BMI Country Risk & Industry analysts outline the key themes they believe have, and will continue to play out globally, regionally, and across core industries in 2024.
MACROECONOMIC THEMES INDUSTRY THEMES
Global Macroeconomic & Industry Key Themes 2024
We have identified ten major economic and political themes and six major industry themes that will influence the global economy and shape the way industries operate in 2024.
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Key Political & Macroeconomic Themes
Global Macro Key Themes For 2024:
Mid-Year Review
At the end of last year, we laid out 10 key macro themes which we thought would play out in 2024. While some of our views have played out better than others, we think that recent events have validated many of our key calls about economic conditions this year.
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Emerging Markets Key Themes: The Outlook for 2024
While economic activity in many emerging markets (EMs) remained robust in Q1 2024, we anticipate increasing challenges in the coming quarters due to mounting headwinds such as political risk, fluctuating commodity prices, inflationary pressures, and shifts in US policy. Additionally, economic growth trends in China, EM Europe, EM Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will significantly impact these regions.
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Regional Key Themes
Asia Pacific Europe Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia Macro Key Themes For 2024:
Mid-Year Review
The five key themes that we anticipated to unfold in the Asia-Pacific region throughout 2024 are playing out as we expected. Our predictions ranged from the region's monetary cycle to the impact of Mainland China's slowdown on Asian Markets. Halfway through the year, we assess how well our forecasts have fared and discuss our expectations for H224.
WEBINAR ARTICLE
| Key Theme | Playing Out? | Explanation |
| Mainland China's Economic Slowdown Will Weigh On Many Asian Markets | Too soon to tell | Mainland China's economy will slow further in 2024, which will impact on activity in other Asian economies. |
| Asian Central Banks Will Follow The Fed | Yes | As we predicted, with the exception of Sri Lanka, nearly all Asian central banks have Yes either hiked or held. |
| Another Challenging Year For FDI In Asia | Partially | FDI inflows to key Asian economies remain depressed as a result of high interest rates globally and waning risk appetite, and any rebound in 2024 will be muted at best. |
| High Interest Rates Not A Significant Drag On Fiscal Positions | Yes | Most Asian economies in 2024 will be sheltered from the recent rise in interest rates by the long maturity of outstanding debt. |
| Busy 2024 Elections Schedule But Policy Continuity Will Prevail | Yes | Policy continuity will broadly prevail following elections in key markets although the outcome of the plebiscite in Taiwan, China, could have major geopolitical implications while the South Korean election is likely to result in slower progress on reforms. |
| Source: BMI | ||
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Europe Macro Key Themes For 2024:
Mid-Year Review
We outlined seven key themes in November 2023 that we anticipated would manifest in Europe throughout 2024. Although some of these themes have yet to fully unfold, data and events from the first half of the year indicate that most are progressing as expected. The table below highlights all the themes, and we take this opportunity to address some of the most significant ones.
WEBINAR ARTICLE
| Key Theme | Playing Out? | Explanation |
| Modest Growth In Most European Markets | Partially | Given that we no longer expect the US to fall into recession in 2024, an improved global growth outlook has lent some tailwind to Europe's economic prospects. |
| Tighter Financial Conditions Despite Nominal Policy Rate Falls | Partially | Financial conditions are tightening in most places but a high propensity of fixed rate debt and decent nominal income growth makes some key eurozone markets outliers |
| Labour Market Tightness To Hold Back Investments As Corporate Profits Suffer | Yes | Labour hoarding has continued with unemployment rates remaining contained while hours worked have fallen. This is beginning to hit profit margins, although the transmission to investments is harder to judge |
| Return Of Stability And Growth Pact Will Lead To Fiscal Retrenchment | Yes | 2024 has seen the EU adopt an amended fiscal framework that preserves the bloc's 3% deficit and 60% debt limits, while governments have begun to scale back expenditure plans compared to previous years |
| Geopolitical Tensions And External Demand Slowing Will Weigh Down Trade | Yes | Underwhelming European demand has weighed on export growth, leading to a falling share of intra-EU exports as a share of EU exports. Meanwhile, the pivot in imports from Russia remains in place, while imports from Mainland China are on a downtrend. |
| EU Parliamentary Elections To Derail Green Policies | Yes | In response to pressures from farmers and declining support in polls, the European Commission diluted some of its most ambitious climate policies in the first half of 2024. Going forward, we expect competitiveness to remain at the core of the EU’s approach to green policy. |
| Russia-Ukraine War To Enter Into Static Stalemate, With Russia Remaining Sanctioned | Yes | With the Ukraine gaining US military aid in April, Russia's window of opportunity to gain grounds in the war has diminished |
| Source: BMI | ||
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Latin America Macro Key Themes For 2024:
Mid-Year Review
In December 2023, we highlighted five key themes that we expected would shape events in Latin America in 2024. Halfway through the year, we revisit these themes to see how they are playing out thus far.
WEBINARARTICLE
| Key Theme | Playing Out? | Explanation |
| Regional Growth Will Slow, But Inconsistently | Partially | While the regional GDP-weighted growth rate is indeed slowing this year from 2.1% in 2023, the 2024 forecast stands at 1.7%, instead of 1.5% previously, implying that the slowdown will be more modest. |
| Busy Elections Calendar, But Incumbents Have Staying Power | Yes | In all four elections that we mentioned in our 2024 Key Themes piece that have taken place already, the incumbent won in three, except in Panama where we correctly projected that the very unpopular government to lose to an opposition party. |
| Regional Rate Cuts Started Earlier, But Will Not Necessarily End Earlier | Partially | Central banks across our five major markets have embarked on rate cuts, due to a broad-based easing of inflationary pressures, in the first half of the year. We maintain that while rates are likely to come down steadily through 2024, the pace will be gradual and prone to interruption. |
| Fiscal Challenges To Persist | Yes | The region ended 2023 with a deeper fiscal deficit of 5.4% of GDP and is expected to see a correspondingly wide deficit of 5.0% this year. Apart from wider deficits the year before, we have also seen fiscal pressures become more pronounced in Colombia and Brazil, in addition to Ecuador and Panama. |
| Argentina Takes A Chance On 'Chainsaw Plan' | Yes | Broadly, Milei has faced significant gridlock in the fractured congress, as expected. That said, we highlight that the Milei government has moved faster and more aggressively in implementing some of its reforms, which has led to more pronounced impacts on the economy. |
| Source: BMI | ||
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BMI Middle East And North Africa Key Themes For 2024:
Mid-Year Review
At the end of 2023, we highlighted five key themes that we expected would play out in the Middle East & North Africa in 2024. Two out of the five key themes are so far unfolding in line with our expectations. The remaining three have partially played out. In both cases, this was as a result of key risks that we highlighted at the time. First, the Israel-Hamas war and related clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in south Lebanon extended beyond Q1 2024. Second, OPEC+ extended the oil supply cuts beyond our initial expectations of July 2024.
WEBINAR ARTICLE
| Key Theme | Playing Out? | Explanation |
| GCC And Post War Recovery Will Drive Faster Growth In MENA | Partially | Whereas stronger GCC growth will still drive an uptick in MENA growth this year despite the extension of OPEC+ supply cuts, the acceleration will be less pronounced. This is largely because the prolonged Israel-Hamas war will push back post-war recovery, causing the Levantine growth to decelerate sharply. |
| Decelerating Inflation, Yet Diverging Monetary Policy | Partially | Inflation has been broadly on a decelerating trend across the region. While we have revised some of our policy rate forecasts, we still expect some divergence in monetary policy, mainly between Egypt which has already raised interest rates, Tunisia which is holding rates, and the GCC, Morocco and Israel which will be engaging in rate cuts. |
| Deteriorating External Positions, But Mixed Currency Outlook | Yes | Extension of oil supply cuts reinforce our view of smaller current account surpluses in MENA hydrocarbon exporters, while Q1 2024 trade data, weak external demand and disruptions to shipping activity point to wider external deficits in hydrocarbon importers. Despite year-to-date across the board depreciation in non-pegged MENA currencies, we maintain our view of mixed currencies trajectory in H2 2024. |
| Weaker Fiscal Positions, Except For GCC | Partially | While our view of wider fiscal deficit and higher debt pressures in oil importers holds, we now also foresee a larger collective deficit in oil exports this year due to downward fiscal revisions to Saudi Arabia and Iraq. |
| Higher For Longer Geopolitical Risk | Yes | Geopolitical risks have remained elevated since the beginning of the year given the Israel-Hamas war. Israel has faced both economic and political repercussions, and has seen a reversal in some of its progress in recent years to integrate in the region. The US has increased its military footprint in the region while Iran has continued to support its proxies, which have escalated their attacks in recent months. |
| Source: BMI | ||
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Sub-Saharan Africa Key Themes For 2024:
Mid-Year Review
At the end of last year, we highlighted six key themes that we thought would play out in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2024. Halfway through the year, we assess how well our predictions have fared thus far and discuss our expectations for H224.
WEBINAR ARTICLE
| Key Theme | Playing Out? | Explanation |
| Headline Growth To Accelerate But Underlying Challenges Persist | Too Soon To Tell | Due to the low number of GDP outturns, it is too soon to determine if this prediction is materialising. Economic growth in South Africa and Nigeria softened in Q1, but Purchasing Managers' Index readings have been improving across SSA, pointing to stronger private sector activity ahead. In addition, the disinflation trend across the region will support domestic demand and economic growth over 2024. |
| Monetary Easing Will Be Cautious Given Persistent Inflation Risks | Partially | Although inflation has been on a moderating trend in the majority of SSA economies, it remains above historical norms. As such, SSA central banks have adopted a careful approach in H1 2024, with only the central banks of Ghana and Mozambique having reduced their benchmark interest rates. In fact, policymakers in Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia, Angola, and Uganda have raised their key rates in H1. |
| Fiscal Pressures Will Persist Across SSA Amid Elevated Debt-Servicing Costs | Partially | As we had predicted, fiscal pressures due to high interest rates, election spending, and wage demands have persisted in H1 2024. That said, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Kenya have made a comeback to international capital markets faster than we had anticipated. |
| Weaker External Positions Will Sustain Pressure On SSA Exchange Rates | Yes | Exchange rates across Sub-Saharan Africa have exhibited considerable weakness in H1 2024 as a result of limited risk appetite among international investors, higher-for-longer interest rates in the US, a subsequent strong dollar, and weak capital inflows. |
| Incumbents In Some Major Markets Will Come Under Pressure In 2024 Elections | Yes | This theme has played out, as evidenced by the African National Congress's loss of its parliamentary majority in South Africa, the opposition's victory in Senegal, and the ruling party's trailing position in Ghana's opinion polls. |
| Security Risks Will Rise As Peacekeeping Missions Draw Down | Yes | Violence in the Sahel and DRC remains widespread as peacekeeping missions are winding down. In the Sahel, fatalities from violent incidents have increased markedly in H1 2024, while in the DRC the expansion of M23 has increased tensions and risks of conflict with Rwanda. |
| Source: BMI | ||
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Cedric Chehab
Chief Economist
Cedric Chehab is the Chief Economist at BMI, where he oversees the global macroeconomic strategy and country risk analysis. Based in Singapore, Cedric previously served as Global Head of Country Risk, ensuring the coherence of global macro and country risk strategy. His earlier roles at BMI include Head of Asia Research, responsible for all Asia-based country risk analysis and industry research, and Head of Americas Research. From 2008 to 2010, Cedric worked in London as Head of Commodities Research and Strategy. He has also accumulated experience in management consulting at Accenture. Cedric holds an MSc in Economic History from the London School of Economics and a BA in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from the University of Essex.
John Ashbourne
Global Economist, Emerging Markets
John Ashbourne is BMI’s most senior emerging markets economist. He was previously a senior economist at Capital Economics. John holds degrees from the University of Toronto and the London School of Economics.
Anwita Basu
Head of Europe Country Risk
Anwita Basu joined BMI in 2019 as the Head of the Asia Country Risk team. Since November 2021 she has been the Head of Europe Country Risk. She was formerly with the Economist Intelligence Unit where she was a senior Asia analyst and the country risk services manager for the region. Before joining the Economist Group she worked as an economist at Trusted Sources (now known as TS Lombard). Over the years she has extensively covered some of the major emerging markets including Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and will now focus her efforts on Turkiye and Central Asia. Anwita has a master’s degree in Economics from the University of Warwick where she specialized in Labor Economics and Public Policy.
Peter Dixon
Head of EMEA Country Risk
Peter Dixon is Head of EMEA Country Risk for BMI where his role is to coordinate a team of analysts covering the various regions and to conduct primary research on a range of topics. Prior to assuming this position in July 2022, he spent more than 20 years working as a global sell-side economist in the City, providing research and commentary in support of an institutional client business. Peter has extensive experience of client engagement and occupies a prominent role as a media commentator on economic and financial market issues.
Daniele Fraietta
Global DM Economist
Prior to joining BMI, Daniele Fraietta worked for almost seven years as a Country Risk Analyst at Dun and Bradstreet, covering Southern European economies. He has an MSc in Economics and an MBA from the Politecnico di Milano and a Masters in International Business from the Florida International University's Chapman College of Business. His main areas of expertise are macroeconomic analysis and forecasting and econometrics.
Yoel Sano
Head of Political & Security Risk
Yoel Sano, Director, Head of Geopolitical Risk, leads research for BMI Politics, BMI’s latest political risk service underpinned by GeoQuant. Prior to assuming this role in 2009, he was Head of Asia Country Risk at BMI, having joined the company in 2003. He specializes in international security risks, great power competition, domestic political and social transformation, and long-term forecasting. Yoel has a BA in Geography from Oxford University, and an MA in Theory and History of International Relations from the London School of Economics.
Jane Morley
Head of SSA Country Risk
Jane Morley is Head of the Sub-Saharan Africa Risk team at BMI, based in London. She has more than 25 years of experience covering political, macroeconomic and operating risk in individual African markets, as well as broader pan-African developments. Jane joined BMI in 2018. Prior to this she worked at the Economist Intelligence Unit, focusing on a range of African economies including Angola, Ethiopia and Zimbabwe. She has a degree in English Literature from the University of London.
Ramona Moubarak
Head of MENA Country Risk & Global Banking
Ramona Moubarak joined BMI in June 2021 to lead the Middle East and North Africa Country Risk team, based in London. In January 2023, Ramona was appointed Head of Banking to further develop the product. She has spent over a decade building her experience in political, macroeconomic and financial risk assessments for emerging markets. Prior to joining BMI, Ramona led a team of analysts who covered over 40 emerging markets for Lebanon’s Byblos Bank. A native Arabic speaker, Ramona is also fluent in French and English. She holds a Master’s degree in Financial Economics from the American University of Beirut and a Bachelor degree in Economic Sciences from Université Saint-Joseph.
Mark Rosenberg, PhD
Co-Head of GeoQuant
Mark Rosenberg, PhD, is Founder and Co-Head of GeoQuant, which was acquired by Fitch Group in 2022 and is now part of BMI. He received his PhD from UC Berkeley, where he was a National Science Foundation (NSF) Fellow and specialized in game theory and African politics. After Berkeley, he joined the political risk firm Eurasia Group (EG), where he was the Director of Africa, Comparative Analytics and Research Management. Mark also led product development at EG; he created the firm’s Political Trajectories and helped create its Political Risk Country Portfolio asset allocation model. Prior to this, Mark worked at the global human rights organization Freedom House, where he helped build their highly regarded democracy index and edited the flagship Freedom in the World publication. Mark teaches political risk analysis as an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business and has written and spoken widely on country and geopolitical risks. He was born in Johannesburg, South Africa and lives in Los Angeles with his family.
Darren Tay
Head of Asia Country Risk
Darren Tay is BMI’s Head of Asia Country Risk and has been analysing developed, emerging and frontier economies since joining the industry in 2018, including the two largest, China and Japan. He now applies that experience guiding a team of country risk analysts in covering the region, while continuing to closely monitor China. He was previously a Senior Country Risk Analyst at BMI leading the company’s China service and Japan Economist at Capital Economics. Darren graduated Summa Cum Laude with a BSc (Economics) and a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from the Singapore Management University.
Conor Beakey
Head of Latin America Country Risk
Conor Beakey is based in the New York office and heads up the BMI Americas Country Risk Team, while also contributing to our US coverage. Prior to joining BMI, Conor worked as an economist at Allied Irish Bank and as a research intern in the Irish Revenue Commissioners. He holds a BA degree in Economics from Trinity College Dublin and an MSc in Applied Economics from University College Dublin.
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Key Industry Themes
The Year Ahead: Global Industries
Outlook 2024 - Mid-Year Update
In our comprehensive mid-year update, we assess the performance of our key themes across diverse industries such as Tourism, Tech, Commodities, and Oil & Gas, all of which have seen their views play out successfully. Meanwhile, sectors such as Logistics & Freight and Food & Drink face unique challenges, influenced heavily by geopolitical risks and market dynamics.
SPECIAL REPORT Article
2024 Key Themes by Industry
- Agribusiness
- Autos
- Commodities
- Healthcare
- Infrastructure
- Metals
- Mining
- Pharmaceuticals
- Power
- Renewables
ARTICLE
Pharmaceuticals Key Themes For 2024
Mid-Year Update
In 2024, global pharmaceuticals expenditure growth continues to be driven by North America and Asia-Pacific, while Europe and SSA will experience a slowdown, and Latin America and the MENA will post stronger growth.
Ongoing cost containment and heightened policy risks across developed markets will pressure drugmakers to adapt to shifting market dynamics.
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ARTICLE
Healthcare Key Themes For 2024
Mid-Year Update
Health expenditure growth in developed markets and major emerging markets is still expected to slow slightly in 2024. Throughout the remainder of the year, healthcare topics are likely to have reduced prominence in elections and political events due to more pressing issues and a decrease in challenges related to Covid-19. As anticipated, many government health budgets for 2024/25 are allocating new funds for health personnel, elderly care, and mental health.
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ARTICLE
Mid-Year Update
Global consumer spending growth is projected to remain flat in real terms throughout 2024, as households adjust to the economic environment following the inflationary shock. Although inflation rates are moderating, they remain persistently high in many markets. Central banks' interest rate hikes are gradually slowing inflation, which is expected to average 5% year-over-year in 2024 - down from previous years but still above pre-Covid levels. This sustained inflation is leading to continued consumer price sensitivity.
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ARTICLE
Mid-Year Update
Mass grocery retailers' loyalty programs are evolving to offer more personalized rewards and partnerships, though potential new regulations could impact their future strategies. Meanwhile, merger and acquisition activity in the food and drink sector remains robust and is expected to grow, driven by favorable economic conditions and a focus on essential consumer categories. Additionally, the food and drinks industry is adapting to the influence of GLP-1 agonist diabetes drugs, increasingly focusing on health-conscious product offerings.
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ARTICLE
Autos Key Themes For 2024
Mid-Year Update
The key themes identified for the Autos sector in 2024 have a common element in that industry players will be facing a number of challenges and the individual trends are mostly based on how they address them. From a weaker sales market and the rising cost of EV adoption to finding manufacturing processes to optimise efficiency, companies will be faced with the challenges of an evolving industry.
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ARTICLE
Technology Key Themes For 2024
Mid-Year Update
At the midpoint of 2024, we reassess the performance of our Technology Key Themes for 2024. We note that investment across the digital infrastructure stack remains strong, with data centres, local access and backbone fibre and 5G platforms attracting the most attention across all jurisdictions; however, there has been a resurgence in investment in connectivity satellites, too, with geopolitical implications.
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Michelle Karavias
Managing Director, Industry Research
Michelle heads BMI’s industry research which spans more than 20 sectors. Michelle joined BMI in 2008, specialising in energy and infrastructure. In 2011 she relocated to New York to establish BMI’s Americas research team. Now based in London, Michelle drives BMI’s ‘connected thinking’ approach to analysing the impact of cross-sector themes such as energy transition and digital transformation. Michelle holds a bachelor’s 1st Class Honours degree in American Studies from the University of Nottingham, with International Study at the University of Toronto in Canada.
Anna-Marie Baisden
Head of Autos and Infrastructure Research
Anna-Marie Baisden has headed BMI’s Automotive research team since 2005, extensively covering the global autos market. Since late 2021 she has also taken over management of the Infrastructure team, underlining the ‘Connected Thinking’ approach to key areas of research such as the electrification of vehicles and the associated infrastructure. She is responsible for the production and coordination of content and analyst development across the three teams. Anna-Marie has contributed op-ed pieces for leading industry publications such as Automotive World, and is regularly called on for her expertise on major news programs such as the BBC World Business Report and CNBC.
Michelle Berman
Advisory Project Director
Michelle Berman is a Project Director within BMI’s Advisory team and has worked as a Head of Research across multiple industries since joining BMI in 2007. Her most recent role was as Head of Consumer, Food & Drink and Tourism Industry Research, where she worked directly with clients in these industries to run opportunity assessment and risk planning. Prior to this role Michelle headed up the Operational Risk division, which focused on offering clients insight into market entry and expansion strategy within emerging and frontier markets. Michelle has also held the positions of Head of Logistics Industry Research and Senior Analyst in the Construction and Infrastructure Industry Research team.
Sabrin Chowdhury
Director, Head of Commodities Analysis
Sabrin leads BMI's Commodity analysis and price forecasting, managing a global team that covers 24 commodities across energy, industrial and precious metals, soft commodities, and grains. Sabrin joined BMI in 2015 and regularly engages with clients hailing from banks, asset management firms, consultancies, government agencies and corporations. Sabrin previously worked at ING Bank and holds a Master’s Degree with distinction in Financial Forecasting and Investment from the University of Glasgow. She completed her Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the National University of Singapore.
Jamie Davies
Head of Pharmaceuticals, Healthcare & Medical Devices
Based in London, Jamie leads a global team of analysts in identifying market entry and expansion opportunities, assessing operational risks and analyzing corporate growth strategies. Prior to joining BMI in 2006, Jamie wrote for Thomson Scientific and tracked investigational drugs through clinical trials at PharmaProjects. Jamie graduated from King’s College, London with a degree in Pharmacology with Management and received an MBA from the Open University in 2019.
Joseph Gatdula
Head of Oil & Gas Research
Joseph joined BMI in September 2018 as Head of Oil & Gas Analysis and is based in the London office. He oversees a number of key areas including analysis, content, and product development. Under his guidance, the research team heavily focus on the supply and demand of energy and their effects on global oil and gas prices. Supported by a diverse team of analysts, he works closely with clients to ensure mutual success.
Andrew Kitson
Head of Technology Industry Research
Andrew Kitson has been with BMI for 15 years, after also working as a Senior Analyst at Juniper Research and Principal Analyst at International Telecommunications Intelligence. The latter was acquired by Fitch Solutions in 2007. Andrew has been a telecoms analyst since 1985.
As well as managing the full portfolio of BMI’s telecoms, IT and consumer electronics practice, Andrew regularly contributes to custom research projects with BMI’s clients. Most recently he worked on research for a European technology certification and testing agency, arguing the case for digital transformation project types and models in the GCC region.
Thomas van Lanschot
Head of Power & Energy Transition Research
Dr. Thomas van Lanschot is BMI’s Head of Power & Energy Transition Research. Utilizing over a decade of experience in the field he has worked for several years at BMI in London. He joined BMI after completing a PhD in energy systems within an energy policy and economics think tank and has used his broader background in energy research, including several years in consultancy and training in technical analysis, to build out new energy research themes across the company.
Chiedza Madzima
Head of Operational Risk Research
Chiedza leads Operational Risk and South Africa Research team at BMI. Her areas of specialisation are in economics, business environment risk analysis, policy risk and macro data analysis particularly for Emerging Markets. Chiedza holds two degrees from the University of Pretoria in South Africa: BSc Actuarial Mathematics and Financial Engineering; BCom Business Management and Economics. She has featured in various regional and global news publications, including Bloomberg, Quartz Africa, News24 and Africa Business Magazine.
ARTICLE
Infrastructure 2024 Key Themes
Mid-Year Update
At mid-year, we reassess our 2024 Infrastructure Key Themes from December 2023. Our views have largely played out and remain relevant, with moderate global growth amid persistent tight monetary policy. Political risk stays crucial due to numerous 2024 elections, influencing infrastructure outlooks in markets like India and South Africa, where election outcomes have impacted policymaking certainty and direction.
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ARTICLE
Mid-Year Update
All of our views are playing out as expected. The geopolitical risk premium for oil and gas has diminished over the last several months, with soft demand playing a factor in easing but still elevated prices. The OPEC+ decision to begin tapering voluntary production cuts in September 2024 highlights the group’s move to start bringing production back into the market in a structured and measured way. Elections in key markets remain a potential source of risk for the oil and gas industry and decarbonisation efforts, with uncertainty surrounding potential policy changes.
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ARTICLE
Mid-Year Update
Renewables continue to feature prominently in government strategies, industrial policies, investor interest and power sector development over the first half of 2024. We have witnessed all our Key Themes playing out, though grid investment and alleviating electricity prices have been slightly slower than expected. We maintain out Key Themes for the rest of the year, with concerns of polarising trade policies, solar's lead in front of other renewable power types and energy security to remain at the forefront of power sector development.
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From the Caribbean to China,
from Healthcare to Infrastructure
Global, regional, and country level analysis and data for more than 20 industries and 35 commodities,
incorporating the impact of geopolitical risks, latest industry trends and new technologies.
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ARTICLE
Commodity Prices Key Themes For 2024
Mid-Year Update
Commodities have performed well in the first half of 2024, with all sub-asset classes now (July 10 2024) at higher price levels than at the end of 2023 (December 29 2023), with the exception of agricultural grains. Gold has outperformed all sub-asset classes in the year to date, driven by expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate cut and heightened geopolitical risks.
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ARTICLE
Mid-Year Update
Our key view on metal prices has largely played out, with the performance of some metals surpassing our expectations due to fundamentals that proved more robust than we anticipated at the end of last year. We had expected that in 2024 we would see only slight improvement to metal prices as weak demand from Mainland China and limited growth outlook across major markets continue to place a cap on metal prices. While base metals have largely experienced gains since the start of the year, with copper and tin leading the pack, ferrous metals, notably iron ore, remain under pressure, weighted down by continued weakness in the Chinese property sector.
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ARTICLE
Agribusiness Key Themes For 2024
Mid-Year Update
We outlined six key themes that we believed would shape agricultural markets in 2024. Overall , the two themes focused on agricultural commodity prices – one tied to grains prices, and one tied to softs prices – have performed well, with the grains market continuing to exhibit weakness compared to 2023 and price development in softs market dictated by the now-dissipated El Niño event. The picture is more mixed in regard to our sector-focused themes but all four will remain in play over the second half of 2024.
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