to the global economy by integrating the India Rupee through Singapore to make it an international currency. The RBI has allowed Indian firms to raise Rupee bonds abroad. Such bonds are raised in the local currency and can be settled in US Dollars. Singapore can play an important role to allow India to internationalize the Rupee. This will strengthen the bilateral India-Singapore commercial diplomacy.
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2 CHAPTER
India and Australia Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Analysis of historical diplomatic relations Commercial and strategic diplomacy Nuclear and education diplomacy Analysis of bilateral visits
INTRODUCTION Australia is an erstwhile British colony like India and their relation started unfolding during the colonial period. During the British era, Indian labour was used in the plantations and cane fields in Queensland. The Europe–Australia trade brought India and Australia closer to each other. Since Indian independence, Australia and India have witnessed three distinct phases of relationship. The initial Nehruvian period saw ideological differences separating India and Australia. The period from 1970s till the end of the Cold War saw undulation. Finally, since the end of the Cold War, there has been strategic convergence between the two. Let us examine each phase in detail.
PHASE 1: 1947 TO 1970 India, after its independence in 1947, established a mission in Australia. India had already had its mission opened in 1944, and took this opportunity to convert it to an Indian High Commission in 1947. Afterwards, India adopted non-alignment policy at foreign policy level while Australia remained inclined towards the USA and established its alliance with America very firmly.
Case Study Cold War alliance of Australia and the US The relationship of Australia and US goes back to 1900–1901 when both cooperated for the first time to suppress the Boxer Rebellion in China. The US and Australia fought the World War–II together. In 1951, the ANZUS alliance was formed between Australia, New Zealand, and USA as a treaty for Pacific security. In 1954, when the SEATO was created, ANZUS was brought within its ambit but the ANZUS per se continued to be the bedrock of the US–Australia relation. Even today, Australia continues to be the top non-NATO troop contributor for NATO operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The role of Australia for the US foreign policy has increased in the recent times owing to the Pivot to Asia initiative and Trans Pacific partnerships. As the case notes, Australia became an ally of the US while India advocated for https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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NAM. The two nations, therefore, ideologically drifted apart. Moreover, the relations could not flourish as neither of the countries ever featured in each other’s strategic calculus. In the initial phases, India decided to be a part of the British Commonwealth without allegiance to the British crown. Australia initially adopted a white only policy while India did not opt for any anti-Asian Policy. Australia supported the US in its Vietnam War and even allowed its territory to be used by the US for docking nuclear ships in Australia. Australia also provided aid to India under the Colombo Plan and supported India in its war against China in 1962. However, the ideological difference and their different approaches to the British Commonwealth prevented the relations to be taken to an advanced level.
PHASE 2: 1970 TO END OF COLD WAR During this phase, we see domestic political change in Australia (Robert Menzeies was replaced by Gough Whitlam as Prime Minister) which also brought change in Australian international relations. Gough Whitlam intervened successfully to end Australian participation in Vietnam War. He went on to diplomatically recognise China, North Korea and East Germany. In 1971, India and Australia envisaged cultural cooperation. The relationship went on an upswing but it was short-lived. After the Indo–Pak war of 1971 and the subsequent conclusion of the India–Russia Treaty of Friendship, the relationship began to slowdown. The dip in the Indo–Australia relations came in 1975 when Malcolm Fraser, Australian PM criticised India’s proximity to the USSR. He also took a dig at India’s condemnation of the US base in Diego Garcia and refusal of India to condemn Soviet presence in the Indian Ocean region.
PHASE 3: STRATEGIC CONVERGENCE As the Cold War ended, a growing cooperative spirit began to emerge between the two nations. Both nations began to recognise shared ideals of democracy and peace. The ending of the Cold War also made India improve its relations with the US and its immediate neighbours. Both countries identified economic cooperation as an area for strengthening bilateral relations. An Australia–India council to promote long term interests in India was established and in 1992, a joint working group on coal was formed. In 1994, a report called ‘India’s economy at the Midnight Hour’ was prepared. The report examined trade and investment opportunities in India and identified areas of future investment for Australia. This report acted as a strategy document for Australian businesses. In 1995, the Australian Trade Minister Bob McMullan visited India and developed government-togovernment ties for the institutionalisation of trade. Australia has a unique way of undertaking research to fill the gap in awareness of a target market for future. Thus, the East Asia Analytical Unit in Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade prepared the above https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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report to guide future action. It also outlined education as a core area and encouraged Australian education industry to tap India on priority as a market for higher education. The previous phase of undulation gave way for effective convergence of strategic relations after 9/11. The 9/11 again brought the US, Australia and India closer to contain terrorism. However, the relationship after the Cold War was not that smooth and some speed breakers did slow the pace of the unfolding relationship. In 1990, Australia sold Mirage aircrafts to Pakistan at complete displeasure of India. Initially, Australia also showed reluctance to support India at the APEC and UNSC. The 1998 nuclear tests by India saw a deeply negative reaction by Australia. Australia after India’s nuclear test withdrew its High Commissioner from India and also halted all ongoing defence and security cooperation as well as trade. The relations saw normalisation only after the Indo– US nuclear deal post 2005. The period post 2005 saw the deepening of the relationship yet again.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY As the diplomatic ties between India and Australia began to normalise, trade as a dimension picked up. India exports to Australia pearls, medical instruments and IT services and imports gold, coal, copper and vegetables.
Australia invests in India through FDI while Indian firms also have presence in Australia. Indian firms in Australia include Sterlite, Reliance, Asian Paints, Adani, NMDC, Tata, ICICI, TCS and JFlex, to name a few. Australian FDI comes to India in services, metallurgical industry, telecom, automobile and consultancy. In Melbourne, Satyam Mahindra has established largest ever product development centre. In 2014, Australia had expressed interest to export resources from Abbot Point Port in Queensland by constructing a rail line to link the port with coal mines. Moreover, Tata Blue Scope Steel has established a Joint Venture for steel use for construction industry.
Case Study Adani Group and Carmichael Coal Mine Carmichael coal mine is located in Queensland. The Government of Queensland, in August 2014, approved a mining lease for Adani. While approving the project, the Government of Queensland took environmental concerns into consideration. The main driving factor was job creation and flow of investment. The Government of Queensland granted three mining leases for an area containing 11 billion tons coal over 160 km area in North West of Clermont. It is a railroad project to establish mining activity, workshops, power lines, pipes to transport 100 tonnes of coal per https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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year. Once the company starts mining, it will send clean coal to India. However, the clearance has sparked concerns amongst green groups in Australia. The environmental lobby is asserting that the project will damage the great barrier reefs. They also site environmental damage due to dredging and climate change as serious concerns. As of now, the project has become operational. In 2006, the Australia–India Research Fund was founded with an aim to promote bilateral research in sectors to enhance science based collaboration. In 2014, Tony Abbott donated 20 million dollars for four years to Australia–India strategic Research Fund which had identified five support areas.
Since 2008, both have been undertaking a joint study for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and have discussed impact of tariff reduction and increased trade in services. The FTA has focused on IT, Telecom, finance and Tourism. In May 2011, the negotiations for CECA began and are still going on.
STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY Australia in 2012 has announced a white paper on defence. The title of the paper is ‘Australia in the Asian century’. Australia says that the centre of gravity has shifted to the Indo–Pacific as the new theatre of commerce and power. Hence, Australia intends to explore opportunities in Asia. The US attempting to rebalance Asia has brought strategic importance of Indian Ocean region to the fore. In this context, Australia has advanced an idea to cooperate with India in the economic area and maritime security and has recognised the importance of a forum like Indian Ocean Rim Association. It has announced in its 2014–15 budgets its commitment to grow its defence spending to 2% of GDP over the decade to curtail new threats in the maritime sphere. In 2009 India and Australia announced their strategic partnership agreement (SPA) when the then Australian PM, Kevin Rudd, visited India. One important reason is an increased assertion by China in the South China Sea. Both India and Australia felt the need to cooperate at multiple strategic levels to ensure protection of sea lanes of communication.
Case Study India-Australia: Partners in Regional Security and Prosperity and AUSINDEX-2017 The Indo-Pacific region is witnessing strategic changes and India and Australia have deep convergences in meeting these emerging challenges. In June 2017, India and https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Australia carried out the second edition of joint naval exercise called AUSINDEX in the West coast of Australia. From India, INS Jyoti, INS Shivalik and INS Kamorta visited the port of Freemantle. The first edition of this exercise happened in 2015 in Vishakapatanam. In the second edition, in 2017, the two focused on enhancing interoperability at the naval level. This helped both sides lay down a foundation for a professional culture of future war fighting. Australia and India want to ensure that the dynamic Indo-Pacific region remains a region of prosperity and both sides are able to uphold a rules based order which is challenged by unilateral action of some states (indirect reference to China and its assertion in the region). Both Australia and India are democracies where the leaders are accountable to the people. When democratic principles are translated and applied to foreign policy and international engagement, it gives rise to a rule based international system based on cooperation, transparency, predictability, peace and security. The two sides intend to deepen their security cooperation through the bilateral India-Australia Framework for Security Cooperation (signed in 2014). A need was felt to establish and conclude an alternative security architecture aimed to balance China’s hegemonic oceanic ambitions. Both sides understand that an architecture should be bilateral or regional with no power outside the region but should include US as a net security provider. As China, in recent times, has become excessively assertive, the SPA can have a balancing influence and promote stability.
Thus, the cooperation at strategic level between India and Australia can stabilise the region and both have a shared concern for China in the strategic sphere. But the more Australia undertakes commerce with China and continues to remain a US ally, the more will be the Australian dilemma in choosing a long-term relationship with India.
Case Study Why is India Reluctant to add Australia in the Malabar Naval Exercises? Though India has preferred bilateral engagement with Australia, it has rejected Australia’s entry into the Malabar exercises (Malabar is a trilateral naval exercise conducted between India, Japan and USA since 1992, but, Japan became a permanent https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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member in 2015 only. The 2017 version of the Malabar exercise is explained in the chapter of India and Japan relationship). The reason is that Australia initially pulled out of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (established in 2007 by Shinzo Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan as an informal security dialogue platform between India, Japan, USA and Australia) as it perceived that engaging in such a dialogue could upset Australia-China relations. Australia and China have a deep strategic and economic relationship (with the bilateral trade approximately 60 Billion Dollars between the two). Australia and China also signed a Free Trade Agreement in 2014. India remains concerned about strategic clarity form the Australian side vis-à-vis China. India feels that if Australia tilts more towards China at the strategic level, then by deepening its bilateral engagement with USA and Japan in Malabar, India will be able to counter balance the influence of China. Addition of Australia in the trilateral Malabar, India feels, will not give it any tactical gain on the ground. In the near future, Australia may enter Malabar, but, as of now, India-Australia prefer bilateralism to gain strategic value.
NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY The India–Australia nuclear issue has always revolved around the NPT. Australia has a lot of Uranium which India needs. However, Australia had been reluctant to supply for a long time on the basis that it was a signatory of NPT while India was not. Australia has always insisted that its nuclear supply would be conducted and in accordance to the NPT and supplies would only be granted to NPT signatories having proper safeguard agreements in place as per the IAEA. As India is a non-signatory to the NPT despite having acknowledged good non-proliferation credentials. If India and Australia had any nuclear commerce, then it would mean that Australia had tried to reward non-compliance to global regimes. However, post the 2005 nuclear deal between India and the USA and Australian support to India at NSG, it has initiated a rethink. In 2011, a joint group announced a policy shift for Uranium exports to India for civilian use. Australia has made it clear that strict safeguards need to be negotiated upon. The change is attributed to economic gain and fear of being isolated as the US, France, Canada have already concluded nuclear deals with India. In addition, Australia has given Uranium to China, which does not have a good non-proliferation record. The diplomatic angle played a very important role.
In September 2014, Tony Abbott visited India and concluded a nuclear deal. The basis of this 2014 nuclear deal was 2005 Indo–US nuclear deal. Australia finally concluded the deal based on Indian commitments in 2005.
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EDUCATION DIPLOMACY Australia has come out with a white paper plan in education that places Hindi as one of the four priority languages along with Chinese, Japanese and Indonesian. Australia aims to equip their children with Asian languages. Australia is promoting higher education and skill development for foreign students. If we compare Australia vis-à-vis Europe in poststudy work permit, part time work permit and permanent residency permits, Australia stands positive on all three areas over and above Europe. However, with relation to Indian students, Australia saw some racial attacks in 2010–2012 where Indian students were targeted on Australian territory. Australia subsequently amended its domestic laws to make punishments very stringent for racial attacks. This created the needed impact. Australia has also undertaken a severe crackdown on fake and non-recognised universities in Victoria and other cities making education highly controlled through stringent norms. In 2014, during the visit of Tony Abbott to India, he unveiled the New Colombo Plan for education. Under the plan, 1800 students from Australia will pursue internship and short programmes in India. Australia shall be training Indians in vocational skills to make them job ready in India.
ANALYSIS OF PM’S VISIT TO AUSTRALIA—2014 In September, 2014, Tony Abbott visited India. Australian cultural diplomacy bolstered India’s faith the moment he returned idols of Chola dynasty including a Natraja idol and the sculpture of Ardhanariswara. Abbott also gifted a shawl made of Australian wool to the mother of the Prime Minister. During the visit, he concluded an MoU on cooperation in civilian nuclear energy. Australia is now likely to become a long-term Uranium supplier to India. Important steps were taken to boost economic cooperation and enhance defence diplomacy.
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At the economic level, Abbott decided to develop a strong strategic partnership in energy security. Energy was crucial item of bilateral talks in 2014. Australia is an energy resource rich country. India also expressed interest in LNG, Uranium, coal and gold. At the education level, the Australian PM announced the Colombo Plan in Mumbai University in 2014, under which, a boost to academic exchanges and youth cooperation would be envisaged as Australia youth would be studying in Indian institutions. Australia has further decided to expand cooperation on the level of higher education. International cooperation is envisaged in G–20, East Asian Summit, APEC and IORA. The last Indian PM to visit Australia had been in 1986 when Rajiv Gandhi visited Australia. Narendra Modi visited Australia after a gap of 28 years in November, 2014, thereby finally bringing Australia within the periphery of Indian foreign policy vision. He addressed a gathering of Indian diaspora at Sydney’s Allphones Arena and urged the diaspora to invest in India. The visit of the PM saw MoUs negotiated. A framework for security cooperation was concluded for defence and maritime security. The framework envisages cooperation in R&D and regular bilateral exercises.
VISIT OF MALCOLM TURNBULL TO INDIA—2017 Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull visited India in April, 2017. The two sides decided to strengthen their bilateral cooperation in the Indo–Pacific. India wishes to use Australia’s expertise and finances to support economic programmes in India. India appreciated that the new Columbo Plan of Australia has made Indian students choose Australia as a destination for education. Due to the rising education-based relations, a flourishing knowledge partnership is emerging between Australia and India. The two sides have https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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decided to strengthen naval cooperation in the Indo–Pacific and work jointly for ensuring a legal maritime order and freedom navigation. In 2014, the two sides had concluded a bilateral framework for security cooperation. The leaders of both states decided in 2017 to broaden the defence partnership by enhancing maritime security. India and Australia will organise an army exercise in 2018. To enhance strategic cooperation, the two have decided to work together on ‘2+2’ format of dialogue where defense and foreign ministers of both states will interact. The two sides will enhance cooperation on counter-terrorism under a joint working group on counter-terrorism. As the Australian parliament has passed the Civilian Nuclear Transfers to India Act, India will receive the first batch of Uranium from Australia by 2019. India has accepted Australian invitation to enhance sports partnership by participating in 2018 Commonwealth Games in Gold Coast, Australia. The two sides are hopeful of concluding a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement at the earliest. India and Australia have decided to take steps to deepen their cooperation at the trade level. During the visit of Turnbull to India, the two sides have established India Economic Strategy for Australia. The strategy will be the key tool used by Australia to enhance commercial diplomatic ties with India. In September 2017, the two sides held Australia Business Week in India (ABWI) and more than 170 Australian businessmen participated in the meeting which happened in six different Indian cities. The Australian businessmen explored business opportunities ranging from health to mining to infrastructure in India. Many Australian business houses are keen to support urban redesigning and smart city creation in India.
Case Study Contrarian Play Since the election of Donald Trump as the President of the USA, a new era of economic nationalism has emerged. Many countries have restored to protectionism and erected walls to restrict entry of outsiders. In the chapter of India–USA relationship, we have already analysed how H1-B category visa issues has impacted the Indian IT sector. Australia has abolished the 457 visa programme. Under the 457 visa programme, the Australian businesses could employ skilled foreign workers for up to four years to meet the shortage of skilled workers in Australia. Under the 457 visa programme, the employers were free to employ any number of foreigners as there was no cap in the programme. The Turnbull administration has replaced the 457 Visa programme with a Temporary Skill Shortage (TSS) visa which would allow Australian firms access to foreign workers in a limited way. As walls turn around us everywhere, India should not fall for the hype of herds but turn the walls into an opportunity. As the future would be such where Indian workers may find it tough to work aboard, India should build up an ecosystem to incentivise foreign firms to relocate to India.
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3 CHAPTER
India and Vietnam Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical background of diplomatic ties Strategic and Commercial diplomacy Oil, South China Sea issue and India-Vietnam policy Defence diplomacy Analysis of bilateral visits
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND The relations between India and Vietnam go back to the second century BC when Indian traders used to sail from India to the Indo–China region. The trade also led to a spread of Indian culture and ideas to Vietnam. The biggest manifestation of Indian culture is visible in Central and South Vietnam where the Champa Temples stand as testimony to cultural diffusion. The two countries also have commonality at the level of a National Liberation movement for independence. During World War–II, both India and Vietnam were able to establish a solid foundation on a common anticolonial plank and non-alignment. During the Cold War, Vietnam adopted communism. As the US–Vietnam war broke out, India showed support and solidarity with Vietnam and condemned US presence in Vietnam. Slogans like, “Amar nam, Tomar Nam Vietnam, Vietnam,” were a testimony to Indian solidarity during US–Vietnam war. In June, 1966, India advocated an end of bombing by the US in Vietnamese territory and favoured conflict resolution through the Geneva Accords. The US–Vietnam War finally ended in 1972 with the conclusion of the Paris Accords. India expressed happiness and satisfaction on the conclusion of US–Vietnam conflict by making positive statements on the floor of the house of the Indian Parliament. In 1972, India and Vietnam established ambassador-level relations and opened up diplomatic ties. Post-unification of Vietnam in 1975, India even supported the Vietnamese Cambodian invasion. It also supported the Vietnamese in their War with China in 1979. Both nations signed a bilateral trade agreement in 1978 and the Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (BIPPA) on March 8, 1997. During the Cold War period, India and Vietnam remained committed to each other bound by a common ideology of non-alignment. However, they also had their adverse attitude towards the US as another commonality during the Cold War. As the Cold War ended, India initiated a new policy paradigm at the economic and foreign policy level. India also made an internal economic transition of open economy. At the foreign policy level, in 1991, India initiated the Look East Policy (LEP). Under the Look East Policy, India decided to integrate itself with South East Asian states. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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LEP = South East Asia + Economy Vietnam was not only an important South East Asian economy but also became a member of the ASEAN. As under the Look East Policy, India began to initiate a dialogue with the ASEAN, and began to use it as a platform to economically engage with Vietnam. In the Ministry of External Affairs of India, a separate division was created for CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam), which provided the needed impetus to propel Indo–Vietnam relations. As India and Vietnam began to explore the commercial dimension in their bilateral diplomacy, a new feature that came up into the Vietnamese foreign policy was its gradual rapprochement with the US. Due to an increasingly powerful Chinese presence, the US have realised the strategic significance of Vietnam in keeping an eye on China. As the US initiated the rebalancing of Asia–Pacific through its Pivot to Asia Policy, Vietnam found its presence in the new strategic calculus. Vietnam is not only a part of the USA’s Pivot to Asia, but is also one of the twelve Trans-Pacific Partnership states. Since the end of Cold War, India–US ties have also improved and the two have even explored a strategic dimension in their bilateral diplomacy. In the context of India and Vietnam, the strategic dimension signifies a strong defence partnership. If India and Vietnam are developing proximity at the strategic level today, then apart from India’s Act East Policy, a common factor has been the US need to contain China. Thus, India and Vietnam relations have transformed over a period of time from being ideological in nature to economic-cum-strategic in nature today. The diagram below captures the shift in Indo–Vietnam diplomatic ties. India’s Act East Policy and Vietnamese Look West Policy seem to be converging at the right point to reshape the Asian Balance of Power.
STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY Whenever two states intend to explore their relationship in a particular dimension, there are multiple diplomatic mechanisms available. For example, the two states can conclude a memorandum of understanding (MoU) or Memorandum of Agreement (MoA). The MoU or MoA are both instruments used to express interest to explore diplomacy in any dimension. The MoUs and MoAs are always sector specific. Another diplomatic mechanism is establishment of a Joint Study Group (JSG)/Joint Working Group (JWG) or a Joint Expert Group (JEG). Whenever a JSG/JWG/JEG is established, a particular diplomatic dimension is picked up to undertake consultations. A JSG/JWG/JEG have multiple actors which are involved in a broad consultative mechanism on the diplomatic dimension selected. Another tool could be a treaty, a convention or a protocol. Normally the ties move in the direction as depicted below.
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However, practically, in diplomacy, it is found that countries don’t usually follow the three steps chronologically and often jump from one step to the other directly. India and Vietnam signed an MoU on Defence Cooperation in 1995. This MoU led to the conclusion of India–Vietnam Defence Protocol in the year 2000. There are multiple dimensions in the strategic diplomacy between India and Vietnam. India and Vietnam, as per the Defence Protocol, have regular annual interactions at the level of the Chief of Army Staff. Russia has provided MiG-21 aircrafts to both Vietnam and India. India has agreed to provide Vietnam maintenance, repair and overhaul facilities for their MiG-21 aircrafts in India. At the ASEAN Defence Minister’s Meeting Forum, India and Vietnamese Defence Ministers have undertaken regular interactions. India also participates with Vietnam in the 17 Nation MILAN exercises. At the level of capacity building, India is also providing 50 ITEC scholarships to Vietnam.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY During the Cold War as India and Vietnam were both closed economics, which rendered the commercial angle in diplomacy pretty weak. The end of the Cold War ushered in a resurgent commercial dimension. India and Vietnam almost undertook economic liberalisation simultaneously. This opening up of the economy in Vietnam was called the Ðổi Mới. A unique shared feature between India and Vietnam is that both the countries in the post-Cold War era have adopted a socialist economy with a tilt towards capitalism. Vietnam cited lack of finance as a reason that hindered bilateral trade with India. As finance became a hindering factor, India decided to assist Vietnam. When a country needs to boost trade, it can use two instruments, that of a loan or a line of credit. Let us take a hypothetical example. Let’s say India decides to give Vietnam a loan of 100 Rupees. In case of a loan, the purpose once defined cannot be changed. Thus, loan at times becomes a rigid instrument. It cannot use the unused amount for any purpose other than the stated purpose. But when it comes to the interest repayment, Vietnam shall pay an interest to India on the entire 100 Rupees even if it hasn’t used or been able to use the entire amount. Thus, loan becomes a commerce-centric instrument. That is why another instrument used for promoting trade ties is the line of credit. Now, the nation receiving the LOC has the flexibility to use the money for whatever purpose they want. The nation extending the LOC can recommend to the recipient nation on the potential use of the money but the recipient nation has the freedom to use the money for any purpose. Let’s assume Vietnam used the 100 Rupees LOC to buy a machine for the same purpose as stated above. Let’s say, that the machine costs 80 Rupees. Now if 20 Rupees is the unutilised amount, Vietnam has the flexibility to use it for any purpose, which isn’t true in case of a loan. In a LOC, the interest is always paid on the amount utilised by the recipient state (that is on 80 Rupees). The LOC is a very flexible instrument because if the recipient nation feels that it cannot utilise the entire amount, it has the flexibility to give back the unutilised amount back without the interest. If Vietnam feels that it cannot use the remaining 20 Rupees at all, it can return 20 Rupees back to India without an interest on the same. Since India had the option of extending a loan or an LOC to Vietnam, India chose to grant Vietnam an https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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LOC. India since the end of the Cold War has given 20 lines of credit to Vietnam. It is due to these lines of credits that the bilateral Indo–Vietnam trade is approximately 8.3 billion dollars. India imports machines, phone components, computers, electronic hardware, rubber, chemicals and coffee while it exports meat, fish, corn, cotton and pharmacy products. India has 93 projects going on in Vietnam totalling about one billion dollars. In 1982, India also extended the ‘Most Favoured Nation’ status to Vietnam. Tata Power is investing 1.8 billion dollars in a 1320 mega war power project in Nha Trang Province. At the level of capacity building, India, in 2007, established a centre for English language training in Technical University in Nha Trang and a centre for Software development in Ho Chi Minh City. India has been taking FDI to Vietnam primarily in the oil, tea and sugar industries. As India and the ASEAN have a FTA, this forum is also utilised by both India and Vietnam to deepen their engagement at the commercial level.
OIL DIPLOMACY AND SOUTH CHINA SEA ISSUE India’s presence was first detected in 1978 when Petroleum minister K D Malviya had shown interest in oil from Vietnam. Vietnam privatised their oil and gas sector in 1988. Since then, India’s ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) has been undertaking oil cooperation with Vietnam. To facilitate deeper oil cooperation, India’s OVL has set up a joint venture with Petro Vietnam primarily for oil exploration. Vietnam has invited India into its exclusive economic zone and continental shelf for oil exploration. India is undertaking oil exploration in offshore blocks number 128, 152 and 153. Indian efforts for oil exploration in South China Sea has not been appreciated by China, which has objected to Indian endeavours in oil exploration in the disputed territory. India has countered Chinese claims by asserting that its presence in South China Sea is legal and it falls within the ambit of Vietnam’s EEZ. India has also asserted that its oil exploration in South China Sea is as per India’s maritime interest.
One of the key maritime interests of India as explained in the diagram above is to retain a favourable geostrategic position. India has maintained that its presence in the South China Sea is not to contain China but for its own economic interests, especially that of its energy security needs. As per United Nations Convention on the Laws of the High Seas (UNCLOS), countries in their EEZ can explore oil, mineral resources, living and non-living natural resources including resources under the sea, seabed and subsoil. Vietnam says that by inviting India to explore oil in its EEZ, it has not done anything illegal. In the South China Sea, the executive economic zone of China and others overlap. The Paracel Islands are claimed by China, Taiwan and Vietnam. The Spratly Islands are claimed by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei and Philippines. The Scarborough Shoal is claimed by Philippines, China and Taiwan. China, since 1953, has been claiming South China Sea through its mine-dash line. In https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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fact, in September 2015, Rear Admiral Yuan Yubai of the Chinese Navy stated that the South China Sea also belongs to China as the name itself has ‘China’ embedded in it. China has changed its tactics completely and has become extremely assertive in South China Sea. It has made a shift from its earlier strategy of invasions to creation of new facts by confounding, bullying and bribing its adversaries. In 2010, China said that Tibet, Xinjiang province and South China Sea are part of ‘Core National Interests’ of China. China has clarified that Core National Interest signifies that the issue will be significant enough for China to go to war. Despite the fact that China, in 2002, in the 8th ASEAN Summit, agreed upon a Declaration of Conduct to solve issues in South China Sea peacefully with no use of force, its strategy to distort facts continues. Since 2010, China has been converting uninhabited islets into artificial islets to bring it under UNCLOS (examples would include Haven Reef, Johnson South Reef and Fiery Cross Reef). China has been changing the size and structure of the reefs by modifying their physical land features. It has also established airstrips on Parcel and Spratly.
Thus, China’s increasing ability to decide and expand its role in the South China Sea has not only made the region strategically significant but has also compelled India to reevaluate its approach on the issue.
Thus, keeping in mind the strategic significance of the South China Sea, India firstly feels that the fact distortion strategy of China is similar to the fact distortion strategy it has adopted in Himalayas where it sends army officials disguised as grazers, villagers, and road engineers. In the South China Sea, China has been sending coast guard personal, fishermen and militias to make historic claims in the region. Thus, the changing ground realities visible due to Chinese assertion in South China Sea has made India announce its stand on the issues.
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India’s Act East Policy has made India more sensitive to the concerns of its ASEAN friends. After the recent verdict in 2016 where Philippines had taken the issue to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), India’s stand on the PCA verdict has rightly assumed the moral high ground and is a vindication of India’s maritime interests.
India’s stand to endorse Freedom of Navigation in South China Sea is a prerequisite for India to meet its rising military ambitions. India has also conveyed to China that if non-proliferation rules cannot be bent for India (for instance, in case of India’s membership to NSG) then UNCLOS cannot be bent for China.
Case Study From 11-Dash Line to the 9-Dash Line In 1947, when China took control of some islets in the South China Sea occupied by Japan in World War–II, they created a map with 11-dash line to show them as a part of China. In 1949, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) established presence there and the KMT regime fled to Taiwan. Since then the PRC became the legal legitimate representative of China and decided to control the entire maritime claims of the region. As the Republic of China government fled to Taiwan, the PRC government allowed the North Vietnam regime to establish a radar station and a transit point for goods in the South China Sea. This was done on the basis of spirit of comradeship and brotherhood with the communist North Vietnamese regime. In 1957, China ceded Bailongwei island to Hanoi. Thus, the two dashes were removed by China to bypass the Gulf of Tonkin as a gesture to North Vietnam.
DEFENCE DIPLOMACY https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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In recent times, defence diplomacy has gained significant acceptance in Vietnamese foreign policy discourse. Historically, Vietnam, due to its location, has always been of maritime significance. The western part of Vietnam is hilly, meaning that the people of Vietnam have to majorly look towards east for economic development. The east of Vietnam has access to the sea. Out of 64 provinces in Vietnam, 28 are coastal provinces. As the Vietnamese depend heavily on the sea for oil and resources, the countrymen are very susceptible to the dominance of the sea by foreign powers. Vietnam opened up its economy in 1991 and decided to go for economic modernisation through the establishment of a marine-based economy in 1997. Since 1997, maritime thinking has dominated Vietnam. In 2007, the Vietnamese government adopted Vietnamese maritime strategy 2020. Vietnam has a modest defence budget of 3.6 billion dollars but in 2007, it surprised the world by announcing a 1.8 billion dollar submarine contract (to purchase 6 kilo class submarines) with Russia. This landmark deal led the scholars of IR to analyse the reasons behind the Russia–Vietnam deal. One of the easiest conclusions that the scholars reached was that the deal is due to the fear of Chinese dominance in South China Sea. China, however, is not the only factor that prompted the deal.
As it is clear from Vietnamese maritime strategy that Vietnam wants to achieve a perfect blend of economic and defence development, as each component is deemed crucial to achieve growth in the other. The government of Vietnam adopted a white paper on defence in 2009 where it has identified certain hotspots in Asian Security.
This understanding of hotspots in Asian security in future has compelled Vietnam to undertake a shift.
Thus, Vietnam has clarified that its naval modernisation is linked to its domestic economic development. It does not favour any arms race and has no desire or ambition to develop its navy against any third country. It has, however, kept the option open to cooperate with Russia, Japan, the US, India and Australia to assist in its defence modernisation. It is in this context that India has opened up defence diplomacy with Vietnam. In December, 2016, India and Vietnam agreed on Cooperation in Defence and Cooperation in Peaceful use of Atomic Energy. The India–Vietnam Defence Cooperation https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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is likely to establish a new Asian Balance of Power. We have also witnessed rising India– Japan–Vietnam cooperation. Japan and Vietnam are cooperating at the levels of cyber security, space and naval modernisation. The security factor pushing the three to cooperate is China. Since 2011, India has faced around 400 incursions from China. There is rising Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean, be it through submarine exports to Pakistan and Bangladesh or sighting of Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean. China has also rejected the PCA’s 2016 verdict on the South China Sea. The rising Chinese assertiveness in South China Sea is based on Chinese military power. Since 2000, China has acquired 42 submarines while the US has acquired only 13. Though the US President Donald Trump has stated that the number of warships of the US are going to rise in future from 276 to 350, whether this increase will, in any way, help deter Chinese assertiveness is a matter of conjecture. In this situation, if Japan–India–Vietnam cooperate with each other, such cooperation is likely to have a viable potential for the order of Asian security. If China should further increase its assertiveness in South China Sea, Vietnam will get top priority due to its strategic location in the sea. Vietnam is also a strong-willed state as it has defeated France in 1954, the US in 1973 and China in 1979. Vietnam has built up an image of being a grave of big powers. Vietnam also has a capability for exhibiting proportional responses on any provocation. (For instance, Chinese ships in 2016 rammed into Vietnamese ships, and Vietnam immediately reciprocated by counter ramming Chinese ships). The future Asian security order is therefore likely to differ from old Asian security order.
The old system was based on the US centric alliances but over a period of time the bilateral alliances have not flourished. This means that, despite the US being a common ally to South Korea, Australia, Japan and Vietnam, it has not yielded much cooperation between these countries. One factor for the absence of such security cooperation is a lack of US resources to tackle problems in the region. Thus, with changing ground realities, new alliances have to be built up. These new alliances are emerging as mini-lateral security networks which may culminate as a futuristic collective security centric system.
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Thus, a new mini-lateral India–Vietnam alliance at defence level is on the rise in future.
VISIT OF NGUYễN TấN DũNG (VIETNAMESE PM) TO INDIA—2014 In 2014, the Vietnamese PM visited India with a business delegation of around 50 Vietnamese businessmen. He expressed interest to procure Brahmos missile from India. India has already given 18 lines of credit to Vietnam and in 2014, extended additional onetime line of credit of 100 million dollars to Vietnam. Both sides, during bilateral talks, decided to achieve a new trade target of 15 billion dollars in trade by 2020. India has decided to provide 200 additional ITEC scholarships. India will also train 500 Vietnamese sailors on how to use a submarine at INS Sathvanaha in Vishakapathnam. Tấn Dũng also visited Bodh Gaya as Buddhism is an important connecting factor between the two states. India reiterated that Vietnam is a key pillar of India’s Act East Policy.
VISIT OF THE INDIAN PM TO VIETNAM—2016 The Indian PM Narendra Modi visited Vietnam in 2016 and held talks with his counterpart Nguyễn Xuân Phúc. In 2007, both sides had signed strategic partnerships agreements. During the Indian PM’s visit, both sides elevated their strategic partnership to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership. In 2017, the two sides celebrated 45 years of diplomatic relations and the tenth year of their strategic partnership. Vietnam affirmed its support for India’s Act East Policy. To enhance bilateral cooperation, the leaders of the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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two sides decided to establish mechanisms to enhance cooperation at the level of political parties and legislative institutions on both sides. India announced five million dollars line of credit to setup an army software park at the telecommunications university in the Nha Trang Province. There were MoUs on cyber security and national security council, counter-terrorism, transitional crimes and disaster management. The two sides, to promote commercial diplomacy, have decided to establish business-to-business contents and work through the Vietnam–India Business Forum. The two sides have identified priority areas of cooperation.
To improve connectivity, both sides have decided to increase direct flight connectivity and even use direct shipping routes. India has committed support for Earth observatory Satellite Tracking System for environmental and science needs of both. The ISRO will establish a satellite tracking system and a data reception centre in Ho Chi Minh City at a price of 23 million dollars. The images are to be used by Vietnam for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance purposes. India will also assist Vietnam with quick impact project funds under the Mekong–Ganga cooperation. India has extended 509 million dollars line of credit for defence and 300 million dollars line of credit for textiles.
India and Vietnam have been strategic partners since 2007 and it has been one of the key agreements between India–Vietnam for cooperation in multiple dimensions of the relations.
Vietnam is the focal point of India’s Act East Policy and both sides have agreed to use the framework of the Act East Policy to further strengthen their relations. Larsen and Toubro will work with Vietnam Border Guards for offshore high-speed patrol boats. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Vietnam will use the 100 million dollars line of credit provided by India in 2014 for defence procurements.
To enhance the bilateral economic ties, achieving trade target of 15 billion dollars by 2020 has been declared as a strategic objective.
India’s ONGC Videsh Limited in partnership with Petro Vietnam will explore midstream and down-stream sectors in oil industry. To boost connectivity and promote tourism, India has urged Vietnam to use the shipping route and air route directly. In 1988, India and Vietnam had agreed to cooperate in Science and Technology. During the Indian PM’s visit, pursuant to the 1988 agreement, both sides have decided to explore cooperation in nuclear energy, outer space cooperation and ICT. India will continue to provide English language training and training to Vietnamese diplomats while also providing training under ITEC programme. To encourage the use and knowledge of traditional medicine, the two sides concluded an MoU on health cooperation whereby India has also decided to support Vietnam in the pharmaceutical sector. The members of the Buddhist Sangha of Vietnam have been given one-year scholarship for studying Sanskrit in India. Both sides again urged parties to resolve maritime disputes through international laws and respect international treaties.
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4 CHAPTER
India and South Korea Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical background of diplomatic relations Trade diplomacy Strategic diplomacy Nuclear diplomacy Analysis of bilateral visits
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND In 1929, in a poem, Tagore wrote,“In the golden age of Asia Korea was in of its lamp bearers, and that lamp is waiting to be lit once again for the illumination of the East.” These evocative lines by Tagore clearly reflects the vision of the Republic of India about the Republic of Korea (ROK). The connecting factor between India and ROK has always been Buddhism. Buddhism reached Korea in the fourth century AD. Buddhism was recognised in Korea in the reign of Kim Sosurim. Due to the spread of Buddhism in Korea, Indian and Korean interactions increased. The relations received an impetus in the times of Asoka, the Indian emperor who patronized Buddhism. Asoka is known to have sent iron and gold from India to Korea to establish Buddhist statues there. The interaction declined during the medieval times. With the advent of modern times came colonial rule. Japan colonised Korea and the British colonised India. The relations, hence, could not flourish due to colonial presences in both nations. As the national movement progressed in India against the British, a similar movement in 1920s began in Korea. It was in 1929 when Tagore reached Japan that he penned the lines above. In 1947, the UN Temporary Commission on Korea consisting of nine member states was established to hold elections in Korea in May 1948, with India as the Chairman of the Korean Commission.
India played an important role during the period from 1950 to 1953, with North and South Korea finally accepting the Indian-sponsored ceasefire on 21st July, 1953. India’s https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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diplomacy in 1954 Geneva conference that officially ended the Korean crises was highly appreciated. As the Cold War entered Asian theatre in the 1950s India, announced nonalignment while ROK chose an alliance with the US and in 1953 signed a Mutual Defence treaty with US under the leadership of Rhee Syngh Man. In 1974, India and ROK concluded an agreement on trade, promotion and economic cooperation but the treaty did bear fruit as the two countries differed ideologically during the Cold War. India liberalised its economy during the Rajiv Gandhi era, which finally paved the way for India to enhance engagement with ROK. It was also way back in 1988 that India and ROK signed a Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA). In 1993, P V Narasimha Rao became the first Indian PM to visit South Korea. In 1996, the South Korean President Kim Young Sam visited India and established a joint commission at the Foreign Ministries level to boost bilateral cooperation. During the 1997 Asian crisis, South Korea was affected but after its economy was stabilised in 1999, the then Prime Minister of South Korea, Kin Jong Pil, visited India. The visit was significant as it opened up space cooperation. It was in 1999 that India, through a Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) launch, also put Unibyol or the Korean satellite KITSAT- 3 in a geostationary orbit. In 2004, then-President Roh Moo Hyun visited again and announced long term cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity. The first ever Foreign Policy and Security dialogue envisaging long term cooperative partnership was held and matters related to defence and terrorism and so forth were discussed. To enhance economic cooperation, a joint study group (JSG) was established in 2006. The JSG began to explain the potential of a future Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and ROK. As the negotiations went on, the two diversified into trade, science and technology, IT and infrastructure. Gradually textiles, oil and gas also came up in energy negotiations and economic cooperation. ROK recognised that India has ready availability of cheap and skilled labour. The ROK began to envisage India as an emerging as a destination where the ROK can invest, manufacture and boost exports to the rest of the world. ROK identified, as per the Indian skill set, automobiles and ship building to work upon. In 2005, POSCO steel company concluded an MoU with the government of Odisha for establishing a 12 billion dollar steel plant. This was touted as the biggest ever FDI to India in its history. In 2005, India and the ROK also concluded an MoU on defence cooperation and logistics. In 2009, finally the two concluded the CEPA In order to increase cultural contact, both have often signed mechanisms to promote cultural cooperation. The India week in ROK and the Korea week in India are organised at the cultural level with unfailing regularity. In 1999, Kimhae city and Ayodhya were declared sister cities. In recent times, the US rebalancing of the Asia–Pacific have got India and Korea closer. Another area of security cooperation between India and the ROK is at the level of nuclear power. North Korea and its clandestine activities have ensured that and India and the ROK will have to intensify cooperation to maintain the balance of power in this context. Keeping this in mind, both India and the ROK have resorted to regular military interactions. South Korea is a pioneer in missiles and class destroyers, which is a new area of cooperation. The economic interaction is increasingly linked to strategic relations.
TRADE DIPLOMACY https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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During Cold War, India had a closed economy while South Korea had an open economy. When the Cold War ended, India liberalised its economy, which provided an impetus to trade diplomacy. However, it was in 1974 that the trade promotion agreement was signed.
The trade relations have picked up well only at the end of the Cold War. Since 2001, the ROK has been an importer of services while India has emerged as an exporter of services. However, due to a change in demand at the economic level, the merchandise trade in recent times has grown. India exports mineral fuels, stag and ash, cotton and waxes while it mostly imports electronics, nuclear reactors, boilers andiron. Another crucial connector in the flow of investment from Korea to India are the Korean firms like Samsung, LG and Hyundai that have diversified their business interests in India. As Korea prefers local investments over FDI domestically, there is less potential of India to take FDI to ROK but we do have increasing Korean FDI to India. Events post the 1997 crisis have made Korea more amenable to a more proactive FDI regime. In 1998, they established a Foreign Investment Promotion Act to provide rebates and attract investments. The US and Japan are major contributors of FDI in Korea. India has initiated acquisition of Korean firms to increase its presence in Korea. The Tata group has recently acquired estate in Kunsan while IT firms like APTECH and TCS have also increased their presence.
INDIA–SOUTH KOREA CEPA The CEPA was concluded in 2009 and came into effect in 2010.
As a result of the CEPA, bilateral trade has increased and India has become a top exporter of IT and ITES exports. On the other hand, India is taking advantage of the highquality steel and heavy machinery imported from Korea. The CEPA has classified 11,200 tariff lines of Korea and 5200 tariff lines of India which are put under six broad categories for tariff reduction and elimination. As textiles and agriculture are crucial and sensitive to both, they have been excluded. The CEPA has also led to India expanding in telecom and construction sectors, apart from IT. It also allows movement of professionals, especially at the IT and engineering levels. In 2014, the Ministerial Joint Commission has been represented to India–ROK joint trade and investment promotion commission. Taking advantage of CEPA, Honda has set up a plant in Chennai. LG, Visteon Automobiles and Hyundai have also increased their presence in India. Korean investment in India mostly lies in manufacturing just as Indian https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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investment in ROK is in services. Indian firms in ROK include Novelise, Tata, Mahindra and Creative plastics.
Case Study India and POSCO In 2005, POSCO decided to establish a steel plant in India. However, the project, since its inception, has gotten entangled in grassroots activism over land acquisition. In 2008, the Indian Supreme Court also gave a green signal to POSCO to acquire land including land in a forest area for steel plant construction. But the project was further entangled in hurdles with the environment ministry and national green tribunals. Due to the ongoing issues, in July 2015, POSCO has announced its decision to put the project on hold citing an internal decision of the management. The project may not be operational as of now but POSCO still continues to be in India. In July, 2016, India and the ROK decided to launch the Korea + platform to boost trade. In order to promote investment, the Korea + acts as a platform that hosts representatives from Korean industry and energy ministries. In July 2016, the former Korean PM UN Chan Chung, while launching the Korea + platform, emphasised on improving the understanding of culture to enhance economic cooperation between two nations:
STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY The origin of India–ROK strategic partnership (SP) owes itself to the visit of Roh Moo Hyun to India in 2004. India and the ROK signed a long-term cooperation partnership for peace and prosperity in 2004. In 2010, when South Korean President Lee Myung Bak visited India, the relations were transformed and upgraded to the level of strategic partnership. Over a period of time, both have realised the need to cooperate at the strategic level due to the changing balance of power in Asia thanks to a rising China. The commitment of both for a multipolar and a democratic Asia strengthened their need to cooperate at the strategic level.
The year 2005 saw India–ROK sign an MoU on defense logistics and supplies. This increased the bilateral defense visits. In 2010, both signed pacts on humanitarian assistance and mutual interest in the defense sector. There is a permanent diplomatic post https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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of a defense attaché in Indian Embassy in Seoul.
NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY In 2011, India and the ROK signed a nuclear deal. Korea is a market leader and is also building nuclear reactors for the UAE. South Korea has been working on fourth generation fast reactors and is making progress in that area. The ROK wants to build reactors for India but India plans to first undertake nuclear research jointly with the country. It would be important to note that India has adopted a wait-and-watch policy over nuclear commerce with the ROK since 2011 as India wants to witness the success of Korean reactors in the UAE (Korean reactors are already very successful in Jordan). Most of the Korean nuclear technology is indigenously manufactured and Korea has successfully used nuclear diplomacy in its foreign policy amongst global players.
ANALYSIS OF PM’S VISIT TO AND FROM KOREA In 2014, the South Korean President visited India and signed an agreement on the exchange of classified military information. This clearly reflects the growing strategic convergence between the two nations. Now, sensitive intelligence and defense information would come to be regularly shared. Since 2014, cyber security has emerged as an important dimension. Korea is a pioneer in ship building and naval combat technology and India has expressed interest to cooperate in this regard. The strategic partnership and defense cooperation are destined to lay down a deep future cooperation.
In 2015, the Indian PM visited South Korea and upgraded the relation to the level of a special strategic partnership.
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A unique factor of the special strategic partnership is that now the two nations shall undertake a 2+2 dialogue at the foreign and defense ministers’ level regularly. Hyundai has decided to work on warship manufacturing. The PM had also paid a visit to Hyundai Heavy industry shipyard, that is, the Ulsan shipyard. He also addressed the diaspora and interacted with the top CEO’s of Korean firms, inviting them to invest in the ‘Make in India’ programme. Both nations have agreed to review the DTAA signed in 1985.
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5 CHAPTER
India and North Korea Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical background Commercial diplomacy Analysis of bilateral visits
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND The relations between India and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) are not usual diplomatic relations, though, during the Cold War some commonalities did exist. The origin of the relations goes back to Korean crisis in the 1950s when the Northern part of Korea invaded the South. This invasion by North of South was condemned by the South as also by India. The DPRK joined NAM in 1976 and thereafter requested India to raise the Korean issue at the NAM summit and take up the issue of Korean reunification. India advocated that the Korean issue be resolved bilaterally between ROK and DPRK and that the upcoming NAM Summit of 1977 was not an appropriate forum for the matter. DPRK accepted India’s request and trusted upon advice rendered by India. At the UN Security Council, India supported action through UN Security Council resolution (UNSCR)–82 and 83. It is interesting to note India did not support UNSCR–84, which advocated military assistance to ROK against DPRK. India aptly invoked NAM and maintained that it would not ally with any military commitments but would prefer UN action. India had established diplomatic relations in 1962 with DPRK. During Cold War, though North Korea supported NAM, India still preferred nothing more than diplomacy to adopt a hands-off approach in the Korean peninsula due to the looming Cold War politics. In 1988, DPRK Prime Minister LI Gun Mo came to India for a good will visit.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY The trade relations go back to 1974 when India and DPRK concluded a trade treaty and awarded the status of the most favoured nation to each other. North Korea and India have been undertaking trade but it has declined in the recent times as North Korea has come under international sanctions for its nuclear programme. It is facing a severe financial crunch because of dwindling trade. India has been exporting cotton, fabrics, drugs, pharmaceuticals, petroleum and food items to DPRK and importing iron and steel. Another factor hindering trade is an absence of a well-defined trade route through sea as well as the reluctance of banks to guarantee payments and insurances. In recent times, India and DPRK have advanced barter trade with each other. In exchange of steel and manganese from DPRK, India ships shoes, clothes and utensils to DPRK. India also provides training to the students of DPRK in IT and financial management https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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through regular student exchange programmes. India has also extended lines of credit (LOC) to DPRK and extends assistance in terms of food items including rice, wheat and also gives blankets, and so on. After the death of Kim Jong–II in 2011, DPRK faced a severe crisis. The year also saw a famine. There was a tremendous food shortage. The then North Korean ambassador to India, Kim Kye Gwan requested India for food aid. Subsequently, India, under the aegis of the World Food Programme, provided food aid to DPRK.
ANALYSIS OF THE RI SU VISIT TO INDIA—2015 In April, 2015, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Su Yong visited India and met his Indian counterpart. India conveyed an intention to improve bilateral relations. There was a great symbolic change witnessed after Ri Su visit. Ri Su Yong visited to celebrate the North Korean Independence Day. India selected the Minister of State for Home Affairs, Kiren Rijiju, to address the bilateral event. The Indian choice of the minister was wellplanned as he belongs to Arunanchal Pradesh and his participation sent a strong message to China to foil its persistent claims on Arunanchal. The Indian minister addressed the bilateral event in which the North Korean flag was also displayed along with the Indian flag. This conveyed its intention to deepen trade and commerce. The gradual change of India’s North Korea policy reflects a political consensus building up in India’s new engagement. This is also reflected by the fact that India had sent a three-member panel of parliamentary delegation to DPRK in 2013. Since 2000, both nations have undertaken Foreign office consultations regularly. Thus DPRK and India will strengthen ties ahead.
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6 CHAPTER
India and Fiji Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Basic background Analysis of bilateral visits
BASIC BACKGROUND Fiji, like India, is an erstwhile British colony. India’s relations with Fiji go back to 1897 when the British started importing labour from India to work on the sugarcane fields of Fiji. In early 20th century, a lot of traders from India began to settle in Fiji. The indentured labour system was abolished in 1920. While India became independent in 1947, Fiji continued to be under British rule till 1970. When in 1970 it gained independence, India upgraded the post of commissioner in Fiji to a high commission and opened a proper Indian Mission. In 1971, the PM of Fiji, Ratu Mara, visited India, which was followed by a visit from Indira Gandhi to Fiji in 1981. Fiji, in 2004, established a High Commission in India. In 2005, the Fijian PM Laisenia Qarase visited India and signed agreements on health, tourism, IT and established a trade commission.
ANALYSIS OF PM’S VISIT—NOVEMBER 2014 In November 2014, the Indian PM Narendra Modi visited Fiji in an official tour after a gap of 33 years. The visit of the PM coincided with a newly elected democratic government in Fiji led by Frank Bainimarama after a long military rule. India, in recent years, has assisted the democratic transition in Fiji. It has been a part of a multilateral observer group for democratic restoration. Modi also addressed the Fijian parliament. He announced a 5 million dollar fund for village entrepreneurship and small business development. The PM asserted that Fiji is a hub for India’s engagement in the Pacific. India also approved Visa on Arrival for Fijians visiting India. India has decided to assist Fiji in disaster preparedness and disaster management.
Case Study Space Cooperation and Mangalyaan In 2013, the ISRO sent a team of scientists to Fiji for tracking Mangalyaan. As of now, the ISRO has had to be dependent upon the Australian and the US stations to monitor Indian satellites over the Pacific. India decided to work with Fiji in this regard from 2015. In August, 2015, India hosted the second Forum for Indian Pacific Cooperation (FIPC–2) in Jaipur. The 14 heads of states of the Pacific Islands came to India to attend the conference. In the meeting, India offered that space cooperation be https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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explored and subsequently decided to establish a data collection hub for the Mangalyaan in Fiji for which the ISRO sent a team of 18 scientists to be stationed there. The ISRO wants to establish Fiji as a hub for space technology and intends to establish a permanent tracking station in the country. If, in future, it succeeds in so doing, this would open up the arena of space cooperation and ensure strategic presence of India in the Pacific. In summation, the FIPC achieved the following:
The India–Fiji engagement by the Indian PM’s visit marks a major diplomatic outreach by India. India has gained space in Pacific Isles community. India now needs to have a proactive, aggressive diplomacy with respect to Fiji and foster development in Pacific Islands.
End of Part Questions 1. Australia and India can ensure that Indo-Pacific remains anchored to a resilient rules based order. Discuss. 2. Malabar exercises have a far reaching geopolitical impact on the Asia-Pacific regional order. Examine. 3. “India needs to take steps to avoid the ‘Thucydides trap’ by ensuring a favorable regional balance of power through cooperation, partnership and short term alliances if needed”. Examine the statement in the light of Indian engagement with states in South East and East Asia. 4. Malabar-2017 demonstrates a shared determination of India, Japan and USA to safeguard a free and open Indo-Pacific order. Examine. 5. For India to succeed in the negotiations of the RCEP, the key lies in driving domestic growth through productivity and innovation than merely emphasizing the rhetoric of low cost labor. Examine the major challenges faced by India in negotiating the RCEP. 6. India’s Act East Policy rightly seeks to realign Indian foreign policy along its https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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historical axis. Discuss. 7. Buddhist outreach is a key element of India’s Act East Policy. Discuss. 8. The deepening of India-Taiwan relations is a mutually beneficial for both countries. Discuss the possibilities in economic and strategic realm. 9. Cooperation with like minded countries gives India more space to emerge as a key regional interlocutor. Examine the statement with respect to India as a pivot in the Indo-Pacific. 10. A deeper relationship with Singapore can ensure that India can use Singapore as a financial hub to internationalize the Indian Rupee and attract foreign investment. Discuss the possibility of India using Singapore as a financial hub and compare it with the Chinese model of Hong Kong. 11. Can India go beyond the diplomatic rhetoric and help Chinese neighbors enhance capabilities to stand up to Beijing? Examine the statement with respect to defense partnerships India is envisaging under the Act East Policy with respect to Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore. 12. Is it wise for India to play the Taiwan and Xinjiang card and make China adhere to ‘One India’ policy? Examine the strategic implications. 13. India’s financial aid to Philippines to fight the Islamic State (ISIL) signals a reworking of India’s ASEAN outreach and attempts to burnish India’s image as a Net Security Provider in the ASEAN region. Examine.
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PART-D
1 CHAPTER
India and Europe Policy—Key Drivers of the Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical background and areas of cooperation. India’s Outreach to Europe Programme and India–Europe FTA issue.
BASIC BACKGROUND The relations between India and European Union (EU) have been historically cordial, with diplomatic relations going back to 1962. The relationship has evolved only in the period after the Cold War ended. In 1996, the EU and India signed an Enhanced Partnership Agreement, leading to the first summit in 2000 in Lisbon. India is one of the few select countries in the world with which EU has regular summit level meetings. The 2004 summit in Hague was important because it was there that India and the EU decided to elevate the relations to the level of Strategic Partnership, and in 2005 agreed to a Joint Action Plan (JAP). The JAP has laid down the foundation of India–EU Strategic Partnership Agreement. India and the EU have evolved a common platform of interaction, which is, however, not stable when it comes to global forums. For example, both India and the EU have adopted different parameters based on their respective national interests while interacting at the level of climate change, WTO, and so on. Despite these differences, the relationship, otherwise, stands in good stead. This is also because at the bilateral level with France, Germany and the UK, India has strategic partnerships which have added depth to the overall relations with the region.
AREAS OF COOPERATION The areas of cooperation Indian and the EU have been outlined in the strategic Partnership Agreement and the Joint Action Plan. From the Indian side, there has been an aggressive push for cooperation with EU in areas of technology. The diagram below outlines the broad contours.
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India-Europe Free Trade Agreement Issue The most major area of cooperation remain economic. India mostly exports textiles and imports machinery. Since the time India has adopted an open economy, the relations at the economic level have strengthened. There has been significant Indian FDI to Europe as well. However, the European economic crises in the recent times have led to a slowdown between the two at the level of trade. Since 2007, India and the EU have been negotiating a Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) or the FTA. However, the BTIA/FTA negotiations have not yet delivered the results as of now. Even up till 2017-18, the BTIA has been stuck on a number of issues and no final agreement has been reached. The tables below give us a better picture of issues confronting the BTIA. What is India’s position? Reluctant on tariff Reduced tariffs in automobiles, reduction specially in wines and spirits automobiles Higher market access in banking, Reluctant to grant market access in retail, telecommunications and banking and retail accounting services Totally opposed to Modifications in IPR in Pharmacy grant only concession
Serial What does EU want in BTIA/ Number FTA (1)
(2) (3)
Present status (2017-18) Automobiles sector is under negotiation. Banking and retail are being negotiated. Deadlock prevails
Serial What does India want from EU in What is EU’s position? Number BTIA/ FTA? (1)
(2)
Reluctant to all the three to Market Access for fruits, vegetables protect the domestic and fish business Freedom of movement of skilled Reluctance on opening up professionals in European service to skilled Indian immigration sector
Present status (2017-18) Under negotiation Under negotiation
Another core area of cooperation is Science and Technology (S&T). The origin goes https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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back to 1958, when Germany assisted India with the development of IIT Madras. India is also a participant in International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project (to be discussed in the subsequent chapters). Under the Joint Action Plan, a Centre for European Studies has also been opened in India. India has also opened Institutions for contemporary Indian Studies in Europe. The level of academic collaboration is also high due to the EU support to India under an initiative for the development and integration of Indian and European research since 2009. The most robust science-based partnership India has is with Germany. A lot of German institutions have academic cooperation with Indian institutions, with Germany also offering vocational training to Indians. and India and the EU also have a development partnership where many of the EU nations have been providing aid to India to assist in developmental initiatives. Germany, for instance, has been giving developmental aid to India for energy efficiency and renewable energy while UK, post-2015, has focussed more in technological collaboration. More so, at a macro level, the EU supports India to help it achieve the millennium development goals and at a sectoral level, advances support in health and education sectors. Terrorism and security are two areas again where India and the EU have tremendous convergence. Both sides want that terrorism, at the international level, be tackled within the larger framework of the UN. India has been a victim of terrorism for a while, and the resurgence of the ISIS in the recent times has led to Europe becoming its latest victim. In 2016 itself, attacks in Paris, Nice, Brussels, and London have made Europe extremely vulnerable to attacks. The European security strategy document clearly outlines the threat India and the EU face at both global and regional levels. At the bilateral level too, India’s defence relations with France, the UK, and Germany have improved while Russia remains the top most players for arms supply. Both India and the EU undertakes use of multiple instruments to promote democracy and human rights, ranging from conditionalities in the Official Development Assistance (ODA) to election observer missions, both of which India refrain to use at the international level. Similarly, at the level of global governance and multilateralism, both India and EU do have convergence in acceptance of an idea of a multipolar world, but have different approaches to engagement with other states. While India emphasises national sovereignty, EU on the other hand is in favour of a rule based multilateralism model. India does not interfere in internal affairs of other hand is in favour of a rule based multilateralism model. India does not interfere in internal affairs of other nations but EU advocates rules based interference if needed.
India’s Outreach to Europe Programme The Modi government has initiated a new outreach to Europe programme in 2016. The Prime Minister visited Germany Spain, Russia and France. India has decided to present itself as an attractive partner to Europe. This will allow India to counter China which is trying to reach out Europe through its Belt and Road Initiative. India is trying to position itself as a balancer in Europe. As Trump has reduced the relevance of NATO in Europe by insisting that EU should also contribute to evolve its own security; the Europeans are looking at partners to re-write their destiny. As EU witnesses a new reordering of power https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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structure, it prevents an opportunity to India. Though China is trying to deepen its engagement with EU due to its economic heft, but, EU may not be comfortable in embracing China due to authoritarian values. At the ideological level, India is well positioned as a defender of liberal values and a counter narrative to China. In this age of uncertainty, India is constructing relations with the Middle Powers in the East and West. The world has changed in the last three centuries. The Anglo-American are looking at their navel while the Hans and the Slavs are constructing a new Eurasian coalition. It is time for India to look beyond Anglo-Americans and the Slavs and embrace Eurasian alliances.
Case Study Indian Prime Ministers Visit to Spain and Portugal-2017 Indian PM visited Spain and Portugal in 2017. The visit was a part of India’s Outreach to Europe programme. Indian PM visited Spain after a gap of nearly 30 years as the last Indian state visit happened in 1988. The main intention of the visit was to encourage the Spanish businesses to invest in flagship programmes in India. Spain is India’s seventh largest trading partner in the European Union. The two sides decided to strengthen the bilateral cooperation in security and defense related matters. The two decided to use India-Spain Business Summit as a forum to enhance bilateral economic cooperation. The two sides signed the following MoU’s:1. MOU on Technical Cooperation in Civil Aviation 2. MOU on Cooperation in organ transplantation between India’s Directorate General of Health Services and the National Transplant Organization of Spain 3. MOU on Cooperation in Cyber Security 4. MOU on Cooperation in Renewable Energy 5. Agreement for Transfer of Sentenced Persons 6. MOU between Foreign Service Institute and Diplomatic Academy of Spain 7. Agreement on visa waiver for holders of diplomatic passports The PM also visited Portugal. Till now no India PM had ever visited Portugal. India and Portugal bilateral trade has increased in the recent times. The two sides discussed the possibility of establishing India-Portugal International Start-Up hub. The two states are deepening their cooperation in science and technology and marine science and oceanography are emerging as promising areas. The two sides signed MoU’s in Space cooperation, Fiscal evasion, Nano technology, Public administration and governance reforms, culture, sports, higher education and biotechnology.
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2 CHAPTER
India and France Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical background of diplomatic relations Commercial diplomacy Nuclear and technology diplomacy Defence diplomacy Rafale diplomacy Analysis of bilateral visits
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND TILL THE COLD WAR India and France had a limited colonial relationship during the colonial times, with the French having colonial settlements in some parts of India, like Chandannagore, Yanaon, Karikal, the Coromandel and Malabar coasts and Pondicherry. However, today, it is one such country in Europe with regard to which we have a very well defined foreign policy. The relations between India and France are not just limited to economic interaction but are based on other broad areas of defence, nuclear technology, strategic partnership and global partnership. Diplomatic relations have existed since 1947. The French have been old supporters of India’s entry to the UN Security Council. What is equally interesting is that the French have been ardent promoters of a nuclear pact with India. France supports India in NSG and other export control regimes. The relations in the first phase of Cold War had created the foundation of Indo–French relations for post-Cold War period. The relations of India and France began on a cordial note after 1947. France was involved in Indo–Chinese colonial settlements in 1950s. In 1958, Charles de Gaulle in France decided to put an end to French occupation in Indo–China and by 1962, France had succeeded in its intentions. The legacy of de Gaulle is important as in 1950s, he also ended the French rule in Algeria by signing the Evian Agreement with Algerian National Liberation Front. Though France was not a follower of NAM, de Gaulle did ensure national independence and strategic autonomy in the national decision-making process, independent of the US–UK axis. De Gaulle did take progressive steps independent of the west.
Case Study Charles de Gaulle and Strategic Autonomy De Gaulle recognised China in 1964 during peak Cold War times and even went ahead to initiate a dialogue with Russia. In 1966, the French withdrew from the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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military command of NATO. In 1966, de Gaulle also visited Cambodia. His visit to Cambodia came at a time when the US was busy fighting the Vietnam War. While in Cambodia, de Gaulle asserted that a military solution is not a long-term solution in Asia and Asians in no way would submit to Pacific powers. In all the instances above, we see an aggressive assertion of the national independence of France based on the nationalistic feelings of the French. However, certain historians have maintained that French wanted to maintain a strategic autonomy from the west as the French felt insulted on not being invited to Yalta Conference. This approach of strategic autonomy by France resonated well between Nehru and de Gaulle. However, an initial hiccup in the Indo–French relationship came in 1956 Suez Canal crisis when the French, along with the British, resorted to joining Israeli-sponsored planned hostility on Egypt (for details, refer Section H, Chapter 1 in the book). India, during the Suez Canal crisis, stood in opposition to the French for the first time. After India became independent, one area of Indo–French cooperation that began on a positive note was nuclear research. In 1948, the Department of Atomic Energy in India was established. Home J. Bhabha decided to look for foreign cooperation. Amongst the foreign players, France was the first with which India opened up cooperation. In 1951, Nehru went to France. This visit was also important as it was a step towards strengthening nuclear cooperation. In 1960s, France helped India establish a heavy water production unit in Baroda. In 1979, the French again helped India with the establishment of a Fast Breeder Reactor at Kalapakkam. After India’s peaceful nuclear test in 1974, when other nations suspended nuclear commerce with India, French continued to supply India with fuel for the Tarapur plant and continued the supply till 1992. The 1962 Indo–China conflict saw the French condemning China for its military moves along the border as they chose to side with India. Indira Gandhi, during her tenure as Prime Minister of India, also visited France. Despite the bilateral level visits, the relationship maintained a low profile in the initial years. The breakthrough occurred for the first time in 1980. In 1980, the French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing saw India as a future potential power and in 1981, Giscard’s successor, President François Mitterrand, laid the foundation of a successful future relationship during the state visit of Indira Gandhi to Paris. In 1982, Mitterrand himself visited India, leading to the opening up of a new partnership. Mitterrand encouraged French firms to do business with India but the French firms had an image of Indian markets being based on excessive regulation and state control. The French firms found India a difficult place to do business and thus the governments of both countries began to undertake cultural promotion to gradually ease the process. It was decided that India would promote its culture in France, enabling the French people to know more about India, which would, in turn, open up business collaboration. The era of Rajiv Gandhi in India saw some steps towards the liberalisation of the Indian economy which was viewed very positively by the French businesses. Many French firms began establishing offices in India to prepare themselves for the future. In 1989, Mitterrand visited India again. In order to encourage French businessmen to enter Indian markets, a host of cultural interactions were envisaged. When the Cold War ended and India migrated towards an open economy, the process provided further impetus to the economic relations.
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In 1988, IK Gujral was an interim Prime Minister. He had not been able to prove his majority in the house. Jacques Chirac, despite the absence of a stable government, visited India. Later on, IK Gujral was replaced by a new government headed by Vajpayee. The first diplomatic assertion of India came at the time of the 1998 nuclear tests. After the 1998 tests by India, UNSC condemned India while the US and Japan imposed sanctions on it. But when it came to the French, they did not resort to imposition of sanctions, unlike other powers. This was viewed by India very positively and also ensured that 1998 nuclear test did not emerge as an obstacle in the Indo–French Relations. However, after the nuclear tests by India, a new thinking emerged in the foreign office of France. A small minority group did feel that India should not have crossed the threshold and undertaken the test. However, the majority asserted that it was better to accept India as a de facto nuclear weapon state and initiate cooperation at a civilian nuclear level. The French knew that any nuclear cooperation with India would be difficult till the time there were to be a consensus on ending India’s nuclear isolation. Consequently, the French adopted a waitand-watch policy with a clear tilt towards envisaging a favourable civilian cooperation at the nuclear level in future. After the US negotiated a nuclear deal in 2005 with India, Jacques Chirac decided to engage with India, and in 2006, he declared in favour of nuclear cooperation with India.
Case Study Strategic Diplomacy, India and EU France is a part of the European Union (EU) and the rules of its economic engagement are clearly defined. The EU, as previously discussed, favours deep economic cooperation with India and since 2005, India and the EU have been strategic partners. But what is to be remembered here is that the strategic Partnership between India and the EU does not mention anything about nuclear commerce. This is due to internal issues in the EU itself. Within the EU, at the strategic level, there is an absence of consensus which is not in the case of interactions at the economic level. At the strategic level, due to power differences between players of the EU, they are unable to forge consensus although it is about something that, unlike economic trade, that may touch all of them. It is due to this dichotomy that leveraging strategic autonomy and defining strategic relations with India is tricky. It is in this context that the French, in 2006, envisaged strategic nuclear cooperation with India while the EU in its strategic partnership in 2005 did not. In fact, Chirac had visited India in 1998, after the nuclear tests and went on to establish a strategic partnership with India. An important dimension that emerged in the strategic partnership agreement was of defence dialogue and defence cooperation. Since then, India and France have held regular dialogues at the defence level. The origin of this strategic partnership lies in a shared common history of the two nations and in France’s colonial involvement with India in a limited sense. Even in the post-independence period the French preferred to keep Pondicherry as an expression of the open French culture. The more important connecting factor is the shared democratic values of the nations. Jacques Chirac further visited India in 2006 and signed the nuclear cooperation. The diagram below explains other dimensions. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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The coming of Nicholas Sarkozy after Jacques Chirac had ensured the continuity in the Indo–French equations. The high-level visits continued and Sarkozy has visited India twice in his tenure from 2007 to 2012. He was the Chief Guest of the Republic Day parade in 2008 while in 2009, Manmohan Singh went to France as a Chief Guest for Bastille Day. The coming of François Hollande to power as the President of France in 2012 had seen a rise in Indo–French economic cooperation. Hollande was the Chief Guest of Republic Day of India in 2016.
Case Study Personal Relationships and Diplomatic Corps in Indo–French Relations All French Presidents, since the 1980s, have always had a positive stance on engagement with India. What is equally interesting is that the diplomatic support to these Presidents has also at times played a key role. Chirac had a personal interest in Asian and India arts and culture. A diplomat named Dominique de Villepin, in his initial career, had served in India. He later on served as a Foreign Minister and then the Prime Minister of France. Another crucial link in the Indo–French relation was played by Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, who served as diplomatic advisor to Chirac from 2002 to 2007 and had been fluent Hindi, playing an important role in Chirac’s decision-making group that took the ultimate steps to the nuclear deal.
INDIA–FRANCE COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY The commercial link between India and France had been developed to a large extent by JRD Tata. JRD Tata had a unique French Connection. He was born and brought up in France. Later on, he went on to become a bridge of modern Indo–French relations and after his death, he was buried in Paris. The institutional architecture of the commercial structure is as follows:
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Since the 1990s, various French firms have taken up investments in India. Between 2000 and 2015, France has invested around three billion dollars’ worth FDI. There are more than 1000 French firms in India with a total stock of around 17 billion dollars. Some prominent firms include Schneider, Alstom, Saint Gobain, Renault, Airbus, Michelin, Vinci, Lafarge, Sanofi Aventis, Danone and an energy firm called Total. Indian firms like Tata, Ranbaxy, and Infosys and TCS are prominent players in France. A lot of small Indian firms in automobile parts and plastics also are doing business in France. In 2016, when Hollande revisited India in January, he identified certain priority areas for commercial interaction.
Case Study India–France Cultural Connect The most important cultural interaction between India and France is the Festival de Cannes. It is a festival where a lot of Indian films are screened. In 2013, Cannes also celebrated 100 years of Indian Cinema. Due to the Cannes festival, the people-topeople connects get established. The ICCR organises festivals in France and regular cultural interactions also happen for promoting deeper understanding. Indology is an important factor in France at present and it focuses on Sanskrit, art, literature and Indian philosophy.
INDIA–FRANCE NUCLEAR AND TECHNOLOGY COOPERATION As mentioned previously that after India and the US concluded a nuclear deal, it was followed by one with France as well in 2008.
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In 2008, India and France concluded an agreement where Areva (the French firm) will work with the NPCIL as per a signed MoU to build 6 European Pressurized Reactors (EPR) for 10,000 MW electricity in Jaitapur to give nuclear fuel to India for 25 years.
Case Study Issues at the Jaitapur Plant The proposed nuclear plant is in Madban village of Ratnagiri District in Maharashtra. The plant has witnessed some protests in recent times. The area on which the plant is to be established is very close to the sea. A lot of fishermen depend upon the sea for livelihood. Once the plant is operationalised, it is expected to release a lot of hot water in the sea. The fishermen fear that this release of hot water will raise the sea temperatures, which would, in turn, affect fishing. The fish catch of Ratnagiri is exported to the EU and Japan. The release of the hot waters will affect their exports. In 2003, the region of Ratnagiri was also declared as a horticulture district and is famous for Alphonso mango. The National Environment Engineering research institute, in its report, has branded large tracts of land as barren land. This is viewed by the locals as dichotomous to the claims of government of Maharashtra. The site of Jaitapur being in a highly seismic zone adds to the existing concerns. India and France, since 1960s, have undertaken space cooperation and the ISRO has been deeply associated with the French. Since 1981, the ISRO has been using French made Arians rocket facilities in French Guiana.
Case Study India, France and the ITER Project The International Thermonuclear Experiment Reactor (ITER) project was envisaged in 1980s. A final agreement was signed in 2006 at Elysee Palace while it was enforced from 2007. The ITER site is in Aixen Provence in France where India is an https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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important partner country along with France. The ITER is environment friendly and evergreen due to from the fact that it uses nuclear fusion instead of nuclear fission. In a nuclear reactor, the atoms are split and power is generated. When we split atoms, it generates radioactive waste. The nuclear wastes have to be managed. In contrast, the ITER fuses the atoms. The fusion generates waste which is either helium or water. In the project India is contributing in is creating the largest refrigerator in the world that would work at minus 269 Celsius. The need for such a refrigerator is a part of the project. In the process of fusion at the ITER, a huge steel frame will be heated to a high temperature and then giant magnets would be used to release atoms that would fuse with the steel frame, generating more heat which would be used to rotate the turbine. The magnets are special super conducting magnets which will operate only when kept cold. The fridge would ensure the same.
INDIA–FRANCE DEFENCE RELATIONSHIP A crucial bedrock of the Indo–France relation is defence cooperation. India and France undertake large weapon procurement diplomacy. France is a leading supplier of defence equipment to India. It supplies aircrafts, helicopters, surface to air missiles and artillery.
India and France have established joint working groups on terrorism in 2001. There are more than 60 events at various levels of defence interactions between India and France.
At the defence level, what works between India and France is the level of diplomatic and political trust each has on the other. Moreover, although France has been supplying some weapons to Pakistan, it has never tried an Indo–Pak hyphenation. France has always adopted the policy of dehyphenation in defence diplomacy. France also accepts that India has a defence foreign policy of diversification and shall drive its policy as per its national interests. Russia undoubtedly remains a big supplier, but the US, Israel and France are also major partners. France has no insecurity with regard to India’s policy of diversification.
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India had signed a pact with a French firm named DCNS for technology transfer to Mazgaon Docks Limited. Mazgaon Dock Limited was designated as the builder. The pact with DCNS included Indo–French collaboration for six scorpene class submarines. A scorpene class submarine is known for its stealth features and can be used to launch guided attacks with torpedoes and tube launched anti-ship missiles. In May 2016, Kalvari became the first scorpene class submarine that went into operation. An understanding between India and France is that France would not halt spares supply and weapon supply in war, though with respect to the US and Germany, a lot of uncertainty prevails on this point. France understands India’s need to go beyond the buyer–seller relationship to the realm of strategic defence partnership. India prefers to envisage joint development and production with players to emerge as a potential partners for the future. France has accepted India’s policy of co-production and development of defence equipments.
India–France and Rafale Issues Dassault is a French firm that manufactures aircraft. Rafale is one such omnirole aircraft (MMRCA), which can perform multiple functions. It can perform nuclear deterrence, carry out in depth strikes and can also function as an anti-ship strike aircraft. The Indian Airforce (IAF) had both heavy and light fleet. In 2001, the IAF decided to procure medium fleet. A major part of the plan was to introduce MMRCA as part of the medium fleet. In 2007, the Defence Acquisition council started a bid through Request For Proposal (RFP) for 126 MMRCA aircrafts. In the contract to bid for the MMRCA, six manufacturers participated.
The IAF tested the air craft of all six participants and shortlist Rafale and Euro fighter. In the final bid in 2012, Dassault won the contract for the supply of 126 Rafale MMRCA. As per the deal, it was decided that 18 Rafale aircrafts will be purchased in a fly https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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away condition and the rest of the 108 will be manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautical Limited (HAL) in India and France would undertake a technology transfer. The negotiations with Dassault began in 2012 and got completed in 2016. In the four years’ interval, the price was being negotiated. In 2016, the earlier plan of 126 Rafale was declared economically unviable and India finally decided to take 36 Rafale jets in a fly way condition. One of the reasons for the delay in negotiations was a disagreement on assembling the aircrafts in India. The offset clauses also emerged as an irritant. As per the defence procurement policy of India, any foreign firm doing defence business with India has to bring some portion of the investment of the agreed amount of the deal back to India for investment here. The policy says that any defence deal above `300 crores by a player means the player should invest 30% of the value in India. During the negotiations, India had been pitching that France has to participate in Make in India and thereby demanded 50% offset clause and also that France establishes two bases for Rafale in India. The French were willing to participate in Make in India but alleged that the establishment of two bases and other helmet related modifications may escalate deal costs and finances. The French are also unwilling to agree to the demand for a 50% offset clause.
PRIME MINISTER’S VISIT TO PARIS—2015 In 2015, the Indian PM Narendra Modi visited Paris and concluded the final agreement for the supply of 36 Rafale jets in a fly away condition. The PM communicated economic concerns as a factor for the watering down of the deal. An agreement was signed between Larsen and Turbo, and Areva to reduce costs of Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant (JNPP). The cost reduction is to be done by increasing the localisation and local procurement of the equipment.
The PM also undertook ‘Naav Pe Charcha’ with his French counterpart on the Seine River. In all, many agreements on the core dimensions mentioned above were signed. PM addressed a gathering of the Indian diaspora at the Carrousel du Louvre. The PM gifted France a book called India and the Great War, which had been prepared and published by the MEA and included narratives about the contribution of Indian soldiers in Neuve Chappelle, France. The PM gifted Hollande a painting, titled ‘Tree of Life’.
Analysis of François Hollande’s Visit to India, January 2016 In January, 2016, François Hollande landed in India for a three-day visit and was the chief guest of Republic Day Celebrations. He also visited Chandigarh, Nagpur and Puducherry. He began his visit from Chandigarh where he attended the Indo–French Business Summit. From Chandigarh, he flew to New Delhi to take part in Republic Day Celebrations. For https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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the first time ever in modern Indian history, the foreign troops of the 35th Infantry Regiment of the 7th Armoured Brigade participated and marched with the Indian forces on Indian soil.
The French firms committed 10 billion dollars’ worth investment in India for the next five years in manufacturing and assistance in Make in India. The French Development Agency has earned 60% of its total budget for developmental projects in India. The visit consolidated the strategic partnership and discussions are underway to elevate it to the special strategic partnership level. During Hollande’s visit, an agreement was reached to cooperate on terrorism, intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism. Cyber security also emerged as a new dimension of discussion. France has been supportive of India’s International Solar Alliance of 122 nations between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn announced in the Paris–COP-21. A core component of Hollande’s visit was France committing Rupees 22000 cores for five years to the development of solar energy.
During the Hollande visit, the Rafale pact was concluded. The pricing has not been put in the pact. The most significant agreement is at the railways level where France has agreed to produce 800 electric locomotives as part of a joint venture between Indian Railways and Alstom in Bihar (Madhepura). At the space level, the two have agreed to establish a roadmap for JNPP by 2017. They have also agreed on the development of smart cities and France has committed support for the development of Chandigarh, Nagpur and Puducherry. A cultural exchange programme had been planned from 2015 to 2018 and a decision had been taken for India to organise Namaste France from September to November, 2016 and for France to organise Bonjour India in 2017. A Hindi conference had also been planned for 2016 in Paris. France has agreed to work on establishing a Delhi–Chandigarh route for trains at 200 KMPH speed corridor.
CONCLUSION OF RAFALE DEAL India on 10th April, 2015, finally announced the decision to buy 36 Rafale fighter jets which will boost for India’s air power to deter China and Pakistan. In September, 2016, India finally inked the inter government agreement (IGA) and other associated https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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commercial protocols with France. The Indian government has also cancelled the MMRCA project to acquire 126 fighter aircraft in 2015 citing Indian Air Force’s critical operational necessity and the need to cut time and costs to go for direct acquisitions of 36 Rafale aircrafts. As per the new deal with France, France will have to plough 50% of the contractual value back to India as per the offset clause.
4 Generation 4.5th Generation 5th Generation th
Technology and design is based on 1980s. They use avionics and basic radars and are used globally. Use 4 generation airframe but advanced avionics. Developed in 1990s. th
Cutting edge stealth technology based on supersonic cruise. For ex, F-22 Raptor of US.
FINAL ANALYSIS France has emerged as India’s most trusted international partner. It is visible in India’s decision to allow a French contingent of troops to take part in the Republic Day celebrations in 2016. India has shed-off its isolationism to embrace France as a trusted European partner. Paris is crucial for New Delhi for many reasons. Firstly, US, China and United Kingdom have tilted towards Pakistan while engaging with India. This is something that has not gone down well with India. France, on the other hand, has decided to focus on engaging with India without embracing Pakistan. Secondly, as EU continues to witness troubles (ranging from financial crises of 2007, recent refugee crises, ISIS attacks in Europe, Russian annexation of Crimea, BREXIT and Trump’s climate change policy), France is crucial for India to promote a balance of power in the Eurasian landmass. France has been an undiminished power in Indo-Pacific and has decided to enhance the overall capabilities of India. Thirdly, China wants to assume regional and global leadership. India prefers to engage with France to establish a more equitable world order in this new emerging concert of powers. India will continue to strengthen its ties with France in the times ahead. https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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3 CHAPTER
India and Germany Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Diplomatic history of relations and core dimensions Analysis of bilateral vists
INTRODUCTION India and Germany enjoy very advanced levels of diplomatic relations. Apart from the political visits at the PM level, Germany is also an economic gateway for India to Europe. Germany, after the World War–II, was divided into two parts—the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG, or West Germany) and the German Democratic Republic (GDR, or East Germany). India supported diplomatic relations with the FRG and stayed away from recognising the GDR. The reason India recognised the FRG was an economic one. India also felt a proximity in shared visions of nation building, which was a common goal both India and the FRG. To study Indo–German relations, we can broadly outline three phases of interaction and individually analyse each phase.
Phase 1: 1947 to 1972 The German policy of India evolved after India became independent. At the time of its independence in 1947, the task for India was to carefully choose a factor of recognition that would help decide its relations with the FRG or the GDR. As time went by, India diplomatically evolved relations with FRG and decided to put the agenda to recognise the GDR on hold. The reason was because the FRG was the only representative of the German population representing German interests legitimately. India established diplomatic relations on 7th March, 1951.
Case Study Hindu-German Conspiracy During the World War-1, Germany prepared a plot to smuggle weapons from US. Germany wanted to use those weapons against the British Raj. This was the first time when some radical sections of the Indian National Movement made a common cause with Germany through the revolutionary exiles in US and Europe. During the World War-1, Germany found allies in Ghadar party, Bengal revolutionaries, Deobandi’s and Hindu Princes. In 1915, a Provincial Government was established by the British in Kabul, Afghanistan. The government was led by Raja Mahendra Pratap Singh who was from Aligarh. Germany decided to bring 20,000 German and Turkish soldiers to Afghanistan and use Afghanistan to attack India in the North West Frontier. Though https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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the idea of fomenting trouble was naive, it still establishes a collaboration between Indian and Germans in the said period. A very interesting situation evolved over a period of time. India advocated nonalignment and initially wanted to maintain equidistance from both the FRG and the GDR. Russians mounted increasing pressure on India for the recognition of the GDR. India diplomatically did recognise the FRG. It initially moved away from its policy of advocacy for German unification. Then moved to grant de jure recognition to the GDR and finally recognised the GDR in 1972. By this kind of vacillation in the policy, it did create mistrust in its relation with the FRG but was effectively able to balance Cold War competition.
Case Study Nehruvian Imprint in India’s German Policy In order to understand why India recognised the FRG, it is important to study it through the understanding and experience of Nehru. In 1936, Nehru had visited Nazi Germany. In 1938, he visited Spain, which had also been badly affected by war. After both visits, Nehru understood that if fascism and imperialism were to continue, they will pose grave threat to international peace. This made Nehru sympathise with the FRG. He almost perceived the division of Germany as another act of partition, the way it had transpired in case of India and Pakistan, and had sympathy for Germans due to its tremendous impact on their. India and the FRG also had a similar challenge —that of nation building in a democratic state in times of the Cold War. Initially, these were the factors that shaped India’s German policy. East Berlin, which was under communist control, was a place where that Soviets had essentially established a puppet rule. Since this puppet rule imposed by the Soviet in the GDR was against the policy doctrine of self-determination that India held ideologically close, Nehru decided not to recognise the GDR. Things began to take a different turn from 1955. The FRG joined the NATO alliance of USA. In contrast, the GDR joined the Russian Warsaw Pact. India did not appreciate these moves. Nehru, in 1956, had delivered a speech in University of Hamburg, where he hinted India’s growing discomfort over military alliance and asserted that joining such alliances would, in all likelihood, prevent any possible future unification for the two sides of Germany. After independence, India was economically weak, but the FGR witnessed tremendous growth due to immense support of the West. India wanted to take assistance from the FRG for economic rebuilding of India and asked the FRG for support. Many economic firms from the FRG began to assist India in the infrastructures sector. The FRG firms played an important role in trucks, road construction and heavy industry. The Rowkela Steel Assistance, envisaged and designed in the Second Five Year Plan in India, saw German assistance (from the FRG), which also assisted India in the establishment of IIT Chennai (then Madras) and provided adequate support at the academic level.
Case Study Principle or Political Realities? https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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The relations between India and the FRG were not going to be completely smooth after, the FRG Chancellor Adenauer’s introduction of the Hallstein doctrine in 1955. Named after Walter Hallstein, it was a key doctrine in the foreign policy of West Germany which prescribed that the Federal Republic would not establish or maintain diplomatic relations with any state that recognised the German Democratic Republic (East Germany). As per the doctrine, if any state having diplomatic relations with FRG gives any recognition to GDR, then the FRG would perceive the move as an unfriendly act. This would lead to sanctions being imposed upon the signatory. India was not at all comfortable with this. But as India needed German assistance for the second five-year plan in 1957, when it witnessed a Balance of Payments crisis, it went on to grudgingly accept the doctrine.
Phase 2: 1972 to 1988 In the 1960s, certain domestic imperatives played out for India in a way as for it to recognise the GDR in 1972. In 1966, there was a change in the government in the FRG. Adenauer was replaced by a liberal Kurt Kiesinger (1966–69), followed by Willy Brandt (1969–74). In India, there was simultaneously the rise of Indira Gandhi, post Lal Bahadur Shastri. In 1967, Kiesinger visited India and advocated consensus and cooperation. He decided to tone down the rhetoric of the Hallstein doctrine, paving the way for his Ostpolitik—a policy whereby he introduced a detente in the relations between FRG and GDR. ‘Neue Ostpolitik’ finally led to the normalisation of relations between the Federal Republic of Germany and Eastern Europe, particularly the German Democratic Republic, beginning in 1969. India welcomed this policy and effectively changed stance in 1972 to recognise the GDR at the diplomatic level. In 1974, Willy Brandt was replaced by Helmut Schmidt. He adopted a pro-China and transatlantic diplomatic policy, thereby reducing relations with India. In the meantime, in 1975, in India had declared emergency. The FRG government severely condemned the emergency as an undemocratic practice which India labelled as interference in its internal affairs. All this took relations between India and the FRG to a very critical level.
Case Study India and the GDR Push It was not only Ostpolitik that brought the change in India’s policy back in 1960s in India with regard to the GDR; a new GDR friendship movement was established which exerted pressure on Indira Gandhi to recognise the GDR. It received a lot of support from Leftists. In 1967, India initially allowed a Bureau of State Trading Corporation to be established in Delhi and in 1968, the Bureau was upgraded to a General Consulate. East Berlin also made offers to India for aid which contributed to an opening up of relations between India and the GDR. In 1960s and 1970s, India also witnessed its own share of domestic crises. In 1965, there was a severe draught and in 1973, the oil crises of the Middle East also created an economic dent in India. The GDR could not be of much help economically as it itself was domestically occupied with its own concerns. In this context, India domestically exercised the option of nationalisation. This led to a lot of German firms to pull out of India. The https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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economic aid from the FRG also declined. The final blow to India–FRG relations came in 1974, when India tested the Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNE), which was severely condemned by the FRG outright. However, even though economic relations dipped after the PNE, the subsequent period saw cultural and academic relations continue.
Case Study Rise of the Drift with the FRG It was not just the Ostpolitik of Brendt that motivated India to diplomatically recognise GDR. The 1960s saw the FRG giving effect to American policy in South Asia. In the 1965 Indo–Pak war, West Germany gave arms and economic aid to Pakistan. This was a turning point for India in its relationship with the FRG. In 1971, the FRG once again supported Pakistan. India, grateful for Russian support in the 1971 war, grew closer to the GDR. After 1971 came the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with USSR and subsequent recognition to the GDR. The GDR stood by India and also became the first state in Europe to recognise Bangladesh.
Phase 3: 1988 to Present The period from 1988 onward was a historic period for Germany. German unification was on cards. In 1988, Rajiv Gandhi visited Bonn. The event of 1988 is rightly recognised as a relaunch of Indo–German relation in 1990. The high-level visits began to increase between India and Germany post German unification. In 2000, India and Germany concluded the India–Germany Agenda Partnership in the 21st Century and signs of strategic partnership began to emerge. As the Cold War ended in 1991, PV Narsimha Rao visited Germany. He participated in the festival of India. In 2000, Vajpayee went on to take the relations to a new level by signing the Strategic Partnership Agreement. The most important dimension of diplomatic relations is commercial diplomacy. Important German firms like Bosch, Chrysler, Bayer and Allianz finance are doing good business in India. Germany is today the second largest investor from EU to India. Germany as raised some factors that hinder India-Germany commercial relations:1. Corruption 2. IPR related barriers 3. Absence of legal provisions for business grievances 4. Absence of a framework for investment If Germany is important for high technology and manufacturing, Germany also recognises Indian talent in Information Technology and advertising. Germany knows that https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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India has a special significance in contemporary Germany.
Case Study Is Germany India’s Natural Ally? India feels Germany is a natural ally and India and Germany are natural partners. Normally, a natural partner is one where India feels that the state may not act as a competitor in marketplace nor in power politics but offers something which India lacks. India feels that Germany is neither a competitor in the marketplace nor in power politics. India feels that Germany has something to offer to India in its quest for geo-economy and development. Germany has surplus capital and technology while India lacks in capital and technology and has human capital worth exporting to Germany. India and Germany have only talked about defence, commerce and culture till now. But, now the two sides in the recent times have embarked upon a new dialogue of grand strategy to change balance of power. Germany is looking for stable partners in the era of uncertainty and India can be a reliable partner.
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY In 2006, India participated in the Hannover Messe, which is a technology fair where technology participation is envisaged through bilateral investments. India and Germany, in 2006, had concluded a defence cooperation agreement for joint defence training, defence exchange and defence technology transfer. In 2008, India and Germany successfully organized and concluded a bilateral naval exercise. The German counter terrorism police also provide training to National Security Guards of India and in 1994 a G–4 group was formed to reform the UN and Security Council. In 2015, India participated again in the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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Hannover Messe and pitched for Make in India.
ANALYSIS OF THIRD AND FOURTH IGC (2015, 2017) AND PM’S VISIT TO GERMANY—2015 The India–Germany Inter-Governmental Consultations (IGC) was established by the strategic Partnership Agreement in 2000. The IGC provides a broad framework for bilateral cooperation. After, the decision to establish the IGC was taken in 2000, the very first IGC followed in 2011 in New Delhi while the second IGC took place in 2013 in Berlin. In October 2015, Angela Merkel came to India to participate in the third IGC. The visit of the German Chancellor coincided with the 25th anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin wall and German Reunification was celebrated as a victory of democratic values. During the third IGC in 2015, Germany decided to add depth to strategic Partnership by enhancing cooperation on security and foreign issues.
The two sides discussed the need to establish a stable global order. The IGC made references to envisaging peaceful solutions in Syria, Ukraine, and Afghanistan. Both jointly made an assertion to envisage freedom of navigation in the high seas. Both sides also decided to jointly work with Iran, especially after the nuclear deal between the US and Iran. A decision was taken to strengthen the joint working group on terrorism and cooperate on cyber security. A new policy planning dialogue has been established between the two to promote bilateral exchanges. Germany has committed support for Make in India, Skill India mission, defence manufacturing and the SME sector. The Indian Railways has decided to explore the possibility of rail modernisation with Germany. During the German Chancellor’s visit, negotiations for a DTAA were picked up as an agenda item and a decision was taken to conclude the talks at the earliest. Germany also committed 1 billion Euros for green energy corridors in India—an investment that shall be done through the India–Germany Energy Forum. It has pledged support for solar participation for multiple projects from 2015 to 2020.
Germany has also committed to provide 360 million euro for sustainable urban development and India has decided to use the monetary support for smart city development. Germany has also committed 120 million Euros for the cleaning of the River Ganga. The most significant contribution of the German Chancellor’s visit, however, has been an attempt by Germany to assist India in the Make in India campaign. Germany had raised concerns about corruption, lack of skilled labour and absence of a single window clearance system in India. The Indian government has conveyed India’s firmness to tackle the concerns raised by Germany. The Indian PM decided to set up a Fast Track System for the German companies in the Ministry of Commerce in India by March 2016. India and Germany decided that, since Germany has competence in high https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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technology, it will collaborate with India as a lender in the Make in India movement with support at the high technology level. The German SMEs also committed investment of 3000 crore rupees under the Make in India Mittelstand initiative for settling up on manufacturing plants in India.
In April 2015, the Indian PM Narendra Modi had also visited Germany. In Germany, here iterated 3Ds as the core advantages of India (Democracy, Demography, and Demand). He invited German participation to the Make in India campaign and help transform India into a manufacturing hub. The PM sought German support in low cost manufacturing due to the availability of cheap skilled labour in India. The PM attended the Hannover fair and inaugurated the Indo–German Business Summit. At Hannover Messe, the PM reiterated that Make in India is not just a slogan but a national movement for radical transformation of India, touching every aspect of the Indian Society. He sought German cooperation and participation in manufacturing, skill development, railways, river cleaning and education. At the fourth IGC in Berlin held in May–June, 2017, the two leaders were expected to clinch a host of agreements and sign MoUs to enhance the strategic partnership between the two countries. The Indian PM had declared that the two countries would “chart out a future roadmap of cooperation with focus on trade and investment, security and counter-terrorism, innovation and science and technology, skill development, urban infrastructure, railways and civil aviation, clean energy, development cooperation, health and alternative medicine.” As of now, Germany is the largest trade partner for India in the European Union (EU) and one of the leading sources of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country. There are more than 1,600 German companies and 600 German joint ventures in India and the German economic profile supports excellence and expertise that match with India’s development priorities of Make in India, Clean India, Skill India, Digital India, Smart Cities, as per the information circulated by the Ministry of External Affairs.
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4 CHAPTER
India and Belgium Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical background of relations Areas of bilateral cooperation Analysis of bilateral visits
BASIC BACKGROUND The relations between India and Belgium go back to the ancient times when India used to import chandelier and crystals from Belgium. During the colonial era, in the 18 century, the Ostend Company came to East and South India for the purpose of trade. A lot of Indians who fought the World War–II did the same on Belgium soil. In modern times, India and Belgium developed diplomatic relations in 1948. Recently, India has attached greater importance to Belgium due to growing economic concerns. This has also manifested in greater number of visits from both sides. In 2013, for the first time, the President of India visited Belgium. During the visit, the President of India inaugurated the Europhilia, an Indian cultural festival where India showcases its culture heritage. In 2013, the fest included 450 events in around a hundred venues. It gives Europe a deep insight of cultural diversity of India. The President of India also concluded a treaty on higher education. Both sides have decided to strengthen cooperation in research. There is a growing convergence of Indian and Belgian interests to promote academic innovation in the twenty first century. th
AREAS OF COOPERATION Between Belgium and India, one of the biggest areas of cooperation is diamond trade. A lot of Indians are working in Antwerp are involved in the diamond industry. However, Indians, in recent times have made attempts to diversify. Belgium has enormous expertise in pharmacy, life sciences and infrastructure. All these three focus areas are those where India intends to explore future bilateral cooperation. India and Belgium also enjoy a unique education-based relationship and a lot of Indians prefer to go to Belgium for higher education.
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COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY The institutional architecture is as follows:
In 1997, India signed a bilateral investment treaty with Belgium known as the Luxembourg Economic Union. Since then there have been regular joint commission (JC) meets between India–Belgium Luxembourg Economic Union. The 13 JC meetings took place in Brussels while the 14 JC meeting happened in Delhi in September, 2015. In both the JC meets, the two sides decided to enhance cooperation in various areas. The diagram below clarifies this: th
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In 2015, India and Belgium signed an MOU for port officials training. As Indian businessmen are in Antwerp undertaking diamond business, Antwerp port authority will now organise training for officials of India in Mumbai. India exports gems, chemicals, base metals and textiles while it imports machinery, plastics and diamonds from Belgium. Indian companies in IT, software and telecom have presence in Belgium while Belgium firms invested in engineering, mechanical appliances and steel manufacturing are present in India.
ANALYSIS OF PM’S VISIT TO BELGIUM—2016 In March 2016, the Indian PM Narendra Modi visited Belgium for an official state visit to as well as to attend the 13 EU–India Summit hosted by Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, and Jean Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission. As the visit happened just a few days after a terror strike in Belgium, the PM paid a tribute to the terror victims. He visited the Maalbeek metro station where a bomb had exploded a week before his arrival. In the subsequent meeting in Egmont palace, the PM discussed th
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the need for a comprehensive convention on International Terrorism (CCIT). He also discussed visa related issues and cooperation in infrastructure. India and Belgium agreed on a mutual Legal Assistance Treaty and an Extradition Treaty. The PM also highlighted the opportunities for Belgian business houses in India and encouraged them to commit FDI in defence, railway and food processing sectors in India. In the meeting with the Belgium Prime Minister Charles Michel, he held discussions on enhancing cooperation in IT, ports, education and tourism. As Belgium is home to around 1500 diamond firms, India’s share is high in the diamond trade in Antwerp. Belgium and India are also both part of the Kimberly process began in 2000 as a negotiating platform of diamond producing states to ensure that rebel movements are not financed by diamond purchase. The participating nations have agreed to a certification scheme since 2003. The PM also concluded MOUs on institutionalisation of foreign policy consultation and renewable energy.
Case Study India–Belgium Cooperation In 2006, Belgium PM Guy Verhofstadt visited India and concluded an MoU on Science and Technology. This was followed in 2011 by the establishment of a Joint commission on Science and Technology agreement leading to the subsequent positing of a framework for cooperation. It is interesting to note that space cooperation between India and Belgium has been going on since 1998 and 1998 itself ISRO had signed a MoU with Tech Space Aero. In 1998, Verhart, a software firm of Belgium, signed a contract with the ISRO for launching a 100kg PSLV-C-3, which was subsequently launched later. In 2016, during the Indian PM’s visit to Belgium, he activated the optical infrared telescope in Devasthal in Nainital. This telescope was built as a with Belgium’s Advanced Mechanical and Optical system.
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5 CHAPTER
India and Switzerland Relations
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Basic background of diplomatic relations Commercial diplomacy Science and Technology diplomacy Development diplomacy India-EU FTA and Switzerland Analysis of bilateral visits
BASIC BACKGROUND India and Switzerland have a very cordial relationship ever since Indian Independence. A very important point to note is that Switzerland has been a neutral nation whenever India has had conflicts, be it in 1948, 1962, 1965, or 1971. This neutrality of Switzerland has fostered cooperation between the two nations. In 1948, India went onto open its mission in Berne. In 2008, India and Switzerland decided to take the relations to privileged partnership level.
COMMERCIAL DIPLOMACY India and Switzerland trade relations go back to 1851. The Volkart Trading Company began trading between Basel and Mumbai way back in 1851. The firm dealt in cotton. Volcafe began to trade in coffee too. In 1875, it opened an office in India. Some prominent Swiss firms trading before 1947 included Nestle, Geigy and Brown Boveri. As per the articles three and six of the Treaty of Friendship, 1948, both nations went on to advance MFN status to each other. Since the 1950s, many Swiss firms have begun to do business with India.
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India exports textiles, garments, chemicals, precious stones and shoes while it imports bullion, optical instruments, boilers, medical appliances, transport equipments and watches. A lot of Swiss firms are doing business in India today which includes Nestle, Brown Boveri Asia, Credit Swiss and Novartis. Prominent Indian firms in Switzerland include TCS, Infosys and Tech Mahindra. Both India and Switzerland have been negotiating an FTA since 2008.
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DIPLOMACY In 2003, India and Switzerland signed an agreement called Indo–Swiss Framework on Science and Technology. This led to a collaboration between the two nations in various sciences beginning from 2005. In 2008, the India–Switzerland Joint Research Programme was launched. Switzerland has a scientific advisor in the Embassy in India to promote science cooperation. India has also been associated with European organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN) since quite some time. CERN is the birthplace of World Wide Web and touch screen technologies which are used in smartphones today. India participated in the CERN meetings as an observer member. India had joined CERN in 1992 in its quest to discover universal secrets. In 2009, the Indian scientists urged the CERN to make changes in its criteria for associates’ membership. The CERN made the requisite changes in 2010. Since then, Indian scientists have been pushing for an associate membership for India. Being an associate member will open doors for Indian scientists to be trained at CERN. In March 2015, the cabinet committee on security in India granted approval for India to be an associate member at CERN. India will now contribute 50 crore rupees annually to reap associate member benefit. Now India will be able to participate in regular council sessions and Indian scientists can also be appointed members to an advisory committee in the CERN.
DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION Since 1961, the Swiss Agency for Development Corporation has provided aid to India. The aid was stopped only in 2010. Since 2010, Switzerland has continued support for the https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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global programme on climate change and local governance in initiative and networks in India. Switzerland continues to support India in sustainable development and energy efficiency initiatives. Switzerland also undertakes technology transfer for developmental projects aimed at poverty eradication in India.
INDIA, EUROPEAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT AND SWITZERLAND In 1960, Stockholm convention established the European Free Trade Agreement (EFTA). Those states who did not wish to join the European Community could join EFTA as an alternative, to promote free trade.
Since the 1990s, the EFTA nations have signed FTAs with a vast network of nations like Israel, Jordon, Singapore and South African customs union, and so on. In 2008, the EFTA nations began negotiations with India. On 10 June, 2006, the stocktaking meet of chief negotiators of India–EFTA took place and an economic partnership agreement happened in Delhi. The chief negotiates till now have held 13 rounds of negotiations with the 12 round in November, 2013. Due to the general elections in India in 2014, the negotiations were suspended for a short period. There have been some issues that are complicating the EFTA and delaying its successful conclusions. The participating European nations have been demanding more commitment from India with regard to IPR issues. The striking point is the concept of data exclusivity. A pharmacy company which is into manufacturing of drugs has to prove the efficacy of the medicine. It also has to ensure that the manufactured medicine is safe for use. To do so, a pharmacy firm undertakes clinical trials on humans and animals. The trials lead to generation of data. By generating this data and keeping it exclusive for its use, the company that has innovated the medicine can prevent its competitors from obtaining license to manufacture a low-cost version of the drug. The pharmacy company or the innovator wants to mostly maintain exclusivity of their drug. The EFTA negotiators are stuck here. Firms like Novartis have been demanding data exclusivity while India is opposed to the granting of data exclusivity to these firms. The EFTA negotiates are also asking for mutual recognition for geographical indicators which, under present Indian laws, are not permitted. The negotiations on the above explained issues are going on. th
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ANALYSIS OF PM’S VISIT TO SWITZERLAND—2016 In June 2016, Indian PM Narendra Modi went to Switzerland on a state visit.
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The Swiss government assured their support to India for the cause of Indian membership to the NSG. During the PM’s visit, he gave a patent hearing to officials of Novartis, who explained the bottlenecks in the EFTA and raised issues for higher level intellectual properties regime (IPR) protection with the PM. The PM assured higher cooperation and agreed to look into the issues on priority. Swiss pharma firms since long have been advocating strong IPR protection to enhance trade in India. Switzerland has strict banking laws where they do not entertain sharing of information about any clients and their related information. In October 2015, Swiss authorities committed to India that they will carry out independent investigation into the list of 782 names of HSBC bank clients which were leaked by a former HSBC bank employee, Hervé Falciani. The Swiss government maintains that Hervé Falciani’s disclosure of the list of 782 names is based on stolen data, and is thus a breach of Swiss laws. In December, 2015, the Swiss Parliament also gave a green signal to Automatic Information Exchange treaty under which Switzerland has to exchange financial information annually with the participating nations from 2018. During the PM’s visit, he urged Switzerland to start negotiations with India to allow India to be a participating state in automatic information exchange treaty. The then Swiss President, Johann SchneiderAmmann, had agreed to send a team of experts from Switzerland, led by the state secretary for International Financial matters, to India, for negotiations.
SWISS PRESIDENT’S VISIT TO INDIA—AUGUST, 2017 Swiss presidents have visited India on three occasions earlier—in 1998, 2003 and 2007. The present President, Doris Leuthard, was on a three-day visit to India in September, 2017, was given a ceremonial welcome at the Rashtrapati Bhavan. The Swiss President was accompanied by senior government officials and a large business delegation of leading Swiss companies. During her visit, Doris Leuthard held extensive talks, covering the entire spectrum of their bilateral relationship, including ways to boost trade and investment ties. The two heads of states also deliberated on regional and global issues of mutual interest. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj had also called on the Swiss president and discussed various bilateral issues. Switzerland has supported India in Make in India and Digital India programme. In 2018, India and Switzerland are going to celebrate the 70 Anniversary of India-Switzerland Friendship Treaty (signed in 1948). Switzerland will help India in clean energy skill training, railways, health and culture. Switzerland also th
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supports in UN Security Council and for NSG and MTCR. During the visit, the two sides concluded MoU’s on railway cooperation also.
End of Part Questions 1. India and Switzerland have transformed their diplomatic ties from being ideological supporters to economic partners today. Discuss. 2. With Russia moving closer to China and an unpredictable administration in US, India and EU have much to offer to each other. Discuss. 3. India has presented itself as a defender of global order in EU. Examine the statement in the light of India’s new outreach to Europe. 4. India must cement mutually beneficial toes with an evolving EU. Discuss how India must capitalize its diplomacy in Europe on the basis of the ongoing shifts in the global order. 5. France has emerged steadily since the end of the Cold War as India’s most trusted international partner. Discuss. 6. India-Germany relations are not just about commerce, they are about a great civilization bonding between a great Asian state and a great European power. Examine this statement analyzing the new India-Germany partnership in the 21 century based on the shared Weltanschauung. st
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PART-E
1 CHAPTER
India and West Asia Policy—Key Drivers
L EARNING OBJECTIVES After reading the chapter, the reader will be able to develop an analytical understanding on the following: Historical analysis of India’s engagement with West Asia Look West Policy India and the regional security situation in the Gulf Conclusion
HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S ENGAGEMENT WITH WEST ASIA India and West Asia (hereafter referred to as WA) have a civilizational link. India has historical ties with WA going back to the tie of Indus Valley civilization, when trade in turquoise, copper and spices were common. Indian merchants were present in WA even before the coming of Islam and the Indian merchants had trade with Mecca. Since 6 century BCE, Indians also undertook trade with Jews, who were the only community to trade along India’s west coast. The coming of the British added a new geo-strategic outlook to the Indo–West Asia trade. For the British, West Asia acted as a land bridge to Asia, Afghanistan, Europe and was strategically located with links to the Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea and access to Arabian Sea. The WA politics was influenced by Nationalism in the Arab world, western imperialism and the Zionist movement. th
As Zionism emerged, Indian national leaders showed a negative attitude towards the same as they perceived Zionism as an attempt by the Jewish people to colonise the lands of Palestine. As Indians were fighting a nationalist movement against the British, they supported the people of Palestine. Indian nationalists provided support to the Arabs in Palestine who began to organise themselves to fight British imperialism. Nehru believed that India should support Arab Palestinians because the British were exploiting Jews and Arabs by playing the traditional card of divide and rule. On 27 September 1936, a Palestinian day was also observed by the Indian National Congress (INC). Even as all these events were unfolding, the maritime relations between India and WA continued. The East India Company controlled India and the West Asian region through the Persian Gulf Residency (PGR). The PGR, till 1857, remained as subdivision of East Indian Company. After the 1857 revolt in India, the British crown assumed all responsibilities. The British Indian empire subsequently built outposts in the Gulf to safeguard marine trade. The British also supported the Jews as their intention was to continue dominance. The British th
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used the Indian Rupee in Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain. The RBI continued to use the Rupee in the above states till 1959. Under the Balfour Declaration, the British accepted the demand of the Jews to have a separate state. During the World War–I, the British and the French had concluded a Sykes–Picot Agreement, also known as the Asia Minor Agreement, in 1916 whereby they decided to divide the areas of the Middle East amongst themselves after the war. After the World War–I, under the post war settlement agreements, the mandate system was established. The British got the mandate of Iraq, Palestine and Transjordan, while the French got the mandates of Syria and Lebanon. The British handed over their mandate of Palestine to the UN after the end of World War–II. India, at the UN, during the deliberations of UN special commission on Palestine (UNSCOP), opposed the idea of partitioning Palestine and supported the minority plan. India favoured a unified Federal Arab Palestine with Jews remaining under Arab control. As Palestine was finally partitioned, a separate area for the Jews was envisaged. In May 1948, in the area designated for the Jews, the state of Israel was born. After India became independent, India followed a two-point policy in WA. It politically supported the Arabs and enhanced support to their leaders who focused on secularism and socialism. During this period, India would often criticise Israel and censure it for aggression in the Middle East. India’s non-alignment emerged as the foundation of Indo–Arab friendship. The leaders of Ba’ath party in Iraq and Nasser of Egypt supported Non-Aligned Movement. India also used NAM to support peaceful resolution of Israel– Arab conflicts. India used multiple NAM conferences to support peaceful resolution of the Palestine issue. India supported the Arabs and in 1975 supported a resolution to brand Zionism as racism. After 1967, the Nasser’s idea of Pan Arabism began to fail and it gave rise to religious extremism in WA. This gave Pakistan an opportunity to expand its influence in the region. India, however, continued to support anti-colonial and antiimperial struggles. India’s basic purpose was to not only get access to oil from the Gulf, but also reduce the influence of Pakistan in the region. The 1973 oil crisis lead to a subsequent oil boom in WA. This led to the rise of pro-West monarchs like Saudi Arabia, with exceptions remaining. The oil boom witnessed a rise in the migration of unskilled and semi-skilled worker to the Gulf. This allowed India to sustain its relations with Gulf states during the rest of the Cold War.
Throughout the Cold War, India continued its anti- Israel rhetoric while supporting the Arabs. India wanted to support Iraq even during the Iran– Iraq war in 1980s and showed reluctance in condemning Saddam Husain (due to a deep oil based relationship) in 1990s during Iraqi annexation of Kuwait. India always adopted a cautious approach of not becoming overtly judgmental about any nation or any event in the region. It preferred to https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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support regional and international consensuses on issues rather than taking up any leadership role. At the end of the Cold War, India realised the significance of remittances from the its diaspora in the Gulf. As India embraced globalisation at the end of the Cold War, the Indian Diaspora began to witness a shift. The earlier unskilled diaspora now began to be complemented by a new while collar diaspora that specialised in IT and the services sector. In the post-Cold War era, many Indian firms have established a presence in the Gulf. The Indians offer consultancy services, management services and services in IT and pharmaceutical sectors. As the Indian economy had begun to grow, and India had started buying more oil from the Gulf. Indian had also realised that the Gulf states were very strategic for India’s security needs. As India looked towards the Gulf for energy security, the Gulf states looked towards India for food security. Initially, after the end of the Cold War, India looked towards the GCC states for trade and business. The subsequent chapters in this section will demonstrate how, at present, India is seeking defense, strategic, political and security ties with the region. As the rising numbers of expats from Gulf are sending remittances to India, the Gulf has emerged as a region of key priority. Today, India has recognised that keeping the Indian diaspora in the Gulf sector is a core policy initiative, especially since 2011, the Arab states are undergoing transformation as the part of Arab Spring movement.
In 2005, Dr Manmohan Singh announced a Look West Policy (LWP) and stated that West Asia is a part of India’s extended neighbourhood. He advanced the idea of pursuing economic relations with the Gulf. The subsequent chapters will show that the period postLWP had India signing a strategic partnership agreement with Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. India also concluded a contract for LNG supply with Qatar and established an investment fund with Oman and an infrastructure fund with UAE. Another unique feature of India’s engagement with the WA in the post-Cold War era is that it has shed-off the anti-Israel rhetoric and has enhanced ties with Israel. At one time, India had even supported the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and was one of the non-Arab states in the world to recognize PLO. After the end of Cold War, in 1993, the USA organised a peace conference between the PLO and Israel at Oslo. As per the Oslo Accords, the PLO and Israel signed a peace deal. As PLO shed off its hostility towards Israel, and India rapidly took this opportunity and enhanced ties with Israel. India was therefore able to initiate enhanced engagement with Israel without diluting its Palestinian cause. India continues to support the Palestinian cause while maintaining ties with Israel. India has realised that West Asia is not a region to display power but to augment power.
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LOOK WEST POLICY The historical analysis proves that India has vital and significant interests in the Middle East. Under the LWP, Manmohan Singh had outlined the need to enhance India’s economic integration with West Asia. The region not only had a significant presence of Indian diaspora but also provided India oil for its energy security.
India’s LWP has got a new momentum with Narendra Modi’s recent visits to the region. As global energy markets witness the turmoil due to shale revolution, the Middle Eastern states are keen to explore dimensions other than oil. In order to achieve this, many Middle Eastern states initiated a Look East Policy and it is in this context that India assumes more significance. Defence has emerged as a new dimension of cooperation. Many of the Middle Eastern states have also valued India’s continued quest to support regional stability in West Asia. The subsequent chapters in this section will provide an insight about rising strategic content in the relations on the basis of deepening bilateral ties. Modi has added three new elements to the LWP of India.
Owing to a new vigour and energy attached to the Gulf, the region will now help India to approach hostilities with Pakistan more aggressively. India has successfully entered into the Pakistani space and has taken advantage of the region to promote its national interests. The new mantra of Indian policy today is to Look West and Act East.
INDIA AND THE REGIONAL SECURITY SITUATION IN THE GULF Since 2011, the region of West Asia has come under the influence of political change https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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driven by the Arab Spring movement, which has created new challenges for the region. Though India has adopted a hands-off approach with respect to the Arab Spring, it still favours democracy in the region. It is more accurate, perhaps, to suggest that India favours democratic pluralism in Arabia. Over a period of times, as the region has settled and stabilised, India has used the stability in the states to foster strategic relations. India has always maintained a policy balance in the region. The policy makers have realised that the policy balance has served Indian interests well. The Indian policymakers have striven for a fine balance between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel, while supporting Palestinians. This balancing act has given India a larger space to manoeuvre in the region with ease.
Post-9/11, the region has become volatile. The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 led to an instability in Iraq, leading, ultimately, to the rise of ISIS. The support to the rebels in Syria and the recent deployment of the ‘Mother of All Bombs’ by Trump administration in April, 2017 on ISIS fighters has aggravated the crises. Some scholars have started theorising that Syria could emerge as a new battleground of another Cold War situation. Though the core leadership of Al-Qaeda has been largely eliminated, its centre of gravity has now shifted to North Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is in this context of instability that India has realised that WA needs more care than it had so far received. The Gulf has also emerged as Indian Navy’s primary area of maritime interests. India has learned not to interfere in any state’s internal affairs and limit its influence only to achieve self-interest. India has watched the crises unfold in Syria very carefully. Syria is a secular regime has been under attack from regressive fundamentalists who are funded by the West and its allies. India has favoured UN based crisis resolution than unilateral sanctions. The case is the same with respect to Indian policy vis-à-vis Libya. At the regional level, there are quite a few areas of instability.
As the Arab Spring unfolded, the countries in the region favoured India to be proactive. Many felt that India could now assert its presence keeping in mind its rising https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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global profile. India however maintained its hands-off approach and did not use the opportunity provided by the Arab Spring to undertake promotion of democracy in region. Ever since the end of the Cold War, India has faced a dilemma. The Soviet Union collapsed, while Iraq got marginalised. As India entered unchartered water, it had to make serious policy choices. As a US-dominated global order emerged, PV Narasimha Rao got India to shift its politics. In 1992, Rao signalled the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel. India gradually began to prioritise its economic interests, using it as a tool of foreign policy. For India, economic interests matter more than political clout. Even during the recent Arab Spring movement, India has maintained that for India, economic interests are more crucial than political interests.
According to scholar Olivier Roy, who has studied the Arab Spring in detail, it has unleashed a mechanism in the Middle East where Islamism and democracy need each other to survive. He asserts that the rise of Al-Nahda in Tunisia and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt firstly proves that hardcore Islamist parties have understood that democracy is the only factor that can ensure their survival. They have understood also that only the participation of the people in governance can give them the mandate to survive. However, the experience of Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Nahda has proven that they lack the experience in governing their countries. As the Islamists have risen to power, they have adopted a moderate version of Islam and this, in future, could lead to a separation of religion from civil institutions. At the same time, a strong competition is visible between the Brotherhood, Salafis and Ulemas, ensuring none has monopoly. The Salafi trend, though not well established, poses the additional threat, along with the radicals, of a strong commitment to establish Sharia and the Caliphate. Scholar Abdul Moneim says that when dictators ruled West Asia, the Salafis remained committed to religion. Post-Arab Spring, as a weak state emerged, in some areas (like in Egypt there are 3 to 5 million Salafis), the Salafis started using political parties to fight election to garner power and then discarded democracy once in power.
Case Study India looks West and GCC looks East The core elements of India’s engagement in West Asia under Modi government are economy, counter terrorism and defence. At the global level, West Asia is witnessing oil demand form Asian markets than in Trans-Atlantic markets. Due to the fiscal stress caused to West Asian states by Trans-Atlantic markets, the West Asian states are looking at Asian markets not only for oil but also as a security guarantee in the region. This has led to a new form of defence partnership between India and Gulf. The West Asian states prefer India and China as reliable interlocutors than West. As West Asia are witnessing terrorism, they have begun to appreciate the Indian view that states that sponsor terrorism will affect regional stability. The India-UAE and India and Saudi Arabia defence diplomacy is a mutual policy based on look at each https://t.me/FreeUpscMaterials
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other policy. The failure of the West to emerge as a reliable player has led the GCC to adopt “Look at India” policy. As terrorism, instability, falling oil prices and sectarianism destabilize the Islamic world, India seems to be the best hedge for West Asia. Thus, according to Moneim, even after achieving democracy, society remains fragile. The Al-Qaeda on the other hand has seen Arab Spring as a blessed revolution as the goal of Al-Qaeda is to ultimately establish a global Islamic caliphate, which will only come to be realised if the Islamists stay in power. Al-Qaeda has perceived the Arab Spring as a long-term strategy. They feel that the confrontation between the liberals and the Islamists post Arab Spring will lead to weak governments who would not deliver, thereby leading to an extremist upsurge benefitting Al-Qaeda. The rise of sectarianism in the Middle East could endanger the stability further.
Under the Modi government, India has decided to support food security in the Middle East in return for energy security. India and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have opened up cooperation in solar technology and Gulf security.
As the region continues to be unfolded by the forces ushered in by the Arab Spring, India will face regional conflict. Keeping these concerns in mind, India is augmenting security cooperation in the region. There is possibility of India emerging as a security provider to the Gulf.
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Case Study The Great Sheikh and Shale battle and Indian Oil Diplomacy Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was formed in 1960. It has fourteen major exporters of oil it was founded in Baghdad but the headquarters are in Vienna, Austria. OPEC is an international cartel that coordinates petroleum policies of the 14 states to stabilize the oil prices and ensure supply to the consumers. India has been an old buyer of oil from OPEC states. In the recent times, US discovered shale gas. The discovery of shale was perceived by the OPEC as a threat to oil trade. In 2014, oil minister of Saudi Arabia Ali Al-Naimi advised the OPEC states to take steps to pre-empt US to use shale to grab OPEC markets of oil. So, in 2014, OPEC decided to increase production of oil. As the production of oil increased, the prices of oil be